[討論] Fangraphs Top 15 Prospects
Kansas City entered 2011 with the undisputed best minor league system in
baseball. A year later the landscape has chanced somewhat thanks to
promotions (Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Tim Collins, etc.)
and injuries. The organization is not as deep as it once was but it still has
some impressive talent and is easily in the Top 10, if not the Top 5, when
discussing the best minor league systems.
1. Wil Myers, OF
BORN: Dec. 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 3rd round, North Carolina HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd
Drafted as a prep catcher, the organization made the difficult decision to
move Myers to right field so his defensive development would not hold him
back and would allow his potentially-plus bat to dictate his movement through
the system. After a dominating performance in A-ball in 2010, Myers struggled
at double-A and was merely “average” according to his wRC+ of .104. He
continued to show patience (12.5 BB%) but his strikeout rate rose to almost
21 K% and his average slipped to .254. His power output also dipped
considerably with his isolated power rate hitting .138. A knee infection
knocked Myers out from mid-May until early June and could be somewhat to
blame for his struggles; his best power displays came in April and August.
Perhaps feeling that he had something to prove, Myers lit the Arizona Fall
League on fire after being assigned there for the fall. He hit .360 with 14
extra base hits in 23 games (wRC+ of 178). With the strong showing in the
AFL, Myers will likely move up to triple-A for 2012 and could reach Kansas
City before the end of the year.
2. Mike Montgomery, LHP
BORN: July 1, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th
There was some hope that Montgomery would already be anchored in the Royals’
starting rotation but injuries and ineffectiveness have slowed his ascent.
The good news is that the left-hander was able to provide 150 innings of work
at triple-A in 2011. The bad news is that he floated a high ERA for much of
the year and eventually got it down to 5.32 (4.30 FIP). His walk rate was a
career high at 4.12 BB/9 and he allowed more than nine hits per inning, also
the highest of his time in pro ball. Despite his issues Montgomery has the
makings of a No. 2 starter and his repertoire includes a low-90s fastball
that can touch 95 mph, a potentially-plus changeup and a developing
curveball. Although there have been no direct correlations, Montgomery hasn’
t been as sharp since he suffered a strained forearm in 2010 and missed
almost two months. If he truly is back on solid ground in 2012 Montgomery
should not need much more seasoning in the minors and could be up for good by
midseason.
3. Bubba Starling, OF
BORN: Aug. 3, 1992
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (5th overall), Kansas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
Entering the 2011 high school season it appeared as though Starling’s future
would include playing quarterback at the University of Nebraska and,
possibly, the National Football League. However, his baseball skills showed a
noticeable improvement, enough so that he quickly became a no-brainer Top 10
prospect for the draft and reportedly even received some consideration for
the first overall pick. He ended up going fifth overall and signed with
Kansas City for more than $7 million. Starling has the potential to hit for
both average and power. His athleticism suggests that he could develop into
an above-average defensive right fielder with a plus arm. Starling currently
has above-average speed and will begin his career playing center field. The
organization hasn’t shied away from starting high-ceiling prep hitters in
low-a ball during their first full season so that’s where Starling will
likely find himself in April.
4. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
BORN: March 27, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 supplemental 1st round, Illinois HS (by Brewers)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 6th
It’s never easy to trade a successful young pitcher but the Royals
organization did a decent job of acquiring value back from the Milwaukee
Brewers in the Zack Greinke deal of 2010. Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and
Jeremy Jeffress have all made their presences known in Kansas City but the
best may be yet to come. Odorizzi doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he has a
chance to settle in as a solid No. 3 starter in the American League. The
right-hander has a four-pitch mix that includes a low-90s fastball,
curveball, slider and changeup. Odorizzi may be better off if he were to
ditch the slider and focus on his other three pitches. He shows good control
but he struggled during a mid-season promotion to double-A in 2011 because he
needs to improve the command of his secondary pitches. He’ll likely return
to double-A to begin 2012 but could taste the Majors at some point this
season.
5. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B
BORN: Nov. 16, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 17th
Cuthbert made some headlines when he signed out of Big Corn Island in ’09
but then all but disappeared in 2010. He stormed back onto the prospect
landscape with a solid showing in 2011. Just 19, Cuthbert received an
assignment to low-A to begin last season – after opening his career in
Rookie ball in ’10 – and he showed impressive skills. The third baseman
showcased an advanced approach at the plate by using the entire field and
displaying glimpses of raw power. He also exhibited patience by walking 10%
of the time and did a nice job of making contact and keeping the strikeouts
down. In the field he may ultimately lack the range to stay at third base but
he has a strong arm and good actions. Cuthbert will move up to high-A to
begin 2012 but, if all goes well, he could reach double-A at some point in
the second half of the season.
6. John Lamb, LHP
BORN: July 10, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 5th round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 5th
Only injuries have been able to slow down Lamb. The southpaw rose quickly
through the minor league system until an oblique strain followed by Tommy
John surgery ruined his dreams of reaching the Majors in 2011 or ’12. Lamb
will miss much of the season rehabbing his elbow but could see some time on
the mound in competitive action in the mid-to-late summer. When he’s right,
the lefty shows an 89-95 mph fastball, potentially-plus changeup and a
developing breaking ball. He has good control for his age and flashed the
ability to induce an above-average number of ground balls. Still just 21 time
is on his side as he rehabs his injury.
