Prospect Smackdown: Verlander Vs. Cain Vs. Billingsley
http://0rz.net/5815W
John Sickels 今天在他的網頁上談到了三個頂級 RHP prospects 的比較，分別是
Tigers 的 Justin Verlander，我們的 Matt Cain 還有躲人的 Chad Billingsley
。這三個人再加上 Twins 的 Francisco Liriano（原本也是我們家的 orz），就是
目前最好的四個 pitching prospects。以下是全文，大家可以看看 JS 對 Cain 的
評論，有空的話可以點進去網頁看看其他網友的意見 :)
Prospect Smackdown: Justin Verlander vs. Matt Cain vs. Chad Billingsley
There is a vigorous debate right now in sabermetric circles about these
three young pitchers. . .which one is best? My own ranking is
Verlander/Cain/Billingsley in that order, although I consider these three
pitchers (along with Minnesota lefty Francisco Liriano) as the best pitching
prospects in baseball. But other people have different rankings. I've had
several requests for a smackdown for this trio, so here goes.
BACKGROUND AND INTANGIBLES:
Verlander: Verlander was drafted in the first round in 2004, by the Tigers
out of Old Dominion, second overall. His college career was impressive but
erratic. He showed overpowering stuff, but his mechanics and control were
inconsistent, and there was some concern about how quickly he would adapt to
the upper levels of pro ball.
Those concerns were quickly dispelled in 2005, as he was utterly dominant at
the minor league level. Regarded as intelligent, he sometimes lacked
confidence as an amateur, but looked just fine last year, although he
overthrew to some extent in the majors.
Cain: Cain was a first round pick in 2002, 25th overall, out of high school
in Memphis. He was regarded as being a bit raw when first drafted, but his
development in pro ball was quite smooth. He adjusted very quickly to
professional competition, maturing rapidly emotionally, intellectually, and
physically. He's made the necessary adjustments as he's moved up, and scouts
regard him as possessing the intelligence and confidence necessary to be a
top-notch rotation anchor.
Billingsley: Billingsley was a first round pick in 2003, 24th overall, out
of high school in Defiance, Ohio. He was well-known to scouts for many years
as an amateur, he suffered a bit from "overfamiliarity," in the sense that
scouts knew about him for a long time and started to focus on his weaknesses,
rather than his strengths, some teams seeing him more as a second-rounder on
draft day. The Dodgers have been quite pleased with his pro performance. He's
intelligent and confident, with all of the intangibles necessary to be a top
flight starter.
Comparison: All three pitchers have the mental, intellectual, and emotional
intangibles to be top-notch major league pitchers. Verlander and Billingsley
had higher amateur profiles than Cain, but all three have shown rapid
development over the last two years. It's about as even as you can get here.
PHYSICALITY AND STUFF:
Verlander: Verlander has a good pitcher's build at 6-5, 200 pounds, with
fine overall athleticism and top-notch arm strength. His fastball is 92-93
MPH on a bad day, 98-99 on a good day, and a consistent 94-95 most days. The
fastball has excellent movement as well as velocity. He also has an
above-average curveball, and his changeup proved to be
better-than-advertised. It was erratic in college, but just fine as a pro,
giving him three plus pitches.
Cain: Cain is big and strong at 6-3, 230 pounds. Although reasonably
athletic, he's a big guy and may have to watch his weight as he gets older.
His fastball is excellent at 92-94 MPH, hitting 95-97 MPH at times. His
curveball is above average, and he was more willing to uses his changeup last
year. The change still needs some work, but should be an above average pitch
in time.
Billingsley: At 6-2, 215 pounds, Billingsley has a somewhat stocky build
and some believe he will have to watch his weight as he gets older. However,
he's a fine natural athlete with plus arm strength. His fastball is a
consistent 92-94 MPH pitch, touching 95-96 at times. His curveball and slider
are both considered to be above-average. His changeup is mediocre right now,
but he works hard at it.
Comparison:: Verlander has the best fastball in terms of peak velocity, and
all three can hit the mid-90s. All three also have above-average breaking
balls. All three also need to improve their changeups. I think Verlander has
a slight advantage due to better peak velocity. Physically, Verlander is also
closest to the ideal physical specimen.
PITCHABILITY AND PERFORMANCE:
Verlander: Verlander's statistics in the minors last year were beyond
outstanding: 11-2, with a 1.29 ERA and a 136/26 K/BB in 119 innings. The
Tigers tweaked his mechanics before the season, resulting in much better
command than he showed in college. His power/precision combination was more
than most minor league hitters could deal with.
Cain: Cain went 10-5, 4.39 in the Pacific Coast League, with a 176/73 K/BB
in 146 innings. Given his age (20) and the difficulties of the PCL
environment, his performance was very good. He looked good in seven
late-season starts with the Giants. Stat-wise, Cain's biggest problem is a
higher-than-ideal walk rate. He knows how to pitch and is not a thrower, but
his control is still unreliable on occasion.
Billingsley: Billingsley went 13-6, 3.51 with a 162/50 K/BB in Double-A at
age 20. His component ratios were all very good, and he acquitted himself
well against generally older competition. He understands the intellectual
side of pitching, and is not a thrower, though he needs to use his changeup
more effectively and more often. Although his walk rate was good last year,
he occasionally has trouble with command within the strike zone.
Comparison: Verlander had the best numbers in '05, although both Cain and
Billingsley pitched quite well, especially considering age/competition
factors. Cain did better than Verlander in their major league exposures. All
three have good command for a power pitcher, with Verlander possibly having a
slight edge.
PROJECTION AND HEALTH:
Verlander: Verlander is unlikely to gain additional velocity, being
physically mature right now. Mechanical refinements have eased concerns about
his durability. Injury is a risk for any pitcher, of course, but if he
continues to throw strikes like this, Verlander should be a durable power
pitcher.
Cain: Cain is physically mature and unlikely to pick up additional
velocity. He had some elbow soreness early in his career, but has been
durable the last two seasons.
Billingsley: Billingsley is physically mature for his age and unlikely to
add additional velocity. He's been healthy as both an amateur and a pro, and
his injury risk is no higher than normal for his age group.
Comparison: Cain has the highest injury risk due to his 2003 elbow trouble
and his weaker command. All three are at their physical peaks now and aren't
likely to improve much further from where they currently are in terms of
velocity.
OVERALL:
Overall, I give Verlander a slight edge. Cain ranks a notch ahead of
Billingsley because he has Triple-A and major league experience as opposed to
"just" Double-A success. So I make it Verlander/Cain/Billingsley.
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