San Francisco Giants Top-15 Prospects of 2009: No's 1 - 5

看板SFGiants作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/12/13 00:53)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/5hfd6n For an overviwe of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use to determine where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts. If you disagree, you can make your case by contacting me. You can find a full listing of each team's top prospect list in the Top Prospects of 2009 Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team's best fan sites. The last team in the NL West are the San Francisco Giants... =============================================================================== 1. Madison Bumgarner | LHP | Single-A Augusta | Age - 19 | Drafted - Round 1 (10), 2007 Fastball - 65 Now | 70 Future Curveball - 45 | 55 Change-Up - 35 | 45 Control - 50 | 55 Command - 50 | 60 Pitchability - 45 | 55 Final Grade - A- Body Type - strong, durable, athletic, and projectable Stuff Fastball - electric...he can spot it where he wants...has shows plus-plus velocity at times and he's deceptive in that he hides the ball well, making it difficult for hitters to pick it up out of his hands. You can see the pitch below: Curveball - improving, but needs to be more consistent...it's more of a slurvy pitch, which works better with his arm angle. Change-Up - still developing, he needs to work on maintaining his arm speed, but he shows a solid feel for the pitch. By the Numbers - Showed terrific command complemented by dominance--he struck out close to 30% of batters faced, while walking just 4%. Over the course of his final month, Bumgarner had a K% of 41 and a BB% of 2.6...those are absurd numbers. He's a fly ball pitcher, but that should play fine in a park like San Francisco's. Mechanics He's fast, aggressive, and doesn't hold back. Notice how in the above clip he's drifting through his balance point...take note of the tremendous scap loading, the excellent separation between his torso, hips, and shoulder. This clip really helps exemplifies the separation: Look at how far back Bumgarner's arm is before it rotates into release--the more distance the arm has to travel, the greater the pitcher's velocity is going to be. Tremendous... Bumgarner throws across his body, which you can look at as a negative; but this cross-body motion makes it more difficult for the hitter to pick up the ball out of his hand. His finish is a little short and there is some recoil at the end of his delivery. Also his front side mechanics--they get the job done, but he leaves his glove more down by his side instead of in front of his chest, but I'm nitpicking here. Bottom line...Bumgarner has a chance to be special, especially if he can continue to hone is secondary offerings. Best Case Outcome - No. 1 starter More Likely Outcome - No. 2 starter =============================================================================== 2. Buster Posey | C | B - R | AZL (Rookie) | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 1 (5), 2008 Contact - 45 Now | 55 Future Power - 40 | 50 Discipline - 45 | 55 Speed - 40 | 40 Defense - 55 | 60 Arm - 55 | 55 Instincts - 50 | 60 Final Grade - B+ Body Type - athletic, especially for a catcher, but also a heavier lower half Scouting Report I completed a scouting report on Posey back in August. Since then, he's torn up Rookie ball in the AZL (which was expected) by posting a 1.176 OPS including a K:BB ratio of less than one. He then took his game to the Hawaii Winter League where he posted a respectable .797 OPS. I wouldn't put too much stock into that number, however. Remember, Matt Wieters posted an OPS of .779 when he played down there. Best Case Outcome - Top-5 catcher, potential all-star More Likely Outcome - Top-12 catcher...he's a very good offensive catcher, but there are still questions for exactly how much power he'll hit for. =============================================================================== 3. Tim Alderson | RHP | A+ San Jose | Age - 20 | Drafted - Round 1 (22), 2007 Fastball - 50 Now | 55 Future Curveball - 50 | 60 Change-Up - 40 | 45 Control - 50 | 60 Command - 45 | 55 Pitchability - 50 | 60 Final Grade - B+ Body Type - tall, but coordinated and athletic Stuff Fastball - sits between 90 and 94, but it plays up velocity wise and I'll get into that in a bit Curveball - of the more harder variety, between 78 - 80 mph and also plays up some--again, I'll get more into that later Change-Up - still developing, showed some improvement throughout the year and the pitch should be much more useable next year Mechanics Pitched solely from the stretch out of high school, but the Giants had him incorporate a wind-up as a professional. Overall, he's deceptive, hard to pick up, stays closed. This deceptiveness makes his fastball seem much more explosive He's got a lot of moving parts, especially in his lower body...employs a step-over move to kick-start