[情報] 2009 ZiPS Projections-STL Cardinals

看板Cardinals作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/10/27 18:35)推噓1(1推 0噓 0→)

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http://tinyurl.com/5as2wx While the Cardinals disappointed after the All-Star Break, playing only .500 ball and dropping from a strong 2nd place contender in the NL Central to a very slight 4th behind the Astros, I don't think I'd characterize the season as a failure. The expectations weren't that high and they got several players on the cheap (Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Lohse obviously, but Todd Wellemeyer also was a contributor) that turned out to be keepers. Of course, Lohse isn't cheap any more... A lot depends on Chris Carpenter. If resting this offseason is really enough to cure the nerve damage in his shoulder, the Cards, all caveats about future offseason moves noted, should be one of the top wild card contenders with the Brewers having great challenges at the top of the rotation and the Astros having serious depth issues and not a lot of flexibility. I don't expect them to be in the Sabathia hunt, but the team's not deep enough to lose Looper and not replace him with another mid-rotation guy. Sheets and Burnett might be out of the question, as I believe the losers in the Sabathia bidding are likely to throw money at the best starters left, but there are a couple of guys who might fly under the radar. The middle infield is still a concern - Izturis came back from his injuries a middle-of-the-pack defensive player rather than an fantastic one. I'm still shocked that Felipe Lopez essentially turned around his whole season after joining the Cardinals. Lopez is a free agent, as is Izturis. Data point #350 on Lenny Harris, Worst Hitting Coach Ever? If the Cards decide to Win Now in 2009, enough minor league players had good seasons that they might be able to revisit acquiring Brian Roberts and be able to put together a convincing package that doesn't include Rasmus. Would the last-place Orioles really turn down a Perez-Jay-Todd type of package now? Perhaps, but there are more things to tempt another team than there were a year ago, even with Adam Ottavino having a really disappointing season. This is one of the more interesting teams to watch this offseason. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K CThr AVERAGE Steve Hill 1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BELOW-AVERAGE Bryan Anderson* c 22 .277 .324 .359 103 379 37 105 14 1 5 40 27 65 Av Yadier Molina c 26 .268 .325 .367 122 414 43 111 20 0 7 45 33 39 Vg POOR Mark L. Johnson* c 33 .247 .323 .308 73 227 17 56 8 0 2 20 25 28 Vg Jason LaRue c 35 .190 .281 .302 66 179 16 34 8 0 4 18 18 44 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG EXCELLENT Albert Pujols 1b 29 .328 .433 .606 151 545 103 179 38 1 37 120 97 57 Ex AVERAGE Troy Glaus 3b 32 .258 .360 .451 132 466 65 120 25 1 21 75 72 98 Av Chris Duncan* lf 28 .262 .348 .453 113 344 48 90 16 1 16 55 45 94 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Josh Phelps 1b 31 .271 .338 .453 115 362 41 98 19 1 15 55 31 81 Fr Allen Craig 3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 Av FAIR Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 Av POOR Steve Hill 1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 Fr Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 Av Adam Kennedy* 2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 Av Mark L. Johnson* c 33 .247 .323 .308 73 227 17 56 8 0 2 20 25 28 Av Jason LaRue c 35 .190 .281 .302 66 179 16 34 8 0 4 18 18 44 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 Av BELOW-AVERAGE Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 