[外電] Situational Statistics: This Year’s Shooting Guard Crop
Situational Statistics: This Year’s Shooting Guard Crop
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Evan Turner may have a stranglehold on the top shooting guard spot, but this
group is full or diverse prospect and will have a huge impact in how the
draft shakes out from picks 20-45. We investigate the situational strength
and weaknesses of 19 of the top shooting guards declared for the 2010 draft.
Thanks to our friends over at Synergy Sports Technology, we have access to
the most thorough situational statistics available today. Synergy keeps track
of all the possession that takes place in nearly every college basketball
game, accumulating an incredible wealth of extremely informative data.
Many of these statistics offer excellent insight into the players we
evaluate, so we’ve taken the time to compile and sort through them in an
effort to distinguish which players are, for instance, the most productive
back to the basket threats, the most effective finishers around the basket,
the most likely to draw fouls on a given possession, and the most efficient
jump shooters. With 19 of the top shooting guards tabulated on our
spreadsheet, we’ve created a short list of the most interesting things we’
ve learned about this year’s crop of prospects.
Before you look at our findings, it is important to realize that there are
some limitations to our analysis. For example, prospects on lower level teams
will have some possessions missing each year because not all of their games
were logged.
The exact breakdown of specific possession types can be highly subjective and
thus somewhat inconsistent at times as well, which means that this data
always needs to be taken with a grain of salt. We’ve tried to steer away
from utilizing data that wouldn’t be considered statistically significant,
but considering how short the college season is, that’s not always easy.
Our data obviously does not account for neither the strength of a player’s
teammates, or his level of competition, and features just one international
player, Pietro Aradori of Angelico Biella.
What We Learned Last Season
2009 Shooting Guard article
‧ Some of the players we evaluated have continued to get touches in similar
situations, but haven’t translated certain aspects of their game.
James Harden continued to run the pick and roll for the Thunder this season,
much like he did at Arizona State, and translated some of his isolation
touches into spot up opportunities, but finished at the rim at a severely
reduced rate.
‧ Certain prospects remain limited because of their inability to post
efficient numbers in certain situations.
Both Gerald Henderson and Terrence Williams showed questionable jump shooting
ability on the college level, and that has held both players back in the NBA.
Though both players are very solid athletes, getting to the rim becomes a
whole lot easier when defenders are forced to guard out to the three point
arc.
‧ Some players have been forced to alter their games entirely or have
flourished in radically different roles than they played in college.
Jeff Teague got 14% of his offense in pick and roll situations during his
last season at Wake, a far-cry from the near 40% he posted this season.
Jermaine Taylor has undergone a similar transformation from the dominant
spot-up role he played at UCF. Antonio Anderson was one of the top scorers in
the NBADL this season despite being merely an inefficient complementary
player on the offensive end at Memphis.
Findings
‧ Evan Turner’s situational statistics support him as the second best
prospect in this draft.
The third highest usage player in our sample at 21.4 possessions per-game
(behind Dominique Jones and Aubrey Coleman), Turner’s limitations as a
shooter are apparent on first glance. Despite scoring an average .929 points
per-possession, he ranks first in overall field goal percentage at 51.2%.
Clearly, Turner’s limitations from the perimeter hurt his productivity, but
he was savvy enough to stick to what he was good at on the college level,
excelling in a number of areas.
Turner ranks as the most efficient transition player in our rankings at 1.27
points per-possession, a testament to his ability to use his size and ball
handling to make a major impact in the open floor, even though he only draws
fouls on a slightly below average 9.6% of his fast break shots and a
questionable 4.8% of his half court shots. His field goal percentage of 47.2%
is the second best mark in non-transition sets, but he could definitely stand
to get to the line at a higher rate to help his efficiency on the next level.
A limited spot up player because of a lack of touches (2 Pos/G) working off
the ball as Ohio State’s primary ball-handler, Turner’s 0.7 PPP in
isolation situations is below average as well. He compensates with impressive
numbers on the pick and roll. With over 25.8% of his offense running coming
from the two-man game, Turner scores a very impressive 1.029 PPP coming off
of ball-screens. Clearly Turner is a player who will need the ball in his
hands in the NBA to be successful.
Turner’s excellent shooting efficiency in half court settings is the result
of his ability to get to the rim. His 5 shots at the rim per-game is good for
third amongst his peers, and his 55.8% shooting is well above average. The
majority of his 7.2 jump shots per-game come off of pull up shots, of which
he hits a second ranking 42.3%. This part of his game is already tailor made
to the NBA—which will help his transition significantly.
