Re: [情報] Valuing Free Agents for 2011

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)時間14年前 (2010/12/09 10:36)推噓5(5推 0噓 7→)

留言12則, 8人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言： : http://tinyurl.com/25ybkq 不配使用說明書太說不過去了XD – These values are projected based on recent past performance. 價值的估算是奠基於過去的表現 – The estimates account for aging and league revenue growth. 有考慮年紀和聯盟收入的成長 – These values are just for 2011. Over a longer term, value will diminish with age, but increase with revenue growth. Revenue growth is stronger than aging decline; therefore, even as players age their value tends to increase. If a player signs a five-year contract, he will typically get more than five-times the value projected in 2011. 這些價值只適用2011，長期來說球員價值隨著年紀會降低，但是因為聯盟的收入會成長（Bernanke表示：讓我證明你是錯的！），造成的增值大過年紀造成的貶值。因此即使球員變老了他們的價值還是會增加。如果一個球員簽下五年合約，大致而言他的真實價值會超過2011這個價值的五倍（例如Huff的估算價值是11M，拿到22M/2yrs的合約，實際上球團是賺到的，因為他在2012年的價值不止11M） – Values assume the player signs with an average team. Players who sign with winning teams are worth considerably more than their value to an average team. Example: Clill Lee is worth nearly $10 million/year more to a top team than an average team. 這個價值是假設簽約對象是平均水準的球隊，對於贏球的球隊而言，這個價值要往上修舉例來說，Cliff Lee對強隊的價值高過這個價值10M/year -- 他沒有把計算方法列出來，下面的回覆留言JC說他估算臘肉哥值9.5M(?!) -- My Blog，關於誠泰Cobras、NY Yankees與棒球數據 http://atlyankees.blogspot.com/ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 67.240.191.113 ※ 編輯: nickyang 來自: 67.240.191.113 (12/09 10:38)