[選秀] 別在造神了 好嗎

看板MLB (美國職棒/大聯盟)作者時間12年前 (2012/06/07 14:30), 編輯推噓50(51140)
留言92則, 54人參與, 最新討論串1/2 (看更多)
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/6/5/3064793/mlb-draft-2012-tv-coverage Jun 5, 2012 - I have a request, for everyone who's involved in Major League Baseball Network's coverage, a year from now, of the First-Year Player Draft: Please inject at least a modicum of practicality into your comparisons. 我希望以後新秀模板 至少要拿一個普通球員當模板 不要總是拿明星自嗨 Because what they did this year, and in past years, doesn't do anyone any good. This is apparent every year, but I heard something Tuesday night that really got my blood boiling. The San Diego Padres, with the seventh pick in the first round, drafted an 18-year-old left-hander named Max Fried. 雖說每年都這樣 但星期二教士的選秀真的讓我怒了 他們選了個左投新秀叫Max Fried Studio host Greg Amsinger got the ball rolling with this: Scouts love his 94-mile-an-hour fastball, but he has one of the best curveballs in the entire draft, according to scouts. Many of them think that Fried compares to C.J. Wilson, while others say, "I can see a little Barry Zito, in Max Fried." 主持人Greg Amsinger說 "球探喜歡他的94mph火球 但他有選秀最好的曲球 很多球探 把他比作CJ Wilson 而另一些則看到Zito的影子" Frankly, that's quite preposterous on its own. Utterly, ridiculously preposterous to say those things about an 18-year-old who's probably at least three years and one surgery away from even pitching in the majors, let alone pitching like Wilson and Zito have pitched. 只能說是有夠豪洨的比較 他離大聯盟還有一大段路要走 更不用說是要投的像Wilson或Zito But apparently that wasn't quite preposterous enough, because analyst John Hart -- who really should know better, considering how many drafts he oversaw in Cleveland -- upped the ante. Amsinger said, "What do you think, John Hart?" 但這還不夠豪洨 因為分析家John Hart -以他在印第安人隊的經驗 應該對這方面的事 更了解- 吹更大了 Amsinger說 "你認為呢? John Hart?" Hart: <chortle> Way beyond that. Way beyond that, Greg. I think you're missing the boat. I see more of a cross between Cole Hamels -- pitchability, high school, lean, sorta wiry kid -- little bit of Kershaw; I don't know that he's gonna certainly not have that power, but this is a left-hander that is gonna pitch with three plus pitches. His ceiling is a No. 1/2-type starter ... Hart "比這更好 我看到他有一些黑魔使 一些書僮的味道 這是一支有三個plus的左投 他的天花板是1/2號..." Look, it's perfectly appropriate to mention the major-league pitchers who come to mind, when you're looking at an 18-year-old pitcher. Baseball men like John Hart love to project young baseball players; in fact, the ability to project a young baseball player is what separates a great baseball man from a regular baseball man. What's missing is someone, anyone who's willing to mention a comparable player who's not a good (or great) major leaguer. Fried was taken with the seventh pick. Here are all the high-school pitchers taken with the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, or ninth picks from 1998 through 2007: Josh Girdley, Bobby Bradley, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Colt Griffin, Clint Everts, Zack Greinke, John Danks, Mark Rogers, Homer Bailey, Clayton Kershaw, Jarrod Parker. Greinke and Kershaw both have won Cy Young Awards. Danks has some fine seasons to his credit, while Bailey and Parker seem to be heading in that direction. But if you're talking about a player drafted with the No. 7 pick, wouldn't it make sense to at least mention a few similar 18-year-old pitchers who maybe did not excel in the major leagues? Maybe John Hart doesn't remember Josh Girdley and Mark Phillips, but someone drawing a paycheck from The MLB Network, Inc. must remember those guys. Or could, at the very least, look them up. 看看過往的記錄 即使是在這麼前段的選秀 失敗品也很多 難道不應該也把失敗品提出來看看嗎? But the whole draft went like that: Player drafted, immediately compared to major-league superstar. But it wasn't until a bit later in the draft that my blood pressure shot up again. With the 19th pick, the Cardinals took a Texas A&M right-hander named Michael Wacha. 但整個選秀就像: 新秀中選 馬上被拿來和大明星相比 到後面又有個讓我怒了的例子 紅雀選了德州農工大學投手Michael Wacha Greg Amsinger: "The player comp is Jon Garland. Do you see that, John Hart?" Greg Amsinger "模板是Jon Garland 你認為呢 John Hart?" Hart did not: "I think he's gonna be a better pitcher than Jon Garland. Again, looking at a guy like Wacha, not a lot of ceiling, not a 1 or 2 guy. But a safe bet to become a major-league starter. I see him as a good mid-rotation guy ..." Hart不這麼認為 "我想他比Garland更好 像他這樣天花板是不太高 但是可以安穩的成為 大聯盟先發 我想他是中段輪值料..." If Wacha is better than Jon Garland, it will be a major upset. Jon Garland won 132 games in the major leagues. I would be willing to bet John Hart a cool three hundred dollars that Michael Wacha doesn't win even 100 games in the majors. Jon Garland可是贏了132勝呢 我敢跟Hart對賭300元 賭Wacha連百勝都拿不到 Repeating our little exercise from before, here are the college pitchers taken with the 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, or 21st picks from 1998 through 2007: Brad Lidge, Seth Etherton, Ben Diggins, Chris Bootcheck, Aaron Heilman, Brad Hennessey, Royce Ring, Bobby Brownlie, Chad Cordero, Chris Lambert, Cesar Carrillo, Brett Sinkbell, Ian Kennedy, Joe Savery. How many of those guys were better than Jon Garland? Arguably, one: Brad Lidge. And Ian Kennedy's still got a fighting chance. The Cardinals will be thrilled if Michael Wacha is as good as Garland. Let alone better. 這個順位失敗的就更多了 Wacha能長成Garland紅雀就爽翻了 更不用說是更好了 I really don't mean to pick on John Hart. And again, I'm not saying that it's inappropriate to compare draft picks to established major leaguers, or even superstars. What I'm saying is that the lofty, somewhat hallucinatory comparisons should be leavened by comparisons with other, similar amateurs. Some of whom became stars, and some of whom -- especially as you get deeper into the first round -- didn't. 我不是想要故意跟John Hart找碴 只是想說有些模版實在太豪洨 至少也拿些相似的業餘球員來相比 - 有些長成明星 有些沒有 There are people at the MLB Network who want to be taken seriously, as journalists. But nobody's doing themselves any favors by failing to acknowledge that a small percentage of players drafted every June, even players drafted in the first round, become big stars. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.109.64.167

