[外絮] 5 Signs That Jeremy Lin's Ceiling Is H

看板Jeremy_Lin (林書豪)作者mygiita (mygiita)時間13年前 (2012/12/02 16:11)推噓34(34推 0噓 4→)

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http://is.gd/27YdD2 5 Signs That Jeremy Lin's Ceiling Is Higher Than We Thought 五跡象顯示林書豪的上限比我們想像的高 By Josh Martin (NBA Lead Writer) on November 28, 2012 A cursory glance at Jeremy Lin's numbers through the first month of the 2012-13 NBA season would suggest that the Houston Rockets made a mistake. For a noteworthy investment of $25.1 million over three years, the Rockets have thus far seen a player whose scoring and shooting are down, whose rebounds are slightly up and whose assist and turnover stats have held relatively steady, for better or worse. 粗略看過林書豪在2012-13NBA賽季頭一個月的表現數據，會顯示休士頓火箭買錯了。三年 2510萬美元的大手筆，目前卻只見到一位不管得分與命中率雙雙下降，籃板稍微上升，而助攻和失誤尚保持相對穩定的球員。 But to gloss over these early returns and assume that Linsanity was nothing more than a flash in the pan is to ignore the circumstances that often dictate the difference between success and failure in the minds of the NBA's viewing public. As Matt Moore of CBSSports.com recently noted, moving into a new role on a new team in a new city is not a seamless process and often requires a length adjustment period, even for All-Stars like Andre Iguodala. 但以這些季初成績推定林來瘋不過是曇花一現，則是忽略了NBA觀眾心中用以區分成功與失敗的幾項條件。CBSSports.com的Matt Moore最近提到，前往新城市，進新球隊擔任新角色，不會是個一帆風順的過程，經常需要漫長的調整期，連全明星級的Andre Iguodala也不例外。 Lin certainly isn't on Iggy's level, and may never be, which, in a way, makes his seemingly slow acclimation more understandable. Throw in a lethargic recovery from a knee operation that ended Lin's celebrated tenure with the New York Knicks, and the lackluster start, if not excusable, falls well within reason. 林肯定還不到Iggy的水準，或許永遠也達不到，這在某方面來說，使他看似緩慢的適應過程更加能夠理解。加上那道終止尼克林來瘋的膝手術復原速度趨緩，暗淡的季初表現即使不如人意，也在情理之中。 Still, why, amidst all this apparent evidence to the contrary, would anyone think that Lin is anything more than a flash in the pan who's long lost his magical touch? Allow me to explain... 雖有種種明顯的不利證據，為何仍有人認為林不是一位失去魔力的一片歌手?容我道來… Shooting: Nowhere to Go but Up 命中率：逐漸上揚 Our first invocation of the "he's hurt/adjusting to his new digs" explanation comes in relation to Lin's shooting percentages. 關於林還處在適應新角色的陣痛期，我們的第一條解釋與命中率有關。 However you slice it, he's not converting his looks at a particularly pretty rate. Among point guards who average at least 10 minutes a night, Lin ranks 54th (out of 71) in field-goal percentage (.374), 55th in three-point percentage (.256), 57th in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for three-pointers (.408) and 56th in true shooting percentage, which factors in threes and free throws (.460), all per Hoopdata. 不管怎麼分析，林的命中率都不會太好看。每場至少打十分鐘的控衛中，林的投籃命中率 (.374)排名54(共71)；三分球命中率排名55(.256)；有效投籃命中率排名57，三分球列入其中；真實命中率排名56，包含三分球和罰球(.460)。數據引自Hoopdata。 So why, then, would these numbers paint anything but a grim picture? 這些數據難道還不顯得前景暗淡？ For one, we know his stroke ain't broke. He's converting his free throws at an 85.3 percent clip, though he's made 2.8 fewer trips to the stripe per game compared to his sensational stint last season. 首先，我們知道他的準頭還在。他的罰球命中率達85.3%，雖然與上季林來瘋時期相較，每場少罰了2.8球。 Not that he hasn't been attacking the basket. To date, Lin's taken 52.4 percent of his shots at or near the rim (see chart above, courtesy of NBA.com/stats), compared to 52.7 percent last season. His success rate in that region—45.5 percent—is comparable (albeit still troublingly low) to the 48 percent he posted in 2011-12. Those numbers should improve so long as Jeremy stays aggressive and continues to penetrate whenever he can. 他一直有在攻擊籃框。至今，林有52.4%的出手是在籃框旁或籃框附近，上季為52.7%。他在這個區域的成功率(45.5%)與上季的48%相差不遠，雖然還是偏低。那些數據應該會改善，只要Jeremy保持攻擊力，一有機會就滲透禁區。 As for his perimeter shooting, his 28.6 percent mark is also bound to recover. Rahat Huq of ESPN.com wrote on Wednesday that Lin had been working diligently on his shooting and that, in the opinion of Rockets interim coach Kelvin Sampson, he "got his swagger back against New York." Lin shot 6-of-12 from the field against his old team, followed by a 7-of-9 showing opposite the Toronto Raptors. 