[情報] BA Chicago Cubs Top 10 Prospects

看板Cubs作者Zamned (宮園かをり R.I.P.)時間9年前 (2015/11/07 09:19)推噓3(3推 0噓 5→)

留言8則, 5人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

1. Gleyber Torres, ss 2. Willson Contreras, c/3b 3. Ian Happ, of/2b 4. Duane Underwood, rhp 5. Dylan Cease, rhp 6. Albert Almora, of 7. Billy McKinney, of 8. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp 9. Eloy Jimenez, of 10. Jeimer Candelario, 3b BEST TOOLS Best Hitter for Average Gleyber Torres Best Power Hitter Eloy Jimenez Best Strike-Zone Discipline Mark Zagunis Fastest Baserunner D.J. Wilson Best Athlete Jacob Hannemann Best Fastball Dylan Cease Best Curveball Bryan Hudson Best Slider Tyler Skulina Best Changeup Jen-Ho Tseng Best Control Daury Torrez Best Defensive Catcher Victor Caratini Best Defensive Infielder Carlos Penalver Best Infield Arm Jeimer Candelario Best Defensive Outfielder Albert Almora Best Outfield Arm D.J. Wilson The Cubs completed their rebuilding project on the field faster even than the extensive renovations at Wrigley Field. After an active offseason that included signing free agent lefthander Jon Lester and free agent manager Joe Maddon, the Cubs won 97 games to earn one of the National League wild cards, thus becoming the first third-place team ever to qualify for the postseason. The 97 victories tied the 2008 edition for the most by a Cubs team in the Expansion Era, and they followed a Wild Card Game victory in Pittsburgh with a four-game Division Series vanquishing of the Cardinals, the first time the Cubs had ever celebrated a playoff victory at Wrigley. When Chicago moved on to meet the Mets in the NL Championship Series, however, the lineup was overmatched by New York’s rotation and the Mets swept the series in four games. In spite of that setback, the outlook in Chicago is bright. The players who helped the Cubs to one of the most successful seasons in franchise history form the core of team looks like a World Series challenger in 2016. Lester, 31, had his customary strong season but yielded No. 1 starter status to Jake Arrieta, 29, whose 0.75 ERA after the all-star break was the lowest in major league history. That duo and Maddon’s deft handling of a bullpen led by former Rule 5 draft pick Hector Rondon helped the Cubs rank third in the NL in team ERA. The Cubs didn’t feel good about their chances in the NLCS after losing the first two games with Lester and Arrieta on the mound, so they’ll need to find upgrades to Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel in the rotation. They’ll have to look outside the organization, though, because their upper-level pitchers have faltered. Prospects Carl Edwards and Corey Black shifted to relief, while oft-injured Pierce Johnson hasn’t built any momentum since reaching Double-A Tennessee in 2014. Of the club’s top pitching options, such as righthanders Dylan Cease, Duane Underwood and Oscar de la Cruz, only Underwood has pitched in full-season ball. The Cubs have the flexibility to deal from a deep cache of position prospects. Arismendy Alcantara and Javier Baez, once two of the club’s most important prospects, have been passed by Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber, who went from 2014 first-round pick to the Cubs’ all-time postseason home run leader (five) in one year. More hitters are on the way, from Double-A Southern League batting champion Willson Contreras and Tennessee teammates Albert Almora and Billy McKinney to shortstop Gleyber Torres. The team took Ian Happ, another advanced hitter, at the top of the 2015 draft. There’s nowhere to play them all, a fact all too clear to the front office. The current braintrust halted a long World Series drought before in Boston, and they won’t rest until they do the same in Chicago. ***************************************************************************** Mike (Bergenfield, NJ): With Contreras a better rated catching prospect then Schwarber, and Scwarber's noticeable defensive struggles in the outfield this postseason, do u see the Cubs moving Schwarber to an AL team by 2017? John Manuel: Contreras is not a better-rated catching prospect; he’s a better defensive catcher. But Schwarber’s bat is so spectacular … they’d have to be overwhelmed with a pitching offer to trade him. It’s more likely that they will work hard to make him a better defender. I think the Cubs could be more creative, especially with Contreras’ athletic ability and potential versatility. Would Joe Maddon be bold enough to have one full-time catcher (say, Montero, under contract through 2017) and 2 reserve catchers in Contreras and Schwarber who both are multi-position options? I don’t know if they could pull that off. To me, Schwarber is their everyday