[分享] Skenes 怎麼了？剖析他近期低潮原因

看板Baseball (棒球)作者Yjizz (Zz菊池大谷西舘zZM)時間2小時前 (2026/08/06 12:28)推噓4(4推 0噓 4→)

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What's 'wrong' with Skenes? Let's dissect his recent slump Skenes 到底「怎麼了」？一起剖析他近期低潮的原因。 August 5th, 2026 Travis Sawchik https://www.mlb.com/news/paul-skenes-2026-metrics-comparison-deep-dive The question seemed unthinkable a year ago: What's wrong with Paul Skenes? 一年前，這個問題幾乎令人難以想像：Paul Skenes 到底怎麼了？ After posting sub-2.00 ERAs in each of his first two seasons -- the first qualified pitcher age 23 or younger to accomplish that since Dwight Gooden in 1984-85 -- Skenes enters Wednesday's start against the Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN) with an ERA approaching 4.00. Skenes 生涯前兩個球季的防禦率都低於 2.00，成為自 Dwight Gooden 在 1984、1985 年球季以來，第一位在 23 歲（含）以下、且符合投球局數規定的投手達成此壯舉。然而，在本週三對上釀酒人的先發（美東時間晚上 7:40，ESPN 直播）之前，他本季的防禦率已逼近 4.00。 The issue is not tied to one glaring flaw. It's several small declines that reinforce one another. A little less velocity. A little less movement. Slightly worse command. More balls in the air. A weaker defense behind him. Individually, none are alarming. Together, they've transformed the best pitcher in the NL last season into merely a very good one. 問題並非出在某一項明顯的缺陷，而是許多細微的退步彼此交互影響。球速稍微下降、球路位移減少、控球略微變差、讓更多打者擊出高飛球，以及身後守備品質下滑。若單獨來看，沒有任何一項值得大驚小怪；但綜合起來，卻讓去年國家聯盟最具宰制力的投手，變成僅僅是一位「非常優秀」的投手。 It all leads to another question: Can the elite version of Skenes return? Let ’s diagnose what’s gone wrong and look at whether the 2024-25 version of Skenes could return down the stretch. 這也引出了另一個問題：那個頂尖版本的 Skenes 還能回來嗎？接下來就讓我們分析他究竟出了什麼問題，並探討 2024、2025 年那個無解的 Skenes，是否有機會在球季最後衝刺階段（down the stretch）重現。 mWhere did the velo go? 球速到底跑去哪了？ The most obvious change is that Skenes is not throwing as hard as he did his first two seasons, when his fastball averaged a blistering 98.8 mph as a rookie in 2025, and 98.2 mph last season. His velocity is down to an average of 96.9 mph this season, and it's been in decline throughout the season. 最明顯的改變，就是 Skenes 已經不像前兩個球季那樣火力十足。2025 年菜鳥球季，他的四縫線速球平均球速高達 98.8 英里；去年則是 98.2 英里。本季平均球速已下降至 96.9 英里，而且整個球季都呈現持續下滑的趨勢。 "I think it's funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t have a good outing,” said Skenes during the All-Star break in Philadelphia. "... I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well. I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level." Skenes 在費城明星賽期間表示：「我覺得很好笑，記者只有在我投得不好時，才會問我球速的問題。」「……我不認為一定要靠球速才能投好球。我想這大概是我職業生涯第一次球速有點下降，但我完全不會因此感到壓力。我很健康，身體狀況很好，也仍然維持在很高的投球水準。」 But the decline matters. A loss of nearly 2 mph may not sound dramatic, but at the Major League level? It's enormous. MLB batters are hitting .219 against 99 mph fastballs the last two seasons, compared to .242 against 97 mph fastballs. 不過，球速下降確實有影響。少了將近 2 英里，聽起來或許不算誇張，但在美國職棒大聯盟，這樣的差距其實非常巨大。過去兩個球季，大聯盟打者面對 99 英里速球的打擊率只有 .219；但面對 97 英里速球時，打擊率則提高到 .242。 Skenes mirrors the league-wide marks: Opponents hit .209 against his fastballs last year, but .231 this season. That's still below the MLB average for hitters, but it's one thing trending in the wrong direction. Skenes 的情況也與聯盟整體趨勢相符。