[分享] Griffin 可能成為青少年大聯盟球員

看板Baseball (棒球)作者Yjizz (Zz菊池大谷西舘zZ)時間2小時前 (2026/03/01 09:58)推噓3(3推 0噓 0→)

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Griffin could be a teenage big leaguer. Here's how history says that might go February 28th, 2026 Travis Sawchik https://www.mlb.com/news/konnor-griffin-teenage-debut-possibilities?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage https://shorturl.at/06p8I 30秒(春訓炸裂2nd)、總教練Don Kelly, Konnor Griffin 訪談1分25秒(關於未來), milb highlight & 口白介紹1分05秒、shorts一則 Griffin 可能成為青少年(siàu-liân)大聯盟選手，歷史數據告訴我們結果會如何 When MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin launched not one, but two home runs over the replica Green Monster and out of JetBlue Park on Tuesday, social media servers seemed at risk of overheating. 當 MLB Pipeline 排名第 1 的新秀 Konnor Griffin 在週二擊出不止一發，而是兩發飛越仿造「綠色怪物」牆並飛出 JetBlue Park 的全壘打時，社群媒體的伺服器似乎快要當機了。 Enthusiasm was already elevated for the 19-year-old Pirates shortstop, and performances like that will continue to push the hype machine into overdrive. If there are more such feats this spring, it will become increasingly difficult to keep Griffin off the Opening Day roster if making a merit-based decision. 人們對這位 19 歲的海盜隊游擊手早已展現極高期望，而這樣的表現將持續讓炒作機器進入超速運轉狀態。如果今年春訓還有更多這類壯舉，那麼在以實力為導向的決策下，要將 Griffin 排除在開幕戰名單之外，將變得越來越難。 The ninth overall pick from the 2024 Draft is expected to debut at some point during the 2026 season, but it could happen before his 20th birthday arrives on April 24. How many 19-year-olds have made the jump in recent years? What can reasonable expectations be for the most precocious talents, especially when the gap between the Majors and Minors is as large as it's ever been? Let ’s explore. 這位 2024 年選秀會的第九順位新秀，預計會在 2026 年賽季的某個時間點初登場，但這很可能就在他 4 月 24 日滿 20 歲生日之前。近年來有多少 19 歲球員能完成這種跳躍？對於這些最早熟的天才，我們該抱持怎樣的合理預期？尤其是在大聯盟與小聯盟之間的實力差距達到史上最大的現在。讓我們來探索一下。 Over the past 40 years, there have been 18 position players to debut as teenagers. Reaching the pinnacle of baseball at an age when many are freshmen in college is an incredible feat. The list is loaded with four Hall of Famers (Ken Griffey Jr., Adrian Beltré, Iván Rodríguez, Andruw Jones), a 696-homer shortstop in Alex Rodriguez and a number of MVP winners, including Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. 在過去 40 年中，共有 18 位野手以青少年身份初登場。在許多同齡人還只是大學新鮮人的年紀，就達到棒球界的巔峰是一項驚人的成就。這份名單中包含了四位名人堂成員（Ken Griffey Jr.、Adrian Beltré、Iván Rodríguez、Andruw Jones）、擊出 696 支全壘打的游擊手 Alex Rodriguez，以及多位 MVP 得主，包括 Bryce Harper 和 Mike Trout。 A teenage debut is often indicative of a special career trajectory. But there's just one catch: Not everyone from this incredible list was a star immediately. In fact, the majority are not. 青少年時期的初登場通常預告著一段特別的職業生涯軌跡。但這值得注意的是：這份驚人名單中的成員並非每個人都能立即成為球星。事實上，大多數人都無法兌現。 The average debut year OPS+ of these rare teenagers is 75, meaning they are about 25% below MLB-average offensive performance when adjusting for ballpark and run-scoring environments. 這些罕見的青少年新秀在初登場年份的平均 OPS+ 為 75，這意味著在考量球場及得分環境調整後，他們的進攻表現比大聯盟平均水準低了約 25%。 The performance improved when we filtered those teenage debuts to a group that received at least 200 plate appearances, suggesting they at least treaded water at the Major League level. Those eight players combined for a 98 OPS+, or just about league-average performance. This suggests initial expectations likely ought to be tempered for Griffin. 當我們將範圍縮小到這些青少年初登場中，獲得至少 200 個打席的群體時，表現有所提升，顯示他們至少在大聯盟層級站穩了腳跟。