[Farm] MLB Rookie Review: Brett Eibner, OF
By John Sickels on May 27, 2016, 1:08p
Yesterday the Kansas City Royals promoted outfield prospect Brett Eibner to
the major league roster. A second round pick from the University of Arkansas
back in 2010, Eibner took several years to figure out how to handle minor
league pitching. Like Angels rookie Kaleb Cowart, conversion to the pitching
mound was considered when Eibner struggled with the bat but he's saved his
career as a hitter and is now getting a major league opportunity.
From the 2016 Baseball Prospect Book:
Brett Eibner, OF, Kansas City Royals
Bats: R Throws: R HT: 6-4 WT: 210 DOB: December 2, 1988
2011: Grade B; 2012: Grade B-; 2013: Grade C; 2014: Grade C+; 2015: Grade C
At age 27 Brett Eibner has fallen off most prospect lists to the point
that his excellent 2015 season in Omaha is generally written off as an older
guy dominating the high minors. That’s true as far as it goes, but there are
hints of something more here. Note the sharp reduction in his strikeout rate.
That fits reports from Omaha observers that he learned to lay off the
breaking stuff that flummoxed him in the past. He still runs pretty well, has
good power, and is a fine defensive outfielder with a strong arm. The tools
have always been there and if the hitting skills took a real step forward, he
’s a valuable asset. The Royals don’t seem to have room for him and it
would be a good idea to test his bat outside the Pacific Coast League to see
if the improvement is real, but he is still worth tracking. Grade C.
ADDITIONAL COMMENTARY
Eibner hit .303/.364/.514 last year for Omaha with 38 walks and 79 strikeouts
in 389 at-bats. This year he's at .309/.411/.537 with 27 walks and 36
strikeouts in 149 at-bats. He's also stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts over his
last 144 games.
Earlier in his career Eibner was hampered by a very high strikeout rate that
cut into his production but that's changed recently. His whiff rates used to
be around 30% but have been around 19% in 2015 and 2016. His walk rates are
up as well, and all this fits scouting reports from the Pacific Coast League
indicating that he's finally learned to lay off junk pitches. He's a quality
runner and fielder and his arm is strong enough that he was a successful
pitcher in college.
Projection systems give similar results: Steamer suggests .244/.312/.394,
PECOTA has a little less OBP and a touch more power at .236/.303/.403. Either
outcome seems reasonable, if on the lower end of expectation. Having seen
Eibner several times over the years, I think it plausible he could hit
.250/.310/.400 or so, nothing excellent but viable as a role player since he
can run and field too.
At age 27, Eibner is at the classic career peak and it wouldn't be a surprise
if he exceeds those expectations for a year or two before he starts to fade.
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