[Farm] BP 2016 Top 10 Royals prospects
by Christopher Crawford and BP Prospect Staff
The State of the System: The quantity of impact prospects is as low as it has
been for quite some time, but that could be because they’ve spent the last
two seasons at the apex of the competitive cycle.
The Top Ten
SS Raul Mondesi
RHP Kyle Zimmer
RHP Ashe Russell
RHP Nolan Watson
OF Bubba Starling
RHP Miguel Almonte
LHP Foster Griffin
C Chase Vallot
RHP Scott Blewett
3B Hunter Dozier
1. Raul Mondesi, SS
DOB: 07/27/1995
Height/Weight: 6’1” 185 lbs.
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed July 2011 by Kansas City out of the Dominican
Republic for $2 million
Previous Ranking(s): #1 (Org.) #27 (Top 101)
2015 Stats: .243/.279/.372, 6 HR, 19 SB in 338 PA at Double-A Northwest
Arkansas
Future Tools: 70 speed, 60 glove, 60 arm
Role: 60—First-division shortstop
Mondesi became the first-ever player to debut in the World Series, which
tells you little about what kind of prospect he is. His main value comes from
what he can do with the leather, but there is some offensive upside here,
too. He possesses above-average bat speed and a clean, line-drive stroke from
both sides of the plate, which would make the hit tool above average if he
had a semblance of patience. His aggressiveness leads to poor walk totals and
more swing-and-miss than you’d want from a hitter with only 40 pop. His
double-plus speed does make him a threat to steal 50 bags per year if he’s
on base enough, and also allows him to take extra bases Jon Q. Averagerunner
cannot.
The reason Mondesi is an upper-echelon prospect is his potential value with
the glove. The aforementioned speed gives him elite range, and his ability to
get the ball out quickly helps his cannon arm play up, making him a potential
star at the position. He has cut down on his errors—both mental and physical
—but there are times when he’s moving too fast, which leads to some silly
throws and/or flubs with the glove.
As one executive put it, Mondesi just “needs to learn to calm the hell down.
” If he can, he’s a potential All-Star, but if not, he’s more of a
bottom-of-the-order hitter who still provides value with his legs and glove.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Sometimes it’s lazy to just compare a prospect
to the player directly ahead of him on the depth chart in his organization.
On the other hand, there are an awful lot of similarities between Mondesi and
Alcides Escobar in the fantasy sense. Both are better in AVG leagues than OBP
ones. Both rack up their value with their 40-steal speed. And both will
likely disappoint in every other category.
Major League ETA: Debuted in 2015 (kinda)
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP
DOB: 09/13/1991
Height/Weight: 6’3” 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 5th overall by Kansas City in the 2012 MLB Draft,
University of San Francisco (CA); signed for $3 million
Previous Ranking(s): #6 (Org.)
2015 Stats: 2.39 ERA, 64 IP, 53 H, 20 BB, 72 K at Low-A Lexington and
Double-A Northwest Arkansas
Future Tools: 70 fastball, 65 curveball, 55 slider, 50+ change, 50+ command
Role: 60—No. 2/3 starter/High-leverage reliever
When healthy, Zimmer will show as complete an arsenal as any prospect in the
game, led by a four-seam fastball that will sit 92-95 mph with movement and
touch higher. His bread and butter is a hammer curveball that he can locate
for strikes, take out of the zone to generate swings-and-misses, or use to
coax ground balls. Those two pitches alone would make him a quality prospect,
but he also features an above-average slider that flashes plus with hard
tilt, along with a solid-average change for good measure. He repeats his
delivery, and he throws all four pitches for strikes to all parts of the
plate.
