[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Royals Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Kansas City Royals Preview
What a difference one month makes. The Royals entered last September with 19
losses in their previous 23 games. Players were increasingly mutinous under
first-year manager Trey Hillman. A fifth straight last-place finish seemed
certain, and a fifth 100-loss season in seven years appeared well within reach.
General manager Dayton Moore responded with a bristling rebuke to players in a
private clubhouse meeting during which he backed Hillman in unshakable terms.
Moore then told the public of his intention to make sweeping roster changes
before the 2009 season. So what happened? The team went 18–8 in September —
the Royals’ most wins in a month since July 1994. They avoided last place,
thanks to Detroit, by one game. And just that quickly, optimism sprouted that,
just maybe, Moore had this club on the right track. Owner David Glass
authorized a payroll bump of more than 20 percent to a franchise-record
$70-plus million. And while Moore didn’t exactly overhaul the roster, he did
use the added cash to make some major additions — most notably in acquiring
first baseman Mike Jacobs and outfielder Coco Crisp to bolster a run-starved
lineup. The result is the Royals now believe they can contend in the AL
Central. Anything short of .500 will viewed throughout the organization as a
disappointment. September did all that.
Rotation
Kyle Davies embodied the club’s strong finish by going 4–1 with a 2.27 ERA in
September. The offseason posed no bigger question than whether his closing
kick, like that of the Royals, was a mirage. If not, if Davies has finally
found a way to reach his potential, then the Royals suddenly have as solid a
front three as any team in the division — and perhaps in the American League.
Gil Meche and Zack Greinke established themselves last year as a formidable
one-two, and both should benefit this season if the offense perks up as hoped.
The desire for a lefty led the Royals to overpay for free agent Horacio
Ramirez, although he could get squeezed into the bullpen if Brian Bannister and
Luke Hochevar produce strong springs. More likely, either Bannister or Hochevar
will open the season in the minors.
Bullpen
Moore needed to rebuild this unit after dealing away Leo Nuñez and Ramon
Ramirez in offense-boosting trades for Jacobs and Crisp. Then again, Joakim
Soria is still around, and it’s a lot easier putting together a bullpen when
you already have an All-Star closer. Soria was marvelous a year ago in notching
42 saves in 45 opportunities while compiling a 1.60 ERA. The Royals really
wanted to add a power righthander to compensate for losing Nuñez and Ramirez,
which is why they shelled out $9.25 million to sign Kyle Farnsworth for two
years. Maybe it’ll work out. The key, however — beyond a healthy Soria —
could hinge on two lefties: Can Ron Mahay bounce back from an injured left
foot — he was en route to the best season of his 12-year career before
suffering plantar fasciitis in early August — and can John Bale stay healthy
and deliver the overpowering stuff he flashed in compiling 10 scoreless
September appearances?
Middle Infield
The one real offseason whiff was Moore’s inability to acquire a productive
veteran middle infielder to replace departed second baseman Mark Grudzielanek.
The Royals eventually signed veteran utilityman Willie Bloomquist after
deciding they lacked the available payroll to do more than take a hard look at
shortstop Rafael Furcal. So it appears that rookie sensation Mike Aviles will
remain at shortstop instead of shifting to second. Aviles impersonated Texas
star Michael Young for four months last season after arriving from the minors —
batting .325 with some pop while playing solid defense. Whether Aviles can
maintain that high standard is an open question. Switch-hitter Alberto Callaspo
will battle Bloomquist for the starting job at second. Callaspo batted .305 in
74 games but has little speed, no pop and limited range.
Corners
Third baseman Alex Gordon raised his production last season from his rookie
year, but he’s still a long way from becoming the impact bat the Royals
envision. The tools are there, though. Maybe this is the year. First base is
anyone’s guess. The safe money is that Jacobs and Billy Butler will both get
regular duty with one at first and the other at DH. Since both are substandard
defensively, that seems to create a job for veteran Ross Gload as a caddy. OK
so far, but what happens to Ryan Shealy, who had a hot September and is out of
options? And if displaced outfielder Mark Teahen doesn’t play at first, then
he doesn’t have a regular job.
Outfield
Acquiring Crisp from Boston accomplishes several goals. It adds a superb
defensive player with the speed necessary to patrol center field at spacious
Kauffman Stadium. It also adds a switch-hitter who can bat leadoff. Best of
all, perhaps, Crisp arrives as a motivated player after three somewhat
disappointing years in Boston. Former center fielder David DeJesus shifts to
left, where club officials believe he is a more natural fit, while dropping
lower in the order. DeJesus isn’t a classic No. 3 hitter, but he is coming off
his best offensive season and owns a .317 career average with runners in
scoring position. Right fielder José Guillen can be expected to stir the pot,
as always, but he led the club last season with 20 homers and 97 RBIs despite
battling a series of small injuries.
Catching
Veteran Miguel Olivo blasted Hillman in late August and vowed not to trigger
his portion of a mutual option to return unless he was guaranteed the No. 1
catching job. Well, Olivo is back and, indeed, he is the starter as camp opens.
That leaves John Buck as the clear backup at this point after being the starter
since his arrival in a June 2004 trade with Houston. Either guy could become
expendable if Brayan Peña, who is out of options, has a strong camp.
DH/Bench
Teahen lost his outfield job when the Royals acquired Crisp. And while club
officials insist he’ll get plenty of playing time, it’s hard to see where —
barring a trade or an injury. Teahen can play both outfield corners along with
third and first. Gload has the protection of a $1.9 million contract, while
Esteban German and/or the Callaspo/Bloomquist loser will provide utility
support. Tony Peña opened last season as the starting shortstop but, after
batting just .169, faces long odds just to hold onto a roster spot. Mitch Maier
is the top candidate if the club needs a fifth outfielder.