Pr Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 Av POOR Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 Av Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 Fr Adam Kennedy* 2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 Av Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 Av Cesar Izturis# ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Troy Glaus 3b 32 .258 .360 .451 132 466 65 120 25 1 21 75 72 98 Av AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Allen Craig 3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 Fr David Freese 3b 26 .265 .321 .428 137 528 73 140 28 2 18 75 39 99 Av D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 Av FAIR Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 Av Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 Fr POOR Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 Av Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 Av Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 Av Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 Av Tyler Greene ss 25 .230 .275 .361 111 421 54 97 18 2 11 48 21 97 Av Cesar Izturis# ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG AVERAGE D'Angelo Jimenez# 2b 31 .257 .342 .392 87 237 29 61 12 1 6 29 30 28 Fr Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 Pr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jarrett Hoffpauir 2b 26 .259 .326 .363 119 405 40 105 22 1 6 43 38 41 Fr FAIR Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 Pr Brian Barden ss 28 .254 .307 .359 117 421 45 107 19 2 7 45 28 75 Fr Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 Av POOR Tyler Greene ss 25 .230 .275 .361 111 421 54 97 18 2 11 48 21 97 Av Cesar Izturis# ss 29 .250 .304 .308 98 308 31 77 11 2 1 24 21 20 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K EXCELLENT Ryan Ludwick rf 30 .274 .347 .522 137 456 70 125 31 2 26 85 46 123 Av AVERAGE Chris Duncan* lf 28 .262 .348 .453 113 344 48 90 16 1 16 55 45 94 Fr Josh Phelps 1b 31 .271 .338 .453 115 362 41 98 19 1 15 55 31 81 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Rick Ankiel* cf 29 .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 Av Allen Craig 3b 24 .267 .315 .443 134 535 68 143 28 0 22 81 33 80 Av FAIR Skip Schumaker* cf 29 .292 .344 .388 131 428 58 125 19 2 6 48 33 49 Av Felipe Lopez# 2b 29 .270 .340 .396 150 555 74 150 29 4 11 65 57 95 Av Brian Barton rf 27 .262 .343 .382 104 325 39 85 14 2 7 38 29 75 Vg Joe Mather rf 26 .243 .308 .425 125 428 53 104 22 1 18 63 34 79 Vg POOR Rico Washington* 3b 31 .246 .326 .400 93 285 36 70 17 0 9 37 31 45 Fr Steve Hill 1b 24 .263 .291 .446 98 395 42 104 19 1 17 60 15 80 Fr Juan Encarnacion rf 33 .266 .309 .403 80 293 36 78 14 1 8 37 17 45 Av Nick Stavinoha rf 27 .276 .307 .382 119 421 43 116 16 1 9 49 18 62 Av Aaron Miles# 2b 32 .282 .326 .347 117 354 42 100 15 1 2 33 23 36 Av Jon Jay* cf 24 .265 .315 .375 105 419 48 111 17 1 9 48 27 55 Vg Adam Kennedy* 2b 33 .259 .313 .334 93 290 31 75 14 1 2 27 21 39 Av Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 Av Cody Haerther* lf 25 .243 .300 .333 93 288 26 70 17 0 3 28 22 53 Fr Shane Robinson lf 24 .257 .292 .346 89 338 36 87 13 1 5 34 16 43 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K RNG VERY GOOD Rick Ankiel* cf 29 .