[農場] Twins 2008 Minor League Numbers: Hitters

看板MIN-Twins作者shancko (雅典等等我)時間17年前 (2008/11/06 10:54)推噓5(5推 0噓 4→)

留言9則, 4人參與討論串1/1

棒球季結束了,加上今年冬天應該不會有什麼驚人的變動頂多就等著看看SS跟3B有沒有什麼補強所以我就來灌灌水簡單翻譯一下Aaron Gleeman前天的文章吧原文見http://www.aarongleeman.com/ 時間不多,所以今天先貼一半 Yesterday's entry discussed the importance of putting minor-league performances into proper context based on adjustments for leagues, run-scoring environments, defensive positions, and ages. It also laid out my method for arriving at those context-adjusted numbers, so you'll want to read that before going any further with today's entry, which reveals what putting the 2008 numbers into context shows about the Twins' position-player prospects. Later this week I'll do the same for pitching prospects. 把小聯盟球員的成績放於同一個標準下來討論是重要的，必須考慮到不同聯盟、RS、守位、還有年齡。現在先來看看TWINS農場今年(2008)position-player的表現，投手稍待。 Before getting to the good stuff, please note that these are not my rankings of the Twins' top prospects. That annual list will be published later this offseason and includes both multi-year track records and long-term potential as huge factors, whereas the numbers below focus solely on what each player did this year. The point here is to simply determine who had the best 2008 season by putting everyone's numbers through the same context-adjusting system. 這並不是我的prospects名單，這篇文章單純只是分析各球員在"2008"的成績。 The first step is taking raw numbers and adjusting them for run-scoring environments, with the idea being that everyone should first be placed on an even playing field before evaluating their performance. For example, catching prospect Wilson Ramos hit .288/.346/.434 in 126 games for Fort Myers at high Single-A, which looks relatively mediocre at first glance. However, the Florida State League as a whole batted just .256/.329/.376 while scoring 8.5 combined runs per game in 2008. 第一步必須先將各球員成績的raw number根據所在聯盟的RS做調整，例如Wilson Ramos在 A+的成績為　.288/.346/.434，乍看並不特別，但Fort Myers所在的Florida State League的平均成績為 .256/.329/.376，每場的RS約為8.5分。 The run-scoring environment that Ramos played in this year was almost 10 percent worse for offense than MLB, which is a major part of his unspectacular numbers. Once you normalize the Florida State League to fit the level of offense found in MLB, then Ramos' hitting line improves to .297/.350/.480, which is extremely impressive from a 20-year-old catcher (the average MLB catcher hit .257/.325/.390 in 2008) and does a far better job of showing his outstanding potential than the raw numbers. 這樣的RS成績約只是大聯盟的90%，如果我們把Florida State League的聯盟成績調整到大聯盟的打擊水準，Ramos的成績會變成 .297/.350/.480，這對於一個才20歲的年輕人來說是非常優異的，因為Ｍajor的捕手平均打擊成績為 .257/.325/.390。 Because the Twins' minor-league system is filled with teams playing in low run-scoring environments, normalizing the organization-wide hitting numbers causes most position players to get a Ramos-like boost. Putting hitting prospects in leagues where the average team doesn't even slug .400 will do a lot to skew the perception of their ability and that's the case throughout the Twins' system. Here are the top adjusted 2008 hitting lines from Twins minor leaguers with 200-plus trips to the plate: TWINS的農場皆處於low RS的聯盟，所以hitting prospects的成績常常容易被忽視掉，而只注意到投手的部分，但根據上面講述的原則，我們來看看農場裡超過200PA的球員調整後的成績。 PA AVG OBP SLG OPS Angel Morales 218 .303 .415 .670 1.085 Ben Revere 374 .397 .448 .557 1.005 Evan Bigley 236 .302 .362 .631 .993 Aaron Hicks 204 .332 .411 .574 .985 Jonathan Waltenbury 293 .321 .384 .580 .964 Chris Parmelee 289 .250 .398 .556 .954 Brian Buscher 214 .320 .404 .529 .933 Randy Ruiz 456 .321 .368 .552 .920 Luke Hughes 436 .310 .366 .543 .909 Danny Valencia 538 .316 .365 .535 .900 Alejandro Machado 215 .339 .378 .486 .864 Steven Tolleson 397 .300 .376 .481 .857 Steve Singleton 536 .309 .369 .488 .857 Michael Harrington 276 .268 .357 .486 .843 Garrett Jones 587 .280 .339 .498 .837 Whit Robbins 346 .276 .388 .448 .836 Rene Leveret 244 .301 .370 .464 .834 Wilson Ramos 500 .297 .350 .480 .830 Daniel Ortiz 205 .286 .330 .490 .820 Nicholas Romero 222 .276 .340 .475 .815 Dustin Martin 573 .290 .350 .461 .811 Edward Ovalle 509 .293 .355 .456 .811 Daniel Berg 317 .283 .375 .436 .811 Dominic de la Osa 284 .265 .386 .424 .810 Matt Macri 350 .260 .325 .480 .805 Ben Revere got most of the attention by flirting with .400 for much of the year, but on a per-game basis Angel Morales was actually the Twins' best minor-league hitter this season. Despite being 18 months younger than Revere and six months younger than 2008 first-round pick Aaron Hicks, Morales batted .301/.413/.623 in 54 games at short-season Elizabethton, leading the rookie-level Appalachian League in homers and slugging percentage. Ben Revere無疑是今年最受矚目的球員，BA盤桓於.400很長一段時間，但調整後，我們會發現Angel Morales可能才是TWINS農場中，今年表現最好的球員。他甚至比Revere小一歲半，也比Hicks小半歲，但在Elizabethton的54場比賽中，打出 .301/.413/.623的成績，其中HR跟SLG都領先整個Appalachian新人聯盟。 Morales' numbers are plenty great on their own, but become even better after accounting for the fact that the Appalachian League as a whole hit .262/.331/.387. Slugging .623 in an environment where the average slugging percentage was a measly .387 is equivalent to slugging .670 in an environment with MLB-level offense. Morales' breakout consists of just 218 plate appearances, so there are sample-size issues at play, but an 18-year-old posting an adjusted hitting line of .303/.415/.670 is pretty sick. Morales的原始成績已經是非常好的，但如果你看看整個Appalachian League的平均成績只是 .262/.331/.387，就會發現 .623的SLG是野獸般的可怕，當然，他只有218次的PA，這樣的打擊成績當然會有小樣本數的疑慮，但一個18歲的孩子能繳出 .303/.415/.670(調整後的成績)，仍然是他媽的變態。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.57.234