Five Questions: Oakland Athletics

看板Athletics作者youngways (Athletics)時間19年前 (2007/03/13 13:36)推噓9(9推 0噓 3→)

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Five Questions: Oakland Athletics 五個問題：綠帽 by Sal Baxamusa March 12, 2007 When the "Five Questions" preview assignments went up for grabs, I plucked the A's assignment as quickly as I could. There are few things in the world that I am truly passionate about, and of course one of those things is A's baseball. Another one of those things is my family, and it is by the grace of providence that my wife is always tolerant, usually encouraging, and occasionally enthusiastic about my particular brand of fandom. Living on the East Coast means that I complain incessantly about MLb.tv while watching games at ungodly hours of night, and yet when September rolls around she's not sick of me-or baseball-yet. To honor her inexplicable commitment to me, I am going to let her ask the Five Questions. 當Five Questions的工作分配表做好以供選取時候，我以我最快的速度挑選了綠帽這份工作。這世上有少數幾件事情是我真正有熱情，而當然，關於綠帽棒球相關的事情是其中之一。另一個則是我的家庭，這得感謝老天，我的太太對我這種球迷特有的行徑，總是包容、鼓勵、偶而也熱情地參與。住在東岸意味著當我在夜晚荒唐地花上幾個小時看MLB.TV的比賽時，並且不斷地抱怨，然而到了九月的時候，他仍然沒有對我或棒球感到厭煩。為了對他不可思議的支持致敬，我將讓他來問這五個問題。 What will the A's do without Zito and Thomas? A's沒有了Zito和Thomas將會如何？ My wife is a casual fan, and casual fans will remember Barry Zito and Frank Thomas as forming the basis for the A's success last year. It's not a bad record of history; Zito led the pitching staff in WSAB and Thomas did the same among hitters. Both took a familiar road out of Oakland, free agency, leaving the team scrambling for help on both the run prevention and run scoring. 我太太是個一般的球迷，而一般的球迷將會記得Barry Zito和Frank Thomas是去年A's成功的基石，繳出不賴的數據;Zito在WSAB領先投手群，而Thomas也一樣地領先其他打者，兩個人都以相同的方式離開Oakland--自由球員，留下球隊混亂地在市場上爭奪投手以及打擊的助拳人。 For pitchers, the A's signed Alan Embree as the primary left-handed guy in the 'pen to free Joe Kennedy for starting duty. Kennedy is not as good as Zito by any stretch of the imagination, but the A's are clearly hoping that 30+ starts by Rich Harden can make up the difference. Mathematically, Oakland is banking that (Harden + Kennedy) > (Zito + Harden/Kirk Saarloos/Brad Halsey). That's not a bad bet so long as Harden stays healthy, but the A's will count their blessings if his annual oblique strain only keeps him out for a few starts and doesn't cascade into a scary elboy injury like last year. 就投手部份來說，綠帽簽下Alan Embree當主要的左手牛，讓Joe Kennedy 去負責先發的工作。就算根據荂張得想像，Kennedy還是不如Zito那麼好，但是綠帽很明顯地是在希望靠著Rich Harden三十場以上的先發能彌補這差異，用數學表示就是，Oakland希望 Harden + Kennedy > Zito + Harden/Saarloos/Halsey。這是個不差的賭注，只要Harden保持健康，不過綠帽將得寄望在他們的祈禱上，假設只是他每年發生的斜肌拉傷，讓他錯失幾場先發，而不是像去年嚇人的手肘受傷般，一洩千里。 On the hitting side, Mike Piazza will be stretched to replace Thomas. Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, Milton Bradley, Mark Ellis will have to stay healthy and productive if the A's want to match even last year's below-average offensive output. The lineup has a decent dose of on-base ability, but there is a distinct lack of power as only Piazza, Swisher, and Chavez project to 20 home runs. The offense won't be awful, but it will be awful frustrating as the high-OBP, low-SLG approach will lead to lots of double plays and stranded runners. 在打者方面，如果綠帽想要達到去年低於平均的打擊表現，Mike Piazza將得盡力取代Thomas，Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, Milton Bradley, Mark Ellis將必須保持健康而且有所貢獻，這個打線有不錯的上壘能力，但是明顯地缺少大棒子，當只有Piazza, Swisher和Chavez被預期有20隻以上的全壘打，這樣的打線並不很糟糕，但將會讓人傷當洩氣，因為高OBP、低SLG的方式將會導致許多的雙殺和殘壘。 Who's going to be "your boy" this year? 今年誰會是你的好傢伙？ Embarassment is what I get for letting my wife ask the questions. Every year, I dub an Athletic "my boy". Whenever that player does something good, I run around the house screaming, "That's my boy!" In 2004 it was Crosby, in 2005 it was Nick Swisher, and in 2006 it was Chad Gaudin. I tend to lean toward younger players that I think will have a large but uncounted-upon contribution. 