Top 20 Prospects: Detroit Tigers (3/2/2009)
Summary
Detroit has greatly thinned its system over the past few seasons, leaving a
Top 20 (and specifically Top 10) heavy on 2007 and 2008 draftees. Rick
Porcello (1) remains one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball,
while a group of bullpen arms in the 2008 class -- Ryan Perry (2), Cody
Satterwhite (3) and Brett Jacobson (4) -- could rocket through the system
quickly. There isn’t tons of high-ceiling talent after this core group of
arms. Indeed, one of the most glaring weaknesses in the system is projectable
talent. While this year’s crop doesn’t grade out particularly well, most
troubling is the fact that many of them simply do not have much room to
improve their status. Big seasons from Cale Iorg (5) and Scott Sizemore (8)
could brighten the system’s outlook a bit, as could a second strong season
from toolsy but inconsistent outfielder Wilken Ramirez (11). The sole
strength of the system is bullpen arms, as 10 of our Top 20 (and three of our
Top 5) profile to relief work, so Detroit should at least have a steady
stream of arms to help out the big club over the next 3-4 seasons.
===============================================================================
1. Rick Porcello | Stats | Depot Grade: A-
6-5 / 200 | Age - 20 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1) | West Orange HS
(NJ)
Floor: Back-end | Ceiling: Front-end Starter | Projection: #2 Starter
Notes: The highly touted 2007 draftee debuted in the Florida State League and
did everything but post dominant strikeout numbers. Hitters grounded out in
64.1% of their at bats against the young righty and batted a paltry .242
against him in his 24 starts. Porcello was impressive in his consistency,
working like clockwork into the through five innings (and fading
thereabouts), totaling over 125 IP in his first season. His front-end stuff
is anchored by a mid-90s fastball with plus-boring action. Even more
impressive, however, is his pair of breakings balls, each of which are
effective both in and out of the zone. His slider comes with hard, late bite
while his curve is a big breaker that changes the batter’s eye-level. His
fourth offering is a changeup that Detroit had him focus on in 2008. He’s
made steady progress and has greatly improved his arm action with the pitch.
While some scouting services have been turned-off by his K-rate, dropping him
behind some of the breakout arms of 2008, we aren’t too concerned. Detroit
should let him cut loose in 2009 at AA Erie. Porcello still projects as a
front-end starter -- with refinement and improved endurance, he could be a
true ace.
2. Ryan Perry | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-4 / 200 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1) | University of
Arizona
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief
Notes: Perry was the first of several power arms selected in last year’s
amateur draft profiling best as late-inning relievers. The former Wildcat
pairs two power offerings and a solid change-of-pace pitch in his changeup.
His fastball sits comfortably in the mid-90s, touching the uppers and
straightening a bit as it does. His slider comes with solid depth and
plus-late bite, though he’s inconsistent with his command of the pitch. He
throws his changeup with solid arm action, though he likely won’t need to
rely on it much in relief. Perry has the presence and the mentality for
late-inning work, but he’ll need to improve his fastball command in the
zone, even with his velocity. He’ll likely start 2009 at AA and could log
innings in Detroit before the season is over.
3. Cody Satterwhite | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-4 / 205 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R2) | University of
Mississippi
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief
Notes: The Ole Miss alum was the second selection for Detroit in the 2008
amateur draft, directly after Perry. Like Perry, Satterwhite boasts a mid-90s
fastball and a slider/changeup combo as secondary offerings. His slider and
change are not as refined as Perry’s -- each lacking consistency (slider in
its shape and change in its release point/arm speed). Satterwhite is armed
with the raw stuff to close at the Major League level, but he’ll need to
improve his command and refine his secondary stuff. He could open at either
HiA or AA and, like Perry, could figure into the Detroit pen at some point
this season.
4. Brett Jacobson | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-6 / 205 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R4) | Vanderbilt
University
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Late-inning Relief
Notes: The last of four college arms selected in the first four picks of last
year’s amateur draft, Jacobson had arguably the most impressive showing in
limited action last summer. His fastball doesn’t have quite the velocity of
Perry or Satterwhite, but it comes with solid boring action. His slider is an
inconsistent second offering that flashes average depth; his curve sits in
upper-70s to low-80s with hard late bite. His changeup is a solid offspeed
that flashes plus-tumble with good arm speed and fringy command. Jacobson
generally shows solid command with his fastball and breaking balls, pounding
the strikezone and challenging hitters. He’ll likely start this year in HiA
and, like his fellow top 4 ’08 draftees, could move quickly through the
system.
