2009 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

看板SFGiants作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/11/24 14:19)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/5ju3v3 I can't beline I'm going to say it, but Brian Sabean has actually done a pretty good job in the last year. Although I still think the Rowand signing is a bad idea and the offense is still terrible, the team has a lot of interesting arms and a few offensive prospects that are pretty promising. As I see it, Sabean's main challenges are: - Sorting out the positional logjams. Sandoval's got a strong arm and is a much better athlete than he looks like - he can do a little more than fake 3B, though he's raw and unlikely to ever be strong there. He can handle the tools of ignorance too, but Posey's coming up behind him. 1B is likely where Villalona will end up, too. I'd probably give Sandoval first shot at 3B until he proves he can't handle it. The Giants also need to see what they can do with the Lewis/Rowand/Winn outfield - all 3 could be playing center for other teams and it's one of the few organizational surpluses at the MLB level. I'd certainly try to trade Winn at least. - Thinning out the Ortmeier Cloud. The Giants have about a million positional players in the 4th OF/5th IF variety and they need to spend time sorting out who they want as a part of the team going forward. They need to know about players like Schierholtz, Bowker, Frandsen, and Ishikawa, because if there's no serious attempt to figure out just what they can do, they're wasting space on the 40-man roster. All of them are old enough that just hanging around on the fringes of the majors will enhance their trade value. - Resisting the temptation to short-circuit rebuilding. The rotation looks solid, even if ZiPS yearly too-optimistic look at Barry Zito fails to pan out, and a few lucky seasons from the offense and the Giants are competing in a very bad division. Getting, say, Brian Roberts for Sandoval/Tanner/Romo is a bad idea if it's just to charge for 83 wins and get into the playoffs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Pablo Sandoval# c 22 .284 .313 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 Vg AVERAGE Bengie Molina c 34 .283 .312 .423 123 452 38 128 22 1 13 58 16 41 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Stephen Holm c 29 .238 .312 .365 57 181 18 43 8 0 5 21 17 35 Av Eliezer Alfonzo c 30 .255 .290 .396 76 255 23 65 13 1 7 30 9 61 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Josh Phelps 1b 31 .273 .339 .457 115 403 47 110 22 2 16 58 35 93 Fr Nate Schierholtz*rf 25 .296 .329 .461 126 469 62 139 28 5 13 63 18 62 Av FAIR Pablo Sandoval# c 22 .284 .313 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 Av Brett Harper* 1b 27 .272 .306 .438 104 338 36 92 20 0 12 47 15 64 Fr POOR Scott McClain 1b 37 .254 .318 .411 129 460 55 117 22 1 16 60 43 84 Av Brian Horwitz lf 26 .277 .336 .370 120 386 41 107 16 1 6 39 32 47 Av Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 Av John Bowker* 1b 25 .258 .306 .421 139 484 54 125 22 3 17 64 29 95 Av Travis Ishikawa* 1b 25 .242 .300 .431 124 450 53 109 26 1 19 63 34 95 Av Rich Aurilia 1b 37 .268 .318 .374 99 302 28 81 15 1 5 32 21 42 Av Dan Ortmeier# lf 28 .238 .286 .368 101 345 37 82 16 1 9 39 21 72 Av Angel Villalona 1b 18 .225 .261 .378 123 476 46 107 22 0 17 58 13 97 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG FAIR Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 Fr Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 Av POOR Eugenio Velez# lf 27 .266 .307 .386 133 448 57 119 23 8 5 45 24 73 Pr Ivan Ochoa# ss 26 .256 .314 .333 112 363 42 93 15 2 3 32 25 70 Av Travis Denker 2b 23 .226 .297 .340 135 477 46 108 22 1 10 50 45 82 Av Emmanuel Burriss#ss 24 .254 .307 .294 123 425 58 108 12 1 1 31 29 46 Vg Brian Bocock ss 24 .195 .256 .247 100 369 34 72 13 