Though Turner had little trouble putting the ball in the basket last season,
his lack of catch and shoot attempts (1.7 per-game) remains a concern. Though
he won’t force many looks, Turner’s floor game won’t fully open up on the
NBA level until he becomes a more capable shooter from range working off the
ball. The degree to which he improves his shot will dictate how often he has
to dominate the ball to put points on the board.
Regardless, any team looking for a dynamic shot-creator to give their
half-court offense a huge shot in the arm would benefit greatly from Turner’
s presence. This study does not even take into account his passing,
rebounding or defensive skills, three of his best attributes, and which make
him arguably the most versatile prospect in this draft.
‧ Elliot Williams does a number of things exceptionally well, and has the
potential to be an efficient scorer if he improves some of his scoring tools.
Ranking right around average in terms of usage at 17.4 possessions per-game
and slightly above average at 0.961 PPP overall, Williams’ best asset in
comparison to his peers is his ability to use his quickness to get to the
line. He was fouled on an impressive 14.2% of his overall shots, leading our
sample of prospects by more than 3%.
Despite ranking right around average in terms of half court field goal
percentage (42.2%), Williams scores on a higher percentage (45.4%) of his
non-fast break possessions than any other player. Clearly, his first step
plays a major role in his ability to create contact at the rim. His role for
Memphis certainly helped as well.
Although he spent nearly twice as many of his possessions playing off the
ball in spot up situations than Evan Turner (17.2% vs. 9.5%), Williams got
some 43% of his offense operating one-on-one or working off a pick. A capable
jump shooter when left open (42.9%), but limited when defended (27.3%), the
Duke transfer has the resume of a guard capable of sliding over to handle the
ball next to a shooting point guard or remaining off the ball and slashing to
the rim.
Williams only shot 1.9 pull up jumpers per-game last season, preferring to
drive all the way to the rim where he shot an average 51.3%. Given his lack
of physical strength, Williams will need to continue to hone his shooting
ability in the mid-range area to become a more complete offensive threat at
the shooting guard position.
‧One of the biggest risers of this year’s draft season, Dominique Jones’
explosive scoring ability ranks him highly in certain metrics, though he
doesn’t excel in any one given situation.
The most impressive aspect of Jones’ resume is his 46.5% scoring ratio,
indicating that he scores at least a point on nearly half of his extremely
high 21.6 possessions per-game. The level of efficiency ranks first in this
group, and his .976 PPP and 11% shots fouled are well above average as well.
Jones is both a high usage and high efficiency scorer, which is a rare
combination to find.
With nearly 20% of his touches coming in transition, Jones gets to the line
better than any of his peers on the break, drawing a trip to the line on
21.6% of those possessions. The USF product doesn’t excel in any one
particular offensive situation, though he is a solid isolation player. Much
of his success comes from his ability to finish at the rim. His 1.22 points
per-possession as a finisher place him third amongst this group. That quality
should lend itself well to the NBA.
The reason Jones doesn’t excel in any one particular area is because he isn’
t a terribly efficient jump shooter. An average shooter when left open off
the catch (39%), and a below average pull up shooter (32.4%), Jones’s
dynamic ability to get to the rim, create contact, and finish make him an
intriguing guard with potential at both positions, but to become a more
serviceably player in a smaller role, he’ll need to hone his long-range
jumper. If he does, watch out.
‧Avery Bradley is considered one of the best defenders in this group, and
his situational strengths characterize him as a potential high-level
role-player.
One of the lower usage players in this group at just 12.6 possessions
per-game, Bradley scored on a slightly below average 40.8% of his touches.
With 24% of his possessions coming in transition, the freshman shot 53.3% on
the fast break, and scored on a below average 38.2% of his half court
possessions.
While he’s certainly not the most dynamic offensive threat at this point,
Bradley was very solid in spot up situations. With a sizeable 30.5% of his
touches coming from such opportunities, he shot a second ranked adjusted
field goal percentage of 60.9%. The least prolific player running the pick
and roll (.57 PPP) and a mediocre isolation player, Bradley was heavily
reliant on his jump shot to score points.
Nearly 75.7% of his half court shots were jumpers, and he led all players
with a 43.1% shooting percentage on such attempts. Despite being a prolific
shooter, Bradley is the worst finisher in this group, averaging 0.754 points
per-shot. One of the top unguarded and guarded catch and shoot players in
this group (1.347 PPP and 1.149 PPP), he proved capable from the perimeter
during his time at Texas, but struggled at the rim. His frail frame certainly
won’t help in that area on the next level either, but his ability to defend
and ability to hit shots from the perimeter tailor him to a smaller role than
he played last season.
