[翻譯] The Mark Reynolds problem

看板FBaseball (Fantasy Baseball)作者jdtrue (練習微笑每一次)時間16年前 (2009/06/21 04:41)推噓17(17推 0噓 4→)

留言21則, 15人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

The Mark Reynolds problem By Andy Behrens Fri Jun 19, 2009 1:57 pm EDT And no, the problem we're referring to isn't defense and it's not specifically the Ks. Everyone understands that Mark Reynolds(notes) has certain blemishes. 不，我說的不是防守，也不是指三振數。每個人都知道Reynolds有這些缺點。 The problem -- and it's not a terrible one for fantasy owners -- is that Reynolds has significantly outperformed even the most aggressive preseason projections. (Bill James forecast a 101-32-105-10 line; Reynolds is on a 108-44-116-32 pace). He's currently the No. 13 overall player in the Yahoo! ranks, yet his average draft position was 204.7. There's a buy/sell/hold decision to make. 我要說的是，喔對FB擁有者來說當然不是壞事啦，就是Reynolds顯然表現得超過預估的水準，即使是那些最扯的預估也是一樣。(Bill James預估是101R-32HR-105RBI-10SB ,而Reynolds現在正在往108R-44HR-116RBI-32SB的路上前進。)他現在在FB的排名是 overall 13位，但他的平均draft順位是204.7。所以這時候就是考慮要買/賣/抓著的時候了。 Reynolds is an outlier in all sorts of ways. He and Jayson Werth(notes) are the only players in the N.L. who've reached double-digits in both homers and steals. Reynolds leads the league in standard home run distance according to Hit Tracker; the typical Reynolds bomb travels 417.5 feet. His homer-per-flyball rate is 27.7 percent, the third highest in baseball. 不管我們怎麼去排序，Reynolds現在都是表現非常傑出的一位。他跟Jayson Werth是國聯現在唯二全壘打跟盜壘都達兩位數的球員。Reynolds現在在全壘打平均距離+上領先全大聯盟；達到了417.5英呎。他的HR/FB%是27.7%，聯盟第三高。 So he's got a little power. This is something we all knew heading into the season, of course. Reynolds belted 28 homers in 2008. He also swiped 11 bases in 13 attempts last year, so the steals aren't a complete shock, although he rarely burgled in the minors. 所以他是真的有power的。當然，這應該是我們在這一季開打前就知道的事情。Reynolds 在08球季幹了28轟。他去年同樣也在13次嘗試盜壘中成功11次，所以他盜壘這件事並不讓人驚訝，雖然他在小聯盟時幾乎不盜壘的。 The number that really seems impossible is the .275 batting average. Last year, at age 24, Reynolds hit .239 while establishing a new single-season strikeout record (204). Not surprisingly he also posted the league's worst contact-rate (62.3 percent). The strikeouts are still there in '09 (95 in 244 at-bats) and the contact percentage remains low (61.6), but Reynolds' average is suddenly respectable. 真正看來比扯鈴還扯的事情是他那.275的打擊率。去年在他24歲的時候，Reynolds的打擊率是.239同時還創造了單季的被三振次數新記錄-204次。所以不意外的是他同時擁有全聯盟最爛的contact%-62.3%。三振數到了09球季依然如昔(244AB-95K)，而且 contact%同樣保持在超爛的61.6%，但是他的打擊率突然拉高了這麼多。 Why? Because nearly everything the guy puts in play falls for a hit. His current BABIP is .374. That's a remarkable number when you consider the fact that Reynolds has one of the lowest line-drive rates in baseball (14.2 percent). 為啥咧？因為他打出去的球幾乎都變成安打了。他現在的BABIP是.374，這是個相當可觀的數字，考慮到Reynolds擁有全大聯盟前幾低的LD%-14.2%。 Batter Team BABIP LD% GB% FB% Nate McLouth ATL .266 12.6% 42.1% 45.4% Howie Kendrick LAA .269 13.0% 58.2% 28.8% Jermaine Dye CWS .291 13.3% 46.7% 40.0% Jose Guillen KC .289 13.4% 45.0% 41.6% Gerald Laird DET .255 13.7% 46.0% 40.3% Jay Bruce CIN .202 14.0% 37.4% 48.6% Ian Kinsler TEX .256 14.0% 31.2% 54.8% Mark Reynolds ARZ .374 14.2% 41.9% 43.9% Alexei Ramirez CWS .268 14.4% 49.5% 36.1% Garrett Atikins COL .216 14.4% 43.7% 42.0% In the table to the left you'll find the ten players who've hit the fewest line-drives as a percentage of total balls-in-play (minimum 200 at-bats). You'll notice that a low BABIP generally accompanies a low LD-rate...with one exception. It's tough to imagine how Reynolds can possibly keep this up, though his career BABIP is actually .357. (Home runs are excluded from BABIP, by the way). 在左邊(我key在上面)的表中，你可以看到這是打出去的球形成平飛球的比例前10低的球員。你也可以發現通常低的BABIP會伴隨著低的LD%出現...只有一個人例外。很難去想像Reynolds可以繼續維持這種數據，儘管他生涯的BABIP其實是.357。 (順道一提，HR是不算在BABIP裡的。) If you think Reynolds will finish the season with an average north of, say, .260, then please share your reasoning in comments. Those of us who overinvested in him back in March are worried about the possibility of total collapse. The fear is that he's Rob Deer. The hope is that he's Adam Dunn 2.0: Stronger, faster, strikeoutier. 如果你認為Reynolds會以高於，比如說，.260的AVG結束這個球季，那麼可以把你的理由在底下的comments跟大家分享。那些三月份在Reynolds身上下大注的玩家擔心他之後全面崩盤的可能性。我說，他最糟有可能是Rob Deer(80年代一個著名的free swinger 生涯打擊率.220 連續8年20+HR 生涯230HR 600RBI)，最好的話有機會變成 Adam Dunn 2.0加強版：更強壯、更快、被K得也更多。 Were he to maintain something close to his current pace, then Reynolds would be no worse than a second round pick in 2010 drafts. That's how useful he's been. He's the most valuable third baseman for fantasy purposes year-to-date, just ahead of Evan Longoria(notes) (14) and David Wright(notes) (20) in Y! rank. 假設他維持譬如現在這種產能的話，那Reynolds在明年2010年的FB選秀不會低於第二輪。因為他就是這麼好用。從現在成績去推估的話，他現在是整個FB裡價值最高的三壘手，剛好排在Longoria(14)和David Wright(20)的前面。 So...are you optimistic about his next 90 games? Or did the Reynolds market peak with the home run off Zack Greinke(notes) on Wednesday? It's important that we settle this today. Trade offers are pending... 所以...你現在對他接下來的90場比賽還感到樂觀嗎？或者覺得Reynolds在禮拜四轟了 Zack Greinke一發全壘打之後市場價值已經到了頂點？所以我們今天講這個才這麼重要阿。交易正在等待pending... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.217.25 ※ 編輯: jdtrue 來自: 140.112.217.25 (06/21 04:48)

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