[轉錄][翻譯]2006NCAA球員在NBA的成功率
※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板]
作者: jerry7603 (AI) 看板: NBA
標題: [翻譯]2006NCAA球員在NBA的成功率
時間: Mon Sep 3 04:22:07 2007
因為之前還蠻多人在討論NCAA球員在NBA的生涯，所以把之前在82games看到覺得不錯的
文章翻譯了一下，翻的不好請見諒和指正，我第一次翻譯啊。m(_ _)m
NCAA PLAYER SUCCESS RATES FOR THE 2006 DRAFT CLASS
2006年NCAA球員在NBA成功的機率。
by Richard Lu, 6/14/06
http://www.82games.com/nbadraft2006.htm
About a week ago, I rented Leon Gast’s follow up to When We Were Kings (great
movie, if you haven’t seen it). It was basketball documentary entitled 1
Love.It was a little disappointing because it tried to do too much in too short a
time frame. However, one line did really stick out to me. Hubie Brown was
addressing some high schoolers at a camp and said, “To make it in The Show,
you have to have either a game or a specialty.”
大約一個禮拜以前，我租借了Leon Gast主導的電影When We Were Kings(很棒的電影，如
果你還不曾看過)。這是一部籃球紀錄片，有少許失望，因為它在太短的時間架構內嘗試
做了太多。然而，其中一片段非常吸引我，Hubie Brown在訓練營中向一些高中生演講，說
：「為了在比賽中成功，你必須擁有勇氣或著專長。」
This quote coupled with my never-ending fascination for the draft inspired me
to do a little study to see if there was a quantifiable way to determine which
college players in this year’s draft had the best chance to succeed in the
NBA.
這些話結合了我對選秀會永無止境的迷戀，激發了我做一些小小的研究，去設想如果有一
些可以計量的方法去測定在今年選秀會上有哪一位大學球員有最大的機會在NBA成功。
So, I decided to compare this group of potential draftees from the NCAA
Division I level and compared them to players in the past using Similarity
Scores. Then from that, I was able to calculate their success rates.
所以，我決定去比較由從NCAA第一級聯盟被選入的潛力股，用與以前相近的評分標準將選
秀的人與現役選手做比較，然後從這些比較中，我可以推測他們成功的機率。
Defining the pool of players posed a small challenge because the three-point
was introduced in the college game in the 1986-87 season. Therefore, I chose
the 1990 draft as the starting point to keep the number of seasons before
1986-87 to a minimum, while making the pool as large as possible. Then, the
2003 draft was the cut off point because it’s still a little too early to
fully evaluate the quality of the 2004 and 2005 drafts. To do that, it takes
three years to get a pretty accurate evaluation.
定義球員群形成一個小小的挑戰，因為三分球在1986-87被引入大學籃球，因此，我選擇
1990的選秀會為為起點，將1986~87年以前的季節數控制在最小值，同時也讓數據的範圍
盡可能的大(這兩句不太會翻XD)，然後，2003年的選秀是分界點，因為要對2004、2005
年的選秀做出完整的評價依然有些太早，做出評價，需要三年以得到較為精準的評斷。
The Similarity Scores were calculated based on fourteen categories,
which are listed below:
Height
Weight
Age
Minutes per Game
Total Games Played
Three-Point Efficiency
Free-Throw Efficiency
Two-Point Efficiency
Assist Rate
Turnover Rate
Rebound per 48 Minutes
Blocks per 48 Minutes
Steals per 48 Minutes
Personal Fouls per 48 Minutes
相似姓評分根據14個項目，列表如下：
身高
體重
年齡
平均上場時間
出賽總場數
三分球命中率
罰球命中率
兩分球命中率
助攻比
失誤比
48分鐘平均籃板
48分鐘平均阻攻
48分鐘平均抄截
48分鐘平均犯規
The maximum score is 1000 and a significant comparison would fall in the range
between 800 and 1000. So, to come up with a success rate, I analyzed every
comparable player that was in that range using Minutes per Game and basic
production metrics like PER as the primary factors and assigned a point value
to them. They are as follows:
最高分是1000分，有意義的比較範圍是在800~1000。所以，為了提出成功率，我分析所有
在這個範圍內可以比較的球員，用平均上場時間和用basic production metrics(這是啥
？救人啊~~@@)的平均來當基本因數並且代表了對球員的個別數值，如下：
