[翻譯] Pick-A-Penny

看板SFGiants作者Motownjunk ( )時間16年前 (2009/09/01 04:34)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串1/1

Pick-A-Penny Posted August 27th, 2009 by Chris http://www.baycityball.com/2009/08/27/pick-a-penny/ Penny will be placed on release waivers tomorrow and clear them on Monday. He can talk to other teams while on waivers, but he can’t formally enter into a contract until he clears. He would like the opportunity to start, which probably wasn’t going to happen in Boston. 『 Penny將在週一通過 waiver。在此之前他可以和其他球隊交涉，但在通過waiver 之前無法正式取得合約。他尋求著一席先發地位，這是波士頓無法提供。』 Penny, the former Dodger and disgruntled right-hander, became the odd man out after the Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner to strengthen their bullpen. And with Tim Wakefield starting again, the team chose to release Penny. After Penny clears waivers on Monday, he’ll be free to sign with any team. He’s made his preference well known that he’d like to start. The bonus with signing Penny by the end of August is that he would make the cut-off for post season rosters. Penny，這位曾是道奇一員的壞脾氣投手，在紅襪得到 Billy Wagner以強化牛棚後，成了波士頓的冗員。球隊選擇讓 Tim Wakefield 再度登板先發，然後釋出 Penny 。週一通過 waiver 之後，他將取得自由之身。眾所周知他渴望回到先發輪值圈中。在八月盡頭簽下 Penny 的另一個好處是，他還能搭上季後賽名單的末班車。 Should the Giants consider bringing him aboard? 巨人該考慮把他弄過來嗎？ I think you’ve got to at least consider it. After missing most of 2008 (save for 94.2 IP) with an arm injury, the Red Sox signed Penny to a 1-year incentive laden deal over the offseason. On the surface his tenure in Boston doesn’t look very appealing — 131.2 IP, 160 H, 5.61 ERA. But, underneath things, there are some encouraging signs. First, Penny has regained some of the velocity on his fastball. According to Fangraphs’ pitch data, the average Penny fastball thrown this year has been clocked at 94 mph. That’s a near +2 mph increase off his injury shortened ‘08. 先別急著一口回絕。手傷錯失2008球季大半後（該年度他僅登板94.2局），紅襪與 Penny 在季末簽下帶有激勵條款的一年短約。帳面上他的紅襪歲月似乎不怎麼光采──131.2 IP ，160 H， 5.61 ERA。但更深入地挖掘一些，正面消息還是存在的。首先，Penny 找回了他的球速。根據 Fangraphs資料顯示，Penny 今年的速球均速來到94 mph，比他因傷所苦的2008年快上 2 mph。 Secondly, Penny’s BB/9 in ‘08 shot up to 3.99 walks per 9 innings, indicating that his arm troubles could have affected his command. This year with the Red Sox Penny has regained his strike-throwing form with a 2.87 BB/9. That’s in line with is career BB/9 of 2.92. 其次，Penny 的 BB/9於去年暴漲至 3.99，明顯指出他的手傷可能也連帶影響了控球。今年的 Penny也找回攻擊好球袋的能力，BB/9下降到 2.87，與他生涯平均 2.92相去不遠。 Third, Penny has posted a slightly better than league average FIP in the American League (a tougher offensive league than the NL because of the DH) and has been worth +2.1 WAR on the season. You could probably shave a few points off of his 4.48 FIP if he transitioned to the NL. 第三，Penny 的 FIP在美聯眾家投手中稱得上略優，本季他貢獻了+2.1的 WAR。考量美聯擁有火力強大的DH群，他的 4.48 FIP在國聯當仍有下降空間。 What’s killed Penny this year has been, primarily, two things. He has had terrible luck at stranding runners on base. His LOB% currently stands at 64.4%. That’s the 2nd lowest LOB% in baseball. For comparison, Matt Cain has stranded over 85% of the runners he’s allowed on base this year. That’s the best LOB% in baseball. The league average for LOB% tends to hover around 70% and often pitchers will look worse (or much better) because they’ve either had really good or bad luck at stranding runners. If you adjusted Penny closer to a 70% LOB%, he’s going to look a bit better. 本季 Penny的受挫基本上可歸咎於兩大主因。由於負運使然，他無法把跑者留在壘上，他的 64.4% LOB%排名全大聯盟第二低。相對而言，Matt Cain的殘壘率竟超過 85%，領先全聯盟。聯盟平均殘壘率大約在 70%上下震盪，投手們由於運氣或好或惡，帳面數據也隨之起伏。而如果將 Penny的殘壘率調整到 70%，他的數字就好看多了。 In addition to his LOB problems, Penny’s curveball has been absolutely crushed this year by opposing hitters. By Fangraphs’ pitch-type linear values, Penny’s curveball has been worth -16 runs (or about -1.6 wins). That ’s easily the worst curveball in the majors among starters by the linear weights metric. Quickly eyeballing Penny’s PFX numbers, his curveball appears to have the same vertical break that it’s always had. He’s throwing it at the same velocity, too. Penny’s curveball has always played as an average pitch for him. Check out the run values on it during the past 5 seasons: -3.2, 0.8, 1.1, 0.8, and -16 runs. Which number looks out of place? 從他的殘壘問題再談下去，Penny 的曲球今年被打者轟了個七葷八素。Fangraphs 的球種價值呈現 Penny的曲球，價值-16 runs （大約-1.6 wins）。這是所有大聯盟先發投手中最好攻擊的一顆球。快速檢閱一下 Penny的 PFX數字，這顆曲球的變化品質一如往常，速度也與過去彷彿。以往這顆曲球是 Penny平均水準的武器，看看過去五季它的run values ：-3.2， 0.8， 1.1， 0.8，以及-16 runs。哪個數字是極端值呢？ So, we’ve got a pitcher that’s pitched like a league average pitcher in a tougher offensive league. He’s regained some velocity on his fastball. He’s had poor luck with stranding runners. And a pitch that was previously a solid pitch for him, has rated as the worst pitch in baseball for that pitch type. To me, it seems like Penny has good upside to take a chance on. He would slot into the Giants rotation as the 5th starter by replacing Joe Martinez. The Giants could then send Martinez to the bullpen to pitch in a long relief role. The Giants would improve their rotation and bullpen with one aquisition — Miller or Merkin Valdez would most likely get pushed out of the bullpen. Ideally, the Giants would improve their hitting over the last stage of this season, but if an upgrade like Penny presents itself, I think you’ve got to take advantage of it. 那麼，我們看到一位在強力美聯投出聯盟平均水準的投手。他的球速漸漸回來了。他的製造殘壘的運氣衰得驚人。而他那顆一向穩健的武器球今年人人打得順手。對我而言 Penny 的前景似乎會越來越好。他可以取代 Joe Martinez 在巨人輪值圈中扛起五號位。球隊可將 Martinez送到牛棚當長中繼，也許擠掉 Miller或 Merkin Valdez，先發與後援都得到升級。理想狀況下，巨人在最後階段應該補強攻擊火力，但如果天上掉下來 Penny，哪有不揀的道理？ I hate myself for saying it but, sign Brad Penny. 我痛恨自己說出這句話，但，請簽下 Brad Penny。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.216.115.156