去年，對手面對他的速球打擊率僅 .209；本季則升至 .231。雖然這個數字仍優於大聯盟平均水準，但確實是朝著不利方向發展的另一項警訊。 Also keep in mind there were concerns about Skenes' fastball shape coming out of LSU, one of the few blemishes on his scouting profile. He possesses well-below-average vertical movement on his fastball. Less velocity can make a suspect shape more vulnerable. Moreover, with less velocity generally comes less spin -- his fastball spin rates are down by about 70 rpm -- and that means less spin-based movement. 此外，也別忘了 Skenes 當年離開路易斯安那州立大學（Louisiana State University， LSU）投入選秀時，球探報告中少數被質疑的地方，就是他的速球球路（fastball shape）。他的速球垂直位移（vertical movement）明顯低於聯盟平均水準。當球速下降時，原本就不算理想的球路形狀會變得更容易被打者掌握。除此之外，球速下降通常也代表轉速會跟著降低──他的速球轉速已下降約 70 rpm ，這也意味著依賴轉速所產生的球路位移會隨之減少。 For a pitcher who built his arsenal around overpowering hitters, velocity decline can diminish performance on all pitch types. The run values of Skenes ’ sinker and changeup have turned negative for the first time in his career. 對一位仰賴壓制性球威建立球種武器庫的投手而言，球速下降可能會影響所有球種的整體威力。Skenes 的伸卡球與變速球的 Run Value（失分價值），也首度在職業生涯變成負值。 Perhaps the most surprising metric is Stuff+, a metric that attempts to isolate the quality of a pitch independent of results. Skenes posted a 110 Stuff+ last season. This year, he's at 98. 最令人意外的數據，或許是 Stuff+。Stuff+ 是一項試圖排除比賽結果影響、純粹評估球質（pitch quality）的進階指標。Skenes 去年的 Stuff+ 為 110，本季則下降到 98。 Last year, his raw arsenal graded roughly a standard deviation above league average. This season, by that measure, it's merely average. 去年，依照這項指標評估，他的原始球威（raw arsenal）約高於聯盟平均一個標準差。但到了本季，以同樣標準來看，他的球威已經只剩下聯盟平均水準。 The velocity decline isn't necessarily permanent, though. I asked two pitcher trainers and biomechanical experts at Driveline Baseball to analyze Skenes' mechanics. 不過，球速下滑未必是永久性的。作者特地請教了 Driveline Baseball 的兩位投手訓練師暨生物力學專家（biomechanical experts），分析 Skenes 的投球機制。 Their assessments: ●"Earlier in the year, he was stepping across his body a lot and cutting himself off." ●"He has some mechanical issues in his delivery, but they seem to be getting cleaned up since the start of this season." 他們的分析如下： ●「今年球季初期，他跨步時經常踩向身體內側（stepping across his body），導致投球動作受到限制（cutting himself off）。」 ●「他的投球動作（delivery）確實存在一些機械性問題，不過從本季開始後，這些問題似乎正逐漸獲得修正。」 So perhaps a work in progress. A velocity bump would be huge for the Pirates ’ stretch run. 因此，目前看來這仍是一項持續調整中的工程。如果 Skenes 能在接下來找回一些球速，對海盜季末衝刺（stretch run）而言，將會是極大的利多。 Getting squared up 被打者掌握擊球時機 The loss of velocity and stuff is tied to another issue. It’s not just the batting average allowed but also the quality of contact. 球速與球威（stuff）的下降，也連帶引發另一項問題。受到影響的不只是被打擊率（batting average allowed），更包括被擊球品質（quality of contact）。 Skenes’ average exit velocity allowed has increased. His groundball rate has fallen from 51.1% as a rookie to 39.7% this season. More balls are being lifted, and more of them are leaving the park. He's already surrendered 13 home runs, more than in either of his first two full seasons. Skenes 本季被擊出的平均擊球初速（average exit velocity）明顯上升。他的滾地球率（groundball rate）也從菜鳥球季的 51.1%，下降至本季的 39.7%。打者擊出的飛球變多了，而其中也有更多飛出了全壘打牆。截至目前，他本季已被轟出 13 支全壘打，比生涯前兩個完整球季的任何一年都還要多。 Paul Skenes' Statcast metrics in 2024, 2025 and 2026 https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/mlb/d7ooe0z8bzyfhexh3jl4.jpg

