[情報] Spurs vs Mavericks: Who knows?

看板Spurs (聖安東尼奧馬刺)作者stan90203 (鯰魚賢)時間15年前 (2010/04/16 23:30)推噓26(26推 0噓 17→)

留言43則, 27人參與討論串1/1

Spurs vs Mavericks: Who knows? by Wayne Vore (ATS) on Apr 16, 2010 8:51 AM CDT in Analysis http://tinyurl.com/y2geq7d I started this season with the highest of high hopes. Slowly, over the course of the first 61 games, those hopes were ground down into dried bits of poo. Fragments of compost ready to be spread across my lawn. Mediocrity and inconsistency abounded. Over the last 21 games, hope sprang out of the poo like a field of poppies. We went from looking uninspired and discombobulated to looking like the class of the league. 我原先對馬刺本季寄予厚望。漸漸經過了61場比賽，這些希望逐一成空。 Now, after 82 games, we enter the playoffs and I have no idea at all what to expect. We enter as a ridiculously low seven seed. But, we finished the year only 5 games behind the two seed. Only 3 games back if we didn't tank the last one. Really, I just have no clue at this point. No result would surprise me. Lose in 5 games to the Mavs. Ok. Push the Lakers to 7 in the conference finals. Fine. Absolutely blow up and make a run to the championship. Awesome. Surprised? No. 至今打完了82場例行賽，我們進了季後賽，但我不知道能期待些什麼。我們是第七種子，真是荒謬的低！不過我們也僅落後第二種子五場勝差罷了。如果沒有保留最後一場，我們能在前進一名。說真的，我百思不得其解，我們差小牛5場，湖人更是差到7場。 I'm doing two series previews in one post. One is a glass half empty. The other is a glass half full. 我將做兩種截然不同的預測。 Glass Half Empty Injuries Tony is still rusty and suffering from plantar fascitis. George is on a bad wheel and will be slowed on the defensive end where his defense on Terry will be critical. Tim's knee has slowed him to a crawl and he will get pushed around by Haywood and Dampier. 受傷： Parker還沒恢復身手，而且還是深受足底筋膜炎之苦。 Hill的腳就像壞掉的輪胎一樣，在防守端遇上Terry會很慘。 Duncan的膝蓋拖累了他的速度，而且他將會被Haywood和Dampier輪番伺候。 Dirk and Matchups We still don't have anybody who can make Dirk work for a shot. When it comes to money time, he will continue to eat our lunch with his mid-range game. We have a matchup problem when the play Dirk at the 4. It gets worse when they play him at the 5. When the Mavs go small, who will Tim cover? A lineup of Dirk, Butler, Marion, Terry, and Kidd will create a LOT of problems for the Spurs. Dirk的對位：我們還是沒人能守Dirk。當Dirk打4號位時我們有對位的問題。如果當Dirk打5號位，小牛場上擺小，Duncan要守誰？小牛場上將是Dirk、Butler、Marion 、Terry和Kidd，而且Kidd將會給馬刺製造大量的麻煩。 Lack of Role Player Production Manu's brilliance won't be able to carry us through a tough playoff series where we will rely heavily on our 3-point shooting which wasn't all that good in the first place. Who, from the role players, is going to step up and make the big shots? We have no proven clutch performers on our bench. Nobody who can play the big fourth quarter that you need from a random non-superstar in the playoffs. Call it the Horry role. Who's going to be the random player that drains two 3's and hits a couple free throws in a big fourth quarter run? It's not going to be one of the young guys. Temple, Blair, and Hairston? I don't think so. Bonner and Mason? Not if last year's playoffs are an indicator. McDyess and Bogans. Um, a possibility I guess. Rage? I don't think he has taken over a regular season fourth quarter yet. Much less a playoff game fourth quarter. 功能性球員的貢獻不足 Manu精湛的球技無法帶領我們通過強硬的季後賽，我們在季後賽將非常依賴三分球，但命中率澇賽不是一兩天的事了。哪位功能性球員能站出來，投出關鍵的一球呢？我們沒有一名板凳球員有過這樣的表現。季後賽關鍵的第四節沒辦法仰賴隨便一個非巨星級的球員。誰將當那個連投兩個三分，罰進好幾球的隨機球員呢？不會是那幾位年輕人，像是Temple、Blair和Hairston。那Bonner和Mason呢？我想不是，如果去年的季後賽是個指標的話。 McDyess和Bogans...恩...我猜有點可能。 Jefferson？我不認為他在季賽有接掌第四節的比賽。 Physical Playoff Basketball The Mavericks really pushed us around in the paint and on the glass last year. This year, they are bigger and stronger and longer. They are an older, more physical, more veteran team that also has a lot of athleticism. I don't think we will be able to match them physically when the games get rougher and fouls are harder to come by. 