[情報] Men's Look Forward: Week of October 27
http://www.tennisnews.com/news.php3?id=3874&orig=index
以下為節錄
#2 seed Andy Roddick will have to be, if anything, even more ready. The fast
court will of course help his serve -- but it will help his opponents' serves,
too, and the American's results in the past few weeks have shown that he's
still vulnerable indoors. And he has to open against Wayne Ferreira (or a
qualifier), and the South African is good at handling big serves. The third
round may well prove easier for Roddick; he would face Tommy Robredo or Gaston
Gaudio or wildcard Richard Gasquet (and good luck guessing which one it will be
). But then, in theory, comes David Nalbandian, who almost beat him at the
U. S. Open and did beat him at Basel. And then Roger Federer. Roddick has learned
to beat Federer, finally -- but that was on hardcourt. Carpet definitely helps
Federer more than Roddick.
糟.....我又有不祥的預感...........
The Rankings
In this instance, there isn't all that much point in looking at the rankings
as such; except for the top eight, they won't matter after this week. (Besides,
we don't really want to have to calculate where Marat Safin will end up once
his points come off -- and they will come off, since he isn't playing.) We'll
just briefly examine the #1 spot. Juan Carlos Ferrero still holds it, of course
, and Andy Roddick did nothing to strengthen his position at Basel. That means
Ferrero comes in with 4570 points and Roddick with 4235. Ferrero lost his
opening match at Paris 2002; Roddick made the quarterfinal. Thus Ferrero comes
in with 4565 safe points, Roddick with only 4110. So Roddick, to become #1,
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
must win Paris, and Ferrero must lose his opener.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The Race is altogether another matter. Ferrero's lead in the rankings is almost
all Masters Cup points, since he was last year's finalist. Ferrero leads
Roddick by only four Race points -- an effective tie. Whoever lasts longer at
Paris will be #1 in the Race, with ties going to Ferrero. But the year-end #1
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
is certain to be settled at the Masters Cup. (Though a good result here will be
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
a big help at Houston; if either one wins here, he will build up a difficult-to
-surmount lead.)
And we are certain that Ferrero and Roddick will be atop the standings (in some
order) when this is over. Roger Federer can't overtake them. But it's still do
or die for Federer. He's roughly 125 points back in the Race, with a maximum of
250 points available at Paris and Houston. If he is to have any chance at all,
he must -- emphasize must --- gain at least some ground this week.
Guillermo Coria finds himself up to #4 in the Race, ahead of Andre Agassi; he
has a long way to go to overtake Federer, meaning that it probably won't happen
this week (if Federer loses first round and Coria makes the final, they end up
tied; Coria must win Paris to pass Federer, and even that is possible only if
Federer loses before the semifinal) -- but a good result could allow him to
threaten Federer at Houston.
Rainer Schuettler also could overtake Agassi; he needs a semifinal to do it.
Below Schuettler is an uncrossable gap. The top six will remain the Top Six
next week. Below that, all is crazy. We know that Carlos Moya will be going to
the Masters Cup, but David Nalbandian could still knock him out of the #7 spot
-- especially since Moya isn't playing. But Nalbandian himself -- who as we've
repeatedly noted is iffy -- is still somewhat threatened by Mark Philippoussis
and Sebastien Grosjean, who are effectively tied in the contest for #9. In
theory, even Paradorn Srichaphan and Younes El Aynaoui could overtake
Nalbandian, though they would have to win Paris and hope none of the players
above them do well. Philippoussis, given his recent balance of results (he has
never won a carpet title, though he was runner-up in Paris in 2000) may not be
a big danger, but Grosjean -- the 2001 champion -- represents a genuine if
slight threat. Ironically, though several players -- notably Srichaphan, but
also El Aynaoui and Sjeng Schalken and even Gustavo Kuerten -- could boot one
or both of them out of the Top Ten. And, of course, whoever is #9 in the Race
becomes Masters Cup alternate, and the #10 spot also assures a year-end Top
Ten ranking.
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