[分享] MLB - 教士是否會交易 Mason Miller？

看板Baseball (棒球)作者Yjizz (Zz菊池大谷西舘zZ)時間1小時前 (2026/07/10 08:27)推噓10(10推 0噓 13→)

留言23則, 14人參與討論串1/1

Will the Padres trade Mason Miller? Rival executives weigh in 教士是否會交易 Mason Miller？其他球隊高層提出看法。 uly 9th, 2026 Mark Feinsand https://www.mlb.com/news/mason-miller-padres-trade-rumors-2026-trade-deadline A.J. Preller shocked the baseball world last summer, trading one of the game’ s best prospects as part of a package for All-Star closer Mason Miller. 去年夏天，棒球事務總裁（President of Baseball Operations）A.J. Preller 震驚整個棒球界，他將聯盟頂尖新秀之一納入交易包裹，換來明星終結者 Mason Miller。 Could the Padres’ president of baseball operations pull another stunner in the coming weeks by flipping Miller less than 12 months after acquiring him? 教士的棒球事務總裁（President of Baseball Operations） A.J. Preller，是否會在未來幾週再次投下震撼彈，在交易來 Mason Miller 不到 12 個月後，就將他再次送走？ “As far as A.J. goes, the only thing I know is I don’t know,” said an American League executive. 一位美國聯盟高層表示：「只要事情牽涉到 A.J.，我唯一確定的，就是我不知道。」 The Padres are 3-9 since June 27, an alarming fall for a club that was 11 games over .500, held the top National League Wild Card spot and set only a half-game behind the Dodgers in the NL West on May 23. 教士自 6 月 27 日以來僅打出 3 勝 9 敗，對這支球隊而言可說是令人憂心的崩盤。5 月 23 日時，他們不僅勝率高於五成 11 場，穩居國家聯盟外卡第一名，在國聯西區也僅落後道奇半場勝差。 After Wednesday's win, the Padres are 46-46, the sixth-worst record in the NL. They sit 14 games behind the Dodgers and 4 1/2 games behind the Marlins for the final NL Wild Card spot, and FanGraphs listed San Diego’s postseason odds at 12.1%. 在週三贏球後，教士戰績來到 46 勝 46 敗，仍是國家聯盟第六差戰績。目前他們落後道奇 14 場，距離最後一席國聯外卡資格也落後馬林魚 4.5 場。根據 FanGraphs 預測，聖地牙哥闖進季後賽的機率僅 12.1%。 The price for Miller was steep, with shortstop Leo De Vries -- the No. 3 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list at the time (now No. 2) -- headlining the four-player package that went to the Athletics for Miller and left-hander J.P. Sears. With the Padres headed in the wrong direction this season, would Preller dangle his All-Star closer out there to see what type of value he could get back? 教士當初為了得到 Mason Miller 所付出的代價相當高昂。交易包裹以游擊手 Leo De Vries 為主，他當時是 MLB Pipeline 百大新秀排名第 3（目前已升至第 2），再加上另外三名球員，一起送往運動家，換回 Mason Miller 及左投 J.P. Sears。如今教士本季戰況急轉直下，Preller 是否會把這位明星終結者重新放上市場，測試看看究竟能換回多少價值？ “They have to consider it if they keep playing like this,” an NL executive said. “They won’t get De Vries type value back for him, but they’ll still do well if they trade him.” 一位國家聯盟高層表示：「如果他們繼續打成這樣，就必須認真考慮這件事。」「他們不可能再換回像 Leo De Vries 那種等級的價值，但若真的交易 Miller，仍然可以得到相當不錯的回報。」 “I think they would really have to slide in order to move him,” another NL exec said. “I’m not sure they would be able to recoup the prospect level they acquired him for last Deadline, since there are few teams that are as aggressive as Preller at the Deadline.” 另一位國家聯盟高層則表示：「我認為除非他們真的一路崩盤，否則才會考慮交易他。」「我也不確定他們是否能換回去年交易截止日前，為了得到 Miller 所付出的那種新秀等級。因為像 Preller 一樣，在交易截止日如此積極、大膽出手的球隊，其實非常少。」 An AL executive agreed with that last point, noting that “there’s not another A.J. out there willing to give up that much value.” Still, the executive believes Miller “should still command a serious return” if the Padres opt to move him. 一位美國聯盟高層也認同上述看法。他表示：「沒有第二個 A.J. 願意付出那麼高的代價。」不過他仍認為，如果教士最終決定交易 Mason Miller，他依舊能換回極具份量的交易回報。 “I would think he would be capable of two Top 100 [players] or a Top 100 and another two players that are organizational Top 10s or so,” an NL executive said. “But I’m not sure they would feel it would be worth it.” 另一位國家聯盟高層表示：「我認為他的行情，大概可以換到兩位百大新秀，或是一位百大新秀，再加上兩位各球團農場排名前十左右的新秀。」「只是我不確定教士是否會認為，這樣的回報值得把他交易出去。」 Miller and the Padres agreed to a $4 million salary this season, avoiding arbitration in the reliever’s first year of eligibility. As a Super Two, Miller will be arbitration-eligible for three more years, the type of club control that increases a player’s trade value. Mason Miller 本季與教士達成 400 萬美元合約，避免進入薪資仲裁，這也是他首次具備薪資仲裁資格的球季。由於屬於超級二年級資格球員，Miller 未來還有 3 年薪資仲裁資格，這代表球隊仍握有較長時間的控制權，而這種合約狀態也會提升他的交易價值。 The best comparison to Miller in terms of his salary trend is Josh Hader, who was also a Super Two player, receiving four years of arbitration eligibility. Hader earned $4.1 million, $6.675 million, $11 million and $14.1 million in his four arbitration seasons, giving the Padres a general idea of what it will cost to keep Miller on a year-by-year basis. 若以薪資成長趨勢來看，Mason Miller 最接近的案例就是 Josh Hader。Hader 同樣屬於超級二年級球員，因此擁有 4 年薪資仲裁資格。他四個仲裁球季的薪資依序為 410 萬美元、667.5 萬美元、1,100 萬美元以及 1,410 萬美元。這也讓教士大致可以估算，未來若持續留下 Miller，每年的薪資成本將可能如何成長。 The Padres already have some major financial commitments locked in for the next few years; Xander Bogaerts (owed $175 million from 2027-33), Manny Machado ($245 million from 2027-33), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($266 million from 2027-34), Jake Cronenworth ($48 million from 2027-30), Jackson Merrill ($124 million from 2027-34) and Michael King ($28 million player option for 2027, $30 million player option for 2028) are all signed to deals through at least 2028. With a new ownership group in place, it’s unclear whether Preller will be asked to move some salary, which could have a direct impact on his approach at the Deadline and next offseason. 教士未來幾年早已有不少龐大的薪資承諾，包括： Xander Bogaerts：2027 至 2033 年仍有 1.75 億美元合約。 Manny Machado：2027 至 2033 年 2.45 億美元。 Fernando Tatis Jr.：2027 至 2034 年 2.66 億美元。 Jake Cronenworth：2027 至 2030 年 4,800 萬美元。 Jackson Merrill：2027 至 2034 年 1.24 億美元。 Michael King：2027 年 2,800 萬美元球員選擇權、2028 年 3,000 萬美元球員選擇權。上述球員的合約至少都延續至 2028 年。隨著新的經營團隊接手，外界仍不清楚 Preller 是否會被要求削減部分薪資支出，而這將直接影響他在交易截止日以及下一個休賽季的操作策略。 “I haven’t heard whispers [about Miller being available], but I can definitely see [Preller] moving him to restock, then reloading this offseason, ” an AL executive said. “He could get a decent haul; two top 100s and some mid-levels.” 一位美國聯盟高層表示：「我還沒聽到任何關於 Miller 已經被擺上交易市場的風聲，但我完全可以想像 Preller 會交易他，藉此補充農場戰力，然後等到今年休賽季再重新補強大聯盟陣容。」「他應該可以換回相當不錯的籌碼，例如兩名百大新秀，再加上幾位中階等級的新秀。」 One executive wondered whether Preller could utilize Miller to fill other holes on the big league roster -- the Padres are in need of a bat as well as rotation help -- or if San Diego could attach one of its other huge contracts (Bogaerts?) to Miller to clear out payroll space moving forward. 另一位高層則提出不同的可能性。他認為，Preller 或許可以利用交易 Mason Miller，直接補強大聯盟陣容的其他缺口──目前教士不僅需要一名打者，也需要先發輪值戰力。此外，他也猜測聖地牙哥是否可能把 Miller 與隊中另一張大型合約（例如 Xander Bogaerts）一起打包交易，以騰出未來更多薪資空間。 “The beginning of the end may have arrived for that roster,” an AL executive said. “The Bogaerts contract is a wreck to take on, especially since we don’t know the payroll rules for next year [under the next collective bargaining agreement].” 