So why isn’t a pitcher with this kind of stuff and above-average command on
top of this list? Because Zimmer can’t stay healthy, and there are serious
doubts about whether he ever will for long. He’s missed time now with elbow,
lat, and shoulder issues—the lat-ter (I’m not sorry) being the most
concerning— and he has yet to throw more than 109 innings in any of his
three-plus seasons as a professional (only 217 in his career). If he can keep
the arm intact, he’s a top-of-the-rotation guy, but no one would blame the
Royals for moving him to the bullpen and seeing just how dominant that stuff
could be in a high-leverage role.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: It’s hard to know what to do with Zimmer in
dynasty leagues at this point. The talent has been clear at times during his
minor league career, but injuries have depressed his value far below its
peak. There’s still more here than your run-of-the-mill mid-rotation starter
because what was in his arm might still be there, but he’s barely hanging on
as a top-100 fantasy prospect at this point.
Major League ETA: 2017
3. Ashe Russell, RHP
DOB: 08/28/1996
Height/Weight: 6’4” 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 21st overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, Cathedral HS,
(Indianapolis, IN); signed for $2.1092 million
Previous Ranking(s): No. 37 top 125 MLB Draft Prospects
2015 Stats: 4.21 ERA, 36.1 IP, 32 H, 13 BB, 24 K at short-season Burlington
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 60 slider
Role: 55—Mid-rotation starter/reliever
Russell drew a smorgasbord of opinions coming into the draft, with one
scouting director (not Kansas City’s) calling him his favorite prep prospect
in the class, but more than one scout/executive calling him a reliever. He
attacks hitters with a 92-95 mph four-seam fastball, and his three-quarters
arm slot gives the pitch plenty of movement. His slider will flash plus but
is more consistently an above-average offering at present, as it darts away
from right-handed hitters with enough bite to make it a quality offering. He
can also locate it for a strike. The change is the weakest of his three
offerings, a fringe-average pitch that lacks deception or movement—though it
should be good enough for him to start.
Russell is a strike-thrower who projects to have at least average command,
but the reason so many believe he’ll end up in the bullpen is his delivery.
He has a tendency to throw across his body, making it easy for left-handed
hitters to pick up the baseball, and there’s some effort to his delivery
that could cause problems down the road. The Royals will give him every
chance to start, but no one should be surprised if he ultimately makes his
living pitching in short bursts.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: It doesn’t take long to notice that this isn’t
the strongest system in terms the fantasy sense. Russell is a reasonable
gamble at the end of dynasty drafts this winter, but with the depth in this
class, he did not crack my Top 50 list from earlier this month. A plus
fastball and a bat-missing secondary pitch is a good place to start for a
short-season flier, but Russell is a wait-and-see for non-deep leaguers.
Major League ETA: 2019
4. Nolan Watson, RHP
DOB: 01/25/1997
Height/Weight: 6’2” 195 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 33rd overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, Lawrence North
HS, (Indianapolis, IN); signed for $1.8252 million
Previous Ranking(s): No. 44 on Top 125 MLB Draft Prospects
2015 Stats: 4.91 ERA, 29.1 IP, 39 H, 11 BB, 16 K at short-season Burlington
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 55 slider, 50+ change, 50+ command
Role: 55—Mid-rotation starter
Watson was the other prep pitcher taken by the Royals from Indiana in 2015,
and although he doesn’t offer near the upside of Russell, he might be the
more likely of the two to start. The right-hander has a plus fastball that
will sit 92-94 and touch 96 mph. When he stays on top of his slider it’s an
above-average to plus offering, though like many teenagers he doesn’t always
finish it and it gets slurvy. He’s still gaining feel for his changeup, but
he has good arm speed, and there’s enough tumble to project it as an average
offering.
Although Watson doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff that Russell does, his
delivery is substantially better. It’s clean, easily repeated, and it should
allow him to have at least average command, with a chance for more as his
feel for pitching improves. The upside is a mid-rotation arm, with back-end
starter/swingman a very solid if unspectacular floor.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: A short-season pitcher without much chance of
achieving more than a mid-rotation future does not a strong fantasy prospect
make. Watson is not worth a draft pick in anything but deep leagues this
preseason, but a strong start in 2016 could put him on the map as a name to
watch (and to subsequently trade).