5. Cale Iorg | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-2 / 185 | Age - 23 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R6) | University of
Alabama
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG SS | Projection: AVG SS
Notes: Though the Tigers appear to still be quite high on the young
shortstop, Iorg’s bandwagon is shrinking by the day outside of the
organization. The 2007 draftee is still raw at the plate, struggling with his
approach and strikezone command. Defensively, Iorg provides solid value at a
premium position, showing good footwork around the bag and on his pivots. He
ranges well up-the-middle and to the hole and utilizes a solid transfer to
get rid of the ball quickly. If he’s able to square-up more consistently in
2009 he could see his stock and prospect status rise quickly. If he continues
to flounder with the bat, even the organizational supporters may need to
question whether or not there is indeed a future for Iorg as a Major League
regular. The Tigers could bump him up to AA to get him out of the cavernous
Florida State League in hopes of jumpstarting his offensive production.
6. Casey Crosby | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-5 / 200 | Age - 20 | LHP | B/T - R/L | Drafted - 2007 (R5) | Maple Park HS
(IL)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: Another power arm, Crosby sits in the mid-90s with his fastball,
shedding around 3-4 mph when he goes with his 2-seamer to get more life. His
change is an effective second offering, generally sitting around 10 mph
slower than his 4-seamer. Both of his breaking balls are fringy, though he
showed a bit more consistent shape with his slider in 2008. Already a
recipient of Tommy John surgery, the Tigers will likely play it cautiously
with the lefty, monitoring his progress closely. He has a durable frame, but
will need to improve one of his breaking balls to give batters another look
if he is to remain a starter. Worst case, his FB/CH combo should play well in
relief.
7. Scott Sizemore | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-0 / 185 | Age - 23 | 2B | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R5) | Virginia
Commonwealth University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG 2B | Projection: Below-AVG 2B
Notes: Sizemore is the negative of Iorg, showing a good approach at the plate
and fringy defense. The second-baseman utilizes a compact stroke and good
hands to consistently center the ball. He’s also capable of using the whole
field, adjusting well to offspeed stuff and showing solid plate discipline.
In the field, Sizemore is limited to second base due to his fringe-average
range. His arm is also a tick below-average. To his credit, he handles
himself well around the bag, though he needs a quick transfer in order to
make-up for his arm. A broken hamate bone limited his action in 2008. Detroit
could start him back in HiA or push him to AA where he’d likely pair-up with
Iorg up-the-middle.
8. Dusty Ryan | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-4 / 220 | Age - 24 | C | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2003 (R48) | Merced JC (CA)
Floor: Back-up C | Ceiling: Above-AVG C | Projection: AVG C
Notes: Ryan’s ranking has more to do with the questionable depth in-system
than it does his past performance. Ryan opened a streaky 2008 season on fire
with AA Erie and closed the season on fire with AAA Toledo. The middle three
months, however, were less than spectacular as he struggled to maintain a
consistent level of production. His swing is decent, though he’s likely to
remain a streaky producer given the limited amount of time his bat spends in
the zone. He’s got some pop, as well, and could profile to average power if
he can improve his contact rate. Defensively, Ryan is adequate in his
mobility behind the plate. His transfer isn’t great but this shortcoming is
ultimately negated by his strong and accurate arm. He was in line to compete
for the starting job in Detroit before Laird was acquired. Now, he’ll likely
head back to Toledo to log reps and try to improve his approach.
9. Jeff Larish | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 200 | Age - 26 | 1B/3B | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2005 (R5) | Arizona
State University
Floor: Below-AVG 1B | Ceiling: AVG 3B | Projection: Below-AVG 3B
Notes: Larish's strength is plus-hands at the plate and above-average power.
He commands the strikezone fairly well, though he can be overly selective,
getting himself behind in the count. As he doesn't square-up well on breaking
balls and offspeed offerings, Larish's selectiveness ultimately leads to a
good number of strikeouts. Defensively, the corner infielder has smooth
movements at first, though Detroit is shifting him back to third base to
accomodate Miguel Cabrera's shift across the diamond. It's likely that Larish
will head to AAA Toledo in order to continue reacquainting himself with the
hot corner. He should be back in Detroit latter this season and likely
profiles best as a #6 hitter.