Everything about Bradley’s profile from the numbers we have at our disposal
indicates that he’s best suited playing off the ball at the moment.
Considering he was only a freshman, he could obviously still develop his
playmaking and shot-creating ability in the future.
‧Oklahoma’s struggles this season show in certain parts of Willie Warren’s
situational statistics.
A player once projected to be selected near the top of the lottery, Willie
Warren’s fall from grace shows in his numbers. He turned the ball over on
22.7% of his overall possessions, the highest amongst twos projected to be
selected in the draft. Warren sits right at the average in overall scoring
percentage at 42.5%, but is second lowest prospect in terms of transition
scoring percentage at 45.1%, nearly 20% less than Evan Turner.
On the positive side, Warren shot 47.8% from the field in half court
situations, the highest mark amongst all prospects. Much of his success
against a set defense comes from his ability to score in isolation
situations. His explosiveness played a key role in his 52.5% shooting in
one-on-one scenarios –the highest percentage on our rankings. He also shot
the highest adjusted field goal percentage in pick and roll situations at
60%. These are qualities that are in high demand in today’s NBA, and could
make him an intriguing change of pace option in some team’s second unit,
granted he’s able to hone the rest of his game.
Warren’s outstanding numbers in those sets are largely result of his ability
to get to the rim and finish athletically. Warren ranks as the top finisher
in our group at 1.31 PPP in a slightly below average 3 shots per-game at the
rim. Similarly, he is the second best pull up jump shooter at 1.04 PPP in a
meager 1.6 possessions in game. He ranks below average in both catch and
shoot metrics, and it seems clear that Warren wasn’t always playing to his
strengths last season.
Looking at those numbers alone, Warren seems like a high caliber offensive
weapon who could win games for his team when his shot was falling, but there’
s much more to the story. Despite his outstanding shooting in pick and roll
situations and prolific one-on-one ability, he turned the ball over on nearly
one-third of his possessions running the two-man game and on a quarter of his
isolation touches. He was also the worst spot up player in terms of PPP
(0.72). Warren clearly has some outstanding natural offensive tools, but his
decision-making leaves a lot to be desired, that became much more apparent
this season in the absence of Blake Griffin than it was last year.
‧Jordan Crawford is an interesting case to analyze, as he is efficient in
virtually every situation, and shouldered a heavy load for Xavier, but his
inability to get to the foul line prevents him from standing out as much as
he probably could. The second most efficient player in our rankings overall
(1.014 PPP), Crawford gets fouled on his 5.1% of his shots (3rd last). A
highly ranked catch and shoot player with or without a hand in his face,
Crawford’s inability to draw fouls renders him as a below average finisher
at .993 PPP.
‧Jon Scheyer ranks as the most efficient overall scorer here at 1.054 PPP.
As one could guess, his tremendous jump shooting ability when left open
afforded him success in spot up situations (1.16 PPP), but he surprisingly
ranks well above average in isolation (.938 PPP 3rd) and is the most
effective pick and roll player on our list (1.16 PPP). Despite his limited
quickness, Scheyer is one of the savviest prospects around. If he’s able to
show that he can defend his position on a consistent basis, he should be able
to carve out a niche for himself in the NBA.
‧Terrico White turned the ball over on an extremely low 9% of his possessions
—hinting at his frustrating lack of aggressiveness, and didn’t stand out in
too many other areas. His biggest weakness was his ability to hit shots with
a hand in his face off a catch (0.65 PPP on 2.5/G), which manifested itself
when he was playing shooting guard and working off of screens. For a player
with such excellent physical tools, you would have liked to see him get to
the rim or draw more fouls than he was able to at Ole Miss.
‧ Sylven Landesberg was fairly average due to his lack of great shooting
ability, but he presents some mismatch problems thanks to his size and
length, which Virginia exploited down low to the tune of 2.2 post up
possessions per-game, twice as much as any other prospect, with Evan Turner
coming in second.
‧ Aubrey Coleman is the highest usage player on our list (27.1 Pos/G) and
his 10.4 possessions per-game in isolation situations tell us a lot about how
thorough Houston’s reliance on him really was. His 0.934 PPP in one-on-one
situations is really impressive when you consider that opponents often knew
what was coming. Unfortunately, Coleman’s lack of size and 0.731 PPP on 11.4
jump shots per-game will force him to make some major adjustments on the next
level.
‧ Andy Rautins’ unguarded catch and shoot PPP of 1.426 is very solid, with
Cal’s Patrick Christopher finishing in second at 1.391 PPP, but Rautins is
the second most turnover prone player behind Jeremy Lin despite playing a
role that consisted almost entirely of deep jumpers.
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