Re: [譯文] Looking Ahead to 2008 - Alex Rodriguez

看板A-Rod作者niceta (龍蝦大閘蟹帶血牛排)時間17年前 (2008/05/03 12:18)推噓11(11推 0噓 0→)

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(接上一篇) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Offense 2007 is over and done, so what can we look for in 2008? Thanks to last season, all the projection systems expect better from Rodriguez at age 32 than they did in heading into his age 31 season. 打擊 2007 年已經結束了，那麼我們對於 2008 年可以有什麼樣的期待呢？由於去年球季的成績表現，所有的預測系統都預測 Rodriguez 在 32 歲會比在邁向 31 歲的球季成績要來的好。 Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BRAA BRAR chone 653 551 124 167 25 1 47 123 16 4 88 122 14 .303 .412 .608 51 67 marcel 621 525 108 157 26 1 36 116 17 4 79 118 12 .299 .399 .558 39 54 pecota 684 572 120 169 34 2 36 116 23 4 94 130 11 .294 .401 .550 43 59 zips 698 590 127 180 30 1 44 151 16 3 93 132 15 .305 .413 .583 51 68 cairo 689 581 123 174 27 1 43 129 19 4 90 128 14 .299 .403 .570 46 63 average 669 564 121 169 28 1 41 127 18 4 89 126 13 .300 .406 .574 46 62 For more information on the projections being used here, you can look at the first entry in this series. 如果要瞭解這裡所使用之預測系統的詳細資訊，請見 http://tinyurl.com/65loz6 Rodriguez projects to be somewhere between 5 to 7 wins better than a replacement level 3B in 2008, on average around 6 wins better. CAIRO lines up fairly well with the other projections, sort of in the middle. Here's how CAIRO sees Rodriguez's range of projections. Rodriguez 在 2008 年的預測成績比 3B 替補球員要多出大約 5-7 勝，比聯盟平均要多出 6 勝。CAIRO 系統跟其他預測結果差不多，大概是中間值。以下我們就來看看 CAIRO 如何評量 Rodriguez 的預測成績範圍。 CAIRO % PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BRAA BRAR 　　80% 689 581 135 187 33 2 49 140 24 2 99 117 18 .322 .442 .639 68 85 　　65% 689 581 129 181 30 1 46 134 21 3 95 122 16 .311 .422 .604 57 74 Baseline 689 581 123 174 27 1 43 129 19 4 90 128 14 .299 .403 .570 46 63 　　35% 689 581 118 167 25 0 39 123 17 5 85 134 12 .288 .384 .536 35 51 20% 689 581 112 161 22 0 36 117 15 6 80 139 10 .277 .365 .501 24 40 Rodriguez is so good that even the 80% projection doesn't seem that unrealistic. His 20% projection would be considered disappointing but it would STILL be 4 wins better than a replacement level 3B. This is a great player, and he's going to be a Yankee for the next ten years, so for the vocal minority that still dislikes him, WTF is wrong with you? To quote the great Ric Flair: 因為 Rodriguez 太厲害了，所以就算是 80% 的預測成績似乎也不是那麼地不切實際，如果只有 20% 的話，雖說真的有點令人失望，但還是比 3B 替補球員要多 4 勝。他是一個偉大的球員，而他在往後的十年將名列洋基隊的陣中球員，所以針對那些嘴巴上還是嚷嚷著他不喜歡A-Rod的少數球迷，你他媽的是有什麼毛病？送你 Ric Flair (此君乃美國職業摔跤手: http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Ric_Flair) 的名言：　　Whether you like it, or you don't like it, learn to love it, because 　　it's the best thing going today. 　　不管你喜不喜歡，最好學著愛上它，因為這是今天發生最美妙的事。　　 The sooner the Yankee fans who dislike Rodriguez embrace him, the sooner they'll get to enjoy the play of the best player on the team. 那些討厭 Rodriguez 的洋基球迷愈快接納他，就能夠越快享受這支球隊陣中最佳球員所帶來的表現。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Defense Lost in the monstrous season by Rodriguez offensively was the fact that he played much better defense as well. He ended the season a smidgen above average by zone rating, but he was actually pretty solidly above average most of the season. On July 23 Rodriguez's zone rating was .821 compared to the AL average of .765 and he had made around 14 plays more than an average AL 3B, which was roughly equivalent to saving 11 runs above average to that point and 19 runs over 162 games. Over the remaining 57 games Rodriguez's zone rating was only .669 and he made somewhere around 11 plays fewer than average. To my eyes he didn't seem to play any worse in the second half although he made 7 errors over 130 chances as opposed to 6 errors over his first 240 chances, so he may have just faced harder opportunities. Still, overall it was a nice rebound after a couple of pretty bad defensive seasons. 防守由於 Rodriguez 的打擊成績太過輝煌，所以我們很容易忽略他的防守也表現的更好了。球季結束時他的 ZR 只比平均要好一咪咪，但是事實上，他在整個球季的大多時候都還蠻穩的，7 月 23 號時 Rodriguez 的 ZR 是 .821，對照美聯平均則是 .765。