[討論] 購買清單-投手篇(先發投手)
Posted By: David Leskyon: November 10, 2015In: Baseball ChatterNo Comments
Yesterday, I took a look at the position players the Royals could look at in
free agency who would be at least somewhat realistic for them to acquire.
With the injury to Jason Vargas and the loss of Johnny Cueto to free agency
as well as some bullpen losses due to free agency and attrition, the Royals
are going to be in the market for some pitching. One notable comment from
Dayton Moore already is that he believes the Royals need to add innings to
their rotation, and I couldn’t agree more. A great bullpen is great to have,
but it would be tough to work through another year of the starters throwing
the least innings in the American League.
Starting Pitchers
This is an interesting category because the Royals currently have Edinson
Volquez, Yordano Ventura and Kris Medlen as locks for the 2016 rotation (as
of now). The big question here is what the Royals decide to do with Danny
Duffy. If he’s a reliever next year, they obviously need to find two
starters because there’s just nobody ready in the minor leagues to start the
season. Miguel Almonte and Kyle Zimmer may get some starts at some point, but
I can’t see it out of spring training. That’s why I think Duffy probably
begins the year as a starter. It’s just too expensive to fill the holes on
offense and go get two starting pitchers.
Brett Anderson – QO(略)
Wei-Yin Chen – If you’re looking for the Royals to make a splash, I don’t
see it, but I could see them going after Chen. I think Bruce Chen makes
people think that this Chen is a finesse lefty, but he isn’t. He has a
quality fastball and pretty good control. He struggles against right-handed
batters at times, which could make a 4/56-type price tag seem too high, but he
’s a good bet for 30-32 really solid starts in a season, which the Royals
could definitely use. (加減看)
Marco Estrada – This is the guy who seems to make the most sense for the
Royals based on their patterns. They love good control and a good changeup,
and they don’t shy away from fly ball pitchers because of their defense and
the big park. Of course, with Alex Gordon potentially leaving, the defense
may change a bit, but Estrada still is a good fit. He did receive a
qualifying offer, and that makes him a bit less attractive because last year
was the first year he put it together. His postseason will also make him show
up on the list of a lot of teams, so they may not win the bidding for him,
but you can bet they’ll at least check in.
Doug Fister – Here’s a big-time buy-low candidate who I am a huge advocate
of. From 2011-2014, Fister went 51-38 with a 3.11 ERA and walked just 1.7
batters per nine innings. He dealt with some injuries in 2015, and he’d be a
risk, but he’s the one guy on the market who could give insane value for a
one-year deal. He’s only topped 200 innings twice in his career, so I’m not
sure that you can count on him for that, but he could do it, and I think he’
d be a more than worthwhile risk.
Yovani Gallardo – QO(略)
J.A. Happ – Happ became a different pitcher with the Pirates, as so many do.
He began relying more on his fastball and with a more consistent release
point found a higher spin rate on it. Is that sustainable? It’s hard to say.
He did it through 63.1 innings in Pittsburgh, so it’s a gamble. He’s
probably best off signing with the Pirates, but Dave Eiland isn’t exactly
chump change when it comes to pitching coaches, so I’d feel good about him
coming to KC as well.
Hisashi Iwakuma – I’m not going to spend a ton of time on Iwakuma because I
think he ends up with the Mariners, but a guy like him would be really nice
to have in the middle of the rotation.
Scott Kazmir – This is a name I’m torn on. He didn’t get a qualifying
offer since he was traded mid-season, but he’s also worn down badly at the
end of the season in each of the last two years. Is that a guy you want to
give a four-year deal to? I’m just not so sure, and that’s what he’ll be
after, if not more. In spite of that, he’s a lefty with big-time stuff and
enough control that he’s very dangerous. If the Royals could somehow find a
way to sign him to a three year, $39 million deal, that would be something to
pounce on, but at four years and maybe $60 million, I’d be very hesitant.
That’s a fine line.
Ian Kennedy – I wanted the Royals to go after Kennedy at the trade deadline
in 2014, but they obviously didn’t. He had an up and down 2015, but the
Padres gave him a qualifying offer anyway. He might just accept that, so he
might not end up on the market at all. If he does, though, he’s a guy with
good enough control who gets swings and misses. He’s probably not worth
giving up a first round pick for, so he’s another guy who might be a
candidate if the Royals signed another free agent with compensation attached.
I love the stuff, but I’m not a huge fan of what he’ll command, both in
money and commodities.
John Lackey –QO(略)
Mike Leake – The Royals were very interested in drafting Leake when he went
four picks ahead of the Royals to the Reds. There was some talk at the
deadline that the Royals had interest in him if they couldn’t get Cueto, so
there’s been multiple instances where this regime has liked Leake, and with
good reason. He’s a good bet to take the ball every fifth day and keep his
team in the game. He doesn’t get many strikeouts at all, but if you can
succeed in Cincinnati, you can succeed anywhere. Kauffman Stadium would be a
great fit for him too. There’s a lot of talk that he’ll want to stay in San
Francisco, but free agency beckons and doesn’t really care about people’s
desires for location sometimes, so you never know. I’d be okay with Leake.
Colby Lewis –不可能略
Jeff Samardzija –(略)
Chris Young – I still don’t understand how Young didn’t have any big
league offers prior to the Royals signing him once spring training was
already underway. He followed up a really nice comeback season with the
Mariners by giving the Royals an even better year. If you’re looking for 30
starts, you’re looking at the wrong person, but if you’re looking for a guy
who can spend some time in the bullpen and some in the rotation and be solid
in both, Young is your guy. I feel like the Royals will end up giving Young
maybe a one-year deal worth $5 million with some incentives and an option,
maybe even a vesting one. He’s a guy every staff can use.
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