7. Yordano Ventura, RHP
BORN: June 3, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 10th
Ventura, 20, isn’t your typical hard-throwing right-hander. He can touch
triple digits with his heater but he stands just 5’10” and is a slight 150
lbs. His delivery has effort to it and he’s far from smooth with his
mechanics so there is a fair bit of work to be done to ensure he holds up
physically and can display the command necessary to succeed at higher levels.
In 2011 Ventura posted a strikeout rate of 9.39 K/9 and a walk rate of 2.56
BB/9. His numbers improved as the season progressed and he showed definite
improvement although he remains raw. He has also done a nice job of inducing
more ground-ball outs. Despite modest numbers in low-A ball Ventura should
move up to high-A ball in 2012 where he’ll look to break the 100-inning
barrier for the first time in his career.
8. Christian Colon, SS/2B
BORN: May 14, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Cal State Fullerton
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 8th
Colon’s prospect standing has taken a big hit over the past year –
something Kansas City fans don’t want to hear after the organization
invested in him with its fourth overall pick in the 2010 draft. The club
passed up the likes of Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, and Michael
Choice to sign the college infielder. Despite modest numbers Colon has been
pushed through the minors posting a wRC+ of just 80 at double-A during his
first full season in pro ball. With gold glove candidate Alcides Escobar
already manning shortstop in Kansas City, Colon has started to see time at
the keystone position. As it was there were scouts that questioned the Royals
prospect’s ability to remain at shortstop long term. Colon’s bat will have
to wake up soon if he’s going to be taken seriously as a potential every day
player at the MLB level.
9. Kelvin Herrera, RHP
BORN: Dec. 31, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
To some it will seem as though Herrera appeared out of thin air and landed on
the Top 15 list. To others, who follow the system closely, this ranking will
be an affirmation of the organization’s commitment to an injury-prone
pitcher who has always been loaded with potential. Herrera, now 22, was
originally signed in 2006 but pitched fewer than 110 innings between 2008 and
2010 while working out of the starting rotation – thanks to elbow issues.
Moved to the bullpen for ’11, the right-hander flew through the minors after
starting out in high-A ball. Herrera ended the year in the Majors, although
it was a bumpy two appearances. The reliever has an explosive repertoire and
could become the Royals’ closer in the not-too-distant future. His fastball
sits in the mid-to-high 90s and can touch triple digits. He also has a good
curveball and a solid changeup.
10. Bryan Brickhouse, RHP
BORN: June 6, 1992
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 3rd round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
Despite a lack of pro experience Brickhouse slides onto the back end of my
list because he was one of my favorite post-first-round draft picks from
2011. He signed for $1.5 million in the third round and turned down the
opportunity to pitch for the University of North Carolina. The Texas hurler
throws in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph at times. His second best pitch is
a curveball and he’s working to learn a changeup. If he can develop a third
pitch then he has a chance to stick in the starting rotation and could
develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. He also has a chance to be a solid
high-leverage reliever, which could lessen some of the concern over the
effort in his delivery. Brickhouse will open 2012 in extended spring training
before moving on to Rookie ball in June.
The Next Five
11. Chris Dwyer, RHP: The right-hander entered pro ball with a fair bit of
fanfare but he’s struggled to reach his potential due to command and control
problems – as well as some mechanical issues. His stuff has also taken a bit
of a step backward too. In reality a move to the bullpen might be the best
thing for Dwyer, who could then focus on developing his two best pitches: an
89-94 mph fastball and either his changeup or curveball.
12. Elier Hernandez, OF: The organization’s big ticket international signing
of 2011, Hernandez is a raw baseball player but he has a strong, mature body
and could develop plus power over time thanks to his plus bat speed.
Currently he possesses good line-drive potential. Hernandez should develop
into a solid right fielder with a good arm and average range.
13. Jorge Bonifacio, OF: Just 18, Bonifacio already has two years of pro
experience under his belt and could open 2012 in low-A ball if the
organization is feeling frisky. The outfielder has shown good pop throughout
his career, including an isolated power rate of .208 in 2011. Bonifacio has a
lot of work to do, though, if he’s going to hit or average because he
struggles with pitch recognition and swings-and-misses too much.
14. Jason Adam, RHP: The only prep pitcher signed from Kansas City’s 2010
draft crop, Adam has a chance to develop into a solid No. 3 innings-eater
thanks to his solid repertoire and strong frame. Signed away from a
commitment to the University of Missouri, Adam can touch the mid-90s and has
shown a good curveball. He has also made strides with his changeup. He was
challenged with an assignment to low-A ball in his first pro season and did
OK although improved command should help him improve upon his 6.56 strikeout
rate.
15. Brett Eibner, OF: A two-way player in college, some teams preferred
Eibner on the mound but he wanted to play everyday and Kansas City was
willing to accommodate him. As a result of his time on the mound he’s more
raw than the average college-groomed (highly-drafted) hitter and injuries in
2011 also slowed his development. On the plus side, Eibner displays plus raw
power at the plate and strong athleticism and a strong arm in the outfield.
SLEEPER ALERT: Humberto Arteaga, SS: Signed for just over $1 million in 2010
Arteaga is a strong defender with good range, hands and actions. He also has
a solid arm. He doesn’t project to hit for power and he isn’t a stolen base
threat so his offensive value will be tied up in his ability to hit for a
decent average. He recently turned 18 and may spend another season in
extended spring training before and assignment to short-season ball.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-kansas-city-royals/
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