left fielder, and they will live with the struggles. Contreras will get added to the 40-man roster and hopefully continue improving his receiving to be a potential replacement for Montero. Grant (NYC): I see you have Schwarber at C on your 2019 lineup card, and Baez in LF. Could you explain this to us? Thx John Manuel: I was just trying to fit everyone in. Those are always best-case scenarios. I just as easily could have put Contreras at C and Schwarber in LF, but I prefer Baez to Contreras. That’s why I did it. Jeff (Wisconsin): You guys seemed high on McKinney on the midseason top 50. What has changed since then? The injury? His numbers were solid at AA considering his age. John Manuel: We were high on him, as he was raking in high Class A. We talk to a lot more scouts for the postseason stuff than we do at Midseason because it’s not a moving target and the games are over; it’s easier to find scouts, it’s easier to get information and to delve deeper into players. McKinney reminds me a lot of Tommy LaStella; he’s an above-average hitter, chance to be plus, though he did not handled lefthanders at all this year, which is a red flag if he wants to be a regular. Like LaStella, he’s not a great athlete, and other than the hit tool, all the other grades are average or below. What is he, profile wise? It’s hard to see him being an impact player at this point. Most of the scouts I talked to saw both Almora and McKinney and were fairly split. I prefer Almora; I think there’s more there, better body, much, much more defensive value. Frank (Chicago): Did Dewees get any consideration for this list? Thanks John. John Manuel: Not really. I like Dewees OK, but not for the top 10. He has adjustments to make, and again, what is the profile? Is he going to hit for power? If not, is he going to draw more walks? What’s his defensive value? IF it does not come together in those regards—if he is a high-average guy with speed who plays LF and doesn’t hit for power—then who is he? He’d really have to hit for a very high average. He’s more of a 21-30 kind of guy for me. Frank (Chicago): What's Vogelbach's projection at this point? Future DH for an AL club? Still in your top 30? John Manuel: Look for him in the Rule 5 draft preview. He’s blocked, he didn't have a huge year due in part to injury, he's never hit for prodigious power and he lacks defensive value. I didn't realize I was so grumpy today but I apparently am. I like Vogelbach, but I don't see him being a factor for the top 30. Matt (Naperville, IL): How big of a tumble did Pierce Johnson take in your rankings? If he can stay healthy and his command improves, what is he? John Manuel: Pretty decent tumble; talked to a scout who saw him recently in the Arizona Fall league, and it wasn't pretty. The reports of the stuff have backed up and the durability has not improved. I love my Colorado pitching prospects, but Kyle Freeland, Marco Gonzales and Pierce Johnson all are doing their best to make me stop having blind faith in that phylum of players. @Jaypers413 (IL): Do you see Theo changing his drafting strategy and grabbing a projected frontline SP with his first pick next June (assuming one of the top guys is available), considering their pronounced lack of power pitchers in their system? John Manuel: It's really an apples to oranges question, because now the Cubs are not drafting high anymore. The value at the top of the draft, from a historical perspective, has been with bats, not arms. The Cubs just got rewarded for following this by taking Bryant (over Jon Gray) in '13 and Schwarber over a host of guys in '14 (such as Jeff Hoffman), so they went Happ this year in a bad pitching draft. Picking at the end of the first round changes things, though. First, will they even have a first-rounder? They could lose it for signing a free agent. Second, the top bats are often gone by the end of the first round, so they could be more amenable to drafting pitching in the first round. But that wouldn’t be a change in strategy; it would be a change in circumstance. @Jaypers413 (IL): Between Sands and Steele, who would you say has the higher ceiling? John Manuel: I just call them Sands-Steele because I have a hard time differentiating. But as was the case last year, the answer is Steele. Kelly (St. Cloud, MN): Is Torres sticking at short for the foreseeable future? Three years from now? John Manuel: Read the report … but the answer is yes. He's a shortstop now, and 3 years from now, when he's a ripe old 21. @Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for chatting, John. What's the word on Contreras' injury from yesterday in the AFL? Anything serious? John Manuel: Just saw that his hamstring injury apparently is serious