Re: 2010 Five Questions: Cincinnati Reds

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者shinjyo825 (ㄝ辣)時間15年前 (2010/04/01 23:02)推噓0(0推 0噓 1→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

Nice work！不過有幾句話沒有翻出來，提出一些個人意見。 ※ 引述《outlaw (outlaw)》之銘言： : As a result, the Reds had their ninth consecutive losing season. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : Can they avoid a 10th? It probably all comes down to a few key players. : 09球季的紅人隊修正了長期以來在防守端的糟糕表現， : 不幸的是伴隨著防守端成長的卻是在打擊表現方面的不盡人意, : 也使得紅人連續第九季無法進入季後賽. Justin 的原文比這個還嚴重，他是指連續九年敗多於勝，而不單單僅是無法進入季後賽。 : 他們能夠避免此難堪紀錄邁向雙位數嗎？關鍵將取決於以下幾位球員 : Jay Bruce: Barry Bonds, or Wily Mo Pena? : According to Baseball Reference, Jay Bruce's most similar batters through age ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : 22 are Barry Bonds and Wily Mo Pena, both with a score of 965. In the case of : Bonds, even before the PEDs, we have one of the greatest players ever to play ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : the game. With Pena, we have a player who showed excellent power, but never ~~~~~~~~~ : solved his problems with contact and low walk rates. Which will Bruce be? : 根據BP的統計分析，Jay Bruce至22歲的成長曲線有望長成下一個BB爺或是.... ~~ 這應該您的是筆誤，因為Justin寫的是 BR 而非 BP : Willy Mo Pena : 前者在禁藥風波前或許是我們在棒球場上所擁有的最佳球員，這句話的語意不太對，Justin是指「即使在使用禁藥之前，Bonds依然是場上曾出現過的最偉大球員之一。」 : Pena則曾經展現出優秀的長打能力，卻從未解決過其無法揮中球及低落的保送率等問題， : 那麼未來的周董呢？ : Last year, he looked more like Wily Mo. He slugged 22 homers in 387 plate : appearances, but hit just .223/.303/.470. Many will point to his low BABIP : last year (.221) and say it was all due to bad luck. I'm not so sure. The : biggest concern I have is that his line drive rate was also miserably low ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : last year (13 percent, down from 21 percent in 2009). While line drives may : be a subjective measure, they are also a stable statistic for hitters. My : worry is that it's part of a failure to wait for good pitches; only 46 : percent of Bruce's pitches were in the strike zone last year, down from 48 : percent the year before (the major league average is 51 percent). : 上個球季,儘管在387個打席中夯了22隻全壘打，但.223/.303/.470的打擊三圍則讓 : Jay Bruce的發展顯得Willy Mo Pena化， : 大多數分析將其歸因於低到不行的BABIP(.221)以及壞運氣 : 但我對其的最大質疑則來自Bruce在擊出飛球比率上的衰退(21%->13%)，這讓我擔心平飛球比率（LD%） : Jay在設定好球帶的攻擊上是否出了問題 : (前年為48%,去年降為46%,大聯盟打者的平均則是51%) 這段的文意應該是：「去年，他看起來比較像 Pena，儘管他在387個打席敲了22支全壘打，但打擊三圍僅有.223/.303/.470。很多人會說以Bruce去年過低的BABIP觀之，去年的糟糕表現應該是壞運氣太糟。可是我對於這種說法並不買單。我最大的擔憂在於 Bruce去年擊出平飛球的比率也是嚇人地低。雖然平飛球是一個比較主觀的評估標准，不過對打者來說也是一個穩定的數據。我的擔心在於過低的平飛球比率部分代表了 Bruce 無法等待對進到好球帶的球進行攻擊：Bruce所面對的投球進到好球帶的比率從08年的48%降到46%。」 : On the other hand, there are lots of positive signs that make me want to : drink the Jay Bruce Kool-Aid. Bruce's O-Swing percentage improved by four : points last year, indicating that his ability to lay off pitches out of the : zone has improved. His strikeout rate was down, and his walk rate was up. His : ISO was up 50 points to .246. His fielding seemed improved, receiving strong : marks from both the Fans and objective measures like UZR. And, while his ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : monstrous production upon his return from injury in September (.326/.426/.652 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : in 54 PAs) is probably irrelevant due to the sample size, he talked a lot ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : upon returning about using the time to clear his head after a truly miserable ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : June and July in which he wOBA'd less than .300. