Re: Five Questions: Arizona Diamondbacks

看板Diamondbacks作者abc12812 (abc12812)時間17年前 (2008/04/02 10:25)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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補上剩下的部份 ※ 引述《abc12812 (abc12812)》之銘言： : http://tinyurl.com/3dr5sj : by Jim McLennan 3. Can the bullpen be as dominant again? In a word, no. Valverde: 2008 ERA+ 177; career ERA+ 141. Lyon: 176/105. Pena: 144/121. Cruz: 152/105. All four main relievers were pitching well over their heads, and while coach Bryan Price deserves a lot of credit, it would be wise to expect some kind of regression to the mean in 2008. That is perhaps most true for Lyon, who avoided home runs almost entirely (not allowing any until July 20) and ended with just two in 74 innings, compared to a previous career rate of about one every seven innings. The departure of Valverde to Houston means Lyon will be the closer, though many people expect him to be replaced by Tony Pena before very long (and certainly by 2009, as this is Lyon's last year under contract). This is not to say that the bullpen will be a liability, and with the addition of Chad Qualls it still figures to have four above-average arms. (First-round pick Max Scherzer may see action later on, albeit only if the Diamondbacks decide he won't work as a starter.) While Melvin rolls the lineup dice on almost a daily basis, he prefers to employ his relief corps in well-defined roles, so expect Cruz to pitch the sixth and Qualls the seventh, with the ball being handed to Pena for the eighth and then finally over to Lyon. That pattern worked extremely well last season, and if the starters can go deep into games, we'll see it used again in 2008. It'd be a lot less nerve-wracking for fans if the offense can help reduce the number of one-run leads they have to preserve, since the odd bump in the road is inevitable. 3.牛棚還會像去年一樣威猛嗎？不會。Valverde、Lyon、Pena、Cruz，這四個人去年的表現都遠超過生涯平均，因此今年他們表現下滑的可能性比較大。特別是Lyon，去年整季只被打了兩支全壘打，但生涯平均每七局就會有一支。Lyon今年會是隊上的終結者，雖然說很多人預期他很快就會被Pena取代。這並不是說今年的牛棚會表現不佳。在Qualls加入後，牛棚還是會有四位高於平均的投手 (Max Scherzer也有可能會加入)。雖然說Melvin喜歡亂排打線，但他對牛棚卻是分工明確。未來的勝利方程式還是會和過去相似:Cruz-Qualls-Pena-Lyon。這方法在去年很管用，而如果今年的先發投手還是一樣耐操，這樣的贏球模式還是會持續。如果今年的火力能有所提升，牛棚的壓力將會大為減輕。(還有球迷的壓力) 4. Dan Haren: ace, No. 2 stopper, or mid-rotation starter? The perception is that the D-backs sold the farm to get Haren. In their defense, though, said farm was somewhat superfluous, with every position player bar Orlando Hudson being under their control through at least 2010. Over the last three years, among the pitchers with 400 innings (already a fairly elite club with only 90 members), Haren's ERA+ of 119 ranks 21st, ahead of that of aces like Penny and Beckett. In 2007, Haren had a phenomenal first half: It took 18 outings for his ERA to go above 2.00, and he was the starter for the AL in the All-Star game. He hit a rough patch in early September, but he still set a new career low for ERA and new high for strikeouts. Haren has now moved to the NL, and he will face pitchers, not the DH. That's good. But he has now also moved to a much more hitter-friendly park, and his above-average HR/9 (1.10 over the past three years) is potentially troublesome in Chase. It's difficult to say which of these factors will have a greater impact on Haren's performance in 2008, though if he is as good as he was early last year, it probably doesn't matter. That said, my expectations are not quite so high. Webb will remain the staff ace, but Haren will give the Diamondbacks a 1-2 punch that is likely unrivaled in the National League (with all due respect to Johan and Pedro). And following behind that pair will be a certain five-time Cy Young winner... 4.Dan Haren是怎樣的投手？在過去三年投滿400局的投手中，Haren的ERA+為119，排名21，高過Penny和Beckett。07年對Haren來說是美好的一年：開季的超低防禦率、明星賽先發。雖然在九月陷入低潮，但在防禦率和三振還是創下個人的生涯新高。來到國聯後，Haren將會面對沒有DH的打線，但Chase　Field是有名的打擊球場，而Haren 是偏向飛球型的投手。目前還看不太出來這兩樣因素的影響力有多少，但只要他的狀況和去年一樣，Haren和Webb將會組成國聯最強的1-2號。然後接下來還有一位五屆賽揚獎投手... 5. Will Randy, and his back, bounce back? This was question No. 1 last year, and we know how that worked out, though reviewing what I wrote then, I did mention that last year's Hardball Times Annual predicted an ERA for Johnson of 3.70 ERA, credibly close to the eventual figure of 3.81 in ten starts. (By the way, the expectation from this year's book is a 3.84 ERA and 119 innings.) This season, Johnson has had longer to rehab from the surgery, and he described how he feels as "night and day" compared to 2007. It was apparently a different kind of procedure—more serious and invasive, but intended to resolve the issue permanently. So the previous relapse does not necessarily mean that the same will happen in 2008. Certainly, Johnson showed on occasion last year that he could be extremely effective, such as one-hitting the Rockies for six innings at Coors Field on May 15. Overall, he struck out 72 in 56.2 innings with just 13 walks, and he held left-handers to a minute .182 average. He clearly had something left in the tank. Still, he's now one year older, and only one pitcher his age has reached 10 wins since Nolan Ryan did so in 1991. But Jamie Moyer's 14 victories last year showed it can be done. And—to reword marginally what I said last year—if you had to pick one 44-year-old as a pitcher to whom you should hitch a franchise's fortunes, there's probably nobody better for the job than RJ. 5.Randy Johnson會回來嗎？這是去年最大的問題，而我們都知道結果如何。去年ＴＨＴ對他的預測是防禦率3.70，而巨怪去年的成績是10次先發，防禦率3.84。今年Randy Johnson有更多的時間復健，而他似乎試想本去年的問題一勞永逸的解決，所以今年應該不會像去年一樣舊傷復發。去年Johnson的成績顯示他還是相當有威力的投手：6局1安打比賽，72 K/ 56 IP。然而，他又老一歲了，自1991年的Nolan Ryan以來只有一個人可以在44歲時超過10勝。但Jamie Moyer的14勝顯示這個障礙還是可以被克服的。還有，就像我去年說的，如果你要把全部的籌碼壓在一個44歲的老人身上，Randy Johnson會是你最好的選擇。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.7.59