enough for him to get pulled from the Fall Stars game. Too bad. As long as it's not torn, I can't see that being a huge deal considering the timing; as long as he shuts it down and rests for next spring, he should be fine. Mike (Boston): Curious about why Eddy J. Martinez didn't crack the list. He seems like the sot of premium international signing who would slot in immediately. Do you view him as a candidate to place high on the list next year? John Manuel: He's not. Premium int'l signings are for 8 figures, not 7. I'm not making light of it, but premium international guys all get in the 10s of millions of dollars. Some of the media reports of Mr. Martinez's tools, to our understanding, are inflated. He can really run and has athleticism. We'll see about the bat. He's an 11-20 kind of guy. Jon KK (Elkhart, IN): With Christian Villanueva getting scrunched by infielders above and below him, even with a decent all-around game does he have a chance to make it to the majors? Any trade value? John Manuel: Not really with the Cubs, except maybe in a utility role. He doesn't run great or have super positional versatility, so he's more a trade guy, but he's a Triple-A 3B-2B with modest power. He won't fetch much. I think he's more likely to be DFA’d sometime in the future and traded that way, otherwise he'll bide his time as insurance at third base in Iowa. Not a bad player, but not an impact guy, and you win titles with impact players who have impact tools. He'd be the White Sox' best third baseman though! RotoChamp (Arizona): Willson Contreras came out of nowhere in 2015 and is now #2 on the list. If you had to give a name currently out of the top 20ish prospects that could make the top 5 next year, who would that be? John Manuel: Contreras is one of the biggest climbers I can think of in 15 years of Handbooks. I’m sure there are others, but consider that Contreras was Rule 5-eligible last year (and every year since 2010), but wasn’t picked. Oscar Hernandez, a low Class A catcher, was picked, but not Contreras. I wish I had ranked him but I don’t think I was alone in missing him; 29 other teams had a shot at him in a way as free talent and chose not to take him. As for outside the top 10 guys who could really jump up … the Cubs’ young Latin American arms such as Adbert Alzolay and Pedro Araujo are intriguing. DJ Wilson, their 4th-round pick, could jump high into the top 10 if his workout tools translate into full-season production. Maybe Kevonte Mitchell will get it, but man, he did not back up my great faith in him this year. Disappointing season. RotoChamp (Arizona): Did Carl Edwards exit from the top 10 because of 'stuff' concerns or is the transition from SP to RP the only reason for his descent? John Manuel: The reliever deal was kind of important. Chalk that up as a pretty big whiff by yours truly; I really thought that guy was going to be a star. Sorry for getting your hopes up, Cubs fans. Larry Young (Dallas Texas): With a lot of outfield prospects, which one excited you the most? Eloy Jimenez? John Manuel: Honestly, I’d say Almora, because I think he’s starting to get it. I like my Aaron Rowand comp for his career going forward — grinder, good CF on defense, 6-hole hitter type, not a star but a solid-average regular, good teammate, glue guy, etc. TK (Wilmette): Ryan Williams, Jeremy Null and Daury Torrez each had years as starting pitchers with very low BB rates. What are their upsides? John Manuel: This is the best question of the chat so far, TK; hang a star on this one. I really like Torrez compared to many of the Cubs’ pitchers due to his true FB command. If he had a secondary pitch that was above-average, he’ d be in the Top 10. Alas, he lacks such a pitch, so he’ll just keep grinding his way toward Chicago, but it’s hard to see him as an impact guy. He throws harder than Null or Williams; I like Null better than Williams as a poor man’ s Doug Fister with his size, angle and solid slider, which is better than any of Williams’ secondary pitches. Williams is unique though; I think of him as a Seth Maness type, perhaps because both went to East Carolina but mostly because both are extreme sinkerballers. Like Maness, I think Williams fits best long-term in a bullpen role, maybe he’ll find a bit more velocity there. I believe 2 of those 3 will be in the final 30, but I had to do both Cubs & Cardinals this issue, and those 30s aren’t done yet. mike (utica): Based on the scouting reports on Dylan Cease is his ceiling along the lines of Sonny Gray? John Manuel: Somewhat as both short guys with big stuff, though Gray was stronger-bodied than Cease at a comparable age. But the huge — think Trump saying YUUUUGE — difference is, everyone loved Sonny