[討論] Lincecum, King Felix lead parade of young star pitchers
Jon Paul Morosi
Updated Feb 12, 2010 2:45 PM ET
I have my doubts about Generation Y. Maybe that's because I'm part of it.
We spend too much time on Facebook. We are easily distracted by YouTube. We
waste money on expensive coffee. We aren't terribly motivated. We will think
about changing our ways ... tomorrow.
Yet, as lazy as we're perceived to be, our age group has produced a
collection of arms for the ages.
The last generation had Roger Clemens. He was last seen defending his legacy
against steroid allegations. So, yeah, we're pretty happy with Tim Lincecum,
Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander.
If you're a baseball fan between the ages of 20 and 30, chances are very good
that a stud pitcher born within a few months of you will be carving up
major-league hitters each night this summer. This is historic stuff. And
despite our tweet-length attention spans, I think we're smart enough to
recognize good fortune when it comes our way.
"I can't recall this impressive of a young group in a long time," one veteran
scout told me this week. And for the record, this scout is older than Felix.
So, with our (better-paid) brethren set to report for work next week, here's
my ranking of the best pitchers who will be 25 or younger on Opening Day.
(Greinke and Verlander are too old for this list. Hey, had to draw the line
somewhere.) The pitchers' impact in the majors -- this year -- is the
determining factor.
I had just one additional rule: The pitchers must have already made their
big-league debuts. Sorry, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman and Yu Darvish.
1. Tim Lincecum, RHP, Giants
The case for Lincecum in this spot is probably similar to the more important
one being prepared by his agents: Quite simply, the guy won the last two
National League Cy Young awards. Win, lose or settle in salary arbitration,
he will set the new record for a first-time eligible starting pitcher. That's
what happens when you go 33-12 with a 2.55 ERA over two seasons.
2. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Mariners
Trading for Cliff Lee was nice, but signing Hernandez was crucial to the
Mariners' long-term viability as an American League West contender. Hernandez
won't turn 24 until shortly after Opening Day, and he's only getting better.
He had better overall numbers during his first four full seasons than CC
Sabathia, the recent standard to which young starters are measured.
3. Matt Cain, RHP, Giants
Ignore the 44-51 career record. You can blame the anemic San Francisco
offense for that. The mere fact that Cain has been involved in that many
decisions by age 25 tells you something. He has surpassed 200 innings in each
of the past three years, and last season was his best yet. He isn't the
best-known pitcher on his own staff, but he's awfully good.
4. Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers
At 20 last year, he was the youngest player in the American League. He showed
his mettle by allowing only one earned run in the season's 163rd game,
against the Twins at a raucous Metrodome. Over his final eight starts, his
ERA was 2.83. You get the idea: He became a top performer when the Tigers
needed him most -- a truly remarkable trait when considering he couldn't take
a legal drink until after Christmas.
5. Brett Anderson, LHP, A's
If you're in bed each night by 10 p.m. Eastern, you probably don't know much
about Anderson. Well, you will. One scout made the following statement about
the deal that sent him from Arizona to Oakland: "When history is written,
Brett Anderson for Dan Haren, straight-up, would have been fair."
Translation: Anderson is as valuable as the guy who started the 2007 All-Star
Game. As a 21-year-old rookie last year, the lefty was better in the second
half than the first.
6. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves
The Braves took a PR hit last June when they released future Hall of Famer
Tom Glavine and inserted Hanson into an open rotation spot. But Hanson, now
23, helped the team save face, to say the very least. He earned 11 wins in
only 21 starts, with a sparkling 2.89 ERA. Had he been in the majors for the
entire season, he likely would have been the National League Rookie of the
Year.
7. Jair Jurrjens, RHP, Braves
Let's allow Tigers fans a moment to reflect on what a
Verlander-Jurrjens-Porcello rotation would have looked like. Finished yet?
No? I'm sorry. Yes, Edgar Renteria has joined A.J. Pierzynski among the
accomplished players who know what it's like to be the Bad Guy in a lopsided
trade. Jurrjens, 24, has logged more than 400 innings (with a 3.10 ERA) over
the past two years.
8. John Danks, LHP, White Sox
I don't get it. Danks is a former first-round pick. He was a highly touted
prospect in Texas before being traded to Chicago. He plays in a major media
market. Yet, he doesn't get the recognition he deserves. While working in one
of baseball's foremost hitter-friendly parks, he had terrific numbers over
the past two seasons (25-20, 3.55 ERA, 395 1/3 innings). He turns 25 shortly
after Opening Day.
9. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Brewers
After separate knee injuries limited him to only four starts during the 2008
regular season, Gallardo returned authoritatively last year. He's not a
household name from coast to coast -- fact: he plays for the Brewers -- but
that should change soon. He ranked second to Lincecum in strikeouts per nine
innings (9.889) among NL pitchers last year.
10. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
Feliz, 21, has the stuff to be a dominant reliever in the big leagues. We
know that because he fanned better than one hitter per inning during last
year's powerful bullpen call-up. But it's just as likely that he will develop
into a top-of-the-rotation starter. And while I'll admit my bias toward
pitchers who have already proven that they can start in the majors, Feliz's
explosive fastball earns a spot.
The Next Ten
Joakim Soria, RHP, Royals: If I made this list according to achievements,
Soria would have been in the top five. He has 89 saves over the past three
years.
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers: He had a lousy series against the Phillies, I
know. But don't forget what he did during the regular season.
Andrew Bailey, RHP, A's: From an unknown to AL Rookie of the Year. I didn't
vote for him, but he deserved the award: 68 appearances, many of them great.
Daniel Bard, RHP, Red Sox: He stepped into the Boston pressure cooker and
handled himself well. It helps when you strike out 11.5 batters per nine
innings.
David Price, LHP, Rays: He didn't have a great 2009, and he must improve his
command. Still, he has the chance to be a star.
Brian Matusz, LHP, Orioles: A cerebral starter who could become an ace, he
made quick work of the minor leagues. He has good stuff and an idea of how to
manage games -- "a good combo," one scout said.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: He made an impressive cameo at 19 last year.
He could be a big part of the San Francisco rotation in '10.
Jonathan Broxton, RHP, Dodgers: He's been an outstanding closer. How will he
bounce back from the NLCS disappointment?
Clay Buchholz, RHP, Red Sox: He threw the no-hitter in 2007 but has yet to
reach 200 innings -- for his big league career.
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Yankees: I'm still not sure if he's a starter or
reliever. Is anyone?
Honorable Mention: Chad Billingsley, RHP, Dodgers; Max Scherzer, RHP, Tigers;
Trevor Cahill, RHP, A's; Wade Davis, RHP, Rays; Ricky Romero, LHP, Jays; Phil
Hughes, RHP, Yankees; Tommy Hunter, RHP, Rangers; Derek Holland, LHP,
Rangers; Brad Bergesen, RHP, Orioles; Mat Latos, RHP, Padres.
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