Re: NAR - Justin Upton

看板Diamondbacks作者abc12812 (abc12812)時間17年前 (2008/03/19 14:21)推噓1(1推 0噓 1→)

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試著翻譯一下請大大們不吝指教 ※ 引述《jparry (可以丟了)》之銘言： : 輪到狀元郎了 : http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/3/17/16294/6319 : 如果仍是新秀的話會排在第一 Justin Upton was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2005, the first overall pick, out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia. He was a renowned amateur player and the younger brother of B.J. Upton, himself an exceptional prospect. Scouts loved B.J, and most of them thought that Justin could be even better. He didn't sign until January 2006 but I gave him a Grade A- in the 2006 book anyway, based on his scouting reports. Justin Upton是響尾蛇隊在2005年以狀元籤選上的。一個從Chesapeake, Virginia地區來的高中生(學校:Great Bridge)。他是一位著名的業餘球員，同時也是另一位優秀新秀 B.J. Upton的弟弟。球探們喜歡B.J，而Justin則被認為比他的哥哥更優秀。他直到2006年 1月才簽約，但我還是在2006年的書中將他評為Grade A-，根據他的球探報告。 Assigned to South Bend in the Midwest League for '06, Upton had a somewhat disappointing season. He hit .263/.343/.413 with 12 homers and 15 steals, which is actually not bad at all for the Midwest League, well-known for cold weather and poor hitting environments. His OPS came out OK at +10 percent compared to league, and his Secondary Average was good at +31 percent. He continued to impress scouts with his tools, although some felt he was just coasting, questioning his work ethic, especially early in the season. His makeup was previously considered to be excellent. I gave him a Grade A- in the 2007 book, still considering him an elite prospect but watching to see if the work ethic issue got better or got worse. 2006年Upton從South Bend出發，打出一個有些讓人失望的球季。成績是.263/.343/.413 12支大支的和15次盜壘。事實上，這樣的成績並不算差，畢竟Midwest League的溼冷天氣讓打者有些難以發揮。他的OPS比聯盟平均高了10趴，Secondary Average則是高了31趴 (聯盟平均:.253/.325/.365)球探們還是喜歡他的工具，但有些人覺得他只是隨便打打，工作態度有些問題，特別是在開季的時候。他的整體條件還是很棒。我在2007年的書中給他 Grade A-，認為他還是一個優異的年輕人，但是態度方面的問題還要再觀察。 Upton began 2007 at Visalia in the California League, tearing it apart with a .341/.433/.540 mark in 32 games. Promoted to Double-A Mobile, he continued crushing the ball, hitting .309/.399/.556 with 13 homers. He combined to steal 19 bases between the two levels. The work ethic problem was apparently not a long-term issue, as he appeared to learn from 2006. Promoted to the majors, he hit just .221/.283/.364 in 43 games and is no longer a technical rookie. However, given his extreme young age his shaky major league numbers don't really concern me. If he was still technically a prospect I'd have him as Number One on my list. 2007年Upton從Visalia開始，在32場比賽中打出.341/.433/.540。接下來，升上2A後依舊火熱，打出.309/.399/.556外帶13支全壘打。在兩個層級的聯盟中總共盜壘19次。工作態度顯然不是個長時間的問題，看來他在2006年球季有學到教訓。升上大聯盟後，Upton在 43場比賽中打出.221/.283/.364，同時也喪失了規則上的新秀資格。假如他還保留新秀資格的話，他會是我今年的頭號新秀。 I think all Upton really needs to thrive is more experience. From a purely player development perspective, I would love it if he would get a season of Triple-A under his belt to make final adjustments in his game, then stick him in the majors as a regular in 2009 at the age of 21. That would be my ideal. But I'm generally conservative about promoting prospects, and the Diamondbacks are going to go ahead and use him as the everyday right fielder this year by all accounts. It's not what I would do, but they didn't ask me. 我想現在Upton需要的只是更多的經驗。從一個純粹球員發展的觀點，我會希望他先在3A 多打一些比賽做調整，然後在2009年讓他當先發外野手。這只是我的想法，however，我對於球員的升級一直是比較保守的。顯然響尾蛇隊希望早一點就讓Upton擔任先發右外野。 What can we expect? Short run predictions for 2008 James: .278/.353/.496 Shandler: .270/.344/.467 ZIPS: .248/.313/.404 Weighted Mean PECOTA: .271/.349/.471 Me: .259/.325/.429. 一些預測: James: .278/.353/.496 Shandler: .270/.344/.467 ZIPS: .248/.313/.404 Weighted Mean PECOTA: .271/.349/.471 Me: .259/.325/.429. Three very similar, ZIPS the outlier. I'm not as optimistic as James, Shandler, and PECOTA, as I think he needs more adjustment time and the short-term performance might be rather mediocre. PECOTA comps are interesting. Delmon Young is the top one, B.J. Upton second. Other names on the list are a mixture of stars, decent players, and busts: Adrian Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, Ben Grieve, Chad Hermansen (scary!), Dee Brown (double-scary), Ken Griffey Jr (very nice), Shawn Green, Vernon Wells. PECOTA thinks that Upton could be excellent, but that he isn't a sure thing quite yet. In the long run, I think Upton will be on the upper end of those expectations, perhaps not quite Ken Griffey Jr-in-his-prime good but not far from that. As long as he keeps his head on straight, and doesn't have some sort of catastrophic injury, I think he'll live up to what people expect of him. 除了ZIPS之外其他三都很一致。我不像James, Shandler, PECOTA,那樣樂觀。我認為Upton 還有些地方需要調整，所以短期內成績應該不會太好。 PECOTA的比較很有趣，Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, 然後是其他人Adrian Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, Ben Grieve, Chad Hermansen(抖!), Dee Brown(抖抖!!), Ken Griffey Jr (很棒), Shawn Green, Vernon Wells。PECOTA認為Upton有可能會變成很棒的球員，但現在一切都還不確定。長時間看來，我認為Upton可以表現的比上面的預測都還好，也許還不到Ken Griffey Jr全盛時期那樣恐怖但也不遠了。只要他持續成長、不要有重大的傷病問題，我想他應該可以成為大家期待中的「那個人」。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3