Gray’s makeup, both out of HS and at Vandy. He just had the it factor, and no knock on Cease, but he is not Sonny Gray. He’s just not. Scouts loved Sonny Gray’s makeup when he was an amateur. Teddy (Granville): Hey John, thanks for the chat. I got the chance to see Candelario take infield practice a few times this past season, and due to the footwork I don't think he'll be able to maintain the mobility to stay at third past his prime, what are your thoughts on this? John Manuel: Scouts don’t agree with your assessment. I have words like “ light on his feet” and “agile” in my notes, plus “outstanding defender” and “good instincts” in my reports from three different professionals in the scouting field. You may prove to be right, but those are my thoughts on this. Michael Caldwell (Madison, Indiana): How likely is this list to need a major overhaul before Spring Training because of trades? Thanks! John Manuel: I don’t think it is likely; the Cubs can spend, or they can trade major league-ready players such as Arismendy Alcantara or Javy Baez. Maybe a couple of guys such as McKinney or Contreras, but many of the rest of the Cubs’ higher-ceiling prospects are quite young and need a bit more time to establish the kind of trade value the club needs to trade for a pitcher good enough to start 2 games per playoff series. Sang (Chicago): Not really a prospect question but at the beginning of the season scouts said/projected Bryant to having the best power in the system, after the season that Schwarber had do scouts still feel the same way? John Manuel: I haven’t asked that question; I still think Bryant has more power, but as I wrote last year, Schwarber is a better pure hitter and gets to his power a bit more. I do think it’s worth noting that Schwarber tailed off; he had the HRs in the postseason, most impressive, but he hit .216 after Aug. 1 in the regular season. I think he’s the better pure hitter, more balanced, etc., but Bryant makes adjustments, has a big athleticism edge and has plenty of power on his own. I think it’s close but edge on power to me still goes to Bryant. Navin (Pasadena, CA): What are your thoughts on pitchers Carson Sands and Justin Steele? They received quite a bit of attention for their big bonuses but appear to have been passed by teammate Oscar de la Cruz. John Manuel: They have been passed by the bigger, better athlete. Nothing wrong with either of them, though. Steele’s a solid athlete, making progress, Sands is more polished with less projection. I like both but they are both step-a-year guys. De la Cruz is the one who’s the potential stud. Dan That Cubs Fan (Cubby Bear): Where do the Cubs rank in comparison to the rest of the league after so many call ups last year? Still a top 5 farm system in terms of talent? John Manuel: Closer to the 7-12 range for me, but frankly, there are a LOT of bad farm systems out there. The influx of young players in the majors is awesome for everything but the Handbook, haha. Not a lot of great farm systems this year. Teddy (Granville): Thoughts on both Chesny Young and Tyler Skulina, MLB potential for both? Love Skulina's fastball + slider combo when he's healthy. John Manuel: Skulina’s stuff has been inconsistent because he’s struggled to stay on the field. Young is a nice org depth guy, a righthanded LaStella in a lot of ways, lacks power to be an impact big leaguer but he’s a really good hitter who controls the bat and the strike zone. His defensive versatility is fine but does not really include SS. He may hit his way there though; I’m trying to find a spot for both in the 30. Both likely but not a lock. Archie (Indiana): Which arm in the Cubs system right now has the best chance to be a TOR arm? How likely do you think that is to happen? John Manuel: Cease and de la Cruz have the most upside; Underwood is closer to the big leagues but I think of him more as a potential No. 3 starter tops. Cease though is electric, and de la Cruz is a beast physically who has the potential to be really special. Andrew (Charlotte): Still early, but with a couple months more perspective, how would you rate the Cubs 2015 draft? John Manuel: I like the draft from the early reports on Happ, Bryan Hudson and DJ Wilson. However, I also am intrigued by Craig Brooks, who throws hard, and submariners/sidearmers Dave Berg and Preston Morrison. Those last two were college studs; if one of them turned into Darren O’Day, that would be a real nice budget pick. Of course, at this time last year, I was all about Jake Stinnett from their 2014 draft; really not sure what happened there. He’ s probably the biggest disappointment from the Cubs’ ’14 draft. Hector (Chicago): Can Happ make it to the show next season and make the