Definite All-Star, Elite Level Player (ex. Kidd, Shaq, Iverson)
0.75–Borderline All-Star, Second Tier Player (ex. Abdur-Rahim,Antoin Walker)
0.5–Starter, min. 25 MPG
0.25–Borderline Starter, Bench Player, 15 MPG – 25 MPG
0–Fringe Player (<15 MPG), Bust
絕對的明星球員，菁英球員(EX. Kidd, Shaq, Iverson)。
0.75-介於先發和明星的球員，第二線的球員(EX. Abdur-Rahim,Antoin，囧alker)。
0.5-先發等級，平均上場25分鐘。
0.25-介於先發和替補的球員，平均上場15-25分鐘。
0-聯盟邊界的球員(上場時間少於15分鐘)，垃...垃圾...。(這樣翻好過分(⊙△⊙))
So, first I calculated a player’s Minimum Success Rate by dividing the number
of non-busts by the total number of players in the range, then multiplied by
100. Then, I averaged all the point values to get a Quality Index, which I
used to get the percent chance that a player will end up as a starter or All-
Star.
因此，首先我計算球員最小的成功機率，藉由在這範圍中的所有球員中分隔出不是bust
(不想用傷人的字眼@.@)的球員，然後乘以100。接著，我平均所有個別數值以得到一個
品質(？)指數，用以計算一個球員成最終將成為一個先發球員或是一個明星球員。
One problem I ran into was that some players didn’t have enough comparable
players to get a valid success rate. In those cases, I expanded the range
until I got a large enough group of comparable players.
一個我所遇到的問題是，有些新秀沒有足夠的球員可以比較以得到令人信服的成功機率，
在這些案例中，我擴大範圍，直到我找到足夠多的球員可以比較。
rates for around 100 draft prospects, which should cover almost every college
player who will be picked. One other note, I adjusted the rates to account for
draft position, since a first rounder would have a better chance than a second
rounder. So without further delay, here are the players in the 2006 Draft
Class with the best chance to be starting at the end of their rookie contract.
得自純粹數學上計算的過程，我做了大約100份預測，幾乎包含所以會被選上的大學球員
，另外一點，我由於選秀順位的不同兒調整了機率，因為第一輪被選上的的球員擁有比第
二輪球員更好的機會。那麼，事不宜遲，這就是2006梯走完新人約後誰會有最好的開始：
(到這裡都是廢話。◎△◎。)
1. Ronnie Brewer, SG, Arkansas
% Chance to Start – 61.40%
Was similar to: Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Michael Finley
This draft isn’t as strong at the top as it has been in the last few years.
But if any player is going to develop into an All-Star, it will most likely be
Brewer. He has almost every factor going in his favor. He's very athletic with
an NBA body, so he can physically handle the league. On the court, he can
pretty much do everything with the only question mark being the funky release
on his shot. It probably cannot be corrected because it stems from a childhood
accident, but it does go in with some regularity. From an intangibles
perspective, there should be no questions as he’s had no off-the-court
problems. Also, he’s been around the game his whole life, since his father,
Ron Brewer was an eight year vet.
這一年的選秀並不如前幾年那麼深厚，但如果有人要成為明星球員，Brewer絕對是最有
可能的。他幾乎具備所有成功的元素，他擁有NBA級的運動能力，所以可以完全的適應聯
盟。在場上他幾乎可以做到任何事，他怪異的投球姿勢可能是唯一的疑問。這從幼時養
成的習慣大概無法被改正，代表他也有已養成規律的投籃習慣的優點。場下的問題在他
身上也不會發生。來自於他打過八年職業籃球的父親，他的生命中充滿著籃球。
(呃..不過他上場時間好像不太多...有沒有一向都超熱情的阿爵願意介紹一下的XD。)
2. Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut
% Chance to Start – 56.71%
Was similar to: Jared Jeffries, DerMarr Johnson, Ron Artest
Gay’s ceiling may not be as high scouts would like to believe. He has a lot
of skills, but his defense seems to be ahead of his offense at this point. He
issimilar to Brewer in that he is versatile with a wide range of skills.
