[灌水] It’s time for a starting change

看板Thunder (奧克拉荷馬市雷霆)作者tanaka0826 (田中鬪莉王)時間12年前 (2014/01/17 02:37)推噓5(5推 0噓 1→)

留言6則, 5人參與討論串1/1

Until Russ returns, it’s time for a starting change http://0rz.tw/nnOPt A 10-game sample isn’t enough to probably draw definitive conclusions from, but here’s what we know about the way the Thunder have played sans Russell Westbrook. 當然十場不能算大樣本，不過我們知道少了Russ之後， They’re not as good. 沒那麼好啦。 Stunning revelation, I know. 挖塞，醍醐灌頂捏，挖災 There are a lot of complaints and criticisms bounding around — some very valid — about what the Thunder need to do and how Scott Brooks could alleviate a little of this stress. A lot of it can be solved simply with “ play basketball better you dummies,” but that’s probably oversimplifying matters. I don’t think an offensive system is necessarily the answer, nor some magical “adjustment,” a word fans love to just say without having any idea what adjustment it is they want. 很多然開始抱怨，然後就有「傻子，打好一點啊」等等有用的建議，或是甚麼咩居可「調整」一下救活過來了，雖然說不出要怎麼調。 So here’s one: Switch the starting five. 來一個：改變先發五人 I mentioned the idea it may be time to consider a change after last night’s game, but today on radio, I went all-in with it. So if I’m willing to say the words, I probably should be willing to type them out as well: The Thunder need to change their starting five, at least until Westbrook returns. 上一場輸球的時候我稍稍提到，不過我打算深入一點─換先發陣容，至少在Russ回來之前。 Yeah, yeah, I know. Not happening. Scott Brooks loves the consistency in rolling out his starting five and I think he thinks if he were to adjust it that it would be conceding some kind of weakness. But here’s the thing: He’ s done it before. Twice, actually. Once was in Game 6 against the Rockets last postseason where he came out of halftime with Perk on the bench and a smallball five. The other time was two seasons ago when Thabo Sefolosha was hurt, so he rolled James Harden in to start at shooting guard. After two games of Harden clearly struggling, Brooks made a clever decision to start Daequan Cook and let Harden return to his comfy bench role. 我知道啥都沒發生，Scott Brooks喜歡用一樣的五人，當他調整時就代表弱點暴露出來了。Brooks調過兩次，一次是上季季後賽對火箭的Game 6，下半場Perk蹲板凳、小球陣容；再上一次則是Thabo受傷，Harden先發，最後因為Harden打太爛，Brooks很明智的讓 Daequan Cook先發、Harden回到老位置。 And again, this isn’t the starting five that’s been together since 2011. I’ m not advocating for change to that one. But the Thunder are in a predicament, one they don’t want to be in, and things aren’t really working right now. 當然那時候的先發五人不一樣，我也沒支持雷霆變回那樣的意思。不過雷霆現在陷入困境了。 Here’s what the numbers say: The Thunder’s starting five right now has played 165 minutes together over the last nine games (remember, Ibaka sat against the Jazz), 132 more than the second most-used lineup. That group is a net 2.0 per 100 possessions, averaging 99.0 points and allowing 97.0. Pretty good defense, miserable offense. 過去九場比賽先發五人一起上場的時間共165分鐘(而且Ibaka還缺席對爵士的比賽)；比第二常用的陣容多了...132分鐘。每百波球權 + 2.0，得分99.0、失分97.0，防守不錯，攻擊糟糕。 With Westbrook, the starting five has played 19 games together and 280 minutes, putting up an offensive rating of 97.5 and a defensive of 103.2 for a net of -5.7. So this group is actually an improvement! Sigh. But we know the method to the madness with a healthy Westbrook. The Thunder’s second unit is a weapon and with two top five offensive players on the floor together, it can cover up the overall deficiencies of the group. Other than for five games in the NBA Finals, that lineup has acquitted itself pretty well. 有Russ的19場：280分鐘、得分97.5、失分103.2，淨勝分 -5.7....所以是現在比較好！當然，我們都知道不是這樣的。當Russ健康的時候雷霆的板凳是武器，而且聯盟Top 5 的雙箭頭可以彌補不足之處。除了總冠軍的五戰之外都清楚的說明了這點。 