Major League ETA: 2019
5. Bubba Starling, OF
DOB: 08/03/1992
Height/Weight: 6’4” 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted fifth overall in the 2011 MLB Draft,
Gardner-Edgerton HS (Gardner, KS); signed for $7.5 million
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: .269/.337/.448, 12 HR, 6 SB in 418 PA at High-A Carolina and
Double-A Northwest Arkansas
Future Tools: 60 arm, 60 glove, 55 speed
Role: 50—Average regular in the outfield
The difference between the version of Starling on display in the Arizona Fall
League in 2015 and 2014 was night and day, and multiple scouts said the same
thing about his regular season. There’s still a lot of moving parts in his
swing, but he shortened the path and added a slight leg kick as a timing
mechanism, which led to more hard contact in 2015. His bat speed and natural
strength give him above-average raw power, yet it plays down to solid-average
—maybe a tick below—because of the moving parts and a lack of loft. The
approach and pitch recognition appear to have jumped as well, though he
remains too prone to whiffs for comfort.
Starling’s defense didn’t take a step forward in 2015, but it didn’t have
to. He still has the plus arm that you see from plenty of ex-quarterbacks,
and he’s an above-average runner who takes good routes in center field.
There’s still a lot of work to be done, but there’s no denying that 2015
was a massive step in the right direction. If he can take another one, he
could be a top-of-the-order hitter who provides great value with the glove
and enough value with the bat. If he doesn’t, he’s a fourth outfielder or
platoon bat.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Yep, that guy. Compared to a bunch of the other
names on this list, Starling stands out as someone it may be worth a second
look. The high-end five-tool profile isn’t quite there anymore, but there’s
still 20-homer and 20-steal potential in there somewhere; and betting on
upside is never a bad thing.
Major League ETA: 2017
6. Miguel Almonte, RHP
DOB: 04/04/1993
Height/Weight: 6’2” 180 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed November 2010 by Kansas City out of the Dominican
Republic for $25,000
Previous Ranking(s): #2 (Org.) #56 (101)
2015 Stats: 4.51 ER, 103.2 IP, 98 H, 42 BB, 96 K at Double-A Northwest
Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha; 6.23 ERA, 8.2 IP, 7 H, 7 BB, 10 K at Kansas City
Future Tools: 65 fastball, 60 change
Role: 50—No. 4 starter/High-leverage reliever
While Starling took a massive step forward, Almonte took a sizable one
backward in 2014. There’s still elite arm strength that allows him to get
his fastball into the high 90s, but when the fastball ticks up, the pitch
flattens out. When he’s working 92-95, there’s run and occasional sink, and
he’s more effective in this range. He has feel for a plus changeup that has
plenty of sink, and he sells it with plus deception from his quick arm.
Unfortunately, it plays down at times, as he'll go to the well too often, and
will get cute with it instead of challenging hitters. The curveball is an
average offering with so-so depth. It’s good enough to keep him in the
rotation, even if it is rarely in the strike zone. In fact, none of these
pitches was a strike very often in 2015, as his delivery regressed and showed
more effort than in previous seasons.
Almonte has the arsenal to be a key part of a pitching staff—be it the
bullpen or the rotation—but he’s going to have to show more consistency if
it’s going to be in 2016, and much better command if it’s going to be in a
multiple-inning role.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The excitement around Almonte in dynasty leagues
has dwindled, and for good reason. With a bullpen future looking more likely
than ever, he’s barely hanging on as a top-200 fantasy prospect. Even if he
does make it through the gauntlet and into a starting role, the WHIP will be
a constant issue and prevent him from being a reliable mixed league starter.
Major League ETA: Debuted in 2015
7. Foster Griffin, LHP
DOB: 07/25/1995
Height/Weight: 6’3” 200 lbs.
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 28th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, The First
Academy (Orlando, FL); signed for $1.925 million
Previous Ranking(s): #9 (Org.)
