[情報] '17 FG Top 23 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

看板Cubs作者Zamned (Как дела?)時間7年前 (2017/01/22 11:01)推噓3(3推 0噓 38→)

留言41則, 4人參與討論串1/1

Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV 1 Eloy Jimenez 20 A OF 2019 60 2 Ian Happ 22 AA 2B 2018 55 3 Oscar De La Cruz 21 A RHP 2019 50 4 Jeimer Candelario 23 MLB 1B 2017 50 5 Jose Albertos 18 R RHP 2020 45 6 Albert Almora 22 MLB CF 2017 45 7 Dylan Cease 21 A- RHP 2019 45 8 Trevor Clifton 21 A+ RHP 2018 45 9 Mark Zagunis 23 AAA OF 2017 45 10 Jose Rosario 26 AAA RHP 2017 45 11 DJ Wilson 20 A- OF 2020 40 12 Eddie Martinez 21 A OF 2019 40 13 Aramis Ademan 18 R SS 2020 40 14 Victor Caratini 23 AA C/1B 2017 40 15 Felix Pena 26 MLB RHP 2017 40 16 Thomas Hatch 22 R RHP 2018 40 17 Isaac Paredes 17 R INF 2022 40 18 Chesny Young 24 AA INF 2018 40 19 Donnie Dewees 23 A+ LF 2018 40 20 Jose Paulino 21 A LHP 2019 40 21 Bryan Hudson 19 A- LHP 2022 40 22 Duane Underwood 22 AA RHP 2018 40 23 Bailey Clark 22 A- RHP 2019 40 1. Eloy Jimenez, OF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic Age 20 Height 6’4 Weight 235 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/50 70/80 50/70 45/40 45/50 50/50 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Recorded .204 ISO in full-season ball at age 19. Scouting Report Jimenez has perhaps the most explosive raw power projection in the minors. When he debuted in the states it was clear his broad-shouldered, 6-foot-4 frame would one day fill out and yield all kinds of crazy power. (He already had at least 55 raw at age 18.) That said, I didn’t expect so much of it to come before Jimenez turned 20. Even when he took batting practice alongside some of the other more prodigious power prospects in the game (Dylan Cozens and Christin Stewart, to name two) at the Futures Game and at Fall Stars, Eloy’s power stood head and shoulders above everyone else’s. Not only does he hit blasts in BP that threaten to enter geocentric orbit but low-lying line drives that, if they don’t clear the wall, seem likely to blast through it. Perhaps the most notable aspect of Jimenez’s raw power is not its quantity but ease. He does all this without much effort, which is not only remarkable but also a significant indicator that he’ll get to his power in games. Scouts are weary of high-effort power hitters. Eloy is not one. Hitters this size often have gaping holes in their swings but Jimenez, has good feel for the barrel and has shown an ability to move his hands inside and put a good part of the bat on pitches that would otherwise have tied him up. He’s strong enough to do damage like this even though he’s not fully extended. It’ s possible that upper-level pitching will deduce an effective way to pitch to Jimenez and force him to make adjustments. He’s an aggressive hitter and will probably need to learn to stay away from the unhittable garbage he’s going to see at Double-A and above as pitchers try to nibble around his power. Some would argue his struggles toward the end of the Arizona Fall League were a result of his inability to do that right now, but to me he simply looked gassed, out of rhythm and was frequently barring his front arm. His stint here didn’t raise any red flags for me, nor did it for scouts who saw him mid-year and in the AFL. I think he hits .280 with 30-plus homers at peak; how much he gets on base, though, will be dictated by the way he adjusts to upper-level pitching. Defensively, Jimenez has an average arm and is a below-average runner (average underway) who is fringey in right field. He should be average there with reps. He’s a future middle-of-the-order hitter and potential star. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 7.5 WAR 2. Ian Happ, 2B Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Cincinnati Age 22 Height 6’0 Weight 205 Bat/Throw S/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 40/55 55/55 40/50 55/55 40/45 55/55 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Collected 17 homers, 16 stolen bases (76% success rate) in 2016. Scouting Report Happ slashed .369/.492/.672 as a junior at Cincinnati despite undergoing double hernia surgery just before the season began. The Cubs drafted him ninth overall in a draft chock full of good college hitters up top despite questions about his ultimate defensive home. Happ spent most of 2015 in the outfield (it was a way to lighten the toll on his body after that hernia surgery) both at Cincinnati and with the Cubs that summer after he signed. In 2016, he was primarily back to second base. Happ is a 40 defender there. He’s an above-average straight-line runner with decent range and an