這 8 位球員合計交出了 98 的 OPS+，幾乎接近聯盟平均水準。這表明對 Griffin 的最初預期可能應該有所保留。 So, curb our collective enthusiasm, right? Well, perhaps not. 所以，我們應該澆熄大眾的熱情嗎？嗯，或許不必。 If we refine our search down to teenagers who reached 400 plate appearances in their first full season since 1986, that's where things become interesting. Griffin could reach that threshold if he debuts early and shows he belongs at the highest level. 如果我們進一步篩選自 1986 年以來，在第一個完整賽季中達到 400 個打席的青少年球員，事情就變得有趣了。如果 Griffin 儘早初登場並證明自己屬於最高殿堂，他也能達到這個門檻。 It's a short, elite list: Harper, Griffey, Juan Soto and Edgar Renteria. That includes a Hall of Famer (Griffey), a two-time MVP (Harper), a six-time Silver Slugger through age 26 (Soto) and a five-time All-Star and World Series hero (Renteria). 這是一份精簡又精銳的名單：Bryce Harper、Ken Griffey Jr.、Juan Soto 和 Edgar Renteria。其中包括一位名人堂球員（Ken Griffey Jr.）、兩屆 MVP（Bryce Harper）、 26 歲前就拿過六次銀棒獎的球員（Juan Soto），以及五次入選全明星的季後賽英雄（Edgar Renteria）。 They averaged a 118 OPS+ in their teenage debut seasons. Harper hit 22 homers with a .270/.340/.477 slash line. Soto posted a .406 OBP. Griffey slashed .264/.329/.420 with 16 homers and 16 steals. 他們在青少年初登場賽季的平均 OPS+ 為 118。 Harper 擊出 22 支全壘打，打擊三圍為 .270/.340/.477；Juan Soto 繳出了 .406 的上壘率（OBP）；Ken Griffey Jr. 的打擊三圍則是 .264/.329/.420，並有 16 支全壘打與 16 次盜壘。 If Griffin is a true superstar talent, perhaps those ought to be his select comps. Harper and Griffey were No. 1 overall picks in the Draft and viewed as generational prospects. Soto was an uber prospect. Many are pinning similar lofty projections on Griffin. 如果 Griffin 是真正的超級巨星天才，也許這些球員才是他該被對比的對象。Bryce Harper 和 Ken Griffey Jr. 當年都是選秀狀元，被視為百年一遇的新秀；Juan Soto 也是頂級球員。許多人正將同樣崇高的評價投射在 Griffin 身上。 If we assume Griffin is more like those names as a No. 1 prospect -- he's certainly an elite athlete, having even featured on "You Got Mossed" as a ninth grader -- then he could potentially be an impact player right now. And he does not even have to be a star to help the Pirates in his first season. If he's a league-average bat at shortstop, he would be a major impact player for the club -- as it would be for most clubs in the league. 如果我們假設身為排名第 1 新秀的 Konnor Griffin 更接近上述這些名字──他無疑是一位菁英運動員，甚至在九年級時就曾在《You Got Mossed》節目中亮相──那麼他現在就有潛力成為一名具影響力的球員。而且他甚至不需要成為超級巨星，就能在他第一個賽季幫助海盜隊。如果他在游擊手位置上能提供聯盟平均水準的打擊，對球隊來說就將是一名極具影響力的球員──對聯盟中大多數球隊來說也是如此。 While the Pirates have upgraded their lineup, they produced just one above-average qualified hitter last season. Griffin might be one of their very best hitters right now. 雖然海盜隊已經升級了他們的打線，但去年他們全隊僅產出一名符合規定打席且表現優於平均的打者。 Griffin 現在可能就已經是他們陣中最好的打者之一。 But what gets really exciting is Year 2, and perhaps getting to Year 2 as quickly as possible. For players debuting as teenagers since 1986, and who played in the following year, they increased their OPS+ on average of 18 points -- or nearly a 20% improvement. 但真正令人興奮的是第二年，以及如何盡快進入第二年。自 1986 年以來，對於那些在青少年時期初登場並在隔年繼續參賽的球員，他們的 OPS+ 平均提升了 18 點──這幾乎是 20% 的進步。 (Note: The analysis of sophomore seasons did not include B.J. Upton and Wilson Betemit, who did not play in the Majors as 20-year-olds after debuting as 19-year-olds. Nor does it include Karim Garcia, who logged one plate appearance in the following campaign.) （註：這項關於二年級賽季的分析不包括 B.J. Upton 和 Wilson Betemit，他們在 19 歲初登場後，20 歲時並未在大聯盟打球；也不包括 Karim Garcia，他在隨後的賽季中僅記錄了一次打席。） Those who reached at least 200 plate appearances in their second season averaged a 106 OPS+, mostly as 20-year-olds. 那些在第二個賽季達到至少 200 個打席的球員，平均 OPS+ 為106，且當時大多僅 20 歲。 