Management
Moore has the Royals pointed in the right direction as he enters his third full
season. Look for his success in convincing the Glass family to boost spending
on scouting and player development to begin paying dividends within the next
year. Hillman shook up his staff after a rocky first year exposed his lack of
previous exposure to the big leagues. Adding former Toronto manager John
Gibbons as bench coach should help. Hillman also benefits from having Bob
McClure, who is quickly gaining a reputation as one of the game’s better
pitching coaches.
Final Analysis
The Royals are, finally, good enough to dream. All other AL Central teams are
flawed, and if the Royals catch a few breaks, they could find themselves
playing meaningful games in September. That’s the high end, of course. But
reaching .500 for only the second time in 15 years seems an attainable goal.
Statistician
.325 >> Average posted by Mike Aviles, which was the highest in franchise
history for a rookie with at least 400 at-bats.
5 >> Losses to Cleveland lefthander Cliff Lee, which matched a franchise
record for losses in a season to one pitcher.
36 >> Victories last season in which opponents started a left-handed pitcher,
which was more than any other team and came despite K.C.’s problems
against Lee.
9 >> Series sweeps recorded last year by the Royals after having only two in
2007.
13 >> Victories last season in interleague play, which was the most in
franchise history.
42 >> Saves recorded by Joakim Soria, which ranked second in the American
League last season and fourth on the Royals’ single-season list.
75 >> Victories last season after averaging fewer than 62 over the previous
four years.
97 >> Club-leading number of RBIs by José Guillen, which was the highest
total by a Royal since Carlos Beltran had 100 in 2003.
Difference Maker
Coco Crisp’s once-bright future dimmed considerably over the last three
seasons in Boston until he was deemed expendable, largely through the emergence
of Jacoby Ellsbury, for a setup reliever. But the Royals point to Crisp’s
strong second half last season — he batted .315 with a .392 on-base percentage
in 47 games after the break — as an indication that he’s back on the right
track. If nothing else, his defensive skills as a center fielder permit the
Royals to shift David DeJesus to left on a full-time basis. This much seems
certain: Crisp comes to Kansas City with something to prove.
Beyond the Boxscore
Let’s make a deal Zack Greinke’s first real breakthrough season prompted the
Royals to open talks on a long-term contract. Greinke expressed a willingness
to listen but also warned that he was sufficiently confident in his ability to
go year by year and see what the free agent market offers after the 2010
season. That stirred concern in a fan base all too accustomed to seeing the
Royals’ top players head elsewhere as they near free agency. It also led to
numerous trade inquiries from other teams — and countless rumors. The Royals
appear unlikely to trade Greinke at this point, but that could change if talks
remained stalled. Stay tuned.
Home makeover The $250 million renovation project at Kauffman Stadium should be
virtually complete in time for the April 10 home opener against the New York
Yankees. Last season was a mess at times, with construction proceeding
throughout the summer. Of course, ticket prices are shooting upward.
Star watch Entering the new year, the Royals and their fans were still waiting
for Commissioner Bud Selig to fulfill his promise of an All-Star Game in return
for public financing for the stadium’s glossy new look. Unofficially, it
appears Kansas City is in line for the 2012 game. The only other time that
Kansas City played host to the All-Star Game was 1973, when then-Royals Stadium
was in its inaugural season.
Mouth that roared The Royals signed outfielder José Guillen in December 2007
to a three-year contract for $36 million in hopes that he could provide some
offensive muscle. And he did by leading the club with 20 homers and 97 RBIs to
go along with a .264 average. But he also stirred controversy on multiple
occasions — calling out teammates, challenging manager Trey Hillman’s
authority, getting into a shoving match with pitching coach Bob McClure and
directing an expletive-filled rebuke at fans for lack of support.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — First baseman Eric Hosmer, a left-handed hitter and the
third overall pick out of Cooper City, Fla., played only three games at
short-season Idaho Falls before questions surfaced regarding whether he
actually agreed to his franchise-record $6 million signing bonus before the
Aug. 15 deadline. The season was over before that got resolved, but the Royals
are already raving over what they saw in the Instructional League. Scouts point
to his rare combination of power and bat speed in labeling him as a can’t-miss
talent who, even at 19, should zoom through the minors.
2007 Top Pick — Mike Moustakas, SS, Chatsworth (Calif.) High School
Now a third baseman; started slowly but led Midwest League in homers.
2006 Top Pick — Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee
Showed flashes after gaining spot in the rotation in late April but faces a
challenge to hold job.
2005 Top Pick — Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska
Hasn’t met immense expectations but showed definite improvement in second
season.
2004 Top Pick — Billy Butler, 3B, Wolfson (Fla.) High School
Now a 1B/DH because of defensive shortcomings, he’s still regarded as a can’
t-miss bat.
2003 Top Pick — Chris Lubanski, OF, Kennedy-Kenrick (Pa.) High School
Looking like a bust. Got bigger, heavier and slower without gaining the pop
required of a corner outfielder.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
1B Kila Ka’aihue (25)
Blossomed last season after six years of toiling in minors. Probably headed
back to Omaha, but he’s one to watch.
RHP Dan Cortes (22)
Development of killer 12-to-6 curve puts him on fast track but probably still
at least a year away.
RHP Carlos Rosa (24)
A starter in the minors but projects as a reliever because four-seam fastball
hits upper 90s in short bursts.
LHP Danny Duffy (20)
Definitely a lefty with a future: Has a 1.97 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 119
innings in first two pro seasons.
RHP Daniel Gutierrez (22)
Could arrive quickly if he maintains ability to pound the lower strike zone
with a mid-90s fastball and plus curve.
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