It also means fewer double plays induced, with Skenes losing opportunities to get himself out of trouble. 這也意味著他製造雙殺打（double play）的能力下降，讓 Skenes 少了許多靠自己化解危機的機會。 ●2024: 14 double plays induced 2024 年：製造 14 次雙殺打。 ●2025: 13 double plays induced 2025 年：製造 13 次雙殺打。 ●2026: 7 double plays induced 2026 年：僅製造 7 次雙殺打。 The underlying pitch metrics tell the same story. Hitters are missing his breaking balls by less -- 4.9 inches on average last season versus 3.6 inches this year. 更深入的投球數據也說明了同樣的故事。打者揮擊他的變化球時，落空的幅度變小了── 去年平均揮空 4.9 吋，今年則只剩 3.6 吋。 Skenes has also raised his arm angle to 26 degrees this year from 23 degrees the previous two years. While still a lower slot than most pitchers, it's up a bit, and perhaps another factor. Again, a little thing. 此外，Skenes 本季的出手角度也從前兩年的 23 度提高到 26 度。雖然相較於大多數投手，他仍屬於較低的出手角度，但確實有所提高，也可能是造成表現變化的另一項因素。同樣地，這又是一個看似不起眼的小改變。 Slipping command and efficiency 控球與投球效率下滑 Another area pitchers largely control is command. And, again, it's not that Skenes is suffering from a staggering loss of command, but it, too, is going in the wrong direction. 投手最能掌控的另一項能力，就是控球（command）。同樣地，Skenes 並非突然失去控球能力，而是控球表現也正逐漸朝著不利的方向發展。 Skenes' walk rate has climbed to a still-good, but career-worst 6.3%. His 108 Command+ is excellent, but also slightly down from last season (112) and 2024 (110). Skenes' percentage of pitches located within the confines of the strike zone dipped from 51% in each of his first two seasons to 46% this year. Skenes 的保送率上升至 6.3%，雖然依舊不錯，但已是生涯最差。他的 Command+ 指數仍高達 108，屬於優秀水準，不過也低於去年的 112 與 2024 年的 110。此外，他投進好球帶內的球數比例，也從前兩個球季的 51%，下降至本季的 46%。 Given his still-strong underlying command skill, those fewer pitches in the zone speak to a pitcher less confident in his ability to miss bats and overpower in the zone. It suggests a conscious choice -- not skill loss. But more nibbling leads to less efficiency. 考量到他的控球基本能力依然十分出色，好球帶內投球比例下降，反而顯示他對於自己在好球帶內壓制打者、讓對手揮空的能力，信心已不像過去那麼充足。這看起來更像是一種刻意的策略調整（conscious choice），而不是能力退化。然而，投球越傾向於「摸邊角（nibbling）」、避免正面對決，投球效率自然就會下降。 ●2024: 133.0 innings pitched across 23 starts (5.78 innings per start) ●2025: 187.2 innings pitched across 32 starts (5.86 innings per start) ●2026: 124.2 innings pitched across 23 starts (5.42 innings per start) ● 2024 年：23 場先發投 133.0 局，平均每場 5.78 局。 ● 2025 年：32 場先發投 187.2 局，平均每場 5.86 局。 ● 2026 年：23 場先發投 124.2 局，平均每場 5.42 局。 Skenes said before last season that his goal was greater efficiency -- to be able to reach 240 innings pitched in a season. Instead, it’s going in the opposite direction. Skenes 在去年球季開始前曾表示，他的目標是提升投球效率，希望單季能投滿 240 局。然而，目前的發展卻正好朝著相反方向前進。 The defense isn't helping … and he's a bit unlucky 守備幫不上忙……運氣也不太站在他這邊 Over the offseason, the Pirates consciously sacrificed some defense in exchange for a stronger lineup. It's helped them climb into the NL Wild Card race, but it hasn't helped Skenes' performance. His expected ERA, or xERA (2.94), remains nearly a run lower than his actual ERA (3.90) suggesting the defense has amplified some of the decline. 