[農場] San Francisco Giants Top 5
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1. Madison Bumgarner(LHP)
A hitting-starved team, the Giants made a statement when they selected
Madison Bumgarner ahead of Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez and Beau Mills in
the 2007 draft. Twenty-two months have since passed, and I doubt many people
would fault them for their decision -- I'm sure more than a few would prefer
Heyward, though. Bumgarner is an athletic, 6-foot-4, 215-pound lefty with a
plus-plus fastball and a secondary that's just that: secondary. Go check for
Bumgarner on your favorite prospect publication's 2007 Top 100. Unless we're
your pick, you probably won't find him. Entering last season, we were well
aware of the fact that Bumgarner's dad did not allow him to throw a breaking
ball until he was 16. He turned 16 the fall after his sophomore season in
high school, leaving him with two prep seasons to develop a breaking ball.
Barry Zito, on the other hand, started throwing his curve when he was in
Huggies. We saw Bumgarner as a great athlete with a great fastball, which led
-- and still leads -- us to believe that he'll be able to learn to perfect
keeping hitters off-balance with his breaking ball and changeup.
Bumgarner still hasn't thrown a pitch above Low-A, but he could conquer
multiple levels in 2009. He dominated the South Atlantic League last season
(29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 44% GB). We see his low walk rate as an additional
indicator that he's able to command his secondary pitches. An intimidator on
the mound who has shown signs that he's maturing into a polished pitcher
quickly, Bumgarner has ace upside that he could begin recognizing in the bigs
as soon as 2010.
2. Buster Posey (C)
Posey joined Gordon Beckham as one of 2008's biggest NCAA breakout hitters. A
6-foot-2, 190-pound catcher, Posey is an exceptional contact hitter with a
good batting eye and decent power. The biggest pro sample that we have for
Posey is from Hawaii (.054 IsoP, 8.3% BB, 17.9% K in 84 PA). That's not a
sample that we feel very comfortable drawing conclusions from, but we're
hesitant to think of Posey as more than a gap-to-gap power hitter right now.
Still, his bat could be above-average for an up-the-middle defender.
3. Tim Alderson(RHP)
Alderson proved that he was among the most polished prep arms in the 2007
draft with his impressive pro debut. A guy who didn't pitch out of the windup
in high school, Alderson struck out 21.3% of the 581 High-A batters he faced
while walking 5.9% and inducing ground balls 45% of the time. His
145.1-inning workload makes him a legitimate option to start some big league
games in 2009. We wouldn't be at all surprised to see Alderson open 2010 in
the Giants' rotation. The 6-foot-6, 217-pound righty's relative lack of
strikeouts leads us to question his upside. Entering the draft, his fastball
was considered slightly above-average, his curve a potential plus pitch and
his command plus-plus (source). Sans David Price, Alderson may be the safest
bet in the minors to turn out a lengthly big league career. Even if he
doesn't wind up being an ace, he could be an above-average starter for over a
decade.
4. Angel Villalona(1B)
I still crack up when I read the San Francisco Chronicle's sub-headline about
the Giants signing Villalona: 16-year-old holds 40/40 promise. Someone took
an awful piece of information and ran with it. Villalona is to baby fat what
Pablo Sandoval is to roly-poly. The 6-foot-3, 200-pounder's prospect calling
card is his power upside -- .172 IsoP as a teenager last year in full-season
ball. He's not fast. He's not a great bet to be an above-average defender.
He's not a disciplined hitter (3.6% BB last year). Power is sexy. Villalona's
floor isn't. Though he was the 2nd-youngest player in Low-A last season, he
only managed a .321 overall wOBA. Villalona supporters can pretend he
finished with an awesome August last year all they want, but the reality is
his .351 BABIP from that month (16% LD) was likely more a product of bad
defense, rough infields, and good luck than any kind of breakout. Villalona's
youth and raw power have helped him become one of the most overhyped
prospects in baseball. I see Villalona as a poor bet to ever surface as an
above-average regular.
5. Conor Gillaspie(3B)
According to a study done by our own Lincoln Hamilton, Gillaspie was one of
the most productive hitters in the NCAA last year. He had an elite strikeout
rate (8.09% vs. Posey's 8.92%), walked a decent amount (13.97% vs. Posey's
17.54%), and didn't hit for much power. Gillaspie did, however, register as
one of the most efficient base runners among the elite college bats in the
2008 draft class. The 6-foot-1, 200 pound lefthanded hitter logged 105 plate
appearances between rookie ball and short-season ball in his pro debut. He
was not impressive during this small sample of trips to the plate (.075 IsoP,
11.4% BB, 13.3% K, average runner). At lease one scouting voice doesn't see
him as more than a potential adequate defender. Due to his strong contact
skills, we see Gillaspie as a sound bet to become a big leaguer. His ceiling
appears to be pretty limited, though.
Honorables: Nick Noonan (2B), Travis Ishikawa (1B), Wendell Fairley (CF),
and Rafael Rodrgiuez (OF).
Nick Noonan(2B)
The 32nd overall pick of the 2007 draft, Noonan is a physically mature
teenager with good power for a middle infielder. If he cannot stick at second
base -- and he may not be able to -- then his upside will take quite a hit.
Noonan put up a .137 isolated power, 4.5% walk rate, and 18.5% strikeout rate
in Low-A last season. He was outstanding in 121 August plate appearances
(.200 IsoP, 10.7% BB, 19.0% K). High-A San Jose is a tough place to hit, so
hopefully Noonan's overall California League numbers won't be too skewed and
we can get a better idea of the kind of player he is. I have Noonan as a guy
with above-average speed. This may be more a factor of his good instincts
than raw speed. Noonan is a 2009 breakout candidate. If he can continue to
improve his walk rate and defense, he could enter 2010 as the top second base
prospect in baseball.
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03/11 09:46, , 1F
03/11 09:46, 1F
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