[討論] Alex Gordon struggling to hit inside pitch
原文:http://ppt.cc/t4BN
(圖表請參閱原文)
提到了Gordon對於內角球的苦惱 揮棒速度可能是原因 從面對不同的球種
更可以很明顯的看出差異
前兩年的BABIP其實是偏高的 今年下修到比較合理的值 ISO則是連續三年下滑
也分析了他的擊球距離 其實球季前兩個月 最近這三年都差不多
但是從去年開始 從第三個月開始就有明顯的下滑 而今年又下滑得更多
作者當然也有懷疑是不是因為帶傷上陣所以影響他的揮棒速度(或是年紀?)
解決方法 一個是增加休息的場數 一個就是縮短揮棒幅度以彌補揮棒速度的不足
如果還是無解 那球團就好好打算考慮交易的問題(趁著他的交易價值還在時)
Kansas City Royals LF Alex Gordon is mired in a three-month-long slump.
Gordon was hitting .340 with an OPS of .882 when the Royals hired
George Brett as hitting coach on May 30. Today, Gordon is hitting .262
with an OPS of .734. He’s declined to become an exactly league average
hitter with an OPS+ of 100.
The simple fact is that Alex Gordon’s problem seems to be his
sudden inability to hit the inside pitch.
We can see this fact by comparing his batted ball results from
the first two months of the season to the last three (through August 18).
Heat maps below depict slight decreases as light blue progressing to
dark purple for large drop-offs, while marginal improvement is shown
as light green to red for extreme increases. The heat map below is
from the perspective of the catcher—thus a left-handed hitter like
Alex Gordon would take his stance to the right side of this diagram
from baseballheatmaps.com:
If we limit the sample to hard stuff—i.e. Fastballs, two-seam fastballs,
four-seam fastballs, and cut fastballs—we see an even more pronounced
decline:
What we see here is improvement hitting outer half fastballs high in
the strike zone and a pretty pronounced decline everywhere else.
Run the same comparison with off-speed pitches (changeup, curve,
sinker, slider, split-finger fastball) and we see he’s hitting
those pitches better than he did in the first two months of the season,
with the exception of inside pitches:
The other big number that jumps out from Alex Gordon’s data is his
batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has sharply declined
compared to the standard he set the last two seasons. This year
his BABIP is .311, down from .358 and .356 the last two years.
The drop may be a simple case of regression, since a BABIP of .350
is well above the league average of .296 this season.
Otherwise, Alex Gordon’s plate discipline and the pitch mix he’s
facing from opponents seem very similar to prior years. His contact
rates and line drive rates are right in line with career norms.
What we do see is a significant drop in his isolated power.
In 2011 Gordon’s iso was .200, which fell to .160 in 2012,
and is now .146 this season.
We find something more interesting if we look at his average
batted ball distance on home runs and fly balls from his peak
season in 2011 and compare it to his hot start in 2013 at
baseballheatmaps.com. We find that those distances are an almost
identical 288.03 in 2011 and 288.96 in the first two months of 2013.
His batted ball distance has sharply declined to 280.87 in his
last three months.
Add it up, and it looks like reduced bat speed has caused
Alex Gordon’s problems. The logic behind this conclusion is that
slower bat speed results in less distance. The trouble hitting hard stuff
supports this conclusion as well as his problems hitting inside pitches
(the bat head has to travel farther to get solid contact on inside pitches).
The idea that fly ball distance reflects bat speed rests on the
observation that Gordon’s contact rates and batted ball rates
(line drive, fly ball, ground ball, ect) have remained relatively constant.
If this analysis is correct, it begs the question of why has Gordon’s
bat slowed down? Does he have a nagging injury, or is it age?
To address this question I looked at his batted ball distance in Gordon’s
1st two months vs. the rest of the year over the last three seasons.
I found that his batted ball distance on flies and home runs remained
constant in 2011, but has shown sharp reductions the last two seasons
as the year wore on:
That data looks like age has caused 29-year-old Gordon to wear down
as the season progressed the last two seasons. The only logical
alternative is if he’s suffered nagging injuries the last two
mid-seasons that slowed down his bat speed but have not been severe
enough to sideline him.
The caveat to this conclusion is that in 2012, Gordon’s splits
showed he struggled his first two months and performed well from
June onward last season (though he showed a progressive decline
each month until season’s end after his peak month in June).
If Alex Gordon has indeed worn down the last two years, the obvious
solution would be to increase his rest days. Second, Gordon might
consider a Hosmer-like adjustment of moving his hands closer to the
plate to help him get around on the inside pitch. The other,
uncomfortable suggestion is if Gordon can’t find a way to maintain
his bat speed throughout the year, the Royals front office should
consider dealing him while he still has a relatively high trade value.
GM Dayton Moore needs to do this before Alex Gordon goes “full-Francoeur”
on us—especially since his final two contract years are for $10 million
in 2014 and $12 million in 2015.
--
若是到8月底還沒有起色 是時候開始檢討2013 展望2014了
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 86.98.47.108
Royals 近期熱門文章
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章