我被我太太問道這個問題時，令我感到有點尷尬。每一年，我都為一位球員取 "我的好傢伙"的綽號，不論何時，當那個球員表現好的時候，我繞著屋子大叫：我的好傢伙！2004年是Crosby，2005年是Nick Swisher，而2006則是 Chad Gaudin。我傾向那些我認為將會大有貢獻，但是不被看好的年輕球員。 But unlike Oakland teams of recent vintage, this team is not particularly young. At 26, Swisher is the youngest among likely starting position players; in the rotation, Rich Harden has outgrown the precocious label and and is now the longest-tenured Athletic starter. In the middle of 2004, this was an up-and-coming team with the primes of Harden, Swisher, Crosby, Chavez, Huston Street, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Dan Johnson still to come. And while some of these players have delivered, either poor health or poor performance have kept Blanton, Johnson, Crosby, and Chavez from becoming everything A's fans thought they would. 但是不像近幾年的收成，這隻球隊已經不那麼年輕了。26歲，Swisher可能是先發的球員中最年輕的，在先發投手中，Rich Harden已經長成珍貴的投手，而且也是目前綠帽資歷最深的先發投手。在2004年中的時候，這是隻有前途的球隊，有著那些值得期待的年輕人，Harden, Swisher, Crosby, Chavez, Huston Street, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, and Dan Johnson，其中一些人已經定型，不論是傷痛不斷或是不怎樣的表現，已經讓Blanton, Johnson, Crosby和 Chavez選離當初A's的球迷們認為的他們會有的表現。 That brings us to the 2007 model, which will need significant contributions from old-timers Mike Piazza, Jason Kendall, Shannon Stewart, Mark Kotsay (already out for three months after back surgery) and Esteban Loaiza. Old players aren't as a rule aren't bad things, but the old players that Oakland can afford are generally...well, let's just say that Stewart probably won't finish in the top five for MVP balloting. But since there is a dearth of youngish guys with no expectations, this year I'm going to reverse course and dub Loaiza as "my boy." He struggled mightily with a bum shoulder early last year, but when healthy he pitched well (4.42 ERA, 3:1 K:BB, 0.9 HR/9). If he can do that over 180 innings this year, A's fans should be ecstatic-and that's not out of the question given his THT projection (4.27 ERA, 2.23 K:BB, 0.9 HR/9). That would be excellent production out of a #3 starter. 這導致2007年的隊形，將需要Esteban Loaiza, Mike Piazza, Jason Kendall, Shannon Stewart和Mark Kotsay(因為背部手術，已經三個月不見蛋去了)老人們的貢獻，用老人並不一定就是壞事，但是Oakland可以負擔得起的老人...嗯...咱們這麼說好了，Stewart大概不可能在MVP票選的前五名，但是自從缺乏沒有經驗的年輕人之後，今年我將改變我的作法，叫Loaiza作為我的好傢伙。 (翻到這裡....突然有種起雞皮疙搭的感覺) 他去年球季初因為肩傷稍微地跌跌撞撞 (稍微？？o.O)，但是當他健康的時候投得還不錯(4.42 ERA, 3:1 K:BB, 0.9 HR/9)，假如他可以維持這水準超過180局，A's的球迷應該會超開心，而且這並沒有超出他的THT預測(4.27 ERA, 2.23 K:BB, 0.9 HR/9)，這樣三號先發投手的成績將是非常棒的。 He is not an easy guy to root for, but I'll have to stretch my limits this season. So, uh, go Esteban! You're my boy! (Late note: Loaiza exited his last Spring Training game with "shoulder tightness." This could be a looong season.) 他並不是一個容易令人想支持的球員，不過呢...我今年球季將會放寬我的矜持，所以...嗯...去吧！阿斯拉！(對不起...我實在翻不出：去吧！羅愛殺！這種句子 orz) Are there any names that I should know? 有甚麼任何名字是我應該知道的嗎？ Translation: she wants to surprise me in August by randomly asking, "I thought that [player X] would be really good this year. How's he doing?" She likes to humor me. 作者翻譯這個問題："他想要讓我驚訝，在八月的時候隨口問：我覺得球員X今年會很不錯，他表現得怎麼樣了？" 他喜歡迎合我的興趣。 Two A's on the short list of "might be household names by June" are Haren and Milton Bradley. Many fans, and I would guess most THT readers, know very well who Haren and Bradley are. Either could be one of the top five players at their positions starting this year. 兩位A's球員在六月之前將會為人所熟知的候選名單上，Haren和Bradley。許多球迷，我猜大多是THT的讀者，都瞭解誰是Haren和Bradley了，今年，任一個都可能是在那個位置的先發球員中的前五名。 