至於中距離投籃，也從28.6%開始反彈回升。ESPN.com的Raha Huq星期三寫到，林一直在努力練習投籃，據火箭代理教練的說法，林「在打紐約時找回氣勢」。林戰老東家時投12 中6，接著在對抗多倫多暴龍時投9中7。 His percentages, then, should keep climbing as he grows more comfortable taking fewer shots in a relatively reduced role next to James Harden. 他的命中率應會持續上揚，他終將適應出手次數的減少，並在James Harden身邊感到自在。 Dimes Aplenty 助攻頻傳 Sharing a backcourt with James Harden has (rather predictably) left Lin with fewer opportunities to orchestrate his team's offense. According to Basketball Reference, Jeremy has thus far used up 18.6 percent of the Rockets' possessions when he's on the floor, compared to a whopping 28.1 percent with the Knicks last season. The latter number would put Lin on par with a near-All-Star like Brook Lopez, the former with a role player like Brandan Wright. 與James Harde分擔後場，使林減少指揮全隊進攻的機會。根據Basketball Reference， Jeremy迄今在場上的持球時間佔火箭的18.6%，上季效力於尼克時則高達28.1%。後者使林能與準全明星級球員如Brook Lopez並列，前者則接近像Brandan Wright這樣的角色球員。 Yet despite getting fewer touches in seven more minutes per game, Lin's raw assist numbers have held steady, if not ticked slightly upward. He's averaging 6.4 assists through his first 14 games as a Rocket, compared to 6.2 in 35 outings with the Knicks. 雖然每場持球時間少了7分多鐘，林的助攻卻維持穩定，甚至稍微上揚。他在火箭隊的前 14場球平均交出6.4次助攻，在尼克隊的35場球交出6.2次助攻。 That's still good enough for 17th in the NBA, and Lin's only just started to get cozy in Space City. 這足以使林名列NBA第17，而他才開始適應這座太空城市。 To be sure, Lin's stable assist numbers likely have something to do with the shift in systems. He's gone from a Knicks squad that ranked 22nd in helpers per game (19.6) and fifth in pace (93.1 possessions per game) to a more uptempo Rockets squad that ranks eighth in assists at 22.1 and first in pace with 94.9 possessions. 林穩定的助攻表現，肯定和新球隊有關。他從每場助攻排名第22(19.6次)，步調排名第五 (每場93.1次持球)的尼克，換到助攻排名第8(22.1次)，步調排名第1(94.9次)，節奏更快的火箭。 Lin may not be assisting on as high a percentage of Houston's makes (29.3 percent) as he was New York's (41 percent), but he's also not the only one of his teammates who can dish consistently. Harden drops 5.4 dimes a night, and sophomore swingman Chandler Parsons chips in 3.5 of his own. 林佔火箭全隊助攻的比率(29.3%)，或許比不上在尼克時的41%，但他已不是隊中唯一能穩定提供助攻的人。Harden每晚能送出5.4次助攻，二年級生搖擺人Chandler Parsons也能送出3.5次。 Finding the Cornermen 尋找前鋒 It's not just that Jeremy's assisting that counts. It's also how he's assisting that matters in this discussion. 重要的不只是Jeremy的助攻。本篇還要著重探討他如何助攻。 According to NBA.com's stats tool, the Rockets shoot significantly worse in the paint when Lin's on the floor (28 percent) than they do when he's not (42 percent). To be sure, shots in the paint but outside the restricted area aren't necessarily the easiest or most efficient looks. Many teams have shifted their defensive philosophies to crowd the middle of the floor, rendering eight to 12-footers amidst a pack of opponents that much more difficult to hit. 根據NBA.com的統計工具，林在場上時，火箭於禁區內的命中率大幅下降(28%)，遜於林不在場上時的42%。當然，在禁區之內且衝撞區之外投籃，不見得是最容易或最有效率的手段。許多球隊的防守哲學是派重兵駐守中央，想在對手林立的8至12呎處得分變得難上加難。 And considering Lin's still-subpar numbers as a finisher, as noted earlier, this hardly comes as a surprise. 加上先前提到，林的終結能力仍低於標準，這就不難想像了。 To Lin's credit, though, the league's analysis suggests that he's doing a fine job of setting up his teammates for easy shots where he should. With Jeremy on the floor, the Rockets are shooting 58 percent in the restricted area, which is on par with their overall accuracy, and 35 percent from mid-range, which is slightly higher than the team average and significantly higher than their 28 percent sans-Lin clip. 值得讚揚的是，聯盟的分析顯示在為隊友提供輕鬆出手的機會方面，林的表現很不錯。當 Jeremy在場，火箭於衝撞區的命中率達58%，等同於他們的整體準確度；中距離則來到35% ，稍微高過全隊平均值，並遠高於無林在場時的28%。 But the best news for Lin comes from the shift in percentages on the all-important corner three. The Rockets are knocking down the second-most efficient shot in basketball (behind the dunk/layup) at a 40 percent pace with Lin, compared to a paltry 25 percent without him. 林對命中率最大的影響來自底線三分球。在籃球中第二有效率(次於灌籃/上籃)的得分手段方面，有林在場的火箭出手命中率達40%，無林在場則降為25%。 