Re: [轉錄][新聞] ESPN專家評本季最佳十大新秀
原文：
These 10 rooks are head of the class at All-Star breakBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
When it comes to this year's rookie class, the compliments haven't exactly
been piling up. Many have compared it to the depressing class of 2000, when
Mike Miller won the Rookie of the Year award because, well, they had to give
it to somebody.
Hollinger's Super Sophs
Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Andrew Bogut. The soph class is loaded. Check out
John Hollinger's top 10 second-year players. Super Sophs
Nonetheless, some of the kids have shown a bit more pep in the past few
weeks, and as we head into the rookie-sophomore game it's probably time to
take another look at the rookie class. This time we'll take a top-down
approach, checking out the best 10 from the class (a couple of whom weren't
selected for tonight's rookies versus sophomores shindig) and seeing which
have performed the best thus far.
As always, a few notes on the judging criteria. We're evaluating performance
to date here, not future results, so nobody will be getting bonus points for
potential. However, I will weigh recent performance more heavily than the
first month, as I think it's reasonable to consider it a portent of the rest
of that player's season.
10. Alexander Johnson, Memphis
Um, who?
Nobody is following the Grizzlies much and certainly nobody is paying
attention to their second-round draft pick out of Florida State, but maybe
people should be.
Johnson is a powerfully built 6-9 forward who has thrown down some vicious
jams in his limited minutes, while shooting 52.5 percent and posting a very
strong 16.9 Rebound Rate.
He'd get more pub but for Memphis' committee approach next to Pau Gasol,
which results in Johnson, Lawrence Roberts, Hakim Warrick and, until Tuesday,
Jake Tsakalidis splitting the minutes.
9. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto
The top overall pick has certainly shown flashes, but has been a mild
disappointment based on his numbers in Europe a year earlier.
Scoring isn't the problem. His numbers have been about what we expected, with
a slightly higher output and lower shooting percentage, and looking at him
one can see the broad-based skills that could make him a potent offensive
performer down the road.
But his inability to rebound is a mystery.
Bargnani did a solid job on the boards in the Euroleague last year and
projected to grab 9.6 per 40 minutes in the NBA; additionally, rebounding
normally translates very well across leagues, so there's usually little
variation from these estimates.
But Bargnani has barely mustered half that total as a rookie, with his 5.8
boards per 40 minutes looking fairly pathetic for a forward who is nearly 7
feet tall.
8. Randy Foye, Minnesota
Thought of as a Rookie of the Year favorite after a dominating summer league
performance, Foye has given a middling performance in his first season in
Minnesota.
He's defended fairly well but not been the scorer some thought. The biggest
red flag has been the absence of free-throw attempts -- for a player who
penetrates as much as Foye does you'd think he'd get to the line more than
twice a game.
He did manage to take over the starting point guard job, but that had as much
to do with the failures of Mike James as it did with the performance of Foye.
7. Rudy Gay, Memphis
He would have rated much lower two weeks ago, but Gay has put together his
best stretch of basketball in the past few weeks while uncorking a couple of
wicked dunks in traffic that indicate he might not be as soft as we thought.
Gay hasn't shot the ball as well as hoped, with just a 42.9 percent mark from
the floor and not nearly enough 3s or free throws to make up for it. He's
been solid on the boards, though, so if the shots keep falling -- as they are
lately -- he'll zoom up this list.
6. Sergio Rodriguez, Portland
"Spanish Chocolate" would rank higher if he'd played more minutes, but a
crowded guard rotation and a recent injury have combined to keep him on the
pine much of the season.
When he's played, he's been breathtaking, carving up opposing defenses with
his penetration and passing skills and posting a whopping (and
league-leading) assist ratio of 43.6 (percent of his possessions that end in
assists).
The question now is how somebody who breaks down defenses off the dribble so
much can manage to have just nine free-throw attempts all season.
5. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland
The Blazers certainly have to be excited about Aldridge's potential.