But right now, the issues are obvious. Reggie Jackson is uncomfortable, and Kevin Durant looks like a man carrying around four grand pianos on his back for 10 minute stretches at the beginning of the first and third quarters. It’ s not working. Since Dec. 25 when Westbrook went out, the Thunder are +5.2 points in the first quarter per 48 minutes and -8.0 in the third. In the second they’re +8.8 and the fourth they’re +12.0. The first and third quarters is when the starters play together. See a trend here? 現在Reggie打得很不蘇胡、KD在每場上下半場開始時的十分鐘都要自己扛四個鋼琴。Russ 缺陣後第一節的淨勝分(擴大成每48分鐘)是+5.2；第三節-8.0；第二節+8.8、第四節+12.0 。第一節和第三節上場的是誰？先發。 The way the Thunder are currently built without Westbrook, they’re a team much better suited to be playing from ahead rather than trying to come from behind. When they get behind, it kicks in Durant’s natural instinct to try and dig them out personally, rather than relying on the team’s principles. And when that happens, he’s exerting too much energy and doing too much. 雷霆少了Russ之後就變成逃離對手追殺比拚逆轉還好的球隊。球隊一落後KD就不由自主地要自己一個人拯救球隊，然後很快就會氣力放盡了。 So what’s the fix? Five solutions come to mind, a couple of which I don’t like: 我想到五個解決方式，其中兩個不大喜歡。 1) Start Derek Fisher over Reggie Jackson. I don’t like this one. Yes, it falls in line with what Brooks has done in the past starting Cook over Harden and Andre Roberson in place of Thabo Sefolosha, but in this circumstance, it would mean you’d remove a strong offensive player and reduce the starting five to Durant and Ibaka as the only legit scorers. And really, Durant would be the only player that could create his own or a shot for a teammate. Bad idea. (1) Derek Fisher先發、Reggie回板凳。不喜歡。概念就像Cook over Harden和Andre Roberson取代Thabo。不過現在的狀況是你拔掉了一個強力的進攻球員，變成整個先發陣容只有Ibaka和KD會得分，然後KD 也將變成唯一一個掌控進攻的人(無論自己打或給隊友打)。 Bad idea. 2) Start Steven Adams. I like it, but don’t love it. Adams showed how good he can be against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, changing the game with his defense and rebounding. The fact he got only 21 minutes is upsetting, because it should’ve been 31. The question is, what does start Adams actually solve for the starting five? It weakens the bench and while he’s a better offensive player than Perk, I don’t think it’s good plan. (2) Steven Adams 先發覺得不錯但不算非常喜歡。Adams在打灰熊那場表現不錯，防守和籃板都是改變比賽的關鍵。只打21分鐘很可惜，應該打31分鐘。不過擺Adams上去真的有解決現在先發五人的問題嗎？雖然他的進攻能力比Perk好，不過這會讓板凳弱化。我不認為是個好主意。 3) Start Nick Collison and Jeremy Lamb. Mix it all up. The lineup of Jackson, Lamb, Durant, Ibaka and Collison has appeared in 12 games together this season, playing 29 minutes. In that time it’s got an offensive rating of 131.0 with a defensive of 103.5. That’s a net of 27.5, making it one of the Thunder’s best lineups. Yes, it leaves the Thunder with a bench unit consisting of Perkins, Sefolosha, Adams and Fisher, which stinks horribly, but by staggering rotations there’s a way to make sure that Lamb, Durant, Collison, Jackson and Ibaka are working into time with the second unit. In fact, go with this: Start that group and play them for six minutes. Sub out Collison for Perkins, sub out Jackson for Fisher. Play that group a few minutes, then sub Jackson back on with Sefolosha (for Durant) and Collison, and essentially let him run his old second unit again to start the second. (3) Nick Collison 和 Jeremy Lamb 先發，陣容打散本季Reggie, Lamb, Durant, Ibaka & Collison的組合出現在12場比賽之中，總共 29分鐘。這段時間offensive rating 131.0，防守103.5─+27.5。這是雷霆手上最棒的陣容之一。的確，這樣板凳會變得很鳥，Perk, Thabo, Adams, Fisher...所以必須設計出這五人能和第二陣容搭一點時間的方法，像是先發五人打六分鐘，接著 Perk取代Collison、Fisher取代Reggie；打了幾分鐘後Reggie上、Thabo上(KD休息) 、Collison回來。基本上第二節就是讓Reggie和平常的第二陣容一起打。 