same contributions as Shwarber John Manuel: No. He’s got a chance to be an impact bat and maybe a lesser version of a Ben Zobrist; he doesn’t have the shortstop ability Zobrist has had, but he has similar offensive impact potential according to some of the scouts I talked to. One thing is Zobrist never struck out as often as Happ does. That swing-and-miss propensity is the one caveat with Happ that holds me back on him a bit. There are a few questions in the queue about Happ moving as fast as Schwarber; that answer is no. I do not think he is that pure of a hitter. PBish (Chicago): Did Brad Markey make the top 30? John Manuel: He will make it, interesting guy, liked him as an amateur, think he has a shot as a reliever and might even start. Short, sharp breaking ball, I saw him up to 94 when he was at Va. Tech, and he’s pitched well as a pro. Pretty long track record too going back to Santa Fe (Fla.) CC. Nice sleeper. PBish (Chicago): Did Mark Zagunis get any consideration for this list? John Manuel: He didn’t miss the top 10 by much, has his advocates, tough call on him vs. Candelario. I think Jeimer has much more defensive value. But if things break right, Zagunis could wind up in Chicago quickly as an extra OF. He lacks position versatility now that he’s not a catcher, though, and he may not wind up with corner power. He’s got a chance to hit his way into being a big league regular in LF, though. Jacob (Chicago): Noah Syndergaard for Addison Russell. Who says no? John Manuel: I don’t know! I love challenge trades like that one … I would guess the Mets say no, though, and hope they can upgrade SS without trading the rookie who won them their only World Series game. Syndergaard is another guy I was very wrong about. This is a humbling business sometimes! Chris (East Lakeview, IL): I saw your earlier comment on Carl Edwards. Do you think he may yet return to the rotation? Carlos Martinez pitched in relief for StL his first couple seasons before returning the rotation this postseason. Possible for Edwards? John Manuel: Possible but unlikely. He’s not that physical or that caliber of athlete. Harry (Dallas, TX): How many of these are likely to make the top 100? John Manuel: Surprisingly, I’d say anywhere from 3 to 7 of these guys are top 100 candidates, though most of them are 60-100 range types. I like Torres a lot and know others at BA feel the same way. Contreras is tougher with a short track record but Double-A success and position scarcity. Happ’s an easy Top 100 guy as a high draft pick who went out and hit immediately. After that it’s a crap shoot … Don (Chicago): Does a guy like Felix Pena make your Top 30? He lead the organization in strikeouts in 2015, but was never really a potential prospect prior to this year. John Manuel: At least two of the scouts I talked to believe he should be in the 30. Frankly, I’ll wait until the last minute and see if the Cubs put him on their 40-man roster. He’s been Rule 5 eligible before and gone unpicked, but he’s up to 95 regularly as a starter, had a strong season, and I think he ’d be popped this year if left unprotected. If they protect him, he’ll make the 30. If not I’ll have his writeup ready to go for whatever team picks him. Tim Stephens (Proctorville, Ohio): Trevor Clifton is impressive. Do you see a bump in velocity as he fills out and, if so, can he be a mid-to-front-end starter? John Manuel: Everyone’s waiting for that, and it’s still quite possible. Still early in his career, and he was quite raw. But so far, the Great Tennessee Prep Pitching Class of 2013 has not shaken out — Hayden Stone and Will Crowe have had Tommy John in college, Kyle Serrano has struggled and Dakota Hudson, while coming on, has not quite done it yet at Mississippi State, and he just got a new (albeit quite well regarded) pitching coach. That was a good year for pitching in the Volunteer State though; I’m still watching all those guys with great interest. Tommy (Chicago): What are your thoughts on the Cubs pretty clear strategy to stockpile bats even if there are positional questions? Do you see any potential pitfalls with it? Schwarber, Happ, Dewees, McKinney, Zagunis and the list goes on. John Manuel: Schwarbs worked out pretty well; McKinney was an extra piece in the Addison Russell deal, a smart pickup. Happ and Dewees were among the best players on the board when drafted, especially Happ. Zagunis has progressed nicely … I think those moves all have worked so far. -- やっ..........！！！！！！止めろペイモンこの野郎～～～～～～っ地獄でいきなり聖書なんえ読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ！！殺すえおっ！！ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 61.230.93.29 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Cubs/M.1446859155.A.147.html