Re: [News] Not a Rookie: Shaun Marcum

看板Blue_Jays作者ACEP (蝴蝶結)時間17年前 (2008/04/08 20:16)推噓5(5推 0噓 13→)

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※ 引述《abc12812 (abc12812)》之銘言： : http://tinyurl.com/6ewl9e : by John Sickels on Apr 7, 2008 1:33 PM EDT Shaun Marcum was drafted by Blue Jays in 2003,a third round pick out of Southwest Missouri State University. He was a shortstop/closer in college, a testimony to his athleticism. Not a huge guy at 6-0, 180, he had an 88-91 fastball and a good slider. The Jays used him in relief initially and he posted a 1.32 ERA with a 47/7 K/BB in 34 innings in the New York-Penn League. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book, noting that his grade would go higher if he continued to perform well at higher levels. Marcum 是藍鳥 '03 年選秀第三輪選進來的球員。他大學時可守游擊也可當投手，足證他有運動細胞。他身材不高大，那時候有著 88-91 MPH 的速球和一顆好滑球。藍鳥一開始將他定位成中繼投手，而他也繳出 47/7 K/BB 比例的優異成績。我在 2004 年給他 C+，並說如果他在較高階的聯盟繼續表現不錯的話，評比會升高。 The Jays converted Marcum to the rotation in 2004. He went 7-3, 3.19 with an 83/16 K/BB in 79 innings in the Sally League, then 3-2, 3.12 with a 72/4 K/BB in 69 innings in the Florida State League. I moved his grade up to B-, noting that some scouts were concerned that his command might actually be "too good" and that he'd prove excessively hittable at higher levels. He was still at 88-92 but was showing a better changeup and curveball to go with the slider. 2004 年藍鳥將 Marcum 拉去先發。在 Sally 聯盟的 79 局投球，他繳出 3.19 ERA，83/16 K/BB 的優異成績。接著在 FSL 先發 69 局，投出 72/4 K/BB 的好成績。隔年我給他 B-，說道有些球探擔心他的控球好過頭了只至於可能在更高階的聯盟遭痛擊。那時他速球仍然在 88-92 間跑，但是他的變速球和曲球的威力變好了，且可拿來和滑球混搭。 Marcum began 2005 in Double-A, going 7-1, 2.53 with a 40/10 K/BB in 53 innings. Promoted to Triple-A, he struggled with a 4.95 ERA. HIs K/BB was good at 90/18, but he gave up 112 hits and 17 homers in 104 innings for Syracuse. He pitched eight scoreless innings out of the major league bullpen. I gave him a Grade C+, writing that relief might be his best role. As a starter, I saw him as a possible strike-throwing inning-eater, but didn't expect him to dominate. 2005 年他在 AA 出賽，7-1，2.53 ERA，40/10 K/BB in 53 局。但被拉到 AAA 後，ERA 暴升到 4.95。他的 K/BB 仍然是相當優異的 90/18，但是卻在 104 局的投球中被尻了 112 支安打，包括 17 支全壘打。該年他也在大聯盟留下 8 局無失分的成績。那年我給他 C+，並寫道他最好拿來中繼。如果拿來先發，我那時候認為他可能是三振型的工作馬，但不看好他能有宰制力。 Marcum saw 78 innings of swingman use for Toronto in 2006, then made 25 starts and 13 relief appearances last year. In 245 major league innings, he has a 191/91 K/BB, 242 hits allowed, and a 4.29 ERA. He was quite effective last year . What should we expect for the future? 2006 年他先發中繼兩頭跑，投了 78 局，25 場先發、13 場後援。在大聯盟 245 局的投球中繳出 ERA 4.29、191/91 K/BB、被敲 242 安。去年他投得相當不錯。對於他的未來，我們該做什麼期待呢？ PECOTA's comps are interesting: Jose Acevedo, Frank Castillo, Eric Gagne, Adam Eaton, Art Mahaffey, Doug Drabek, Mike Gardiner, Gil Meche, Jim McAndrew, and Barry Lersch are the top ten. Gagne doesn't make much sense; Marcum doesn't have that kind of stuff. A Drabek-esque ceiling I can see, if Marcum remains healthy and can improve his command a bit more. That would be his ceiling. PECOTA 把他拿來跟以下諸位做類比： Jose Acevedo, Frank Castillo, Eric Gagne, Adam Eaton, Art Mahaffey, Doug Drabek, Mike Gardiner, Gil Meche, Jim McAndrew, and Barry Lersch。Gagne 那個不算數～因為 Marcum 沒他那種stuff。就我看來，如果他保持健康且控球能夠再進步一點的話，他最好的情況是會有 Doug Drabek 那樣的表現。 One thing that stands out for Marcum is his athleticism as a former college shortstop. Athleticism is something that's often underrated when discussing pitchers, but it's a critical factor in development. Marcum may be "undersized" classically as a shorter right-hander, but his athletic ability makes that a lot less important, in my view, and should help him stay healthy and reach his ultimate peak. At this point, I'm pretty optimistic about him. He doesn't have the pure physical upside of Dustin McGowan, but he's got a decent chance to be a much better pitcher than a lot of guys drafted ahead of him in '03. Marcum 的特色是他以前守過游擊。