4) Go small. Start Durant at power forward, Ibaka at center. This is bold, and might backfire. If you’re wanting to keep the bench unit as strong as possible, insert Fisher in and play three guards. There are only a few teams in the league this won’t work against and it means that either Adams or Perk may not see the floor any depending on matchups. But Brooks has shown one of his favorite closing lineups is playing small with Ibaka at the 5 and Durant at the 4. If you think it’s maybe your best lineup, then why not play it the most? (4) 小球。 KD打PF、Ibaka中鋒。這很大膽，甚至可能會自食惡果。如果想要保持板凳戰力，那就是拉Fisher進來打三後衛陣容。只有對上少數球隊沒用，而Adams和Perk很有可能會因為matchup而上不了場。不過Brooks其實還蠻喜歡讓Ibaka打五號、KD四號─如果你喜歡，幹嘛不用？ 5) How about this: Don’t play the starters so freaking long together. The easiest compromise. Start the five you like, whatever. But maybe don’t leave them in the game until the three minute mark of each quarter. For example, against Memphis last night: The Grizzlies are making a push early in the third. Why not cut your losses right there and sub three minutes in and get Adams back in the game early? Instead of committing to that five for 17 minutes a night, maybe cut it to 12. That’s all. (5) 不要再讓先發球員打那麼久啦最簡單的一個，想擺那些先發都隨便，不過不要等到到了每節只剩三分鐘的時候才讓他們下場。對灰熊的那場，第三節被爆擊的時候應該止血，讓Adams早點上場。不要讓先發五人打十七分鐘，打十二分鐘就好。 (下略) Look, I’m anti-panic right now. Because what’s there to really worry about, other than dropping games and missing out on a top one or two seed? Assuming Westbrook’s health is intact, when he returns, the Thunder will straighten out. Yes, it’s a concern that they haven’t learned from any of their mistakes and yes, why aren’t they better than they were in May after having all this time to figure things out? But face the music here, people: The Thunder are missing a top five player in the world. By default, that’s going to make them worse. Quit comparing OKC’ s situation to the Spurs sitting starters. Different team, different structure, different players. A more comparable situation is what’s happening in Miami. The Heat with Dwyane Wade this season: 23-5. The Heat without Dwyane Wade: 4-5. (The Thunder with Russell Westbrook: 21-4. Without: 7-6.) Is Erik Spoelstra’s system the problem? Is his gameplan busted? Is the roster flawed? Or are they just missing a really terrific player? In the meantime before Westbrook returns and fixes all these problems, it’s up to the Thunder to survive and maintain where they’re at. I’m not entirely sure homecourt advantage is entirely vital in winning the West, but I ’m sure it wouldn’t hurt. And there’s this: What if Westbrook has knee problems again in the postseason? What if the Thunder have to play a game, or two, or three without him? Are they going to be remotely ready for that? So why not at least use this time to try a few new things, to see what might work and what might not? The Thunder have a cultural philosophy of borderline arrogance that’s both good and bad. Basically, they think as long as they do what they do and do it well, it doesn’t matter. They can win with their starting five, with whoever, as long as they just do their damn jobs. That kind of confidence is great when you have Russell Westbrook because in most situations, it’s true. Play well and no one will beat you, lineups be damned. But there’s nothing wrong with accepting that maybe a change is in order to jumpstart a little of that. Russell Westbrook isn’t on the floor right now and the Thunder need to start acting like it. Scott Brooks has repeatedly called the issues the team is facing “correctable.” He was talking about other things, obviously, but the starting five is one of those things. So correct it. -- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD." -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.114.207.209