10. Alex Avila | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
5-11 / 175 | Age - 19 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R3) | Durango HS (NV)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: AVG 3B
Notes: The Alabama backstop is solid across the board without flashing any
true plus tools. At the plate, Avila has a solid approach and shows good
strikezone command. He squares-up well and has already shown the ability to
drive the ball to left (though his power is still quite limited the other
way). He could hit for average as he advances, and profiles best as a
gap-to-gap hitter with occasional homerun pop. Behind the plate Avila moves
well side-to-side and is an adequate receiver. His transfer is solid, helping
his average arm to play-up a little. A well-rounded player without any
glaring holes in his game, Avila could reasonably progress quickly enough to
compete for a job in Detroit around 2011. Unless he shows a greater ability
to use the whole field or he can mold himself into an advanced defensive
catcher, he’ll profile more to a back-up role than an everyday player.
11. Wilkin Ramirez | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 200 | Age - 23 | OF | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2003 | Dominican Republic
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG LF | Projection: 4th OF
Notes: Ramirez is a tricky case of high potential with the deck stacked
against him. It’s easy to get excited about the leverage in his swing, the
gap-to-gap power with homerun pop and his large athletic frame. At this
point, however, he’s still more athlete than baseball player. He has
troubling squaring-up against offspeed stuff and doesn’t show great
instincts in the field or on the basepaths. If things break right, Ramirez
could carve out a role as a regular Major League LF/DH. We’re still
skeptical that he can put it all together; a solid year at AAA Toledo could
help boost his stock and assuage some of our concerns.
12. Brandon Hamilton | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 205 | Age - 20 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2007 (R1s) | Millbrook HS
(TX)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Hamilton was a supplemental first round selection back in 2007 -- the
Tigers first pick after selecting Porcello. The righty brings a low-90s
fastball and a hard low-80s curve with sharp bite and average depth. His
changeup shows solid velo-differential, generally sitting in the upper-70s
and he has flashes good arm speed with the pitch. His command is still raw,
particularly with his fastball in the zone. Because his stuff isn’t
overpowering, he needs to be precise around the plate. As he works to repeat
his delivery and release point, he could see a small bump in velocity and
crisper action with his secondary offerings. Hamilton should be an
interesting arm to watch in 2009 and will likely see significant time in the
HiA Florida State League.
13. Luis Marte | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
5-11 / 170 | Age - 22 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2005 | Dominican Republic
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Though Marte has seen some success thus far in his professional
career, his smallish frame and lack of a true swing-and-miss arsenal may
ultimately prevent him from reaching his mid-rotation ceiling. His fastball
is a consistent low-90s pitch that he pairs with an average low-80s slider.
His changeup serves as a decent change-of-pace pitch, and he throws it with
good arm speed out of the same slot as his fastball. Because of his
diminutive size, it’s questionable whether Marte will be able to stand up to
a full season workload as a Major League starter. The fast that he relies
heavily on his slider is also troubling from a durability standpoint. Were he
to shift to the pen, his FB/SL combo could be effective in the late innings
with some improved command in the zone. If he’s to stay a starter,
tightening his changeup and using it more frequently would help alleviate
some of the stress he places on his arm with all those sliders.
14. Scott Green | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-7 / 240 | Age - 23 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R3) | University of
Kentucky
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Late-inning Relief | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: At 6’7”, 240 pounds, Green is an intimidating sight on the mound,
throwing on a steep downward plane. His fastball is a solid above-average
pitch, working the low- to mid-90s with more movement in the 90-92 mph range.
He throws with a lot of effort leading to inconsistencies in his release
point, particularly with his secondary stuff. When on, his slider is a mid-
to upper-80s power offering flashing good tilt. His change flashes average
depth but its effectiveness is limited by his inconsistent arm speed, which
can tip the pitch. If Green can iron out his delivery, his power FB/SL combo
will play well. If he has trouble repeating his release point, he could
struggle to meet his ceiling of a solid late-inning reliever. He’ll get a
shot at HiA in 2009.
15. Casper Wells | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-5 / 250 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1s) | University of
Mississippi
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #5 Starter
Notes: After a slowish start at LoA West Michigan, Wells found his grove at
AA Erie, posting a line of .288/.373/.592 over his two and a half month
stint. He has a solid approach at the plate with improving strikezone
command. He still struggles with pitch-ID and with squaring-up against
breaking/offspeed stuff. There is some pop in his swing, though it’s
primarily to the pull side. Defensively, Wells moves well in the outfield
covering the gaps. He takes solid routes and has enough arm to hold down
right field. Wells profiles best as a 4th OF that can shift between the three
outfield spots, DH and first base -- a four starts a week kind of player.
With another strong showing in 2009, he could start to work his way into
consideration for a future starting role. He’ll need to improve his ability
to center on secondary stuff and drive the ball the other way.