0 2 25 30 84 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pablo Sandoval# c 22 .284 .313 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 Fr FAIR Scott McClain 1b 37 .254 .318 .411 129 460 55 117 22 1 16 60 43 84 Fr POOR Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 Av Rich Aurilia 1b 37 .268 .318 .374 99 302 28 81 15 1 5 32 21 42 Fr Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 Av Travis Denker 2b 23 .226 .297 .340 135 477 46 108 22 1 10 50 45 82 Av Ryan Rohlinger 3b 25 .229 .284 .360 139 520 62 119 24 1 14 58 35 74 Vg Angel Villalona 1b 18 .225 .261 .378 123 476 46 107 22 0 17 58 13 97 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 Pr FAIR Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 Fr Ivan Ochoa# ss 26 .256 .314 .333 112 363 42 93 15 2 3 32 25 70 Av POOR Emmanuel Burriss#ss 24 .254 .307 .294 123 425 58 108 12 1 1 31 29 46 Vg Omar Vizquel# ss 42 .227 .285 .277 87 282 27 64 9 1 1 20 24 28 Ex Brian Bocock ss 24 .195 .256 .247 100 369 34 72 13 0 2 25 30 84 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nate Schierholtz*rf 25 .296 .329 .461 126 469 62 139 28 5 13 63 18 62 Av Randy Winn# rf 35 .287 .345 .413 136 523 69 150 32 2 10 60 45 73 Av Fred Lewis* lf 28 .267 .342 .416 131 450 75 120 21 8 10 54 50 108 Vg POOR Brett Harper* 1b 27 .272 .306 .438 104 338 36 92 20 0 12 47 15 64 Pr Brian Horwitz lf 26 .277 .336 .370 120 386 41 107 16 1 6 39 32 47 Av Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 Vg John Bowker* 1b 25 .258 .306 .421 139 484 54 125 22 3 17 64 29 95 Av Kevin Frandsen 2b 27 .269 .325 .370 112 338 42 91 20 1 4 34 21 33 Av Dave Roberts* lf 37 .247 .330 .333 67 198 29 49 8 3 1 17 25 35 Av Eugenio Velez# lf 27 .266 .307 .386 133 448 57 119 23 8 5 45 24 73 Vg Dan Ortmeier# lf 28 .238 .286 .368 101 345 37 82 16 1 9 39 21 72 Av Ben Copeland* rf 25 .239 .300 .338 118 461 58 110 21 2 7 43 39 67 Vg Clay Timpner* cf 26 .255 .296 .335 121 451 51 115 15 3 5 40 25 65 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Randy Winn# rf 35 .287 .345 .413 136 523 69 150 32 2 10 60 45 73 Av Aaron Rowand cf 31 .278 .346 .420 143 528 68 147 34 1 13 65 39 105 Av AVERAGE Fred Lewis* lf 28 .267 .342 .416 131 450 75 120 21 8 10 54 50 108 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Justin Leone lf 32 .242 .323 .376 103 364 45 88 17 1 10 42 42 81 Pr John Bowker* 1b 25 .258 .306 .421 139 484 54 125 22 3 17 64 29 95 Pr POOR Dave Roberts* lf 37 .247 .330 .333 67 198 29 49 8 3 1 17 25 35 Fr Eugenio Velez# lf 27 .266 .307 .386 133 448 57 119 23 8 5 45 24 73 Av Dan Ortmeier# lf 28 .238 .286 .368 101 345 37 82 16 1 9 39 21 72 Fr Ben Copeland* rf 25 .239 .300 .338 118 461 58 110 21 2 7 43 39 67 Fr Clay Timpner* cf 26 .255 .296 .335 121 451 51 115 15 3 5 40 25 65 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Tim Lincecum 25 3.00 14 6 32 31 204.0 169 68 12 82 222 Matt Cain 24 3.62 13 10 34 34 219.0 201 88 16 86 183 MIDDLE THIRD Jonathan Sanchez* 26 4.28 6 6 28 18 103.0 97 49 9 53 98 Tim Alderson 20 4.34 8 10 27 27 145.0 149 70 17 46 104 Barry Zito* 31 4.37 10 12 29 29 173.0 167 84 16 85 129 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Clayton Tanner* 21 4.64 8 12 27 25 130.0 147 67 10 46 51 Noah Lowry* 28 4.73 6 9 20 20 116.0 127 61 12 53 60 BOTTOM THIRD Matt Palmer 30 5.15 6 11 27 24 138.0 157 79 16 57 78 Pat Misch* 27 5.24 4 8 34 17 127.0 147 74 20 37 77 Ben Snyder* 23 5.51 7 13 29 26 147.0 173 90 23 52 74 Steve Hammond* 27 5.63 6 12 25 24 136.0 161 85 20 46 67 Nick Pereira 26 5.64 5 10 22 22 118.0 137 74 16 60 66 Henry Sosa 23 5.86 3 8 20 18 83.0 96 54 13 39 46 Victor Santos 32 6.34 2 7 20 17 88.0 111 62 17 40 53 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K MIDDLE THIRD Jeremy Affeldt* 30 3.44 2 2 71 0 68.0 63 26 5 25 61 Osiris Matos 24 3.76 3 2 50 0 67.0 66 28 5 24 45 Brian Wilson 27 3.77 4 3 61 0 62.0 57 26 3 34 54 Keiichi Yabu 40 3.86 3 3 48 0 