However,Brewer’s success rate is higher because he holds a significant advantage
in the areas of ball-handling and decision-making. Scouts have questioned his
assertiveness, but it’s probably a result of unreasonable expectations more
than anything.His stats and behavior don’t indicate that he will be number
one player. But, he does have great tools, so that will allow him to stick and
be very effective in a complimentary role.
Gay或許並不像球探們想的那麼好。他擁有許多技巧但目前他的防守比他的進攻要好
，他和Brewer一樣，全能且有著多方面的技巧。然而，Brewer比他更有可能成功的原因
在於他的控球能力和在場上的判斷，球探們對他的自信有著疑問，但那或許是因為對他
有著不合理的過高期待所產生的結果，從他的數據和行為中並沒有他會成為最好球員的
跡象，但他有著相當好的技術，讓他可以在聯盟生存，病在球隊中扮演成為一個相當不
錯的角色。
(記得05年時一度是狀元的不二人選....)
3. Shelden Williams, PF, Duke
% Chance to Start – 41.35%
Was similar to: Othella Harrington, Malik Rose, Alonzo Mourning
Shelden Williams is the safest pure big man in the draft. He’s an efficient
low post scorer and excels on the defensive end. But he’s 22 and history has
shown that players at this age don’t experience a lot of major development.
So, he’s pretty much a finished product. Even so, he will most likely be
pretty effective as a fifth wheel type role player.
Shelden Williams是這次選秀會上，純大個子中最安全的選擇。他是個極有效率的低位
得分者，在防守端上也表現傑出。但是他已經22歲了，歷史上顯示，在這個年紀的球員
並不常有大幅度的進步，所以他已經差不多是個完成品。即使如此，他依然會是一個相
不錯的功能性球員。
4. Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky
% Chance to Start – 40.81%
Was similar to: Eric Snow, Jason Kidd, Dee Brown (Boston Celtics, not
IllinoisXDD)
From a statistical perspective, Rondo is the best defensive point guard to
enter the draft since Jason Kidd. His per minute rebound and steal rates are
extraordinarily high for any point guard, much less a guy who’s only about
six-two. From a visual standpoint, he possesses amazing quickness, both
laterally and in straight-line speed. So this will allow him to cut off
penetration and get to the basket, which will be huge key in the NBA nowadays
with the new rules in effect. He does have a questionable jump shot, but he
makes up for it by being a solid decision-maker and by taking good shots.
從數據來看，Rondo是自從Jason Kidd之後，投入選秀的控球後衛裡，防守最好的一位。
每分鐘平均的籃板和抄截都遠高於其他選秀會中的控球後衛，而且他只有6-2。他擁有極
快的速度，不論是橫向移動或是直線移動，這使他可以抄截並且得分，這是現代NBA中重
要的一環。他的跳投非常非常有問題，不過他用當一個能力很強且很值得信任的決策者
和選擇好的出手來彌補。
(超賽的控球阿，之前蠻多人討論的。)
5. Shawne Williams, SF/PF, Memphis
% Chance to Start – 39.60%
Was similar to: Tim Thomas, Robert Horry, Mike Miller
Shawne Williams was most similar to Tim Thomas and that would be a fairly
accurate assessment of his abilities on the court. Like Thomas, Williams can
take players off the dribble, can post smaller defenders and shoot the three.
Defensively, he’s more of a shot blocker than Thomas was at this stage.
However, he does share some Thomas’ more negative qualities like spotty shot
selection and some motivation issues. But, he will probably find a spot in the
league because of his versatility.
