Re: [情報] BA Cubs Top 10 Prospects

看板Cubs作者Zamned (扎姆德)時間14年前 (2011/11/30 20:43)推噓0(0推 0噓 2→)

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Jim Callis 在付費的Q&A談論小熊新秀。前陣子已經分享上半部，現在就來貼下半部。 -------- 投手部分 -------- "What is the likelyhood of Dae Eun Rhee and Jeff Antigua being selected in the Rule 5 draft and being kept on the picking teams roster all season. In particular, many on NSBB believe that Rhee’s strong end to the season puts him in the top 10 for the system. Can you highlight his stuff and whether you think he could survive in a big league pen in 2012?" I don't think either necessarily will get picked because it would be too hard to keep them on a big league roster all season. Antigua has regressed over the last couple of years and I'd be stunned if he got taken. Rhee was a candidate to make our Top 10 list and just missed, so maybe he tempts someone. As he puts Tommy John surgery further behind him, his stuff is getting better. His changeup is often his best pitch, and he has an 88-92 mph fastball and an inconsistent breaking ball. "Can you give us more about how Dolis comped to Marmol, especially given the difference in K rates?" I wrote that Dolis reminded scouts of Marmol. Both are former position players converted to relievers, both have a lot of velocity on their fastballs and very nasty sliders, and both battle their command. Dolis' K rate wasn't as high as you'd think it should be because the Cubs had him focus on command, so he sometimes dialed back his pitches to find the bottom of the zone. He got a ton of groundouts, and I'll be shocked if his K rate doesn't rise. "Had Whitenack not been injured this year, where did he project on your list?" If he had stayed healthy and kept pitching like he did in the first two months, he would have pushed his way into the Top 10. He's interesting, but he had more solid than overpowering stuff, so he was more of a possible No. 3 starter than a frontline guy. "What is your take on the Cubs ability to develop pitchers, and in particular, adjust their mechanics? This was once considered a strength of the system, but the Cubs have not had nearly as much success in recent years. As it relates to current prospects, I'm thinking about guys like Austin Reed, Nick Struck, and Dillon Maples." [Don't quite know what you're getting at, so I'm going to pass . . . Once you overhaul a guy's mechanics, all bets are off.] "Please rank the following Cubs low A/short season pitching prospects: Luis Liria, Willengton Cruz, Yao-Lin Wang, Jose Rosario, Su-Min Jung, and Jin-Yeong Kim, Ben Wells. Can you give some quick thoughts on each?" Rosario and Wells were the two guys from that group who made the final cut for our Top 30 list in the upcoming Prospect Handbook. Rosario has one of the most explosive arms in the system, though he still needs a lot of polish and might wind up being a set-up man in the long run. Wells has a very heavy sinker, and if he can refine his slider, I could see him becoming a No. 3 starter. "How would you rate the lefty starters in the system (the ones who stand out to me are Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Casey Harman, Frank Del Valle, Jeffry Antigua, Graham Hicks, Zac Rosscup, Willengton Cruz and Austin Kirk)? What are their ceilings and do any of them have the chance to be anything more than a back end of the rotation starter?" This isn't a strength of the system—not a single lefty starter made our Top 30 list. They're all pretty much different versions of the same guy, finesse lefties with fringy stuff and little margin for error. --------- 野手部分 --------- "Castillo being that high surprised just about everyone. Where do you see Wellington Castillo's ceiling? Do you project him as a solid starter at this point or is the Cubs system weak enough that a projected backup catcher ends up at #6 on their prospect list?" He's a legitimate catching prospect, and there just aren't many of those in baseball. I'm not saying he's a future all-star, but he could be a .250-.260 hitter with 15 or so homers and solid defense. That's better than a projected backup catcher. "While it may be quite early to project his future, what is Jeimer Candelario's upside?" Intriguing ceiling, with the caveat that he's a long way from reaching it. He's a switch-hitter who could be a plus hitter with at least average power, though he might be a first baseman in the long run. "Any chance any of Acosta/Malave/Marcona go anywhere other than DSL next season, either to start with or before end of season?" The Cubs aren't afraid to push guys, so maybe they could sneak into the Arizona League. "BA, moreso than any other place, has put out some very laudatory comments on Marco Hernandez, suggesting he has plus speed, arm (write-up for AZL Top 20), 15 HR power projection (AZL Top 20 chat with Bill Mitchell), good bat-to-ball skills (prospect hot sheet helium watch), and good bat speed/contact ability/range/athletic frame (believe AZL Top 20 write-up), amongst other things. In a system with a weak top right now, why is he ranked so low? He might not reach his ceiling, but a potential above average offensive shortstop with above average defensive ability at short seems to be far more intriguing than many others ahead of him." You have to balance ceiling with likelihood, and you don't want to get overly excited about guys who haven't had a chance to fail yet. I like Hernandez and he had a nice U.S. debut, but he's also light years from the majors. He's not the next Starlin Castro where he's going to be in Chicago in little more than another season. The Cubs are a difficult system to rank, and you could make the case for putting him in the Top 10. I just didn't put him in mine. "Does Gioskar Amaya project to have enough power to fit into a corner role, as most assumptions seem to be that he'll grow out of shortstop?" That's questionable. Right now, it looks more like he'll have gap power rather than corner power. He's a lot easier to profile as a big league regular if he could find a home at second base. "Where would you rank Reggie Golden in your Cubs prospect list? Why? Does he seem to be making strides at turning his tools into skills (i.e., athlete becoming better baseball player)?" Golden is in the 11-20 range because he has some of the best tools in the system. He did improve his approach and discipline last year, but making consistent contact is still an issue and he'll probably always strike out some. He's only 20 and did make some strides, so I look at his 2011 season as a positive. -------- 綜合提問 -------- "Any sense of how draft philosophy might change under new regime? or that of IFA signings?" The new CBA will prevent the Cubs from being as aggressive as they were in last year's draft and probably also limit them somewhat internationally. I think the bet way to describe what their philosophy going forward is that I think the Cubs will be as aggressive in acquiring amateur talent as the CBA allows them to be. Under the old CBA, I think the Cubs would have spent as much as any team on a yearly basis. "How do you see Tim Wilken and Jason McLeod coexisting leading up to next year's draft? Is this a playing out the string situation for Wilken, or could he possibly re-up assuming him and McLeod establish a good working relationship?" Too early to say but I don't see any reason they can't co-exist. Both are extremely talented scouts who respect each other. Tom Ricketts seems fond of Wilken, so he probably can work for the Cubs as long as he likes. "Who is your sleeper pick to improve in ranking the most from the Cubs system in 2012?" I'll give you three: Dallas Beeler, Zeke DeVoss and Taiwan Easterling. "Who were the candidates for number 11 on your list?" We go 30 deep in the Handbook, so I can tell you that D.J. LeMahieu is No. 11 , barring further acquisitions or trades. Other guys I considered for the Top 10 included Ryan Flaherty, Dae-Eun Rhee and Dallas Beeler. "Would it be fair to say that draftees have an initial advantage over international free agents of comparable talent when it comes to BA prospect rankings?" I guess, though that's really apples and oranges trying to compare 16-year-old international free agents to 18-year-old high school players and 21-year-old college players. The high school and college guys, in general, are going to be more developed and have more of a track record against much better competition, so naturally they're going to rank higher. -- 所謂的無異常狀態，包含三種情況:一則是真的沒發生任何事，二則是異狀事先被防堵以及沒有察覺到異狀的第三種情況然而實際上發生的卻是第三種..... 拉斯哥爾==奧塞羅 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.169.167.80 ※ 編輯: Zamned 來自: 118.169.167.80 (11/30 20:45)