63.0 60 27 4 27 48 Sergio Romo 26 4.02 4 4 51 0 65.0 63 29 9 19 51 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tyler Walker 33 4.50 4 4 48 0 44.0 44 22 5 17 36 BOTTOM THIRD Vinnie Chulk 30 4.57 3 4 58 1 63.0 64 32 8 25 50 Alexander Hinshaw* 26 4.70 1 2 47 0 44.0 40 23 6 33 44 Ryan Sadowski 26 4.71 5 6 40 8 86.0 93 45 8 37 51 Julio Mateo 31 4.72 3 5 37 3 61.0 70 32 7 13 31 Jack Taschner* 31 4.75 3 4 65 0 55.0 57 29 6 25 49 Eugene Espineli* 26 4.81 4 7 36 11 101.0 118 54 10 29 47 Kevin Correia 28 5.07 3 5 35 12 94.0 105 53 12 40 60 Bill Sadler 27 4.94 1 2 42 0 51.0 47 28 7 39 48 Kelvin Pichardo 23 5.29 3 5 48 0 63.0 66 37 8 38 42 Erick Threets* 27 5.29 2 5 47 3 68.0 71 40 7 46 38 Merkin Valdez 27 5.33 2 3 29 6 54.0 58 32 7 30 37 Kevin Gryboski 35 6.26 2 5 40 0 46.0 56 32 7 23 21 * - Throws Left --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Pablo Sandoval AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Projection .284 .312 .455 129 517 72 147 33 2 17 71 21 55 2 2 98 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Ivan Rodriguez (obviously not D), Benito Santiago Offense % STAR 26 AVG 73 REP LV 99 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 0 >10 0 >200 0 >140 0 >.375 0 >5 8 >150 35 >120 8 >.350 9 >100 42 >.325 39 2B % >80 83 >.300 72 >45 0 >60 99 >30 65 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 1 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 3 >.500 11 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 23 >.450 44 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 60 >.400 83 >20 20 >10 0 >.250 87 >.350 98 >10 90 --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Aaron Rowand AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Projection .278 .346 .420 143 528 68 147 34 1 13 65 39 105 17 5 100 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Don Demeter, Curt Flood Offense % STAR 26 AVG 69 REP LV 99 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % >160 0 >.400 1 >10 0 >200 0 >140 2 >.375 14 >5 7 >150 21 >120 15 >.350 47 >100 53 >.325 83 2B % >80 93 >.300 98 >45 2 >60 100 >30 70 BA % SLG % HR % SB % >.350 0 >.550 2 >50 0 >70 0 >.325 1 >.500 10 >40 0 >50 0 >.300 14 >.450 28 >30 0 >30 0 >.275 47 >.400 70 >20 16 >10 16 >.250 85 >.350 98 >10 81 --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Tim Lincecum ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 3.00 14 6 32 31 204 169 68 12 82 222 145 Top Near-Age Comps: Steve Busby, Bert Blyleven ERA % Top 1/3 87 Mid 1/3 9 Bot 1/3 5 ERA+ % BB % >150 46 <34 0 >140 57 <45 2 >130 65 <57 9 >120 75 <68 30 >110 84 <79 48 >100 91 <91 68 >90 95 >80 98 HR % >70 99 <11 38 <23 91 K % <34 98 >204 68 <45 100 >181 89 >159 95 >136 99 --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Matt Cain ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 3.62 13 10 34 34 219 201 88 16 86 183 120 ERA % Top 1/3 72 Mid 1/3 21 Bot 1/3 6 ERA+ % BB % >150 23 <37 1 >140 32 <49 4 >130 42 <61 12 >120 55 <73 36 >110 68 <85 56 >100 82 <97 75 >90 92 >80 98 HR % >70 100 <12 28 <24 81 K % <37 97 >219 13 <49 100 >195 28 >170 59 >146 88 Top Near-Age Comps: Greg Maddux, Wes Ferrell --------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ >140 Phelps 3 Schierholtz 2 Bowker 1 OBP >.400 Lewis 2 Roberts 2 Rowand 1 SLG >.550 Bowker 4 Harper 4 Phelps 3 BA >.325 Schierholtz 11 Sandoval 3 Molina 3 2B >45 Rowand 2 3B >10 Lewis 19 Velez 15 HR >30 Bowker 6 SB >50 Burriss 20 Velez 13 Timpner 2 SUB-REPLACEMENT Bocock 95 Copeland 80 Ortmeier 68 ERA+ >140 Lincecum 57 Affeldt 33 Cain 32 K/9 >9 Lincecum 68 Hinshaw 43 Sadler 32 BB/9 <1.5 Mateo 15 Espineli 9 Romo 8 HR/9 <0.5 Wilson 50 Lincecum 38 Cain 28 SUB-REPLACEMENT Gryboski 97 Valdez 88 Santos 86 All figures in % based on projection playing time. Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More informationis always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.7.59