2015 Stats: 5.44 ERA, 102.2 IP, 123 H, 35 BB, 71 K at Low-A Lexington
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 55 change
Role: 45—Back-end starter
Griffin was considered one of the more “advanced” prep pitchers taken in
the 2014 draft, but he was lit up in Lexington, so, shrug. There were enough
flashes of brilliance—along with this system not being very good—to keep
him in the top 10. His velocity isn’t elite, generally sitting in the around
90, touching 92 at times, yet the pitch is plus because it boasts a great
deal of life. He has excellent feel for his change, and there's some late
tumble to the above-average pitch. His curveball is a problem at this point,
as it flattens up in the zone too often and doesn't have the depth you'd want
from a competent breaking ball. Despite his ability to command the changeup,
he'll struggle with his overall control because of his long arm action and
the movement on the fastball. Griffin is a good reminder that feel for
pitching doesn't necessarily portend good command, or results.
There's plenty of time for Griffin to develop into a solid mid-rotation arm,
but he'll have to show marked improvement to justify this ranking in 2016.
Based on the stuff and command profile he showed as a prep, it’s hard to
fathom that 2015 was anything but a bump in the road, but the margin of error
here is pretty thin.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Really not much to see here with Griffin in
dynasty leagues—these are the types of arms you can grab once they pass the
Double-A test, rather than rostering them through their formative years.
Major League ETA: 2018
8. Chase Vallot, C
DOB: 08/21/1996
Height/Weight: 6’0” 215 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 40th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, St. Thomas More
HS (Lafayette, LA); signed for $1.35 million
Previous Ranking(s): #8 (Org.)
2015 Stats: .219/.331/.427, 13 HR, 1 SB in 279 PA at Low-A Lexington
Future Tools: 60 power, 60 arm
Role: 45—Fringe-average regular behind the plate
Vallot’s stats may not be aesthetically pleasing, but they don't tell the
complete story of his 2015 season. The calling card here is power, as he
generates plus pop to all fields thanks to the loft, leverage, and extension,
granted by his wrist strength and long arms. The downside to those long arms
is a long swing, which combines with merely average bat speed to result in a
below-average hit tool. He does compensate by showing a solid approach at the
plate, and he'll draw his fair share of walks.
Vallot is very much a work in progress behind the plate, but he should be
able to stay there. The arm strength is plus, and his footwork and hands made
significant strides this summer, despite well-below-average athleticism.
His hit tool may not allow him to play every day, but a backup catcher with
20-homer power potential and a passable glove has value.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Any catcher who could one day hit 25 homers is
someone worth monitoring, but there are enough flaws in the rest of his game
to prevent him from being that interesting of a fantasy prospect. If you’re
in an OBP league, Vallot is more interesting, but investing in catching at
all on your farm team has its own risks.
Major League ETA: 2018
9. Scott Blewett, RHP
DOB: 04/10/1996
Height/Weight: 6’6” 210 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 56th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, Baker HS
(Baldwinsville, NY); signed for $1.8 million
Previous Ranking(s): Unranked
2015 Stats: 5.20 ERA, 81.1 IP, 88 H, 24 BB, 60 K at Low-A Lexington
Future Tools: 60 fastball, 55 curve
Role: 45—Back-end starter/reliever
Like Griffin, Blewett struggled in his first professional season, and like
Griffin, reasons for optimism remain. He’s able to get downhill with a
fastball that will touch 96, and there might be more to come as he fills out
his frame. His curveball is woefully inconsistent, but when he stays on top
of his delivery and finds a consistent slot, it’s an above-average offering
with good snap and depth. His change is light-years away from being a
competent third pitch, as he doesn’t appear to have great feel for it, and
there’s a pretty noticeable difference in arm speed when he throws it. His
mechanics are clean and his command improved considerably as the year went on.