他比美聯 3B 平均多完成了 14 次的守備，大約等於比平均多省下 11 分，162 場比賽下來省下 19 分。接下來的 57 場比賽 Rodriguez 的 ZR 只有 .669，他比平均要少完成 11次守備。我的眼睛告訴我他在下半球季的表現並沒有比較差 (雖然他在 130 次的防守機會下犯了 7 次失誤，對照前 240 次防守機會只犯下 6 次失誤)，所以有可能是他所要處理的防守機會困難度較高。但是總括來說，在兩年守備較差的球季之後，2007 年應該算是守備回穩。 Year Pos GP Innings PO A E DP PM CH ZR PMAA RSAA RSAA/162 2004 3B 155 1364 100 262 13 25 286 364 .786 14 11 12 2005 3B 161 1385 115 288 12 26 321 436 .736 -15 -12 -13 2006 3B 151 1288 96 262 24 24 289 390 .741 -10 -8 -9 2007 3B 154 1330 106 251 13 30 283 370 .765 2 1 1 Projection 155 1334 104 262 16 27 292 387 .755 -4 -3 -4 Between his below average play in 2005 and 2006 and the fact that he's going to be another year older, I project Rodriguez to be about 3-4 runs below average in 2008. I think his bat can carry that though... 基於 2005 年與 2006 年低於平均的防守表現，加上他又老了一歲，所以我預估 Rodriguez 在 2008 年會比平均低 3-4 分。希望他可以靠棒子打回來... --------------------------------------------------------------------- Baserunning Not only can Rodriguez hit well and field passably, he's an outstanding baserunner too. By Lee Panas's bases gained above average, Rodriguez gained 11.8 bases above average on hits, 2.7 on grounders, 2.5 on fly outs, and another 11.1 on other situations. Good for 28.1 total BGAA, which ranked sixth in the AL. I'd regress that some for 2008 and say a conservative projection would be something like +15. 跑壘 Rodriguez 不僅是打擊強，守備能夠維持中等，而他在跑壘上也有優異的表現。根據 Lee Panas 的 bases gained above average，Rodriguez 在安打情況下比平均多跑出 11.8 個壘包，滾地球是多 2.7 個，飛球接殺是多 2.5 個，其他情況下則是多 11.1 個。BGAA 總計是 28.1，美聯排名第六。我想 2008 年應該會有點衰退，保守預測大概是 +15。 ------------------------------------ Value Well, Rodriguez has the biggest contract in baseball history. Is he worth it? 價值 Rodriguez 簽下了棒球史上最大的合約，他是否值這個身價？ Value Runs Wins Offense 62 6.2 Defense -3 -0.3 Baserunning 4 0.4 Overall Value 63 6.3 2008 Value (in millions) 27.2 2008 Salary (in millions) 27.0 Difference 0.2 At least for 2008, Rodriguez's compensation is in line with his projection of being 6.3 wins above replacement level overall. His contract is going to start looking worse as he gets older and further away from his peak, although inflation will help to mitigate that at least partially. I also tend to think that a linear look at value penalizes a star player like Rodriguez. What I mean by that is in theory a pair of three win players are as valuable as one six win player on paper, but the fact that Rodriguez only takes up one roster spot to get you those six wins has some inherent value as well, especially for a large revenue team. 至少就 2008 年來說，Rodriguez 的報酬大致符合他比替補球員整體要多出 6.3 勝的身價。隨著他年紀更大，離生涯巔峰期越來越遠，他的合約可能就會顯得更難看 (雖然通貨膨脹應該可以減輕至少部分程度的差異)。我也是偏向認為用直線性概念 (等比) 去估算球員的身價，對於像 Rodriguez 這樣的明星球員是不利的。我的意思是說，理論上兩名三勝的球員合約價值應該要等於一名六勝的球員，但是 Rodriguez 只佔輪值名單中的其中一名就能夠帶給你六勝，這本身就有其價值所在，特別是對於一個肯花錢的球隊來說。 ---------------------------------- Conclusion As a fan, I really looked forward to Rodriguez's at-bats last season. It's hard to put it in words, but there was something cool about the anticipation watching the people in front of Rodriguez doing whatever they could to get on base to set up the big guy in the cleanup spot to do his magic, and he did it all year. This is a Hall of Famer who may have just had the best season of his career at age 31 and he should continue to be the best player on the team for the next few years. More than any player on the team, Rodriguez will be the difference between the Yankees making or missing the playoffs. Let's hope he can stay healthy, and let's hope the rest of the team can contribute to get them to the playoffs. From there, maybe Rodriguez will have the postseason that he probably needs to have to FINALLY get accepted as a Yankee. 總結身為一名球迷，我去年球季真的都還蠻期待 Rodriguez 上來打擊。這種感覺很難用言語形容，但是你會期待看到 Rodriguez 前面的打者想盡辦法上壘，然後讓後面這號人物上來發揮他清空壘包的能力，而他也這樣表現了一整年。這是一名名人堂級的球員，他可能剛在他 31 歲這年打下他生涯最好的成績，而接下來這幾年，應該也還是隊上最好的球員。相對於其他球員來說，Rodriguez 可能更容易左右洋基能否打進季後賽，希望他能夠保持健健康康，也希望其他球員也可以發揮實力，共同打進季後賽。也許在進入季後賽後，他能夠打出一個"終於"可以被大家認可是洋基人的季後賽成績。 --- 一些數據的譯法不太確定，有錯請指正。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.167.86.143