在討論投手時，運動細胞好不好的問題常被忽視。但在球員球技的發展來看卻是相當重要的因素。Marcum 在身高上或許較矮了點，但他的運動細胞讓身高的因素變得較不重要。我對他將來的發展相當樂觀。他上半身的強度或許不若 M&M 兄弟的另一位，但他相較於'03 選秀中在他前面順位被挑走的投手來說，有更大的機會成為更好的投手。 Drabek's best year was 1990 at age 27, when he won 22 games with a +131 ERA+. Marcum's corresponding season would be 2009. Could Marcum make a run at such a season next year? Keep that in the back of your mind. Drabek 生涯年是 1990 年，那年他 27 歲，贏得 22 場勝投，+131 ERA+。照這樣推算的話 Marcum 在 2009 年會達顛峰。明年他有無機會表現 CY 般的成績呢？請銘記在心。註：1. 總覺得這標題在之前就看過？！是在官網嗎？ 2. 下面是取自 baseball-reference 網站的 Doug Drabek 成績 Doug Drabek (Douglas Dean Drabek) Bats Right, Throws Right Height 6' 1", Weight 185 lb. School University of Houston Debut May 30, 1986 vs. OAK 4.3 IP, 1 H, 4 SO, 3 BB, 1 ER Final Game September 25, 1998 Born July 25, 1962 in Victoria, TX Drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 11th round of the 1983 amateur draft. Player signed June 11, 1983. Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BK +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+---+ 1986 23 NYY AL 7 8 27 21 0 0 2 0 131.7 126 64 60 13 0 1987 24 PIT NL 11 12 29 28 1 1 0 0 176.3 165 86 76 22 1 1988 25 PIT NL 15 7 33 32 3 1 0 0 219.3 194 83 75 21 1 1989 26 PIT NL 14 12 35 34 8 5 1 0 244.3 215 83 76 21 0 1990 27 PIT NL 22 6 33 33 9 3 0 0 231.3 190 78 71 15 0 1991 28 PIT NL 15 14 35 35 5 2 0 0 234.7 245 92 80 16 0 1992 29 PIT NL 15 11 34 34 10 4 0 0 256.7 218 84 79 17 1 1993 30 HOU NL 9 18 34 34 7 2 0 0 237.7 242 108 100 18 0 1994 31 HOU NL 12 6 23 23 6 2 0 0 164.7 132 58 52 14 0 1995 32 HOU NL 10 9 31 31 2 1 0 0 185.0 205 104 98 18 1 1996 33 HOU NL 7 9 30 30 1 0 0 0 175.3 208 102 89 21 0 1997 34 CHW AL 12 11 31 31 0 0 0 0 169.3 170 109 108 30 2 1998 35 BAL AL 6 11 23 21 1 0 1 0 108.7 138 90 88 20 0 +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+---+ 13 Yr WL% .536 155 134 398 387 53 21 4 0 2535.0 2448 1141 1052 246 6 +--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+---+ 162 Game Avg 13 11 34 33 4 1 0 0 219.3 212 98 91 21 0 Career High 22 18 35 35 10 5 2 0 256.7 245 109 108 30 2 Year Ag Tm Lg BB SO HBP WP BFP IBB ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP +--------------+----+----+---+---+-----+---+-----+-----+----+-----+ 1986 23 NYY AL 50 76 3 2 561 1 4.10 4.10 100 1.337 1987 24 PIT NL 46 120 0 5 721 2 3.88 4.09 105 1.197 1988 25 PIT NL 50 127 6 4 880 4 3.08 3.39 110 1.112 1989 26 PIT NL 69 123 3 3 994 3 2.80 3.36 120 1.162 1990 27 PIT NL 56 131 3 6 918 2 2.76 3.61 131 1.063 MVP-8,CYA-1 1991 28 PIT NL 62 142 3 5 977 6 3.07 3.61 118 1.308 1992 29 PIT NL 54 177 6 11 1021 8 2.77 3.44 124 1.060 CYA-5 1993 30 HOU NL 60 157 3 12 991 12 3.79 3.88 103 1.271 1994 31 HOU NL 45 121 2 2 657 2 2.84 3.97 140 1.075 CYA-4,AS 1995 32 HOU NL 54 143 8 8 797 4 4.77 3.89 82 1.400 1996 33 HOU NL 60 137 7 9 786 5 4.57 3.89 85 1.529 1997 34 CHW AL 69 85 4 12 731 5 5.74 4.39 76 1.411 1998 35 BAL AL 29 55 5 1 484 2 7.29 4.52 62 1.537 +--------------+----+----+---+---+-----+---+-----+-----+----+-----+ 13 Yr WL% .536 704 1594 53 80 10518 56 3.73 3.79 101 1.243 +--------------+----+----+---+---+-----+---+-----+-----+----+-----+ 162 Game Avg 60 138 4 6 911 4 3.73 3.79 101 1.243 Career High 69 177 8 12 1021 12 2.76 4.52 140 1.060 -- 你給我一種感覺奇特的感覺一時之間我遺失了語言除非是『三月不揭的春帷』才讓我留下足以釀酒的眼淚你笑的一廂情願絕版的明信片恍惚置我於諸神的紀元誰不在等待他的貝德麗采清秀的佳人在日落盡處重現如果你柔情的雙眼懸掛在天邊我願是容納你筆直光線的深邃即使在世紀末以前極短的時間我也要散盡所有力氣雄雄為你搏一回 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.109.55.237

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