He's a deadly mid-range jump shooter and might have the highest release point
the league has seen since Robert Parish retired. Right now that makes him a
solid rotation player, but if he's going to be a real force he'll have to add
muscle, improve his post game and get pushed around less on defense.
Aldridge's playing time should increase sharply in a week once the Jamaal
Magloire Trade Showcase Extravaganza comes to an end, and with added
experience could come improvement.
4. Craig Smith, Minnesota
The fact he was left off the rookie team so they could add Adam Morrison --
perhaps the single most ineffective rookie in the league so far -- speaks
volumes about the pharmaceutical consumption habits of the voters. Or at the
very least, it speaks to the power of the almighty points-per-game stat.
Per-minute, Smith scores just as much, grabs three times as many rebounds,
shoots nearly 20 percentage points higher, and gets to the line more. His PER
of 16.36 is more than double that of The 'Stache (7.98).
But since the Bobcats insist on playing Morrison his 32 minutes a game
regardless of how badly he plays, he's in Vegas and Smith isn't.
3. Jorge Garbajosa, Toronto
Garbajosa's 12.61 PER doesn't exactly jump off the page, and at age 29 it's
hard to get too geeked up about his long-term potential.
But I've put him this high because he's succeeded in the one area where
rookies usually fail: defense.
Toronto is one of the most improved defensive teams in basketball, going from
29th in defensive efficiency last season to a respectable 18th this year,
which is a big reason they're surprisingly atop the Atlantic. In turn,
Garbajosa's defensive smarts and physical, scrappy style has been a huge
factor in the Raptors' improvement.
The other guys on the list will probably lap him in overall impact during the
next year or two, but in terms of immediate impact he's been huge.
2. Paul Millsap, Utah
While the first round of the draft was disappointing, the second round seems
to have produced a few keepers.
Millsap, Smith and Johnson all fit the stereotype of undersized power
forwards, a prototype that has rarely enjoyed NBA success. But as I wrote
earlier in the year, NBA teams may need to reevaluate that model given the
shift to smaller lineups and more wide-open play.
Millsap's instincts for the ball -- be it blocks, rebounds or steals -- are
phenomenal, and while he's not a go-to guy offensively, he has a knack for
double and triple-pumping his way around bigger defenders to finish.
All of which makes it a bigger mystery that Millsap isn't starting while
Carlos Boozer is out of the lineup.
1. Brandon Roy, Portland
Before the season, the running line was that Roy would win the ROY award. So
far, so good.
Despite a 20-game injury absence, Roy has clearly been the cream of this
year's rookie crop. He's the only one who has anything resembling go-to guy
status on his team (though Zach Randolph does the heavy lifting, Roy often
gets the call in late-game situations), he has the top PER among all rookies
and, helpfully, he's well out in front in the almighty points per game
category.
In a generally disappointing rookie crop, he's really the only first rounder
to live up to the hype so far, and at this point it would be a shocking upset
if he failed to take home his namesake award. Throw in Aldridge and
Rodriguez, and Portland's first round in 2006 is looking like a home run.
Best of the rest
Three point guards -- Boston's Rajon Rondo, New Jersey's Marcus Williams and
the Lakers' Jordan Farmar -- just missed the cut, and all have bright
futures.
The latter two were invited to the rookie game in lieu of the sparingly used
Rodriguez and Johnson, but I actually think Rondo may have been the best of
the three in the first half. He got off to a very slow start and then the
Celtics' season careened off a cliff, but he's quietly put together a series
of very solid games in January and taken over the backup point guard job from
Sebastian Telfair.
Apologies also go out to Ronnie Brewer of Utah, Hassan Adams of New Jersey
and technical rookie Kelenna Azubuike of Golden State. Each has been
effective in limited minutes but has not had enough burn for me to be
comfortable with the statistical sample size.
http://www.basketballforum.com/showthread.php?t=340772
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#35 Kevin Durant |G-F
College Team:Texas
Height: 6-10
Weight: 204 lbs.
SEASON MIN PTS REB AST TO STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P%
2006-2007 34.3 25.1 11.4 1.6 2.9 1.6 1.9 2.0 .485 .805 .385
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