強力肉體對抗的季後賽小牛去年首我們禁區守得死死的，今年他們更高更大更強壯了。他們是更老一歲，更有對抗性，更有老將經驗的球隊。我不認為我們能在比賽更加強悍、犯規等級提升的比賽中跟他們對位。 Prediction: Mavs in 5 我的預測：馬刺1-4小牛 Glass Half Full Health Tony is back. He looked full speed and healthy against the T'Wolves. He's getting his rhthym and he proved last year that he can score at will against the Mavs. George is fine. A little set back and with the Sunday game one and Wednesday game two he will have plenty of time to get healthy. Same for Tim. He didn't play against the Mavs Wednesday and will be spry on Sunday. This team is in great shape health-wise. 健康： Parker回來了，對灰狼時他看起來很健康，還恢復了全部的速度。他找回了節奏，而且他去年證明了對上小牛他可以恣意得分。 Hill很好，不過星期天和星期三的比賽讓他需要許多時間回復健康的身體。 Duncan也是一樣的，星期對小牛他沒上場，保留戰力周日再戰。馬刺看起來是朝著健康的雛形前進的。 Manu and Matchups They don't have anybody capable of shutting down Manu. I don't even think they have somebody that can slow him down. His brilliance in the pick-and-roll will draw the Mavs bigs away from the basket and leave Dirk as the free safety. Good luck with that Dirk. Dampier will have limited success guarding Tim, as has always been the case, but Tim almost always dominates him and gets him into foul trouble. Haywood? I don't think so. He's never been good and he's not going to be good against playoff Timmy. AND, the Mavs still don't have anybody to guard Tony. Manu的貢獻小牛沒人能拿Manu的輒。我甚至想不到他們有誰能讓Manu的腳步慢下來。他傑出的pick-and-roll能力會把小牛球員拉離籃下，讓Dirk變成一個游衛的角色(*註)。 Dampier沒什麼機會能成功守住Duncan，還會讓自己陷入犯規麻煩。至於Haywood呢？他從來都不夠好，而且他也無法成功防守季後賽的Duncan。而且還有一點，小牛還是沒人守得住Parker。 Tony IS the Role Player Tony will be the anchor of the second unit coming off the bench. He will provide the scoring punch when Manu is resting and never give the Mavs any chance to relax or put us in a long scoring drought. With Tony penetrating, the role players will only have to make their open shots. Additionally, I think Rage will actually step his game up for the playoffs from his regular season performance. I think he and Bogans will actually have a really good series. They are both rough veterans who will perform better in the more physical playoffs. Parker的功能很重要 Parker是板凳第二個後盾來源，他能在Manu休息時給予得分力量，讓小牛沒有放鬆的機會或是讓我們陷入長時間的得分乾旱。大家要利用Parker的切入找空檔投籃。除此之外，我想Jefferson在季後賽會從他季賽的表現中爆發出來。他和Bogans在這系列賽將會表現得很好。他們都是粗野的老手，而且在肉體碰撞更強的季後賽中能表現得更好。 Head Case Playoff Basketball The Mavs have head cases. Haywood and Terry, in particular, have proven to have issues. Marion has never been a playoff performer. I'm not sure Butler has ever been in a tight series. Stevenson? Hahahahaha!!! 最重要的，這是季後賽特別是Haywood和Terry，已經證明是有些爭議的。 Marion從未在季後賽有特別爆發。我不敢說Butler有經歷過如次高強度的系列賽。至於Stevenson？科科 Prediction: Spurs in 4 我的預測：馬刺4-0小牛 -- *註：(google來的，http://som.twbbs.org/klee/notebook/note101.htm) Safety 在美式足球裏除了「安全」之外還有二個特別的解釋。一個指的是 strong safety (強衛) 或 free safety(游衛)，這是兩個防守位置的名稱，常合稱 safety。另外 safety 還可以指一種特殊的得分狀況，也就是指進攻的球員持球，但卻在自己的達陣區觸地，這時不但對方白白得到兩分，同時還把進攻權讓給對方，這種情況也稱之為 safety。所以要是老美說，"We're looking for a safety." 這句話可能有兩種意思，一是「我們正在找一個能打 safety 位置的球員」，另一個可能則是，「我們正尋求一個 safety 的得分機會。」有什麼樣的情況會造成 safety 呢？怎麼會自己持球在己方的達陣區觸地呢？比如說吧，現在甲隊進攻至乙隊門前三碼處，結果 fumble，進攻權就變成乙隊的，所以這時乙隊由自己的三碼處開始進攻，但是當乙隊的球員拿到球後，卻被甲隊一個 tackle 給撞進自己的達陣區，這就是一個發生 safety 的可能情況，此時甲隊平白得到兩分，而且重新由乙方開球，甲方進攻 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.166.74.136 ※ 編輯: stan90203 來自: 118.166.74.136 (04/16 23:39)

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※ 編輯: stan90203 來自: 118.166.74.136 (04/16 23:43)

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我想重點在 1. 傷勢：尤其是Hill，再來就Parker。傷好了就好，傷沒好久不太妙 2. 三分球：命中率又澇賽的話(像最後一場那樣)，Blair拿30-30都救不了我們 3. DIFF：小牛是2.7...雖然戰績好，但感覺最不穩至於Dirk，我想知道地球上有什麼人能守他的後仰跳投...就祈禱他剛好都沒進吧！ ※ 編輯: stan90203 來自: 118.166.71.141 (04/17 09:12)

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