一位美國聯盟高層表示：「這套陣容或許已經走到開始瓦解的階段了。」他接著說：「Bogaerts 那份合約幾乎沒有人願意接手，尤其是在我們還不知道下一份團體協約（Collective Bargaining Agreement，CBA）對薪資制度將如何規範的情況下，更是如此。」 Trading for a big name and moving him the following year may seem unorthodox, but Preller has done this dance before. He traded six players (including James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and C.J. Abrams) to the Nationals for Juan Soto (and Josh Bell) in August 2022, when Soto was more than two years away from free agency. Sixteen months later, the Padres traded Soto -- then entering his walk year -- and Trent Grisham to the Yankees for a five-player package headlined by King. 交易來一位超級球星，隔年又立刻將他送走，這樣的操作看似不合常理，但 Preller 過去確實曾經這麼做過。2022 年 8 月，當 Juan Soto 距離取得自由球員資格還有兩年多時， Preller 就曾送出 James Wood、MacKenzie Gore、C.J. Abrams 等 6 名球員，向國民交易來 Juan Soto 與 Josh Bell。然而僅僅 16 個月後，教士又趁 Soto 即將進入合約年時，將他與 Trent Grisham 一起交易到 Yankees，換回以 Michael King 為首的 5 人交易包裹。 “I had that in the back of my mind, but he did it in the offseason,” an NL executive said of the Soto comparison. “I can’t recall him selling [at the Trade Deadline] when the team was close.” 談到 Juan Soto 的案例，一位國家聯盟高層表示：「我確實有想到這個例子，不過那筆交易是在休賽季完成的。」他接著說：「我不記得當球隊還保有競爭力時，Preller 曾在交易截止日選擇出售主力、扮演賣家的角色。」 The consensus among the dozen or so executives we spoke with was that Preller is unlikely to trade Miller -- or be a seller at all -- unless the Padres’ situation gets far worse over the next three weeks. 綜合受訪的十多位球隊高層看法，多數人的共識是：除非教士在未來三週戰況持續惡化，否則 Preller 不太可能交易 Mason Miller，甚至也不太可能在今年交易截止日前成為賣家。 “I don’t think he will unless they really fall out of it,” an AL executive said. “It feels like he is going to do everything he can to stay in it as opposed to trying to reset.” 一位美國聯盟高層表示：「除非教士真的完全退出競爭行列，否則我不認為他會這麼做。」他接著說：「我感覺 Preller 會想盡一切辦法讓球隊繼續保有競爭力，而不是現在就開始重建。」 “I don’t know if A.J. is ready to wave the white flag,” another AL exec said. “[He has] so much invested in this team, and the future doesn’t look great.” 另一位美國聯盟高層表示：「我不知道 A.J. 是否已經準備好舉白旗認輸。」他認為：「他在這支球隊投入了太多心力與資源，而目前來看，球隊的未來前景也稱不上樂觀。」 Even if Preller decides to see what kind of return he could get for Miller, a huge fire sale seems like a long shot. 即使 Preller 最後決定評估交易 Mason Miller 能夠換回多少價值，教士展開大規模「清倉拍賣」的可能性，仍然相當低。 “They probably have lines on everyone and would only jump in something if it opened up an avenue to improve the team in another way,” an NL executive said. “I don’t think there’s any universe they all-in sell, but you never know what individual move might or might not happen.” 一位國家聯盟高層表示：「他們大概會對每一位球員的交易可能性都保持開放態度，但只有在某筆交易能夠替球隊開啟另一種補強途徑時，他們才會真正出手。」他接著說：「我不認為有任何情況下，他們會徹底變成全面出售主力的賣家。不過，個別球員是否會被交易，誰也無法預料。」 “A.J. follows the Jimmy V mantra,” an AL exec said. “Don’t give up; don ’t ever give up.” 一位美國聯盟高層表示：「A.J. 一直奉行 Jimmy V 的人生信念。」也就是：「不要放棄；永遠不要放棄。」（Jimmy V 為已故美國大學籃球名教練 Jimmy Valvano，這句 "Don't give up; don't ever give up." 是他最廣為流傳的名言。） -- Mark Feinsand, a senior national reporter, originally joined MLB.com as a reporter in 2001. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 49.215.98.79 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1783643253.A.D81.html ※ 編輯: Yjizz (49.215.98.79 臺灣), 07/10/2026 08:33:23

推

polanco

07/10 08:33, 1小時前 , 1^F

07/10 08:33, 1^F

→

cyclohexane

07/10 08:37, 1小時前 , 2^F

07/10 08:37, 2^F

推

cool8418

07/10 08:44, 1小時前 , 3^F

07/10 08:44, 3^F