Re: [情報] Probabilistic Model of Range, Shorts …

看板Indians作者Anakin (Anakin)時間18年前 (2007/12/25 17:17)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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PMR 是一個相當有參考價值的守備數據，是Baseball Musings的David Pinto 花錢買原始資料做出來的。他在下面這篇文章有解釋他是怎麼計算的，有興趣的可以參考：http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/008270.php 之前先貼了游擊手的PMR，現在把其他部分補齊吧。 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023891.php 首先，這篇文章告訴我們2007年各球隊的防守狀況。 In Actual Predicted Predicted Team Play Outs Outs DER DER Difference Ratio 1 NYY 4511 3103 3041.46 0.688 0.674 0.01364 102.02 2 BOS 4226 2974 2919.61 0.704 0.691 0.01287 101.86 3 CHC 4177 2943 2895.51 0.705 0.693 0.01137 101.64 16 CLE 4548 3112 3107.26 0.684 0.683 0.00104 100.15 28 CWS 4545 3089 3141.16 0.680 0.691 -0.01148 98.34 29 FLA 4491 2962 3039.28 0.660 0.677 -0.01721 97.46 30 TB 4378 2867 2943.31 0.655 0.672 -0.01743 97.41 簡單的說，印地安人隊整體的防守算是中規中矩的，不特別好，也不特別差。 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023901.php 這篇文章則列出了幾名主要投手投球時，他們身後的防守狀況 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio C.C. Sabathia Cle 701 476 465.40 0.679 0.664 102.28 Jake Westbrook Cle 481 329 322.43 0.684 0.670 102.04 Fausto Carmona Cle 654 463 456.92 0.708 0.699 101.33 Paul Byrd Cle 686 465 467.91 0.678 0.682 99.38 Cliff Lee Cle 317 216 218.74 0.681 0.690 98.75 對王建民有興趣的也可以看看這篇文章，他的 ratio是107.97，他所列出來的投手中最高的，他也因此特別分析了更為詳細的狀況。中外野： http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023939.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 25 CLE 4548 413 422.64 0.091 0.093 97.72 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 1 Coco Crisp 3560 408 377.29 0.115 0.106 108.14 2 Ichiro Suzuki 4233 424 394.49 0.100 0.093 107.48 3 Felix Pie 1169 120 112.75 0.103 0.096 106.43 31 Grady Sizemore 4383 399 407.44 0.091 0.093 97.93 40 Corey Patterson 3225 281 298.69 0.087 0.093 94.08 41 Bill Hall 3159 295 314.62 0.093 0.100 93.76 42 Elijah Dukes 1010 82 92.28 0.081 0.091 88.86 右外野： http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023971.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 6 CLE 4548 313 304.41 0.069 0.067 102.82 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 1 Jayson Werth 1389 109 95.35 0.078 0.069 114.32 2 Shane Victorino 2837 229 210.62 0.081 0.074 108.72 3 Nick Swisher 1289 109 101.65 0.085 0.079 107.23 5 Franklin Gutierrez 1757 136 128.55 0.077 0.073 105.79 17 Trot Nixon 2140 129 129.17 0.060 0.060 99.86 33 Jack Cust 1205 79 84.93 0.066 0.070 93.01 34 Brad Hawpe 3851 247 267.07 0.064 0.069 92.48 35 Cliff Floyd 1185 69 78.30 0.058 0.066 88.12 左外野 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023979.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 2 CLE 4548 339 325.23 0.075 0.072 104.23 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 1 Matt Diaz 2064 155 142.05 0.075 0.069 109.11 2 Jose Cruz 1099 89 82.33 0.081 0.075 108.10 3 Joey Gathright 1595 154 142.69 0.097 0.089 107.93 5 David Dellucci 1210 97 91.32 0.080 0.075 106.22 13 Jason Michaels 1567 117 113.59 0.075 0.072 103.00 20 Kenny Lofton 1189 82 82.28 0.069 0.069 99.66 40 Manny Ramirez 2925 182 198.85 0.062 0.068 91.53 41 Chris Duncan 2437 158 175.74 0.065 0.072 89.90 42 Pat Burrell 3176 176 198.31 0.055 0.062 88.75 一壘： http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023986.