[外電] Timberwolves Offseason: A Simple Breakdown

看板Timberwolves (明尼蘇達灰狼)作者jinshenn (Don't panic)時間1月前 (2025/06/02 00:04)推噓82(82推 0噓 181→)

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https://tinyurl.com/2vkfukwc Before examining what may happen with the Timberwolves offseason, let’s set a few assumed premises for how the Wolves will operate. 在探討灰狼隊休賽季可能發生的事情之前，讓我們先設定幾個將如何運作的前提。 First, when the Wolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns, and the contract that pays him $220 million through the 2028 season, it was a signal that they weren’t going to be a team over the dreaded NBA second apron for too long. They were in the second apron this season as lucrative extensions for Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels entered their first years. 首先，當灰狼隊交易走 Karl-Anthony Towns，以及那份支付到2028年總計 2.2億美元的合約時，這是一個訊號，表明他們不打算長時間成為一支超出 NBA可怕的「第二層豪華稅線」（second apron）的球隊。本賽季 Anthony Edwards 和 Jaden McDaniels 豐厚的延長合約生效，因而突破第二層豪華稅線。 The Wolves face high tax rates for being in this area of the luxury tax, but being a second-apron team carries with it punitive roster-building restrictions that teams have come to detest: freezing of draft picks in trades; having future picks fall to the end of the first round; the inability to combine salaries to make trades; the inability to use the midlevel exception in free agency. 灰狼隊在這個區間內除了面臨高額稅率，還會帶來球隊都厭惡的懲罰性陣容建構限制：交易中凍結選秀權、未來選秀權順位會掉到首輪末端、無法合併薪資進行交易、無法在自由球員市場中使用中產特例。 All that would be on the table for the Wolves in future years should they remain a second-apron team, and that was a big motivating factor behind trading Towns for Julius Randle, who has a player option next season, and Donte DiVincenzo, who is signed for two more years for a combined $23.5 million. 如果灰狼隊未來幾年仍停留在此區間內，所有限制都將適用於他們，這也是他們用 Towns 換來 Julius Randle（下賽季擁有球員選擇權）和 Donte DiVincenzo（還有兩年合約，總計2350萬美元）的重要動機。 The next signal the Wolves sent that they wanted to duck under the second apron was Rudy Gobert’s extension, which he agreed to opening night of the season. That moved saved the team $12 million in space for next season, with the threshold for the second apron set at nearly $207.8 million. At the time, Gobert referenced working with the Wolves and taking less money than he might have earned in an attempt to maintain a competitive roster. 另一個希望避開第二層豪華稅線的訊號來自於續約Rudy Gobert，他在開幕夜就同意簽約。第二層豪華稅門檻接近2.078億美元，這筆簽約為球隊下賽季團隊薪資下修1200萬美元。Gobert 當時提到與灰狼隊合作，為了維持競爭力，他願意領取較少的薪資。 As for paying the tax, incoming controlling owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez, who aren’t doing on-the-record interviews at least until the NBA has officially finalized the sale of the team to them from Glen Taylor, have previously said they have money to spend to invest in the team. 至於支付豪華稅，即將上任的控股老闆 Marc Lore 和 Alex Rodriguez（至少在官方正式敲定 Glen Taylor 將球隊出售給他們之前，他們不會接受公開採訪）曾表示，他們有錢投資球隊。 So, operating on the premises that the Wolves will be a first-apron team and that Lore and Rodriguez are willing to pay the necessary luxury tax for them to be so, here’s a look at what might happen this offseason for the Wolves. 因此，基於灰狼隊將會是一支「第一層豪華稅線」球隊，並且 Lore 和 A-Rod 願意支付必要的豪華稅的前提下，展望灰狼隊今年夏天可能發生的情況。 The Randle and Reid options Randle 和 Reid 的抉擇 Randle, 30, and Naz Reid, 25, are in different spots relative to their ages and what they are owed on their options (Randle’s is $31 million, Reid’s is $15 million). 30歲的 Randle 和25歲的 Naz Reid，在年齡和選擇權金額（Randle 為3100 萬美元，Reid 為1500萬美元）都處於不同情況。 I’m a little skeptical about his claim for Reid opting in, but I can see the case for Randle. He’s 30, and while his Western Conference finals wasn’t what he or fans envisioned, he played great the first two rounds and found his footing in Minnesota late in the regular season. 