[Farm] RHP AJ Puckett at 67th overall
By Shaun Newkirk @Shauncore on Jun 10, 2016, 8:04a
With their only pick on day one of the draft the Royals take Pepperdine right
hander AJ Puckett at 67th overall. Puckett is a very interesting case both on
and off the field.
On the field Puckett is a 6'4" 200 pound right hander with a slender-ish
frame that could perhaps grow just a bit. He features a slightly above
average fastball that can touch 94-95 MPH but his calling card is a near plus
changeup at 83-85 with excellent movement. His third pitch curveball is
further behind his other two and might only peak at an average 50 grade.
Mechanically there are questions with the pace of his delivery. He needs to
make some adjusts to fix his fringey command but there is a lot of timing and
motion in his delivery that needs to stay in sync for his to pitch with
consistency.
Puckett made some headlines when he went 42.2 innings straight without
allowing an earned run. Statistically he's been much better in this his
junior year than previously.
Year Age ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 K/BB
2014 19 3.58 23 1 50.1 44 24 20 3 24 43 4 2 1.35 0.54 4.29 7.69 1.79
2015 20 4.35 15 15 97.1 102 49 47 6 31 81 6 1 1.37 0.55 2.87 7.49 2.61
2016 21 1.27 14 14 99.1 65 22 14 2 26 95 6 0 0.92 0.18 2.36 8.61 3.65
Total 2.95 52 30 247 211 95 81 11 81 219 16 3 1.18 0.4 2.95 7.98 2.7
You can see he was a completely different pitcher his Junior year this year
by ERA, HR, WHIP, H/9, K/9, you name it. That of course is one of the reasons
for that long earned run-less streak. He also ran a .242 BABIP as well.
There is some variance and indecisiveness on what Puckett may be. The max
ceiling is he brings his command more in line, his curveball comes around and
he's a #4, possibly #3 starter. The more median outcome though is that the
command improves a bit to become average, and there is a slight bump in his
curveball to get it up to average as well. That's more of a bullpen piece or
a #5 starter.
Off the field though Puckett is an amazing story. He was a promising football
players in high school but one day while "horsing around" he hit his head.
This led to Puckett suffering a left partial hematoma and doctors decided to
induce him into a coma while the swelling and clotting healed. Then he had
small plates inserted into his skull and of course his football career was
now over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-1r7mz-TWY
From MLB.com
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 |
Overall: 45
For a young man who spent two weeks in a coma in high school, just being
able to function in this world is a win. But Puckett, a one-time two-sport
standout who gave up football after an epidural hematoma, has done just more
than that, becoming Pepperdine's Friday night starter as a junior, reeling
off a 45 2/3 innings scoreless streak, and putting himself in position to be
a Day 1 draftee.
The 6-foot-4 Puckett has always shown solid pitchability, but some added
velocity this year has certainly upped his profile. The right-hander has been
up to 94 mph consistently this spring and has combined that fastball with an
excellent changeup. While his curveball is still fringy, he's tightened it up
quite a bit and it should be a third at-least average pitch in time. He can
pitch to both sides of the plate, commanding his arsenal very well.
There is still some projection in Puckett's frame and that combined with
his pitchability, was making him a very intriguing college arm as the Draft
arrived.
From Baseball Prospectus
67. Kansas City Royals: A.J. Puckett, RHP, Pepperdine
The Puckett story is a fascinating one (I wholeheartedly recommend
Googling him after you read this) and it's awesome to see him recover from
his trials and tribulations. Both the fastball and change are above average,
and he throws strikes with all three pitches. The curveball needs a lot of
work, but if it can be even average, he's pitching in a rotation.
From Baseball Prospectus earlier this spring
A.J. Puckett, RHP, Pepperdine University
Puckett boasts a solid, filled-out frame at 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, with
long legs and a strong base. There's some rigidity in his initial rock, and
it teams with a quick early tempo, a high leg kick, and some hesitation as he
gathers force at the top of the drive to create some tempo issues. His is a
long body, and his timing to the point of release will waver. The arm action
is quick and short, utilizing a tight arm path to a high three-quarters slot.
He clears his hips efficiently and generates a powerful, long stride to a
consistent foot strike. Everything on the back end of the delivery is clean,
with a fluid finish and easy arm deceleration.
He worked off a relatively straight fastball with plus 91-94 velocity all
night, topping a couple times at 95 (including once in the eighth inning). He
struggled to command the pitch out of the gate, getting too quick with his
lower half and frequently leaving his arm a tick slow. That led to some
elevated pitches, and with minimal movement, hitters had little trouble
squaring up his mistakes. It's an average present pitch with some room to
jump into 55 territory with more consistent command. He leaned on his
secondaries with increasing frequency to settle into a groove, working in a
curve that ran from 73-77 mph depending on how he manipulated its shape, and
a change in the low 80s that stayed on plane with some fade. His change
generated some weaker contact, though his arm speed slowed and his command of
it wandered. The hook showed similar inconsistency; he trusted the pitch,
front-dooring it on occasion and working a slower version into the zone to
steal strikes. But it humped out of his hand and rolled at times, and A&M
hitters squared a few early on. Neither looked like more than an average
pitch with refinement, though there was some raw material there to work with.
Solid sequencing and better execution helped him settle in after giving
up four early runs, and he worked efficiently through 4 2/3 shutout innings
after giving up runs in each of the first three frames. The pitch mix kept
hitters off his fastball, he hit his spots on the regular, and he missed
barrels. That will be his profile when he's going good, but the straight
heater and raw secondaries will give him a thinner margin for developmental
error. It's more of a back-end or swingman profile, but it's one that'll get
him drafted in the first ten rounds.
If they were going to go college guy I would have much more preferred Heath
Quinn, a power bat who destroyed the Cap Cod League and has an excellent arm
in right field. Obviously the Royals see Puckett as a starter but if they did
want a guy who could potentially be a reliever I would have rather had Chad
Hockin who has much better stuff.
That's of course without even mentioning fellow college righty Connor Jones
who was a consensus top 20ish talent and he didn't have much leverage to not
sign really (the Royals would get a comp pick next year if he didn't). There
was also several prep hitters still left that I really liked.
One final thing I want to talk about though is what the Royals could do next
at pick 103. Puckett isn't a signability concern as it's very hard to see his
stock getting much better than it is now and as a college guy he has less
leverage than a high schooler. The Royals could perhaps think about signing
him for underslot and using the savings there to take one of the better
remaining prep guys (whether it be a hitter or pitcher) in the 3rd round with
the money saved. Having said that the 2nd round isn't usually where teams
start playing slot games. Instead usually it's teams with multiple first
round or so picks.
Day 2 of the draft will continue tomorrow as we'll get rounds 3-10 before
moving on to 11-40 Saturday afternoon.
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