Blewett is a long-term investment; one who is still more thrower than pitcher
at this point. That being said, the ceiling is higher than any pitcher
outside of Russell, and if he can show those two out pitches on a more
consistent basis, he'll place significantly higher in the 2017 edition.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: If it seems like there’s a long list of pitchers
on this list who don’t make for great fantasy investments, you’re noticing
the pattern. Blewett does not need to be on your radar, unless your league
rosters more than 250 prospects.
Major League ETA: 2018
10. Hunter Dozier, 3B
DOB: 08/22/1991
Height/Weight: 6’4” 220 lbs.
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted eighth overall in the 2013 MLB Draft, Stephen F.
Austin State University (TX); signed for $2.2 million
Previous Ranking(s): #5 (Org.)
2015 Stats: .213/.281/.348, 12 HR, 6 SB in 523 PA at Double-A Northwest
Arkansas
Future Tools: 60 glove, 60 arm
Role: 45—Below-average regular at third base/utility corner infielder
It’s been a steep decline for Dozier, who was once one of the better third
base prospects in baseball. More than one scout I spoke with believed it was
time to give up on the profile— with one executive calling him a “lost
cause.” His approach has gotten worse each year, and his long, unorthodox
swing with only solid-average bat speed gives him serious contact issues.
There is some raw pop in his bat and his swing has natural loft, but raw
power only does so much when you can’t make consistent contact.
Fortunately for Dozier, he’s still a good defensive third baseman. He has
excellent range (he was a shortstop in college), and his strong arm makes him
an asset—to the extent that he could probably fill in anywhere in the
infield.
If he can hone his swing there’s still a chance he becomes a regular.
Without major changes to the approach, those chances are pretty slim, and they
’ll decrease even further with another poor season.
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Compared to the pitchers around him here, Dozier
seems like a perfectly fine dynasty league player. It’s been quite a
struggle at Double-A for him, but his defense will get him to the majors and
the bat once-upon-a-time profiled as average for the position. Given how down
the position is in fantasy, he’s a gamble still worth taking.
Major League ETA: 2017
Five who are just interesting:
Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B – It really doesn’t get more interesting than this.
Fuenmayor originally signed nine years ago with the Blue Jays for a large
bonus, struggled to get above Low-A before getting released, played two years
of independent ball before the Royals signed him, and hit so well that he
earned a trip to the Futures Game as a 25-year-old. Neat, huh? There’s plus
power in his bat and he squares everything up, but it’s very much a DH
profile, providing almost zero value with the glove and speed. I hope I’m
wrong, because seeing someone like Fuenmayor come up and become a regular in
a lineup would be a lot of fun, but the odds are stacked against him.
Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF – In 2012 Escalara-Maldonado was the youngest
player ever drafted (17 years and just under four months), and while progress
has been slow, he showed a great deal of promise in 2015. Always a quality
athlete, he shortened his swing, and that allowed him to make more quality
contact to all parts of the field. He’s still filling out his frame, but
there’s a chance for a tick-above-average power thanks to his strong wrists
and ability to transfer his weight. He’ll have to vastly improve his
approach at the plate, but if he can, there’s a chance he ends up a regular
in the outfield.
Josh Staumont, RHP – Staumont was the Royals’ second-round pick this June,
and there were flashes of dominance in the summer as he struck out 58 in 40
innings. He misses bats with a borderline 80 fastball that will touch
triple-digits and sits 94-98. Neither of his secondary offerings is plus, but
an average curve and fringe-average change play up when a hitter is looking
for 100 mph heat. Unfortunately, far too often Staumont has absolutely no
idea where these pitches are going, as his command is closer to 30 than it is
50, and he causes a ton of self-inflicted damage. If he can throw strikes
more consistently, you could be looking at the next great Royals reliever. If
he can’t, well, you know what happens.