關於 Reid 會執行選擇權的說法持保留態度，但能理解 Randle 的情況。他 30歲了，雖然在西區冠軍賽表現並非他或球迷們所期望的，但他前兩輪表現出色，並在例行賽後段站穩腳步。 He has said many times over that the lifestyle fits him and his family well, and he loves playing for coach Chris Finch. But he might not make $31 million on the open market, and by opting in he could also still sign an extension with the Wolves beyond that. If he’s willing to do what Gobert did and give up some money, he could opt out of that option and negotiate a long-term deal at a lower number than $31 million. 他曾多次表示，這裡的生活方式很適合他及家人，而且喜歡為教練 Chris Finch 效力。他可能無法在公開市場爭取到3100萬美元，而選擇執行選擇權後，他後續仍可與灰狼隊談妥一份延長合約。如果願意像 Gobert 那樣少領一些薪資，他可以放棄該選擇權，並以談妥一份起薪低於3100萬美元的長期合約。 But opting in and then extending could be a middle ground for both sides to get what they want in terms of money and financial flexibility for the future in what likely will be the last big chance for Randle to have a big payday in his early 30s. 執行選擇權後再續約，可能是雙方在金錢和未來財務靈活性的一個折衷方案，這很可能是 Randle 在30歲出頭時爭取大約的最後機會。 As for Reid, he indicated at the team’s exit interviews that he was likely to decline his option and shoot for a long-term deal. 至於 Reid，在球季終了的採訪表示，他很可能放棄球員選擇權，並尋求一份長期合約。 “I think the work has been put in,” Reid said. “Obviously, I’ ve got a long way to go with being only 25, but for sure. I think that’s what the future looks like for me.” 「我覺得努力已經付出。」Reid 說道。「顯然，我才25歲，還有很長的路要走。但肯定的是，我認為那會是我的未來。」 Reid could also opt in and negotiate a long-term deal on top of it, or opt out and get a long-term deal with the Wolves or elsewhere. The Wolves value Reid highly, and one of the reasons for making the Towns deal was because it made it more likely they could have Reid playing alongside Edwards and his good friend McDaniels for years to come. Reid, last season’s Sixth Man of the Year, might want to become a starter, and he views himself as such. Other teams might be in a better position to offer him that should Randle and Gobert both return, but Reid also indicated he might be open again to coming off the bench, especially for another chance to win. Reid 也可以選擇執行選擇權，並在此基礎上談妥一份長期合約，或者選擇放棄，與灰狼隊或他隊簽下一份長期合約。灰狼隊非常看重 Reid，而交易 Towns 的原因之一，也是為了讓 Reid 在未來幾年更有機會與 Edwards 和 McDaniels 並肩作戰。Reid 可能希望成為先發球員，他本人也這樣認為。如果 Randle 和 Gobert 都回歸，其他球隊相對更有能力提供先發機會，但 Reid 也表示願意再次接受從板凳出發，特別是為了另一個爭冠機會。 “… If you want to be in a winning position, sometimes you might have to sacrifice,“ he said. ”So I definitely view myself as a starter, but things happen, things change. You never know what’s ahead of you until you talk about it and until you go through it.” 「...如果你想處在贏球環境，有時候可能需要犧牲。我當然認為自己是一名先發球員，但計劃趕不上變化，在你真正談論並經歷之前，你永遠無法預知事情怎麼發展。」 Again, the lack of teams with money to spend will affect his market if he opts out. Just how much remains to be seen, but Reid is itching for a big payday, whether from the Wolves or elsewhere. If the Wolves want to re-sign him, they have about $27.8 million under the second apron to do so (this is where the Gobert contract is helpful), assuming Randle opts in to his deal and Reid opts out of his. This is also before factoring in that the Wolves have the 17th pick in the draft (slated to make around $4.2 million) and No. 31 (second-round picks aren’t subject to a salary slot, but for reference the No. 30 pick is slated to make $2.74 million). 同樣地，如果他選擇跳脫合約，少有球隊保有薪資空間將影響他的行情，影響程度還有待觀察，但 Reid 渴望獲得一份大約，無論是來自灰狼隊或其他球隊。如果灰狼隊想重新簽下他，假設 Randle 選擇執行，而 Reid 選擇放棄，那麼球隊在第二層豪華稅線下，大約還有2780萬美元的空間可以簽下他（Gobert 合約發揮作用）。