Harper (133 OPS+), Soto (142 OPS+) and Griffey (136 OPS+) did much better than that and posted some of the best 20-year-old seasons on record. After struggling as a 19-year-old, Mike Trout went on to have the best season ever in terms of WAR (10.2) by a 20-year-old in 2012, elevating to a superstar level of play he would sustain for the remainder of the decade. Harper（OPS+ 133）、 Soto（OPS+ 142）和 Griffey （OPS+ 136）的表現遠優於此，並創下了歷史上最頂尖的 20 歲賽季紀錄。在經歷了掙扎的 19 歲賽季後，Mike Trout 在 2012 年以 20 歲之齡創下了史上最高的 WAR（10.2）紀錄，提升到了他在該年代剩餘時間裡持續保持的超級巨星水準。 It raises the question of whether rare talents should spend more time in the Minors to refine their abilities and reduce the chance of severe struggles. Or, should they be thrown in the deep end that is facing Major League pitching and work through any adjustment period while in the bigs. 這引出了一個問題：稀世天才是否應該在小聯盟待更長時間以磨練能力，並降低遭遇嚴重挫折的機率？或者，他們應該直接被扔進面對大聯盟投手，在大聯盟期間度過任何適應期？ If Griffin debuted on Opening Day, he wouldn't quite arrive as quickly as Robin Yount, who made it up after only 64 Minor League games, after being drafted out of high school by the Brewers as a teenager in 1973. He made the Opening Day roster in 1974 to begin a Hall of Famer career. Griffin's arrival wouldn't be that fast, but it would be a blur of a journey to the Major League level. 如果 Griffin 在開幕戰初登場，他的晉升速度還不及 Robin Yount。後者在 1973 年以青少年身份被釀酒人從高中選中後，僅打了 64 場小聯盟比賽就升上去了。他在 1974 年進入開幕戰名單，開啟了名人堂生涯。Konnor Griffin 的到來不會那麼快，但對於通往大聯盟層級的旅程來說，這也將是一段極速的航程。 Griffin has totaled only 563 plate appearances as a professional, including none in Triple-A and just 98 in Double-A. An Opening Day assignment seems aggressive. But in speaking to one assistant general manager, his preference for an elite prospect is the latter path, the more aggressive approach. Griffin 作為職業球員總共只有 563 個打席，其中在 3A 為零，在 2A 也僅有 98 個。排入開幕戰名單似乎過於激進。但在與一位副總經理（Assistant General Manager）交談時，他對於頂級新秀的偏好是後者，也就是更激進的做法。 "They are best developed when they see the most challenging pitching they can," the assistant GM said. "They tell us when it’s time to go up. Defense and [fundamentals] can be learned at any level. I don’t think it is prudent to keep them in the Minors unchallenged. I think that is not developing a guy." 「當他們面對最具挑戰性的投手時，開發效果最好，」這位副總經理（Assistant GM）表示。「他們會告訴我們什麼時候該升上去。防守和 [基本功] 在任何層級都可以學習。我不認為讓他們留在沒有挑戰的小聯盟是明智的，我認為那不是在培養球員。」 After all, how can one truly get better against Major League pitching if they are not facing Major League pitching? All top prospects are eventually going to have to do that, so why not start the process? 畢竟，如果不面對大聯盟投手，一個人要如何真正針對大聯盟投球表現得更好呢？所有頂級新秀最終都必須面對這一點，那麼為什麼不現在就開始呢？ Perhaps it also accelerates their development. Harper's best season came when he was 22, in 2015, when he won the NL MVP after bashing a career-high 42 homers. In his third season, Griffey was a 7-WAR player. Soto produced a career-best 202 OPS+ in his third year, albeit the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Those three were full-fledged superstars by 22, and perhaps that doesn't happen without accelerating timetables and development at the big league level. 或許這也能加速他們的成長。 Harper 表現最好的一個賽季是在他 22 歲時（ 2015 年），當時他轟出職業生涯最高的 42 支全壘打，並贏得了國聯 MVP。Ken Griffey Jr. 在第三個賽季，他已是一名 WAR 值達到 7 的球員。Juan Soto 在他的第三年交出了生涯最佳的 202 OPS+，儘管那是受疫情縮短的 2020 年賽季。這三個人在 22 歲時都已是名副其實的超級巨星，而如果不加速在大聯盟層級的時間表與開發，這或許就不會發生。 But there are differing viewpoints. 但目前仍存在不同的觀點。 "It feels like the [Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI)] stuff has changed the attitude from, 'Keep him down for a bit and make sure they never go back,' to 'Let’s see if he can hang, and if not, we send him down,'" said another assistant GM. "I think the hype for these young guys like [Jackson] Holliday and [Anthony] Volpe can sometimes be a bit much and people expect too much at a young age. 「感覺像是 [新秀推廣獎勵機制 (PPI)] 改變了態度，從『先讓他待在下面一陣子，確保他們上來後永遠不會再下去』，轉變成『讓我們先看看他能不能撐住，如果不行，我們再把他送下去』，」另一位副總經理（Assistant GM）表示。「我認為對於像 Jackson Holliday 和 Anthony Volpe 這些年輕球員的炒作有時有點過頭了，人們對這麼小的年紀期望太高。」 "I’d probably lean toward a bit more Minor League time to expose any flaws." 「我可能會傾向於讓他們在小聯盟多待一段時間，以便發現任何缺點。」 There's another development to consider, too. Baseball America's J.J. Cooper recently documented that players who reach the Majors are spending less time in the Minors first. That's in part because there's a heavier college lean in Drafts and in part because affiliate counts have been reduced, but it’s also tied to development advancements. 還有另一個發展趨勢值得考量。Baseball America 的 J.J. Cooper 最近報導，登上大聯盟的球員在小聯盟待的時間越來越短。這部分是因為選秀中更偏向大學球員，部分是因為附屬球隊數量的縮減，但也與開發技術的進步有關。 The game has changed a lot in recent years. One can argue it's changed more in the last decade than it had in the previous 50 years preceding it due to new technology, data and training practices that have accelerated player development, not just at the professional level but also in the amateur game. For instance, advanced pitching machines and simulators, in addition to new training regimens -- like bat speed and bat-path training -- can accelerate development. 棒球運動在近年來發生了巨大變化。有人會爭論，由於新技術、數據和訓練實踐加速了球員開發，過去十年的變化比之前的 50 年還要多，這不僅發生在職業層級，也發生在業餘比賽中。例如，先進的發球機和模擬器，再加上新的訓練方案──如揮棒速度和揮棒軌跡訓練──都能加速球員成長。 Regardless of whether a prospect is pushed, every player who arrives to the Majors will face a sink-or-swing moment to see if they can stick. 無論一位新秀是否被提早捧出場，每一位抵達大聯盟的球員都會面臨不進則退的時刻，看看他們是否能站穩腳跟。 Griffin's arrival appears like it will come sooner rather than later. And perhaps the sooner he debuts, the more that will accelerate him toward a star-level production. Griffin 的到來似乎遲早會發生，而且越早初登場，或許就越能加速他邁向球星級產出的過程。 At some point, Paul Skenes could be opening a playoff series for the Pirates, and Griffin could be hitting near the top of the lineup. The vibes have rarely been this strong this time of year in Bradenton, Fla. 在未來的某個時刻，Paul Skenes 可能正在為海盜隊在季後賽系列賽中擔任先發，而 Griffin 則在打線前段打擊。在佛羅里達州的 Bradenton，每逢這時節的氛圍鮮少如此強烈。 Columnist Travis Sawchik has covered MLB since 2013 with a focus on data-based analysis and enterprise reporting. ※ ※ ※ On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+) https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/on-base-plus-slugging-plus ※ ※ ※ Wins Above Replacement (WAR) https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/wins-above-replacement ※ ※ ※ That time MLB's No. 1 prospect got a shoutout from Randy Moss -- in ninth grade! https://www.mlb.com/pirates/news/konnor-griffin-was-featured-on-you-got-mossed Griffin中學時期也是多棲球員，曾經參加 ESPN節目 "You Got Mossed" ※ ※ ※ Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) FAQ https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-promotion-incentive-faq PPI (Prospect Promotion Incentive) 是大聯盟在 2022 年勞資協議（CBA）中引入的一項新制度，主要目的是打擊「操控時間」的現象，並鼓勵球隊讓最強的頂級新秀儘早登上大聯盟。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 49.217.177.149 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1772330312.A.588.html ※ Yjizz:轉錄至看板 MLB 03/01 09:58