This shouldn't come as too great a shock. Lin routinely does an excellent job of using his quickness to penetrate and collapse the defense, thereby leaving his teammates with wide-open looks from the corners. 這應該不會太令人驚訝。林經常利用他的速度，切入並瓦解對方的防守，從而使底線隊友得到空檔。 So long as he keeps finding them in the right spots, his presence will be of plentiful value to the Rockets. 只要林繼續在對的地方找到隊友，他將是火箭陣中的重要人物。 Fueling the Fastbreak 發動快攻 As mentioned earlier, Lin has benefited from a move away from Mike Woodson's iso-heavy offense to a more uptempo situation in Houston. 正如前述，離開Mike Woodson著重單打的進攻模式，來到步調更快的休士頓，讓林獲益良多。 But were the Rockets really a running team before? And to what extent might Jeremy have changed that? 但火箭之前真的是支跑轟球隊?對此改變，林又有何貢獻? The answer to the first question would best be described as "not exactly." The Rockets were just 11th in pace, 10th in fastbreak scoring and 13th in fastbreak efficiency prior to Lin's arrival. 第一個問題的答案，最好的描述是"不盡然"。在林加入前，火箭的步調排名第11，快攻得分排第10，快攻效率排第13。 As for how (if at all) Lin has altered that reality, consider that Houston now checks in first, fourth and ninth in those respective categories. It would appear, then, as though Lin has played a part in helping the Rockets push the pace and pick up more easy buckets as a result. 至於林如何(如果有)改變這項事實，請想想休士頓如今在前三項數據的排名已來到第1，第4和第9。這似乎顯示林的表現有助於加快火箭的步調，拿下更多輕鬆的分數。 It helps that Jeremy's as good at crashing the boards as he's proven to be. He's tied for fifth among point guards with 4.6 rebounds per game, 3.8 of which have come at the defensive end. By wiping the glass, Lin can often start the break himself, be it with a long outlet pass or a speedy dribble up the court. Jeremy在籃板方面的表現也很有幫助。他以每場4.6個籃板在控衛中並列第五，其中3.8個籃板來自防守端。經由搶下籃板，林經常能自行發動快攻，不管是長傳或快速運球過半場。 Again, it helps to have another ball-handler and scoring threat like Harden with whom to share the backcourt. But even Lin is out-boarding the bigger Bearded One, who's served as a solid finisher on many a Lin pass in the early going. 此外，有了Harden這樣能控球又能得分的好手來分享後場工作，更是大有助益。雖然林的籃板數量多過塊頭更大的鬍子，但鬍子紮實的終結能力經常能不負林的及時妙傳。 Vanquishing Demons 克服心魔 Lin's defense remains a bone of contention—the Rockets allow 3.1 points per 100 possessions more when Lin's on the floor, per NBA.com. 林的防守仍是爭論的焦點。根據NBA.com，有林在場的火箭，每百次持球的失分數多3.1分。 But, to Lin's credit, he's done a solid job of attacking those against whom he has something to prove, at least of late. This past Friday, Lin helped to lead a 131-103 rout of the visiting Knicks. His numbers (13 points, seven rebounds, three assists, one steal) were hardly eye-popping, but he played with a level of confidence that'd rarely been seen this season, and that, apparently, rubbed off rather well onto his teammates. 值得讚揚的是，林在需要證明自己時總能有所表現。這個星期五，林幫助球隊以131比103 擊潰來訪的尼克。他的數據(13分，7籃板，3助攻，1抄截)不甚亮眼，卻展現出本季久違了的自信，而這顯然大大影響了隊友。 For an encore, he outplayed Kyle Lowry, whose job Lin essentially took, in a 117-101 walloping of the Raptors. While Lowry was mired in a relatively subpar performance (seven points on 3-of-10 shooting, eight rebounds, five assists), Lin was busy filling it up as the Art Garfunkel to Harden's Paul Simon. Jeremy ended the evening with 16 points on 7-of-9 shooting, with four rebounds, three steals and 10 assists to boot. 之後，林再次比下被自己搶走飯碗的Kyle Lowry，以117比101痛擊暴龍隊。Lowry的表現失去應有水準(投10中3得7分，8籃板，5助攻)，林則稱職地擔任Harden的好搭檔。林最後投9中7得16分，4籃板，3抄截，外加10助攻。 If Lin continues to play with this same sort of fearlessness, efficiency and self-belief, he'll soon be eschewing any memories of his early-season slump in favor of flashbacks to the salad days of Linsanity. 如果林繼續展現出如此這般的無懼，效率與自信，他將迅速遺忘季初的那段低朝，重現林來瘋的精華片段。 And that $25.1 million contract? For a 24-year-old point guard who's still learning the NBA game, it'll look like a steal. 至於2510萬的合約？以一位還在學習打NBA的24歲控衛來說，算是撿到便宜了。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.33.22.91 ※ 編輯: mygiita 來自: 114.33.22.91 (12/02 16:15) ※ 編輯: mygiita 來自: 114.33.22.91 (12/02 16:18)

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※ 編輯: mygiita 來自: 114.33.22.91 (12/02 16:23)

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