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 23 CLE 4548 295 307.96 0.065 0.068 95.79 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 1 Doug Mientkiewicz 1427 109 92.24 0.076 0.065 118.17 2 Rich Aurilia 1115 70 59.31 0.063 0.053 118.02 3 Andy Phillips 1325 93 80.91 0.070 0.061 114.95 35 Ryan Garko 3271 209 223.33 0.064 0.068 93.58 41 Scott Hatteberg 2457 144 160.66 0.059 0.065 89.63 42 Nomar Garciaparra 1678 106 118.73 0.063 0.071 89.28 43 Dmitri Young 2808 162 184.81 0.058 0.066 87.66 二壘： http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023941.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 16 CLE 4548 564 557.26 0.124 0.123 101.21 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 1 Brandon Phillips 4288 488 442.09 0.114 0.103 110.38 2 Chase Utley 3571 410 386.97 0.115 0.108 105.95 3 Jose Valentin 1123 154 145.56 0.137 0.130 105.80 9 Josh Barfield 3237 396 381.63 0.122 0.118 103.76 29 Jamey Carroll 1396 165 168.34 0.118 0.121 98.02 40 Ray Durham 3183 320 343.81 0.101 0.108 93.08 41 Craig Biggio 2878 283 308.32 0.098 0.107 91.79 42 Brendan Harris 1206 110 124.59 0.091 0.103 88.29 三壘： http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023949.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 27 CLE 4548 400 421.84 0.088 0.093 94.82 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 1 Ryan Zimmerman 4528 443 398.27 0.098 0.088 111.23 2 Joe Crede 1184 125 113.00 0.106 0.095 110.62 3 Pedro Feliz 3718 373 341.20 0.100 0.092 109.32 37 Casey Blake 3743 325 351.27 0.087 0.094 92.52 39 Miguel Cabrera 4055 330 361.80 0.081 0.089 91.21 40 Ryan Braun 2886 211 239.01 0.073 0.083 88.28 41 Garrett Atkins 4136 305 352.46 0.074 0.085 86.53 捕手的守備工作跟其他的不同，這些資料只佔其中的一小部分，而且樣本數非常少，以下僅供參考 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024018.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 20 CLE 4548 36 37.23 0.008 0.008 96.70 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio Kelly Shoppach 1365 14 12.72 0.010 0.009 110.07 Victor Martinez 3183 22 24.51 0.007 0.008 89.76 投手同理 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024034.php In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio 4 CLE 4548 181 171.92 0.040 0.038 105.28 In Actual Predicted Predicted Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio Jake Westbrook 481 27 24.51 0.056 0.051 110.17 C.C. Sabathia 701 24 22.47 0.034 0.032 106.80 Fausto Carmona 654 36 34.14 0.055 0.052 105.43 Paul Byrd 686 21 23.15 0.031 0.034 90.72 ※ 引述《Anakin (Anakin)》之銘言： : 上面有一個東西叫PMR，全名是probabilistic model of range : 今天David Pinto公布了最新的游擊手PMR : http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/023929.php : 印地安人隊的排名還在前段 : 然後Jhonny Peralta..... : Actual Predicted Predicted : Player In Play Outs Outs DER DER Ratio : 1. Troy Tulowitzki 4294 615 564.54 0.143 0.131 108.94 : 2. Tony F Pena 4010 480 449.44 0.120 0.112 106.80 : 3. Rafael Furcal 3574 473 445.28 0.132 0.125 106.23 : 4. John McDonald 2389 311 294.27 0.130 0.123 105.69 : 5. Jason Bartlett 3631 466 443.58 0.128 0.122 105.05 : 6. Jimmy Rollins 4447 528 511.62 0.119 0.115 103.20 : 7. Jack Wilson 3657 470 457.15 0.129 0.125 102.81 : 8. Yunel Escobar 1116 135 131.47 0.121 0.118 102.69 : 9. Jhonny Peralta 4206 512 502.37 0.122 0.119 101.92 : 10 Omar Vizquel 3739 504 497.76 0.135 0.133 101.25 : 11 Julio Lugo 3592 431 426.14 0.120 0.119 101.14 : 37 Derek Jeter 4117 421 461.63 0.102 0.112 91.20 : 38 Cristian Guzman 1189 117 130.96 0.098 0.110 89.34 : 後面沒有了，38個人可以排進前10耶 -- Tribe Fan In Taiwan http://anakinlai.blogspot.com/ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.230.187.97 ※ 編輯: Anakin 來自: 61.230.187.97 (12/25 17:18)