Capital improvements
Capital improvements
Unheralded Wizards could challenge for Southeast Division title
Posted: Tuesday August 10, 2004 2:35PM;
Updated: Tuesday August 10, 2004 3:19PM
John Hollinger, SI.com
Think the Miami Heat are a cinch to win a Southeast Division
that includes perennial patsies Atlanta, Orlando, Washington
and the汢xpansion Charlotte Bobcats?
Think again.
In spite of Miami's recent trade for Shaquille O'Neal, I wouldn't
be surprised at all if Washington, rather than嗰iami, won the
Southeast Division this year.
In saying this, I realize I may be the only person on the planet
who hasn't conceded the Southeast Division to Miami. I can hear
the chortling already. "C'mon, dude, the Wizards? Are you stoned
or just stupid?"
Hear me out. For starters, the Heat won't win 60 games,
and probably not even 50 -- not with a supporting cast than
includes Dwyane Wade, Eddie Jones and little else. Even if
Shaq shows up angry and regains the edge that was missing
the past two years, the Heat's溻ineup isn't nearly as good as
the one he left, and he only topped 60 wins once with that gang.
I expect Miami's win total濳o end up somewhere in the mid-to-high 40s,
depending on how many games Shaq misses due to his assorted maladies.
Of氲ourse,濳o top the Heat, the Wizards still need to nearly
double their victory total of 25 from a year ago -- no small feat.
Given that the roster is almost identical to last year's,
how on earth do I expect them to do that?
To understand, first let's look at why the Wizards failed a year ago.
Washington's shortcomings were primarily the result of three malfunctions.
First, young small forwards Jarvis Hayes and Jared Jeffries shot like
they were blindfolded, which handcuffed the offense.
Second, injuries in the backcourt沲elled the Wizards' top濳hreeꀊscorers (Jerry Stackhouse, Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes), taking them
out of action for an average of 34 games each. And
third, the bench was too poor to overcome the injuries.
This summer Washington has remedied at least two of those problems.
The arrival of Antawn Jamison in a draft-day trade instantly solves
the issue of getting scoring from the small forward spot.
One of the league's smoothest shot-makers around the basket,
Jamison is an immensely helpful offensive player because he shoots
a high percentage without turning the ball over.
Jamison should help on the injury front, too.㗎e hasn't missed a game
in four seasons -- the NBA's longest active streak -- whereas
Stackhouse barely played in the 2003-04 season. Combine that withꀊthe healthy return漑f Arenas, who should be over the abdominal strain
that cost him 27 games last year and沲orced him to play烀ell below
full strength in several others, and the Wizards should be much more potent.
As for the bench ... well, the bench is still a problem.
But a few underrated moves by general manager Ernie Grunfeld have made it
less of an issue. The Wizards matched Miwaukee's offer sheet for
big man Etan Thomas, signed guard Anthony Peeler with their
veteran's exception and added big man Samaki Walker to round out the
frontcourt rotation. Keeping Thomas cements Washington's young, talented
frontcourt trio that also includes Kwame Brown and Brendan Haywood.
Together, they have quietly become among the best front lines in the
Eastern Conference, wich each乸veraging about 14 points and 10 rebounds
per 40 minutes last season while shooting nearly 50 percent.
Meanwhile, Peeler's arrival means Washington no longer will depend on
ball-hogging Juan Dixon to lead the second unit.
The additions of Jamison and Peeler are important on another level as well,
because they can produce points without dominating the ball.
Jamison just catches near the basket and flips it in, while Peeler
hangs out in the corner waiting for 3-pointers. Their reluctance to
dribble is an asset on this team, because one of Washington's problems
last season was that so many players needed the ball in their hands.
Arenas and Dixon were the worst offenders, but it was a problem with
all of the perimeter players, and the result was that the talented
young post players didn't get as many touches as they should have.
The biggest reason of all to like Washington this season, however,
is that湶t's still so∂oung. Look at the Wizards' lineup, and the
one thing that stands out is that everybody on the team stands to be
better this year than they were last year.
Washington's six key players -- Arenas, Hughes, Jamison, Brown, Haywood
and Thomas -- all are 28 or younger and already have impressive seasons
on their resum?s. In the backcourt, Arenas is still only 22, while
the vastly underrated Hughes is 25. Both could be 20-point scorers
this season. Up front it's more of the same. Haywood has become one of
the East's better centers and still is just 25, while the 22-year-old
Brown finally became a real basketball player last season and has plenty
of growth ahead.
A year of experience should make the bench better, too.
Hayes, Jeffries and Steve Blake all took their rookie lumps last year
(Jeffries was technically a second-year player but missed nearly all
of his rookie season with a knee injury.), but each is only 23 years old
and each should be significantly better as sophomores.
Add a shooter like reigning 3-point champion Peeler to the mix-- the one
missing link in this team's attack -- and it's easy to see how the offense
could improve毪y leaps and bounds from last season's disappointing
performance.
Do the Wizards have their flaws? Of course they do, or they wouldn't
have lost 57 games last season. While Peeler is an upgrade on Dixon,
the dropoff from the starters to reserves (Thomas excepted) remains
frightfully steep, so key injuries could once again lay them low.
Additionally, coach Eddie Jordan still has to get the guards to give up
shots for the big guys.
Picking a surprise team before the season is always perilous.
After all,湶t can't be considered a surprise if we expect it, right?
Nonetheless, it's hard to look at this team and not be excited about
this season and the ones beyond it. Washington already has one of the
better starting fives in the league, and that group should only get
better this coming season. While the Wizards haven't been relevant for
two decades, except as a sideshow during Michael Jordan's comeback,
nothing lasts forever. It says here that this is the season that
pattern changes.
Washington's super six
2003-04 stats per 40 minutes
Player Pos. Age Pts/40 Reb/40 FG%
Arenas PG 22 20.9 4.9 39.2
Hughes SG 25 22.3 6.3 39.7
Jamison SF 28 20.4 8.7 53.5
Brown PF 22 14.4 9.8 48.9
Haywood C 25 14.5 10.4 51.5
Thomas F/C 26 14.8 11.1 48.9
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