休賽季期間，海盜有意犧牲部分守備能力，換取更具攻擊火力的打線。這項策略確實幫助球隊重新加入國家聯盟外卡競爭，但對 Skenes 的投球成績卻沒有幫助。他的預期防禦率（expected ERA，xERA）僅 2.94，比實際防禦率 3.90 低了將近 1 分，顯示守備問題進一步放大了他的成績退步。 Last year's Pirates ranked seventh in Outs Above Average (+18). This year's club ranks 22nd (-13). The club allowed a .281 BABIP last year, compared to .298 this season. More grounders are rolling through the infield. 去年海盜的 Outs Above Average（OAA，守備額外製造出局數）排名全聯盟第 7 名（+18 ）；今年則跌至第 22 名（-13）。球隊去年的 BABIP（Batting Average on Balls in Play──場內安打率）為 .281，本季則上升到 .298。換句話說，有更多滾地球穿越內野形成安打。 This is an inverse of the situation his previous two years, when his ERA in 2024 (1.96) and in 2025 (1.97) were lower than his xERA figures (2.50 in 2024) and (2.65 in 2025). 這與他前兩個球季的情況正好相反。2024 年他的防禦率為 1.96，低於 2.50 的 xERA； 2025 年防禦率 1.97，同樣低於 2.65 的 xERA。當時他的實際成績甚至比預期數據還要更好。 Skenes’ expected numbers are not that much worse than a year ago. But a step back in stuff, command and efficiency -- when combined with a porous defense -- is inflating his overall numbers. 其實，Skenes 的各項預期數據（expected metrics）與去年相比，並沒有明顯惡化。然而，球威（stuff）、控球（command）與投球效率（efficiency）都略為退步，再加上漏洞較多的守備（porous defense），最終讓他的整體成績被放大得更加難看。 https://shorturl.at/lKJ82 The good news 好消息是…… The encouraging news for Pittsburgh is Skenes hasn't suddenly become ordinary. 對匹茲堡來說，最令人振奮的是：Skenes 並沒有突然變成一位平凡的投手。 His 24% K-BB% mark is elite. He's sixth among all pitchers with 3.6 fWAR. He's simply become a little less extraordinary in several ways. 他的 K-BB%（三振率減保送率）仍高達 24%，依舊屬於頂尖等級。他也以 3.6 fWAR （FanGraphs 勝場貢獻值）排名全聯盟投手第 6。他只是許多方面都比過去稍微沒那麼超凡而已。 Baseball is unforgiving at the highest level. Lose a little velocity. Miss a few more locations. Allow a few more balls in the air behind a weaker defense. Small changes become big results. 在最高層級的棒球舞台，任何細微變化都會被無情放大。球速少一點、失投多幾球、讓更多球飛向空中，再加上身後守備較弱。每一項都只是小小的改變，但累積起來，就足以造成截然不同的結果。 The encouraging part is that none of these trends suggests a broken pitcher. Small declines often require only small adjustments. 值得樂觀的是，這些趨勢沒有任何一項顯示 Skenes 已經「壞掉了（broken pitcher）」。很多時候，這種幅度不大的退步，只需要一些細微調整，就有機會恢復原本的水準。 And for a Pirates club chasing October, nothing would matter more over the final two months -- not even their revamping of the bullpen at the Deadline -- than finding the Cy Young, sub-2.00 ERA version of Skenes. 對這支全力爭取十月季後賽的海盜而言，在最後兩個月，沒有任何事情比找回那位具備賽揚獎等級、防禦率低於 2.00 的 Skenes 更重要。即使是交易截止日重新打造牛棚的重要補強，也比不上這件事的重要性。 He's been missing lately, but he's not that far away. 那個版本的 Skenes 最近確實消失了一段時間。但他，其實並沒有離我們太遠。 --Columnist Travis Sawchik has covered MLB since 2013 with a focus on data-based analysis and enterprise reporting.-- —專欄作家（Columnist）Travis Sawchik 自 2013 年起報導美國職棒大聯盟（MLB），專長於數據分析（data-based analysis）與深度專題報導（enterprise reporting）。 ---- 今日對酒鬼先發 Skenes(L, 9-10) IP H R ER BB K HR ERA 5.0 2 3 3 4 6 0 3.96 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 49.217.49.135 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Baseball/M.1785990515.A.0D4.html