[討論] Kris Bryant的驚天一擊
Out of all the reasons I enjoy baseball, I think mainly it’s about watching
people do things few other people can do. Granted, that applies to the whole
sport itself — every single player in the major leagues is absolutely
fantastic. But I get particularly charged up by the freaks, and by the freak
events. I love Felix Hernandez‘s changeup because there just isn’t another
one like it. I love Aroldis Chapman‘s fastball because there just isn’t
another one like it. Mike Trout clobbers baseballs other guys don’t clobber.
Andrelton Simmons gathers baseballs other guys don’t gather. Everybody we
watch is several standard deviations above the mean. And then to see things
several standard deviations above that? I watch to be amazed, and players
remain amazing.
Kris Bryant was just called up, as you know. He’s without question an
elite-level prospect and he might be, with some question, an elite-level
player. One thing we know is he possesses an elite-level skill, in his
ability to hit for consistent power. Not every player in the league is
capable of doing truly extraordinary things. Bryant, though, shot up prospect
lists because he is capable. And Tuesday night, we got our first major-league
glimpse. In the first inning of a game against the Pirates, Kris Bryant did
something amazing. Let’s watch and discuss.
You know I’m going to have .gifs to embed, but if you’d prefer to watch
video, here’s a link to the highlight on Cubs.com. What happened: Bryant hit
a double, against Francisco Liriano. That, on its own, isn’t amazing,
although in some sense it really is. But anyway, here’s a full-speed visual:
http://tinyw.in/3BiG
And now here’s a slowed-down swing, from a slightly off-center angle:
http://tinyw.in/NADa
You see pretty good balance, and a compact yet powerful swing. Bryant keeps
his hands at or above his waist, and he really dips his right shoulder in
order to get a more vertical swing plane against the pitch in question. The
ball flies away to the opposite field. We’re going to get to that.
Freeze-frame! Liriano’s pitch target:
http://tinyw.in/cdEg
The goal was clearly to bust Bryant inside with a fastball. And though the
location was slightly missed, Liriano did bust Bryant inside with a fastball.
This is one of the Pirates’ team pitching philosophies, and Bryant was
already behind in the count 0-and-1. The Pirates know he has swing-and-miss
tendencies, and they know you can get in under his hands. That’s a statement
that applies to everybody, but, anyway.
http://tinyw.in/zHIY
Basically, the moment of contact. You can see the angle at which Bryant has
arranged his shoulders. The pitch is located a little above Bryant’s knees,
but more importantly, it’s also inside, and inside off the plate. Part of
the baseball might’ve scraped the inner black, but that’s a certifiably
inside pitch. That’s just about what Liriano wanted to throw. He wasn’t
expecting this:
http://tinyw.in/SN8V
The ball did hit off the fence on the fly. It was the lower part of the
fence, so it wasn’t mere inches away from being a dinger, but that’s a
powerful shot to right-center, right next to a measurement that very
helpfully reads “375”. I’m going to pull an image from the ESPN Home Run
Tracker and estimate where this baseball wound up:
http://tinyw.in/ADQ5
Still pulling, from other places. This time, I’m going to pull from
MLBFarm.com. Shown below, Bryant’s minor-league spray chart from the full
2014 season:
http://tinyw.in/fwj2
Perhaps Bryant’s most remarkable skill is his ability to hit for power to
the opposite field. Anyone who scouted him would’ve been able to see that
strength, and though Bryant also proved he was able to turn on pitches when
he needed to, he showed true all-fields power, which is uncommon in a
prospect. It’s uncommon in a major-league vet. A hitter who can hit for
power to all fields in the minors seems to stand a good chance of being able
to hit for power in the majors.
But it’s one thing to hit with power the other way. It’s another thing to
hit that pitch with power the other way. That’s where this gets really
astonishing. I’m going to use Bill Petti’s Interactive Spray Chart Tool.
What you see below: pitches in similar locations thrown to righties between
2010 and just the other day. All pitch types are included; I didn’t see a
reason to specify fastballs.
http://tinyw.in/5eCy
Okay. So. Where did those pitches get hit?
http://tinyw.in/2LKa
Plenty of pull-side power, as you’d expect. Also plenty of pull-side
non-power, as you’d expect. And there’s practically nothing hit with
authority the other way. Oh, there are balls hit to the opposite field, but
not many of them, and not many hit far and hard. You start to see a little
more as you approach center field, but as you focus on right-center, it’s
really about one dot. It’s one dot, then you have some fly outs.
That dot: a Matt Kemp homer from 2012.
http://tinyw.in/i6Pm
The pitch Kemp hit out:
http://tinyw.in/yclq
Pretty good. But, oh, we’re not done. Kemp’s fly ball hung up and was just
about catchable. According to the Home Run Tracker, under standard
environmental conditions, the dinger would’ve left a total of zero
ballparks. According to the same source, the ball left Kemp’s bat at about
96 miles per hour. Now, there are differences between the Home Run Tracker
and StatCast. StatCast is capable of measuring exit speed. The Tracker has to
approximate it. But, we use what we have. One source puts Kemp’s dinger at
96mph off the bat. Bryant’s double? According to StatCast, the ball left his
bat 10 full ticks faster.
That’s 106 miles per hour. This quickly, we have a new way to appreciate
something we already would’ve been able to appreciate to some extent. Based
on what information we’ve gathered to date, Bryant’s batted ball ranked in
the top seven percent in exit velocity. The overall average for right-handed
hitters has been about 88mph. And the average for righties against pitches
that inside has been about 82mph. As you’d expect, those inside pitches have
given righties trouble, relatively speaking. Not only did Bryant clobber the
pitch; he somewhat inconceivably clobbered the pitch to the fence in
right-center field, in one of the more pitcher-friendly environments in the
game.
I don’t know what else you need. When we all saw the Bryant double live, or
in a highlight, we knew it was incredible. We also have the information to
say how incredible. Hitters just don’t do what Kris Bryant did, and while
maybe some other hitter might’ve turned on the same pitch and knocked it out
to left, that doesn’t mean Bryant’s result wasn’t extraordinary. It was a
great result, and it was a freakish result, the achievement of a
baseball-hitting freak who can do things other people don’t. They don’t
make many hitters like Kris Bryant. Because of this double alone, you could
accurately figure that Bryant has a special skillset.
Doesn’t mean he’s a lock. Javier Baez did some freaky things, too. Wily Mo
Pena did some freaky things. I’ve seen Carlos Peguero do some freaky things.
The impossibly strong are capable of the borderline impossible, even if they
don’t have much of a plan. The scary thing is that Kris Bryant goes up there
with a plan. And it’s usually a good one.
原文http://tinyw.in/B6z6
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IF I DID WHAT DERRICK ROSE IS DOING.....
POLICE STILL WOULDN'T HAVE FOUND MY BODY
Jay Christopher Cutler
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