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : 另一方面,我們仍有足夠的正面數據來繼續對Jay Bruce的未來發展有所期待(註1) : 1.O-Swing率在09球季提升了四個百分點 : 2.三振率下降及被保送率增加 : 3.ISO在上個球季提升到.246 防守上的改善亦可從UZR等防守數據上清楚顯現 : 當然Jay Bruce去年九月傷癒歸隊後,在小樣本內的驚人表現(.323/.426/.652 in 54 PAs) : 亦讓人對其手術的成功及擺脫六、七月的低潮帶來信心這句話的語義有點問題，原文應該是說：「儘管Bruce傷癒歸隊後的驚人表現有可能僅是因小樣本的結果，不過他也多次提到他如何在受傷的這段期間如何讓自己從六、七月的嚴重低潮中走出來。」 : Bruce, a former No. 1 overall prospect, has all the talent in the world. But : if the Reds are going to contend, they're going to have to score runs far : more often than they did last year. While the supporting cast is important, : there is no bigger key to the Reds' 2010 chances than the not-yet-23-year-old : Jay Bruce. : Here's what the projections say: : Oliver: .257/.315/.469 : CHONE: .286/.351/.539—wow, massive difference! : ZiPS: .251/.315/.459 : CHONE is the current "heavyweight" among projection systems. But when it : departs so severely from Oliver and ZiPS ... well ... I'll just say that I : hope it's right. : Jay Bruce，這位擁有所有棒球天賦的23歲前頂級新秀,將是紅人隊想要在新的球季中得到 : 更多分數並擺脫上季貧打囧境的主要依靠 : 關於Jay Bruce這季的預測成績: : Oliver: .257/.315/.469 : CHONE: .286/.351/.539—(FB記得選,謝謝) : ZiPS: .251/.315/.459 : Can Drew Stubbs hit major league pitching? : Last year, the Reds gave 95 starts in center field, 81 batting leadoff, to : Willy Taveras. He responded by hitting the brilliantly innocuous line of : .240/.275/.285, and posting an "MLB leading" mark of -25 wRAA. This year's : apparent starter, former No. 1 draft pick Drew Stubbs, is a brilliant ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : fielder, and seems a good bet to top Taveras' performance this year (in the ~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : good way). The question is by how much. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : 上季紅人隊給予W.Taveras在中外野95場的先發以及81場的首棒角色， : Taveras則以.240/.275/.285的完美成績來詮釋腿哥真諦， : 並成功奪得全大聯盟最敗家-25 WAA : 今年相同角色將由Drew Stubbs這位才華洋逸前首輪新秀擔任， ~~~~~~~~Justin是指他優異的防守（Stubbs一般被認為有拿金手套外野的潛力） : 目前看來Stubbs在繳出與Taveras輝煌時期相同的表現這點上是個不錯賭注(好的方面) : 問題這在於Stubbs成功的機率有多少? 這句話就不太對了。意思應該是：「Stubbs有極大的可能會優於Taveras去年的表現，只是可以提升到什麼程度？」 : The story you'll hear on Stubbs is that he has tremendous athletic tools, but : that he has had to shorten his swing so much to cope with severe contact : problems that his power is largely unusable in games. Perhaps for this : reason, he has rarely shown consistent power in the minors (28 homers in : 1,800-plus PAs, and five homers in 556 PAs at Triple-A). So I'm very : skeptical of what he did in his last-season call-up, which was to put on a : serious power display: eight home runs in just under 200 PAs. : 每當談論Drew Stubbs，驚人的運動能力雖然是其註冊商標， : 但他必須學著縮短揮棒軌跡以克服其在打擊上的問題，為了解決contact的問題，Stubbs必須修短他的揮棒軌跡，這使得他的power嚴重衰退。或許就是這個原因，他在小聯盟時期並無法持續繳出長打表現。 : 相較於上一季在短短不到200打席內所揮出的8隻全壘打， : 我想在今年球季中偶爾展現曇花一現的長打火力或許才是真正的Stubbs : (小聯盟超過1800 PAs僅有28隻全壘打,在3A的556 PAs則一共只有五轟) : So what should we expect from Stubbs? In the minors, his primary offensive : contribution came from patience at the plate: he walked in at least 11 : percent of his PAs each year in the minor leagues. While he strikes out ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : enough that he may not be able to carry a high average, he may be able to ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : walk enough to carry a decent OBP. And that would make him a nice asset, ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : because manager Dusty Baker has to hit his center fielder in the leadoff slot ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : in virtually every game. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ : Here are what the projections think of Stubbs: : Oliver: .225/.295/.326 : CHONE: .251/.328/.380 : ZiPS: .235/.305/.348 : Yikes. Let's hope he surprises. : 那麼我們究竟該如何看待Stubbs?在小聯盟，他的主要攻擊貢獻來自於打擊區上的耐心 : 過往每一季均有超過11%的被保送率，但高三振率亦使得Stubbs難以擁有高打擊率 : 因此Stubbs必須倚靠足夠的選球來掩護其上壘率， : 而這也是傳說中的那個人將中外野及第一棒交給Stubbs時所希望看到的這段語意有點怪怪的，原文的意思是：「儘管因為三振率過高使得Stubbs無法擁有高打擊率，但他拿保送的功力可以讓他維持可被接受的上壘率。這對球隊來說會是個不錯的資產，因為 Baker 總是喜歡讓他的中外野手擔任開路先鋒。」 : 關於Stubbs的成績預測: : Oliver: .225/.295/.326 : CHONE: .251/.328/.380 : ZiPS: .235/.305/.348 : 好吧...讓我們期待奇蹟... : Balentien was acquired last year in a small trade and is out of options, so : he seems likely to make the team as a reserve power bat off the bench who can : play all of the outfield positions (though you can question how well he can : handle center). When factoring in offense and defense, I'd rather have : Balentien than Gomes. But given that Balentien seems likely to make the team, : top prospects Frazier and Heisey seem to be facing a numbers game problem to : finding a spot on the roster ... although Frazier's versatility could land : him a spot filling in for an injury someone in the infield as the season : progresses. : Balentien是紅人隊從去年的小型交易中所得到，由於他已用完下放選擇權， : 因此Balentien預期將會在開季扮演板凳代打以及外野超級工具人的角色 : (至於讓他守中外野會變什麼樣子...就請自行想像....) : 如果同時考量進攻與防守，我對Balentien的愛甚於Gomes， : 但重用Balentien同時也會讓球隊中Frazier and Heisey等年輕新秀們面臨該如 Justin指的不是重用Balentien，而是指在Balentin幾乎篤定成為Reds開季名單的一員後，將會壓縮到 Frazier與 Heisey加入25人名單中的機會。 : 何在球隊中定位的問題， : 其中Frazier的多功能性將提供球隊在賽季中遇到內野傷兵問題時能夠有所應變調度 : From the left side of the plate, Dickerson almost certainly has the team : made, and is the favorite to win the left-handed side of the platoon (and : possibly could also steal some starts from Stubbs in center). Dickerson has : hit well this spring. But the Reds also seem to like the incomparably : free-swinging Juan "El Niño Destructor" Francisco. He has the most extreme : combination of low minor league walk rate (4 percent) and high strikeout rate : (23 percent) I've seen among players who eventually had any level of success : in the majors. But the guy has tremendous power. : 左打方面，春訓表現良好的Dickerson幾乎確定成為球隊面對右投手時， : 在左外野的打者人選(也可能從中外野手Stubbs身上得到一些上場機會)。 : 不過紅人隊對於JuanFrancisco這位典型重砲手也相當喜愛， : 其在小聯盟中有著極端的被保送率(4%)以及三振率(23%) : 我想他們開季後該爭的是板凳而非先發球員的角色 : So, back to the main question: Will this team break the streak of losing : seasons? The math says no. But there's a lot of good, young talent here. They : could surprise. : 所以回到最初的問題，紅人隊今年有希望破繭而出嗎？ : 想太多了，期待那些年輕有才能的選手多帶來一點驚喜還比較實際球隊今年有辦法中止連續九年敗多於勝的紀錄嗎？數學告訴我們不行，但是Reds陣中有很多充滿天賦的新秀，這些人有可能會繳出讓我們驚豔的表現。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.228.43.138