The THT projection is very bullish on Haren (3.91 ERA, 3:1 K:BB, 1 HR/9, and ninth-highest Wins Above Replacemnt in the AL); I'm perhaps even more optimistic. The more I watch Dan Haren the more I see Roy Halladay-like upside. Haren is stingy with the walks, keeps the ball on the ground, and pitches deep into games. There's a decent chance that he emerges as the best non-Felix pitcher in the AL West and one of the top five in the AL. THT預測對於Haren是非常樂觀的(3.91 ERA, 3:1 K:BB, 1 HR/9而且在AL的 Win Above Replacement排名第九);我甚至更加樂觀，我看越多Dan Haren的比賽，我看到越多像Roy Halladay的潛力。Haren極少保送，保持讓球在地上滾，並且把比賽帶到後段，有不錯的機會，他會是Felix之外，AL西區最佳的投手，並且是AL前五名。 Bradley's potential and troubles are well documented, and a number of teams have taken a chance that Bradley will realize the one while forgetting the other. Last year, he appeared to outgrow any lingering behavioral issues-at least the public ones-and now has a positively cheery relationship with the local media and (presumably) his teammates. Last year's batting line of .276/.370/.447 is in line with reasonable expectations of his capabilities, he rarely has poor at-bats, and he will be expected to man center field while Kotsay is out. If he puts up that line while playing above-average defense, he will be a very valuable player; any better and he would trail only Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells among AL centerfielders. But all of this is of course contingent on his health: he missed 66 games last season and has exceeded 140 games only once. Bradley的潛力和問題眾所皆知，而有數隻球隊嘗試過，希望Bradley會瞭解到他的潛能而忘記他的問題。去年，他顯得成熟不再注重他行為上的問題，至少在公開上，現在和當地媒體有個正面、愉快的關係以及他的隊友。去年的打擊成績 .276/.370/.447符合他能力的合理預期，他很少有打不好的時候，而他將被預期鎮守中外野，當Kotsay不在的時候，假如他的防守高於平均水準的情況下，繳出那樣的成績，他將會是非常有價值的球員;再好一點，他在AL的中外野之中，僅次於 Grady Sizemore和Vernon Wells，但是這一切可能會有意外，在於他的健康，他上一季缺席了66場比賽，而且他只有一年出賽超過140場。 Will you be crying inconsolably in October? 你在十月的時後會哭得很傷心嗎？ Since 2000, the A's have been either eliminated in the playoffs or in the last days of the season, often in spectacularly heart-rending fashion. My world is shattered and my poor wife is left to pick up the pieces while I sit shiv'ah. This year, she'll have less time to prepare but elimination won't be so awful. In other words, I have a hard time imagining that the A's will be realistically in the race deep into September. With all due respect to the Mariners, the AL West looks to be three teams deep. 自從2000年之後，綠帽不是在季後賽，就是在球季結束前幾天，通常以特別令人心碎的方式被幹掉，我的世界整個粉碎而我可憐的太太則得去撿起那些碎片，當我坐在shiv'ah(sit shiv'ah不知道是甚麼意思)。今年他將只有比較少的時間來準備這樣的情況，並非被幹掉將不再那麼糟糕，換句話說，我不太能想像A's真的將會競爭到九月底，因為基於對水兵的尊重，AL西區看起來會是三隊競爭。 Texas, Los Angeles, and Oakland finished with nearly identical Pythagorean records last year. While the offseason record of the Rangers is mixed, the Angels almost certainly have improved. The A's will have good pitching, but the Angels look absolutely stacked. Neither team will have a world-beating offense, but the Angels have lots of young players with upside and the A's have a number of players whose injury struggles could crater the offense. It's not a slam-dunk that the A's will fall out of the race by early September, but it would not be surprising. In this case, I will have had plenty of time to accept the fate of the A's. And if the A's are going strong deep into September or even October, I will be more than happy to have my heart broken. 騎警、安琦和綠帽去年以近似畢氏定理的成績結束(3^2+4^2=5^2嗎？)，當球季結束，騎警加入了一些人，而安琦幾乎確定增強了實力，綠帽有好的投手群，但是安琦看起來絕對體態豐滿，呃...是隊形完整，沒有那隻球隊有無敵的打線，不過安琦有不少有天份的年輕人，而綠帽有為數不少容易因傷掙扎，讓打線坑坑洞洞的球員，這並不是說綠帽絕對在九月初就被淘汰出局，不過這並不是令人意外的事情，我將有許多時間來接受綠帽的命運，而且，假如綠帽一路走到九月底甚至十月的話，我將會開心多過於心碎的。 Are you ever going to take out the garbage? 你到底要不要拿垃圾去丟？ I told you I'd take it out after dinner. And you just burned the fifth question on something that has nothing to do with the A's. 我告訴過你，我會在晚餐之後拿去丟的，而你剛剛把第五個問題浪費在跟綠帽一點關係都沒有的事情上面。 It wasn't really a question. 這不算是個問題。 Ah. 唉。（甚麼鬼？這是來騙稿費的還是搞笑啊？？丟筆 =.= 後面的作者介紹就省略啦) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.137.188.4