16. Robert Weinhardt | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 205 | Age - 23 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R10) | Oklahoma
State University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Late-inning Relief | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: The former Oklahoma State righty sits in the low-90s with a straight
fastball, mixing-in an upper-80s two-seamer with some late life. His breaking
ball is an inconsistent slider that saucers up the zone when he doesn’t keep
on top of it. Weinhardt’s best secondary offering is probably a solid
changeup that flashes plus-tumble and comes with deceptive arm speed. The
sturdy righty breezed through 42 innings of relief work between Rookie ball
and HiA Jupiter, striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP while maintaining a
3.69 SO/BB rate. AA Erie should be a good test for 2008 draftee, as he lacks
true put-away stuff, relying mostly on his advanced pitchability.
17. Anthony Shawler | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-3 / 190 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R9) | Old Dominion
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Back-end Starter | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Shawler has a durable frame and average stuff, profiling as a back-end
innings eater. His fastball sits in the upper-80s, occasionally touching the
90-92 range. His breaking ball is an average slider that flashes late bite
and above-average depth. He vacillates between using a splitter and a change
as a change-of-pace pitch, neither of which is particularly special. While he
threw out of the pen in 2008, he should break the rotation at LoA West
Michigan in his first full professional season where he’ll focus on getting
more consistent action on his slider and better arm action on his offspeed
offerings (which hopefully will add some depth).
18. Casey Fien | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 195 | Age - 25 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R20) | California
Polytech Institute
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Late-inning Relief | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Fien is yet another relief arm positioning himself to make an impact
in Detroit over the next season or two. The righty’s primary pitch is a
sinker the sits right around 90-91 mph with late bite. He also comes with a
fringy changeup that he throws with inconsistent arm action. His curveball is
generally in the low-80s and could stand to be tightened, as he tends to hang
it or have it glide when he doesn’t stay on top of it. Keeping an aggressive
approach, Fien pounds the strikezone with his sinker, using his secondary
stuff primarily to try and keep hitters off-balance. In order to reach his
ceiling, Fien will need to refine his CB/CH to give hitters another look. He
could profile anywhere from a seventh-inning arm to a solid set-up man.
19. Brandon Douglas | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-0 / 185 | Age - 23 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R11) | Northern Iowa
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: Below-AVG 2B
Notes: Douglas is a solid bag of tools that could really take off if he
learns to focus his approach at the plate. He’s quick to and through the
ball with plus-hand/eye coordination helping him to center the ball. He has
some leverage in his compact swing; the more he improves his strikezone
command and contact rate, the more frequently he’ll put that swing to good
use wearing-out the gaps. Defensively, Douglas has solid range and an average
arm, though he may fit best at second base, long term. His hands are adequate
but unspectacular, though he handles himself well around the bag. Douglas
could hold his own at AA, but with Iorg and Sizemore likely destined for
Erie, he could be ticketed for HiA instead to start the year.
20. Rudy Darrow | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
5-10 / 180 | Age - 24 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R32) | Nicholls
State University
Floor: Middle-relief | Ceiling: Late-inning Relief | Projection: Late-inning
Relief
Notes: Darrow has now logged 110.7 IP in his professional career and has
maintained an impressive GB% of 73.2% and SO/9 IP rate of 8.30. The former
thirty-second round selection throws a heavy fastball in the low- to mid-90s
range, causing hitters to consistently drive the ball into the ground. His
slider is still an inconsistent offering, though it has the makings of a
plus-pitch if he can learn to command it effectively down in the zone. His
change is unimpressive and serves primarily as a show-me pitch thus far.
Darrow’s a bit undersized, but has the makings of a late-inning arm if he
can continue to refine his command. He’ll need a more consistent breaking
ball, as well, at the upper-levels. He’ll likely return to AA Erie to start
the 2009 season.
===============================================================================
10 More Prospects to Watch
Mauricio Robles
Clete Thomas
Jade Todd
Andy Dirks
Michael Hollimon
Kyle Bloom
Jonathan Kibler
Ryan Strieby
Freddy Dolsi
Jonah Nickerson
Organizational Leaders:
Hitting – Scott Sizemore
Power – Ryan Strieby
Defense – Cale Iorg
RHSP – Rick Porcello
LHSP – Casey Crosby
Future RP – Ryan Perry
2009 Breakout Candidates:
Pitcher – Jade Todd
Hitter – Brandon Douglas
Bounce-back Candidate:
Freddy Dolsi
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