Shawne Williams和Tim Thomas非常相像，而這將精準的評估他在球場上的能力。像
Thomas可以運球過人，可以單打比他矮小的球員，也可以投射三分。再同樣年齡時，比
起Thomas它是個更好的阻攻者。然而，他也有Thomas有的缺點，像是投籃的選擇和情緒
問題。不過，由於他的多才多藝，他將能在聯盟找到他的生存空間。
(Tim Thomas！？他好像是少數到了30歲還被說有潛力的人XD)
6. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas
% Chance to Start – 37.63%
Was similar to: Lorenzen Wright, Samaki Walker, Rasheed Wallace
Aldridge is easily the most skilled offensive big man in this draft, but he
grades out as a rather suspect defensive player. His defensive stats indicate
that he is not nearly as active as he should be, considering the fact that he
is very athletic and nearly seven feet tall. Then, from watching him play, he
has a tendency to play soft. This could cause problems if he’s drafted by a
team with a defensive minded coach.
Aldridge是這一次選秀會的高大球員中，在進攻端上最有技巧的，但作為一為防守球員，
他的能力是遭到懷疑的，考慮到他過人的運動能力和7呎的身高，他的防守數據是不及格
的。而且，藉由觀看他的Play，他有點軟。如果挑選中他的球隊，教練是要求防守的
(呃..Nate McMillan相當要求XD。)，那對他來說可能會是個考驗。
(我只知道Shaq有要他讀大學，好像是特別打電話給他的樣子。)
7. Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova
% Chance to Start – 34.88%
Was similar to: T.J. Ford, Steve Francis, Keyon Dooling
Lowry is another penetrating guard like Rondo, but has more question marks on
offense and isn’t anywhere close on defense. Offensively, he doesn’t shoot
the ball very well. It wouldn’t matter so much if he didn’t take a lot of
questionable shots. In addition, his Assist Rate isn’t as high as it supposed
to be for a point guard. Defensively, his stats are good enough, but he does
have a tendency to commit cheap fouls. Most likely, he will end up as a solid
back-up who could provide a team with an energy lift off the bench.
Lowry是另一個和Rondo一樣有著穿透能力的後衛，但他在進攻上被打上比較多問號，同
時在防守上也沒辦法面面俱到。進攻上，他的投籃能力不是很好，但如果他沒有做太多
有問題的出手選擇，這對他影響不大。死外，他的助攻比對一個控球後衛來說並不高，
防守端上，他的數據夠漂亮了，但有時會有些無意義的犯規，可能最後會變成一個替補
一個可以讓整隊的精神振奮的替補。
(上次看到他灌籃，真的屌。)
8. Brandon Roy, SG, Washington
% Chance to Start – 29.00
s similar to: Jim Jackson, Paul Pierce, Antonio Daniels
Statistically, Roy didn’t grade out as high as I would’ve expected.
Offensively, he checks out well by doing most of his damage as a slasher. He
also has sound passing and decision-making skills, which will be an excellent
bonus for the team that drafts him. On defense, he didn’t grade out as well.
He might be more of a stay-at-home defender than a help guy because his steals
and block rates weren’t really high. One concern on the defensive end would
be that he is a little foul prone and with the new rules in place, it could be
a bigger problem.