Alec Mills, RHP – If Mills and Staumont could somehow form into one pitcher,
(t)he(y)’d basically be Pedro Martinez. Mills pounds the strike zone with
three pitches (14 walks in just over 114 innings) from an easy-to-repeat
delivery. He also has an above-average fastball, but neither of his secondary
pitches is more than average, with his curveball and change both checking in
as a tick below average. Should either of those pitches bump up, he’s a
mid-rotation guy; otherwise, his good command makes him a plausible back-end
starter/swingman.
Brandon Downes, OF – Downes frustrated scouts as an outfielder at Virginia,
and he continues to do so as a professional. (That might be the only
consistent thing about him—besides his name, anyway.) There’s above-average
power in his right-handed bat, which paired with his plus speed give him a
chance to be a 20-20 player. Like so many players on this list, however, the
approach leaves a lot to be desired, and the length of his swing and
aggressiveness make the hit tool below average at best. He’s a competent
center fielder with an above-average arm, so there’s a fourth outfielder
floor here, but he could be an everyday guy if he can show a smidgen of
consistency.
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/90 or later)
Yordano Ventura
Salvador Perez
Raul Mondesi
Kyle Zimmer
Ashe Russell
Nolan Watson
Bubba Starling
Miguel Almonte
Foster Griffin
Chase Vallot
Sometimes, things are just easy. That isn’t often the case in major-league
baseball, but it is the case with respect to this 25-and-Under list. Eric
Hosmer, who I have no reason to suspect is anything other than a gentleman
and a scholar, is nonetheless sadly ineligible for this year’s list by
virtue of his advanced age. Kelvin Herrera, likewise, departs the list an
aged veteran of 26 years and marches ever-closer to Eternity. That leaves
Yordano Ventura, no. 2 on last year’s list, to take the first spot easily.
Ventura had a second consecutive solid season in 2015, with no warning signs
in his peripherals and modest improvements in the things that matter (mostly,
strikeout to walk ratio). He should be Good next year, and for many years
thereafter, assuming he stops fighting people larger than he is, which is
most people.
Perez is a more interesting case, because so much of his perceived value is
tied up in his receiving, which comes in for general acclaim despite strong
evidence in BP’s new catching stats that he is, in fact, a fairly bad
defensive catcher (career FRAA: -30.5). Still, he put up a second consecutive
.251 TAv season in 2015, also slugging 21 home runs over 553 plate
appearances. He could stand to get on base a little bit more, and all those
games at catcher will start to wear down his value eventually, but for now
PECOTA likes his chances to produce about 10 wins over the next five years. I
do too, and that puts him a fair bit behind Ventura, and a little bit ahead
of Mondesi. For now.
And that’s it for the 25U talent, I swear. That’s not to say there’s
nothing good happening in Kansas City, of course; there manifestly is. Just,
most of it is old enough to rent a car without paying an extra fee. — Rian
Watt
The Executives:
Senior Vice President, Baseball Operations: Dayton Moore
Director, Amateur Scouting: Lonnie Goldberg
VP/AGM, Player Personnel: J.J. Picollo
Senior Advisor to the GM, Player Development: Mike Arbuckle
VP/AGM, Major League and International Operations: Rene Francisco
Remember when everyone made jokes about Dayton Moore? I do, because I used to
make a lot of jokes about Dayton Moore. There have been some high-profile
disappointments (Christian Colon, Mike Montgomery, etc.), but Piccolo,
Arbuckle, and the rest of the player development system has done an
outstanding job of taking fringe prospects and/or players with a glaring
weakness and turning them into regulars or valuable members of the pitching
staff.
Goldberg is as respected a scouting director as there is in the American
League, routinely finding diamonds in the rough and without many busts when
the Royals were picking early outside of Colon. Despite being as small market
as small market clubs can get, they have done a great job of finding assets
in the international ranks, and have done it by spending big (Mondesi) or
small (Almonte). and much of that credit goes to Rene Francisco, the
international operations director/assistant General Manager. The system isn’
t great on paper, but it’d be so much worse if not for the talent of the
names listed above.
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