above-average arm, but his actions and athleticism are not optimal for the infield and his footwork around the bag is suspect. Batted-ball data has come far enough that it’s possible to hide bad defenders through more efficient positioning. That seems most helpful when the player in question has poor range. That’s not really Happ’s problem, though good defensive positioning might render a higher percentage of his defensive chances simple and routine. Unless you consider him a hopeless liability there (I don’ t), I think it makes sense to leave him at second. The Cubs have superior defensive middle infielders ahead of Happ, though, so even if a move to left field doesn’t make sense in a vacuum, it might be the most expedient means by which to get Happ’s bat into the big-league lineup — because it profiles wherever he ends up playing. Happ has plus bat speed and above-average power from both sides of the plate (some put a 60 on the raw from the left side). He has better bat control from the left side, but his discerning eye for the strike zone and patience allow him to get on base and tap into his power from the right side, as well, even though he makes less contact. Happ’s barrel drags from the left side and he doesn’t always pull and demolish pitches that he should, but he’s explosive and strong enough that some of the contact he’s pushing the other way finds its way into the seats. It’s an above-average hit, average game-power profile for me, which, when supplemented by Happ’s ability to reach base via the walk and do some damage on the bases, plays as an above-average regular at either second or left. 3. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic Age 22 Height 6’6 Weight 240 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 55/60 55/60 40/55 40/50 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Recorded 31% strikeout rate in six Low-A starts. Scouting Report De La Cruz has rather significant upside but also comes with a few warts. He’s got a power pitcher’s body, power pitcher’s stuff and seeks to attack hitters up and in, the way power pitchers do. But he missed the first half of the year with forearm soreness and had issues repeating his arm slot and release point throughout the rest of the year. When De La Cruz was pitching well, he’d flash command of a fastball in the 90-95 mph range that touched as high as 96 with late tail. His mid-70s curveball flashes plus, and he has some feel for back-dooring it to lefties and burying it in front of the plate. He doesn’t consistently maintain his fastball ’s arm speed when throwing his changeup, but he has feel for movement and scouts with whom I spoke think the pitch has significant projection in part because he’s only been pitching for four years. There’s No. 3 starter upside here if the changeup and command both come. De La Cruz turns 22 in March and has yet to pitch above Low-A, which, coupled with the forearm issue he had in 2016, makes him a fairly risky prospect. Independent of that, he’s a prototypical impact pitching prospect who has coveted, unteachable traits in his velo, breaking-ball feel and size. 4. Jeimer Candelario, 1B Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic Age 23 Height 6’1 Weight 210 Bat/Throw B/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 55/60 50/50 45/50 40/30 40/45 55/55 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Produced .418 wOBA, 12% walk rate, and 17% strikeout rate at Triple-A in 2016. Scouting Report The theory cited above (in the Ian Happ profile) regarding the possibility of more advanced batted-ball data allowing clubs to hide bad defenders applies to Candelario, too. He lacks the lateral quickness, soft hands and footwork to play third base for me and instead projects as a first-base-only player despite an above-average arm. Others are more receptive to punting defense at third base if it means getting a bat like Candelario’s in the lineup. There are all kinds of fantastic hitterish traits here. Candelario is fluid and comfortable in the box, he has a combination of good bat control and hand-eye coordination that allows him to spoil tough two-strike pitches, he makes in-flight adjustments to offspeed pitches, and he hits to all fields (though most of his power comes to his pull side). He’s traditionally been a better hitter from the left side but has more leverage and power as a right-handed hitter. In aggregate, he projects as a plus hitter with average game power, a profile that places him on the fringe of playing every day at first base. That said, most think (and I count myself among those that do) that Candy’s eye for the strike zone and ability to walk tip the scale in his favor. Ultimately, he can probably become an average regular at first. His path to the majors is blocked by Anthony Rizzo, and it may take a trade or injury for him to see significant time in the bigs in 2017, though his bat appears ready. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.9 WAR 5. Jose Albertos, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Mexico Age 18 Height 6’1 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 60/60 40/50 55/70 40/60 Relevant/Interesting Metrics None. Scouting Report A lot of scouts/executives with whom I’ve spoken have either seen Albertos or know quite a bit about how he looked this year. In fact, for an arm who threw just four stateside innings this year, the consistency with which I was able to farm opinions on Albertos is somewhat suspicious — and perhaps a sign that clubs were chasing him near the mid-summer trade deadline. Albertos was sitting 90-94 mph in extended spring training before his fastball ticked up in the summer. He was 93-98 in his only AZL outing, throwing strikes where he wanted to at 95, and still bumping 96-plus in his fourth inning of work. His breaking ball’s (currently a curveball) shape is inconsistent right now, and there’s a chance it one day evolves into more of a slider than a true curve. For now it projects to average. Albertos’ best secondary offering is his changeup, which is already above average and arguably projects to plus-plus; his feel for locating it is already quite good. He pitched off of it a bit too much for scouts’ taste (considering the fastball velo is too much for AZL hitters), but it will probably be his best pitch at maturity. There isn’t much room for physical projection on Albertos’ modest frame, but he has an immature, somewhat soft body that scouts think will tighten up as he enters his 20s and help him to maintain something close to the velocity they saw last summer over a full season of innings. The fastball, changeup and command all project to plus or better, while the breaking ball is currently underwhelming but at least has the makings of a viable third offering. He represents extreme risk due to his (lack of) proximity to the majors and because of the “elbow injury” for which he was shut down after making that scintillating AZL start — during which, I’d like to remind you, he was still touching 96 in his final inning. Like De La Cruz, he projects as a No. 3 starter and, considering the advanced pitchability he displayed last year, he might move quite quickly and could appear on midseason top-100 lists this summer. 6. Albert Almora, CF Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Mater Academy (FL) Age 23 Height 6’2 Weight 190 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 45/50 50/50 30/40 55/55 60/60 55/55 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Posted just 2.7% walk rate at Triple-A. Scouting Report An above-average runner who will post some jail-breaky, plus run times to first base, Almora doesn’t have the prototypical speed associated with plus or better defensive center fielders, but his instincts and efficient routes make him one. He’s passable going back on balls hit near the wall but spectacular going from gap to gap and coming in on shallow flies. He has a plus arm when he ’s set to make a strong, fundamentally sound throw but doesn’t have the kind of howitzer that allows him to make long tosses when he’s off balance. He’s so often in good position that his arm might play as plus in games. Offensively, Almora is short to the ball with a swing path that remains in the hitting zone for quite a while, allowing for plenty of contact; however, I question the bat speed and aggressive approach, both of which eat away at the quality of Almora’s contact. He has fringe to average raw power that plays down in games, also a symptom of those aforementioned issues, and is more of a gap-to-gap and down-the-lines doubles hitter when he really connects. This is a modest contact/speed profile without much power or on-base ability, and it won’ t play every day in a corner if Almora ever slows down too much to stay in center field. He’s such a gifted defender that, even if he does lose a tick in his legs, he still probably plays there. He projects as a fringe-average regular whose value is wrapped up in his glove. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 4.1 WAR 7. Dylan Cease, RHP Drafted: 6th Round, 2014 from Milton HS (GA) Age 21 Height 6’1 Weight 175 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 70/70 50/55 30/45 30/45 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Recorded 36% strikeout rate but also 14% walk rate at Northwest League. Scouting Report Of all the young arms the Cubs were able to draft and pay by agreeing to an underslot deal with Kyle Schwarber, Cease has been the best — this despite already having a Tommy John surgery under his belt. Cease has done an admirable job at quelling what was once a violent head whack while still retaining the kind of velocity that made him an exciting prep prospect. He sat 93-97 deep into starts this year and was 95-99 for me during instructional league. He was also flashing a plus curveball in the 79-81 mph range during instructs, but the pitch is more consistently average and, at times, below when it featured an easily identifiable, shapely hump out of his hand. He carved up hitters on a talented Reds advanced instructs club in the fall with that fastball/curveball combo. There are several concerns about Cease, ranging from his size to his command (a 30 right now) to a lack of a third pitch (he has very little changeup feel right now). Cease actually pitches with a good bit of plane when he’s working down because of his vertical arm slot (which also helps him create depth on the curveball) and his fastball has enough life to miss bats up in the zone when he ’s missing his spots. I’m less concerned about the size than I am the command and lagging changeup feel. I’ve gotten a Yordano Ventura comp on Cease (undersized, hard-throwing righty with good curveball feel), but Ventura was in the bigs at 22 and had more favorable changeup projection than Cease does because of his looseness and fluidity. Cease turned 21 in December and remains a project, though a very exciting one at that. He too projects as a potential mid-rotation arm if the changeup and command improve, but he’s more likely to wind up in relief than the other notable arms in the system. 8. Trevor Clifton, RHP Drafted: 12th Round, 2013 from Heritage HS (TN) Age 22 Height 6’4 Weight 210 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Changeup Command 50/55 50/55 45/50 40/50 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Walk rate has decreased at each new minor-league level, was 8% in 2016. Scouting Report Clifton missed a lot of bats in the Carolina League thanks to an unimpeachable desire to pester hitters with a sinking low-90s fastball (anywhere from 88-95 this year) down and to his arm side. Scouts don’t love the effort in Clifton’ s delivery, his low arm slot (which might be what forces him to nibble against left-handed hitters, who see the ball well out of his hand), or how little he uses his lower half, but his curveball drew some future plus grades from sources with whom I spoke. It tilts in anywhere from 71-77 mph, sometimes lacking depth due to Clifton’s lower arm slot. His changeup is fringey and projects to average mostly due to Clifton’s deceptive arm speed, but it’s unlikely to miss many bats. There’s still a chance Clifton ends up in the bullpen due to subpar command ,but the stuff is that of an average No. 4 big-league starter. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.8 WAR 9. Mark Zagunis, OF Drafted: 3rd Round, 2014 from Virginia Tech Age 24 Height 6’0 Weight 212 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 55/60 50/50 30/40 50/50 40/45 50/50 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Slashed .274/.360/.486 at Triple-A in 2016. Scouting Report The question rival scouts seek to answer when they evaluate Zagunis is whether his impressive secondary skills can compensate for game power that falls well short of profiling in an outfield corner. Zagunis has good bat speed and a short, high-contact stroke, but his linear swing path results in far more ground balls and low liners than it does airborne contact. He projects to hit only around 10-12 home runs annually and, as just an average runner, he doesn’ t have the speed to play in center field. Despite a lack of in-game power, Zagunis has been able to sustain an impressive walk rate as he’s entered the upper levels of the minors, where, theoretically, pitchers with better strike-throwing ability should be attacking Zagunis, who can’t do much damage on his own. His .360 OBP in 50 Triple-A games is the only sub-.400 OBP he’s posted in his entire pro career. If he can maintain that on-base ability into the majors, then he profiles as a low-end regular left fielder. The tools are that of a bat-first fourth outfielder and luxurious pinch-hit option. He’ll likely have a lengthy big-league career because of his bat-to-ball ability. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.8 WAR 10. Jose Rosario, RHP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2007 from Dominican Republic Age 26 Height 6’1 Weight 170 Bat/Throw R/R Fastball Curveball Command 70/70 50/55 40/40 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Recorded 2.86 FIP between Double- and Triple-A in 2016. Scouting Report Rosario was added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster in November and is likely to be a significant part of their bullpen by midseason. He throws a 95-99 with a four-seamer that one could argue plays up due to Roasrio’s deceptive arm speed. It’s a full-effort delivery and the command is bad, but Rosario throws enough strikes for relief and, when he’s missing in the zone, his stuff lets him get away with a lot of those mistakes. He also throws a power curveball, 78-85, that’s consistently average, flashes plus. Rosario has been pitching in relief for only one year and missed all of 2015 recovering from Tommy John. It’ s possible there’s a more consistently dominant curveball in there, but he’s also 26. It’s setup man stuff, if that’s still allowed to be a thing. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.4 WAR 11. DJ Wilson, OF Drafted: 4th Round, 2015 from Canton South HS (OH) Age 20 Height 5’8 Weight 177 Bat/Throw L/L Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 20/40 45/50 20/40 60/60 45/60 50/50 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Slashed .257/.320/.371 at Low-A in first full pro season. Scouting Report Don’t be fooled by outlier measureables: DJ Wilson may be small, but he’s physical, twitchy, explosive and plays at full speed all the time. He is a plus runner with high-effort, plus bat speed and sneaky raw power. He’s also erratic and unbalanced at the plate. A priority for the Cubs will be to rein in his game and refine his style of play without obscuring any of his impressive athletic traits. He’s plenty fast and athletic enough to stay in center field long term and could be plus there with reps; his speed will also be an asset on the bases. Wilson has enough raw power that, if he’s ever a threat to hit for it in games, opposing pitchers will need to approach him with caution, allowing his above-average feel for the strike zone to aid in Wilson’s efforts to get on base. His swing needs a comprehensive overhaul and, considering Wilson is already 20 and was rather old for his draft class, that might need to come sooner than later. There’s obvious risk here because there aren’t many major-league hitters who look like this (both mechanically and physically), but Wilson was a flier worthy of the $1.3 million price tag required to seduce him away from Vanderbilt. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.4 WAR 12. Eddie Martinez, OF Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 30/45 55/60 30/45 55/55 45/50 60/60 Relevant/Interesting Metrics Recorded 22% strikeout rate at Low-A in 2016. Scouting Report The Cubs swooped in late and snatched Martinez out from under the Giants with a $3 million bonus in 2015. The small but well built and twitchy Cuban got his first helping of consistent play since 2013 last year and flashed an intriguing collection of tools in the Midwest League while frustrating scouts with his inconsistency and, especially, an undercooked feel for hitting. Martinez is an above-average runner with a plus arm. Some think he passes (or could one day pass) in center field, but the general consensus is that he fits best in right. The pressure put on his bat in an outfield corner might cause the overall profile to break, as Martinez has some offensive red flags. He has plus bat speed and raw power. He gets to a good bit of the power in games because of the natural lift in his swing, but he has a tendency to swing through hittable strikes, either because his swing is grooved or because he doesn’t track very well. Either way, scouts have questions about the hit tool. It’s possible EJM’s feel to hit is so raw because he simply hasn’t had many game reps over the last few years and he needed a full-year tune-up to regain his timing. If that’s the case, then we should expect to see significant improvement in 2017. He has the tools of an average everyday player but would do a lot to instill confidence in that kind of projection by making better quality contact in the Carolina League this year. KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 0.2 WAR -- やっ..........！！！！！！止めろペイモンこの野郎～～～～～～っ地獄でいきなり聖書なんえ読み上げやがってえ~~~~~~~~~っ！！殺すえおっ！！ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.164.254.126 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Cubs/M.1485054101.A.605.html

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