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 Fr AVERAGE Skip Schumaker* cf 29 .292 .344 .388 131 428 58 125 19 2 6 48 33 49 Fr ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Brian Barton rf 27 .262 .343 .382 104 325 39 85 14 2 7 38 29 75 Pr Joe Mather rf 26 .243 .308 .425 125 428 53 104 22 1 18 63 34 79 Fr Colby Rasmus* cf 22 .237 .314 .401 114 439 60 104 21 0 17 61 45 85 Vg FAIR Jon Jay* cf 24 .265 .315 .375 105 419 48 111 17 1 9 48 27 55 Vg POOR Brendan Ryan ss 27 .256 .303 .339 104 336 49 86 14 1 4 32 21 46 Fr Shane Robinson lf 24 .257 .292 .346 89 338 36 87 13 1 5 34 16 43 Av * - Hits Left # - Switch-Hitter ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Chris Carpenter 34 3.48 4 3 11 11 62.0 59 24 6 15 48 Adam Wainwright 27 3.71 11 8 26 26 165.0 167 68 12 49 110 MIDDLE THIRD Todd Wellemeyer 30 4.31 8 9 24 24 144.0 142 69 18 61 105 Kyle Lohse 30 4.37 9 10 33 29 177.0 192 86 18 48 113 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Braden Looper 34 4.53 10 12 28 28 167.0 182 84 22 43 90 Jesse Todd 23 4.75 5 6 24 18 110.0 117 58 15 38 58 BOTTOM THIRD Jaime Garcia* 22 4.89 7 9 26 20 116.0 121 63 14 56 70 P.J. Walters 24 4.90 8 10 31 28 158.0 170 86 20 64 102 Charlie Haeger 25 5.22 7 12 27 22 150.0 164 87 17 80 76 Mitchell Boggs 25 5.31 6 10 26 25 144.0 163 85 17 65 74 Tyler Herron 22 5.36 6 9 28 23 131.0 152 78 20 44 60 Blake Hawksworth 26 5.40 6 9 23 22 125.0 145 75 16 48 72 Joel Pineiro 30 5.45 4 6 19 16 99.0 118 60 14 30 51 Clayton Mortensen 24 5.61 4 8 21 20 101.0 117 63 15 49 52 Mike Parisi 26 5.90 5 11 25 21 122.0 150 80 16 56 62 Adam Ottavino 23 5.93 5 10 27 27 129.0 151 85 21 66 67 Mark Mulder* 31 7.16 2 5 11 10 49.0 65 39 10 21 22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K TOP THIRD Russ Springer 40 2.42 4 1 67 0 52.0 41 14 3 17 51 MIDDLE THIRD Kyle McClellan 25 3.75 5 4 59 0 72.0 72 30 6 21 51 Jason Motte 27 3.88 4 3 58 0 65.0 63 28 6 23 60 Jason Isringhausen 36 3.91 4 3 52 0 53.0 48 23 5 26 45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Josh Kinney 30 3.98 2 2 42 0 52.0 49 23 5 23 45 Ryan Franklin 36 4.09 5 5 69 0 77.0 81 35 9 24 47 Ron Villone* 39 4.15 1 1 59 0 52.0 48 24 4 26 43 BOTTOM THIRD Chris Perez 23 4.35 3 3 63 0 60.0 53 29 7 38 62 Randy Flores* 33 4.68 1 1 65 0 50.0 56 26 4 22 40 Mark Worrell 26 4.77 4 4 58 0 66.0 67 35 9 33 54 Ron Flores* 29 4.79 4 6 56 0 62.0 65 33 6 34 42 Brad Thompson 27 4.79 3 3 28 6 62.0 72 33 7 15 29 Tyler Johnson* 28 4.86 1 2 49 0 37.0 37 20 5 19 30 Kelvin Jimenez 28 5.05 3 4 55 0 73.0 82 41 7 26 40 John Wasdin 36 5.31 3 6 26 8 78.0 90 46 14 21 51 Matthew Scherer 26 5.40 3 5 53 0 70.0 79 42 12 25 44 Cliff Politte 35 7.31 0 2 14 0 16.0 20 13 4 7 10 * - Throws Left Player Spotlight - Rick Ankiel Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .293 .359 .588 139 502 90 147 25 3 39 113 49 97 144 Mean .260 .318 .496 128 462 68 120 21 2 28 85 37 106 111 Pessimistic (15%) .233 .290 .423 108 390 43 91 15 1 19 60 29 95 85 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Roy Tucker, Willie Kirkland, Roger Repoz Player Spotlight - Ryan Ludwick Name AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OPS+ Optimistic (15%) .304 .384 .590 153 510 92 155 38 3 34 108 60 120 152 Mean .274 .347 .522 137 456 70 125 31 2 26 85 46 123 125 Pessimistic (15%) .244 .310 .428 117 390 42 95 22 1 16 57 33 119 92 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Jesse Barfield, Larry Parrish Player Spotlight - Kyle Lohse ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 3.46 13 8 36 31 203 198 78 15 44 138 124 Mean 4.37 9 10 33 29 177 192 86 18 48 113 98 Pessimistic (15%) 5.37 6 10 27 24 139 167 83 17 47 77 80 Top Near-Age Comps: Scott Erickson, John Burkett Player Spotlight - Adam Wainwright ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Optimistic (15%) 2.89 15 6 29 29 187 172 60 9 48 134 148 Mean 3.71 11 8 26 26 165 167 68 12 49 110 115 Pessimistic (15%) 4.67 7 9 22 22 129 143 67 13 50 85 91 Top Near-Age Comps: Dock Ellis, Jeff Weaver Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported inthe offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3 ※ 編輯: abc12812 來自: 140.112.5.3 (10/27 18:39)