這還沒有考慮到選秀會第17順位（預計薪資約為 420萬美元）和第31順位（第二輪選秀權不受薪資限制，但第30順位的薪資預計為274萬美元可作為參考）。 What about NAW? NAW 的動向？ This is where fans might have to prepare themselves for some heartbreak. Nickeil Alexander-Walker was making $4.3 million this season. He is in line to be a target for teams to spend their midlevel exception, which opens his market to many more teams than Reid or Randle, who will be making or looking to make more than the approximately $14 million midlevel exception. Nickeil Alexander-Walker 本賽季的薪資為430萬美元。他有望成為各隊動用中產特例的目標，這使得他的市場比 Reid 和 Randle 更廣闊，因為 Reid 和 Randle 的起薪將超過1400萬美元的中產特例。 This is where Alexander-Walker’s next payday could land. It just doesn’t look like the Wolves could afford to pay him around $14 million while staying under the second apron and retaining Randle or Reid. If they lose Randle or Reid, then it would seem retaining Alexander-Walker is on the table. 這可能是NAW下一份合約的落點。灰狼隊似乎無法在支付他約1400萬美元的薪資，同時又保持第二層豪華稅線下，並留住 Randle、Reid。如果他們失去 Randle 或 Reid，那麼留下 NAW 似乎就成為可能。 But the Wolves seemingly have young players at guard or wing waiting , such as Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark and Rob Dillingham, who could fill his spot in the rotation. 但目前陣中二、三號有多位年輕小將在等待擠進輪替的機會。 For the future, the Wolves also need to see what they have in their young talent, especially Dillingham, as Mike Conley enters the final year of his contract, when he will turn 38. Free agency can always take unexpected twists and turns, so never say never, but bringing back Alexander-Walker will be tough without re-entering the second apron. 對於未來，灰狼隊也需要看看陣中年輕小將的能耐，特別是Dillingham，因為 Mike Conley 即將進入合約的最後一年，屆時將年滿38歲。自由球員市場總是會出現意想不到的轉折，所以永遠不要說不可能，但若要續留NAW ，同時不重新突破第二層豪華稅線，將會有難度。 The KD wild card KD 變數 There’s one thing that can upend the Wolves’ offseason and the trajectory of this franchise in years to come: The Wolves making another attempt to trade for Phoenix forward Kevin Durant. 有一件事可以顛覆灰狼隊的休賽季以及這支球隊未來幾年的走向：再次嘗試交易來 Kevin Durant。 The Wolves tried to trade for him at February’s trade deadline but came up short. It’s likely they will make some calls back to the Suns to see if the interest is there again. 灰狼隊曾在二月份的交易截止日前嘗試交易他，但未能成功。他們很可能會再次聯繫太陽隊，觀察是否有再次交易的意願。 Durant is the favorite player of Edwards, who played with his childhood hero at the Olympics last summer. There seems to be an interest in Durant playing again with Edwards. Durant, who averaged 26.6 points per game on 53% shooting (43% from three-point range) in 2024-25, will turn 37 in September. He will be entering the final year of his contract and will make $54.7 million next season. KD 是 AE 最喜歡的球員，AE 去年夏天在奧運會上與這位兒時偶像並肩作戰。KD 似乎也對兩人再次合作有興趣。2024-25賽季，KD場均得到26.6分，投籃命中率為53%（三分球命中率為43%），他將在九月滿37歲。下賽季進入合約的最後一年，年薪為5470萬美元。 To trade for Durant, the Wolves would have to shake up the roster in a big way, and it likely would mean relying on some of the young talent to fill out their depth, if such a move occurs. They have limited draft capital to trade, so they would have to get creative and perhaps even deal some of those young players and current rotation pieces to make the move happen. 為了交易 KD，灰狼隊將不得不大幅調整陣容，而且可能意味著需要依賴一些小將來填補陣容深度。球隊的選秀資產有限，因此他們必須發揮創意，甚至可能交易一些年輕小將和現有的輪替陣容來促成這筆交易。 That move is hard to predict and would throw everything else I just said above out the window. But such is the NBA offseason. 這個異動仍有很多不確定性，且會推翻前述所有事情，但這就是NBA的休賽季。 --- 月底從 Naz 和 Randle 的決定開始，逐漸就能看出球隊休賽季發展，繼續保持競爭力還是第一要務。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 59.115.133.242 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Timberwolves/M.1748793848.A.D2C.html

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