his hip rotation. This active lower body gears the hitter up for something hard, only to have their timing thrown off when he drops his curveball in. If a pitcher looks as if they will throw something hard, the hitter will prepare to hit something hard. This is how his mechanics help his curveball play up. He's made a few adjustments to his mechanics since being drafted. His arm action has been cleaned up a bit and he's increased his stride length. He's also finishing his pitches better...look at how he gets out in front in the clip on the right. Alderson's draft video (left and pulled from this article by Carlos Gomez) shows him with a more abrupt finish, but he's now achieving that upper body tilt and extension and giving his arm more room to decelerate. His front side mechanics have always been good, but he's also shored up this aspect of his mechanics. He maintains a firm glove out in front of the chest...he stays closed and brings the chest to his glove. Alderson's front side mechanics are a major factor to his plus control and command. Overall, his stuff isn't overpowering but it plays up because of his command, intellect, and mechanics. Best Case Outcome - No. 2 starter More Likely Outcome - Strong No. 3 starter =============================================================================== 4. Pablo Sandoval | C | B - B | Double-A Connecticut/MLB | Age - 22 | Signed - Venezuela, 2002 Contact - 55 Now | 55 Future Power - 50 | 50 Discipline - 40 | 45 Speed - 40 | 40 Defense - 50 | 50 Arm - 60 | 60 Instincts - 45 | 50 Final Grade - B/B+ Before I begin, I understand that Pablo Sandoval is really not qualified as a prospect anymore under my standards (>100 MLB ABs), but I'm making an exception for him because I think he's an interesting player to look at... Body Type - short, but heavy...little projection Scouting Report I really like Sandoval's swing. He's aggressive, swings HARD with plenty of intent, and takes a long stride into foot plant without hindering his hip rotation. In addition, he keeps a short path to the ball by allowing the bat to stay connected with his body during his stride. Sandoval swings and misses in the clip below, but it's the process that's important, not the result in this particular instance. This leads for a very nice combination of contact/batting average and power. Sandoval's drawback is his plate discipline. He's a high contact hitter, but also doesn't walk much and needs to be a little more selective...he does show an ability, however, to adjust to off-speed pitches. Defense - This is where things get interesting because Sandoval can play three positions: first base, catcher, and third base. The difference between offensive value at each position is enormous, especially between the two extremes: first base and catcher. Sandoval can play all three capably and would obviously have the most value at catcher, which also happens to be his best defensive position. He would also have a ton of value if the Giants were to play him at all three positions, but I'm not sure the Giants are prepared to do that. Best Case Outcome - The potential is there to be a top- 5 catcher, but he becomes an average player at first base and a top-12 player at third base. If he were slated to play catcher, I would move his grade to B+ More Likely Outcome - Top-10 catcher, slightly below average first baseman, or average third baseman. =============================================================================== 5. Angel Villalona | 1b | B - R | Single-A Augusta | Age - 18 | Signed - Dominican Republic Contact - 40 Now | 50 Future Power - 50 | 60/65 Discipline - 35 | 45 Speed - 40 | 35 Defense - 50 | 50 Arm - 55 | 55 Instincts - 35 | 45 Final Grade - B Body Type - big kid, needs to watch his weight...he's only 17, but is he that projectable? Scouting Report He's extremely young for his level--at 17, he was close to nine months younger than his peer hitters in the Sally League. So his numbers--which were pretty ordinary--aren't too big a deal. The power numbers are already strong (.172 ISO) and should improve going forward, but he's still very raw in the aspects of baseball where experience really helps--for instance, he walked just 3.6% of the time last year and struck out 23.5% of the time, so his plate discipline needs a lot of work. His raw power rates as plus to plus-plus, though it's not showing up at quite that level yet. He shows terrific bat speed, a mechanically sound swing, and the ability to make hard contact. Villalona is not your typical ultra-talented, projectable athlete displaying his natural young ability at a young age. He's already physically mature and I wonder how much more room he has to fill out his already large frame. He's already limited to first base. Best Case Outcome - Middle of the line-up bat More Likely Outcome - Average to slightly above average everyday first baseman -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3