數據上，Roy沒有達到我的期望，進攻上，他發揮出他所有的破壞力他似乎也有不錯的
傳球能力和判斷能力，那對選他的球隊來說會是個很棒的額外收穫，在防守上，他並沒
有交出成績單，他比較偏向待在禁區的背動的防守者，而不是積極的補防者，因為他的
阻攻和抄截數字不是很高，另一些關於他防守末端的問題是他有一點犯規不夠很的傾向
和NBA的規則(因為和NCAA不同)，這可能會是個大問題。
(沒什麼好說的，ROY就是ROY。)
9. Marcus Williams, PG, Connecticut
% Chance to Start – 24.52%
Was similar to: Jacque Vaughn, Tyronn Lue, Steve Nash(怎麼這三個落
差有點大XDD)
Marcus Williams is first specialist to show up on the list. He’s a specialist
because his only real skill is his ability is passing, everything else is a
little bit spotty. On the positive side, his Assist Rate was the fourth
highest among all players evaluated. On the negative side, his scoring ability
will be a question mark as he isn’t a good athlete or very quick, so he will
have problems getting into the line. This makes his shot selection an even
greater question mark, since his eFG% is only about 45.5%. Defensively, he
always had great shot blockers behind him, so his flaws were hidden. He
probably won’t have that luxury in the pros, so his man defense will be
problem since he is limited athletically.(有沒有搞錯一個比一個長￣▽￣)
Marcus Williams是這份名單中的第一個特例(謝謝j大指正)，他是個特例因為他真正的
有的技巧只有傳球，其他全部都有點二二六六。正面的來看他的助攻比是被評架的球員
中排名第4的。悲觀的看，他的得分能力被打上問號，他不具有很好的運動能力和速度，
所以要上先發可能有一定的難度。他的投籃選擇也被打上問號，因為他的投籃命中率只
有45%。防守上，他身邊一直都有良好的阻攻手，所以他的一些缺點會被隱藏起來。因為
受限於他有限的運動能力，他的盯人防守可能會有問題。
(可是我第一次看到他打NBA我覺得這傢伙真厲害，真不像菜鳥。籃網賺到了XDD)
10. Darius Washington, PG, Memphis
% Chance to Start – 23.38%
Was similar to: Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Maurice Williams
This is the only major surprise on this list. Washington compared favorably to
Gilbert Arenas even though he had a down year at Memphis this year. Like
Arenas, his game is probably more suited to the NBA than to college. His
one-on-one abilities will make him a threat on the offensive end because he
can penetrate, dish and hit the outside shot. He’s held back a bit since he
doesn't seem to understand the game that well. Ideally, he should be drafted
by team like Atlanta in the upper part of the second round. In a place like
that, he would get playing time to develop his skills and be on a team that
will be a patient with his mistakes.
這是這份名單中唯一的大驚奇。Washington被比較為像Gilbert Arenas，即使他他在
Memphis中過了低潮的一年。就像Arenas一樣，他的比賽方式可能比較適合NBA而非NCAA
。他的一對一技巧使他在進攻端上有威脅，因為他可以滲透、傳遞和投射外線，他的
順位比較低是因為他似乎對不賽還不夠了解，理想的狀況下，他可能可以被像老鷹隊這
樣的球隊在第二輪前端被選中。在這樣的地方，他可以有較多的上場時間去磨練他的技巧
，帶給球隊驚奇。(是這意思嗎@@？)
(我...我沒聽過他....誰要介紹一下的，m(_ _)m)
11. Tyrus Thomas, PF, LSU
% Chance to Start – 23.00%
Was similar to: Drew Gooden, Stromile Swift, Antonio McDyess
Thomas is projected by most draft experts as a candidate for the top pick.
However, his upside is not as high as the experts would think. He’s a
phenomenal athlete with great skills on the defensive end. But, he doesn’t
have much of an offensive game, being limited only dunks and put-backs.
History has shown that post players are generally slow to develop their
offensive game.
So the odds are that Thomas will be similar to Stromile Swift being a fifth
wheel or an energy guy off the bench.
Thomas是被許多專家預測在第一順位的人選。然而，他的優勢並沒有像專家們想的那麼
高，在防守端上他是個驚人的運動員，也有很好的技巧。但是，他並沒有很多進攻的手
段，幾乎只有灌籃和補藍。根據過往，這一類的球員在進攻手段上普遍成長的比較緩慢
所以Thomas可能成為像Stromile Swift成為多餘的人(啊？這樣翻嗎？)或是板凳上精
力充沛的人。
先翻到這，爆肝了，來去休息XDD。還有這只是這個作家自己做的一份統計，大家看看就
好，應該不會吵起來吧XDD。
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「你知道嗎？河田剛入學的時候只有165cm。」（..，我只知道我國小畢業就高他3cm了。）
「據說他在一年之內，足足長了25cm。」（喵的咧...，我後來花了六年才長4cm。）
「從後衛打到前鋒，最後主打中鋒。」（從中鋒打到前鋒，最後主打控衛。）
「三種不同位置通通打過，這就是他成為日本高中界最強中鋒的原因。」（我...）
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