[譯文] Looking Ahead to 2008 - Alex Rodriguez

看板A-Rod作者niceta (龍蝦大閘蟹帶血牛排)時間17年前 (2008/05/03 00:51)推噓10(10推 0噓 2→)

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http://tinyurl.com/44tfaz Monday, February 25, 2008 (是篇過期臭酸到不行的文章，但去年有翻今年還是補一下好了) Looking Ahead to 2008 - Alex Rodriguez 展望 2008 年 - Alex Rodriguez Alex Rodriguez opted out of his contract with the Yankees during the World Series. For a few weeks it looked like his time with the Yankees was over and the team would have a huge hole to fill at third base. Alex Rodriguez 在世界大賽期間選擇跳脫合約，之後的幾個禮拜看來，似乎他在洋基的生涯已經結束，而洋基隊在三壘將會有個大洞要補。 What happened after that is open to several interpretations. The market seemingly did not bear what Rodriguez's agent Scott Boras had promised him, so he initiated contact with the Yankees who had made bold proclamations that if Rodriguez had opted out, they would not re-sign him. From there the Yankees and Rodriguez negotiated, allegedly without Boras and Rodriguez was brought back on a ten year contract. 之後所發生的一切，大家可能都會有不同的詮釋：市場似乎無法負擔 Rodriguez 的經紀人 Scott Boras 所承諾他的市場價值，所以 Rodriguez 主動聯絡之前聲稱若是他脫逃就不再續約的洋基隊，自此兩方又開始進行協商 (傳言是在 Boras 沒有介入的情況下)，然後 Rodriguez 就簽下一紙十年的合約，回到洋基陣中。 It is my opinion that Rodriguez put the blame on Boras to help him get some of the egg off his face after what was a PR disaster. Boras works for Rodriguez, it's not the other way around. 我自己的解讀是 Rodriguez 把錯都推到 Boras 身上，好讓自己在一場公關危機之後，比較不會那麼丟臉。是 Boras 替 Rodriguez 工作，而不是 Rodriguez 替 Boras 工作。 Frankly, none of that really matters in the big picture. Business is business, and I have no problems with Rodriguez using the opt-out clause that was negotiated into his contract, although I will admit I was pretty pissed when he first opted out. 老實說，長遠來看這一切都無關緊要。大家在商言商，而我對於 Rodriquez 使用他的脫逃條款也沒有異議，因為那本來就是白紙黑字寫在合約上面，但是我承認我在他一開始選擇 opt out 時還是蠻生氣的。 The Yankees are a much better team with Rodriguez than without him. If Rodriguez performs well, all this contract stuff should end up being a non-issue although it's doubtful the media will let it go away if at all possible. We've reset the A-Rod cover counter for 2008, but for 2007 Rodriguez made the front or back page of the NY Post and NY Daily News 137 separate times. Let's see if he can top that in 2008. 洋基隊上有 Rodriguez 當然會比沒有 Rodriguez 來得要好。要是 Rodriguez 表現優異，這些有關合約的紛紛擾擾當然都不成問題，不過我懷疑媒體真的會就此罷手。我們在 2008 年重設了 A-Rod 登上封面的計數器，但是他在 2007 年分別登上紐約郵報與紐約每日新聞封面與背封的次數高達 137 次，咱們來看 2008 年會不會超過這個次數。 2007 By just about any objective measure, Rodriguez was the best player in baseball last season. How good was Rodriguez? His lowest OPS at any point in the season was .976, which was his OPS after three games. That was the only day that his OPS was under 1, and the last day of the season that his OPS was under 1.022. 2007 就任何客觀上的衡量來說，Rodriguez 是去年球季表現最好的球員。到底 Rodriguez 有多厲害呢？他在季中 OPS 最低的時候是 .976，這是他在打完三場比賽後的成績，不但是唯一 OPS 低過 1 的一次，也是季中最後一次 OPS 低過 1.022 的一天。 Here's how Rodriguez performed compared to his projections going into 2007. 以下是 Rodriguez 在 2007 年的實際表現與預期成績的對照。 2007 PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BR/650 Avg PJ 650 557 107 162 26 1 34 110 15 4 81 127 10 .292 .390 .529 108 Actual 708 583 143 183 31 0 54 156 24 4 95 120 21 .314 .422 .645 136 % Diff 9% 5% 22% 3% 8% 45% 31% 46% -3% 7% -14% 8% 8% 22% 26% -100% 102% The percentage differences for everything except PA and AB are on a rate basis. Rodriguez was disgraceful, hitting no triples despite being projected to hit one in what was clearly a disappointing season. 除了PA與AB以外，每個項目的百分比差都是可以評比的。Rodriguez 遜斃了，三壘安打一支都沒有打出來，而且那個一支還是依據 (2006年) 那個很顯然是失望的球季投射出來的結果耶。 I kid of course. Rodriguez blew away his projections. He hit 22 pts higher than projected on batting average, hit 45% more HRs on a rate basis, walked 7% more frequently and struck out 14% less frequently (this was key IMO). He stole more bases than expected, and he provided 26% more offense according to linear weights on a rate basis. Rodriguez illustrates one of the major limitations with projection systems, they just aren't designed to handle the outliers. 當然我是在跟你說笑的。Rodriguez 完全超越他的預期表現。他的打擊平均比預測多出 0.22，而且對照比例，HR 多了 45%，BB 多了 7%，SO 比平常少 14% (我認為這是主要關鍵)。他的盜壘次數更多，提供的火力也多了 26% (根據 linear weights)。 Rodriguez 充分說明所有預測系統的主要缺陷：任何的預測對於那些例外者而言，完全是不管用的。　 Rodriguez was also able to get the "unclutch" monkey off his back, by hitting several key game-winning HRs in the ninth inning. Rodriguez 另外也一洗過去關鍵時刻烙賽的污名，在第九局時打了好幾支關鍵的全壘打。 April 7 vs. Chris Ray : http://tinyurl.com/57vww5 April 19 vs. Joe Borowski: http://tinyurl.com/5ltzat June 3 vs. Jon Papelbon: http://tinyurl.com/5nrckp Rodriguez hit .318/.448/.776 with runners in scoring position and two outs. He hit .357/.439/.686 in Late & Close situations (PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.). His worst split? When the margin of the game was greater than four runs (.218/.375/.540). Rodriguez 在 RISP 然後兩出局的打擊成績是 .318/.448/.776； Late & Close 情況下 (第七局或七局以後比數相同、領先一分，或是追平分站上壘包的打席) 的打擊成績是.357/.439/.686。他成績最糟的是哪種情況？當比數相差超過四分的時候 (.218/.375/.540)。 Unfortunately, Rodriguez had another disappointing post-season as the Yankees were eliminated in four games by Cleveland in the ALDS. He didn't hit particularly poorly overall thanks to a two hit game in Game 4 including a HR, but he got some grief regardless. Anyone that says that losing the ALDS was Rodriguez's fault is being foolish, but he didn't help as much as he could have. 很不幸地，Rodriguez 季後賽的表現再度讓大家失望了，而洋基也在 ALDS 被笑臉人在四場比賽掃地出局。他並沒有表現的特別差－－多虧 Game 4 單場兩支安打，包括一發全壘打－－但是他還是引發了一些不滿的情緒。那些說洋基會輸掉 ALDS 都是 A-Rod 害的肯定是笨蛋，但是他的確沒有提供預期的火力就是了。 --- 看 The Sopranos 去，待續。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.167.86.143