06/07 14:34, , 1F
拿普通球員的話 台下搞不好沒印象 畢竟光25人名單就750人
06/07 14:34, 1F

06/07 14:35, , 2F
06/07 14:35, 2F

06/07 14:36, , 3F
本來就是在說天花板不是嗎? 如果第一輪天花板還是普通球員
06/07 14:36, 3F

06/07 14:36, , 4F
幹嘛鞭Fried 莫名其妙 要鞭也不是鞭他吧
06/07 14:36, 4F

06/07 14:36, , 5F
那明星球員哪來的?
06/07 14:36, 5F

06/07 14:39, , 6F
都電視轉播了 當然要搞得煽情一點娛樂球迷
06/07 14:39, 6F

06/07 14:40, , 7F
不然跟十年前一樣念個名字過去就好啦 XD
06/07 14:40, 7F

06/07 14:40, , 8F
有些球迷聽到模板是Garland Zito還會嫌勒
06/07 14:40, 8F

06/07 14:48, , 9F
寶傑好 大家好 我想Melky的模板是Mantle, 他以後會是HOFer
06/07 14:48, 9F

06/07 14:49, , 10F
又要取悅球迷 又要保守看待 是真的滿困難的 XD
06/07 14:49, 10F

06/07 14:54, , 11F
有夢最美,希望相隨。對職業運動來說,取悅球迷還蠻重要的
06/07 14:54, 11F

06/07 14:55, , 12F
現在教士的戰績 要HOLD住球迷也滿不容易的.....
06/07 14:55, 12F

06/07 14:56, , 13F
你的產品不講好處怎麼賣出去?
06/07 14:56, 13F

06/07 14:57, , 14F
這樣也可以鞭,真的是什麼都可以鞭~
06/07 14:57, 14F

06/07 14:57, , 15F
反正專業的考量是球團在做的,球迷就滿懷希望、樂觀看球就好XD
06/07 14:57, 15F

06/07 14:58, , 16F
也是 如果老實說這隻天花板只是個3A球員 球迷不都崩潰XD
06/07 14:58, 16F

06/07 15:00, , 17F
Wacha超可憐
06/07 15:00, 17F

06/07 15:06, , 18F
說實在是這篇作者自己丟臉,Wacha感覺倒還好
06/07 15:06, 18F

06/07 15:16, , 19F
打擊的模板可以用mario mendoza啊
06/07 15:16, 19F

06/07 15:57, , 20F
Zito的影子.......
06/07 15:57, 20F

06/07 16:02, , 21F
先看名字有沒有C,C開頭就有很大機率成為強力左投了XD
06/07 16:02, 21F

06/07 16:02, , 22F
這種風氣會造成新秀簽約金大幅拉高?
06/07 16:02, 22F

06/07 16:03, , 23F
CC, CJ, Cole Hamels,Cliff Lee,Clayton Kershaw
06/07 16:03, 23F

06/07 16:07, , 24F
Chen Wei-Yin
06/07 16:07, 24F

06/07 16:11, , 25F
美國人不都這樣?
06/07 16:11, 25F

06/07 16:33, , 26F
美國人作風習慣就好~~~~~~~~
06/07 16:33, 26F

06/07 16:34, , 27F
他是說比作簽肥約後的Zito啊(誤)
06/07 16:34, 27F

06/07 16:40, , 28F
XDDDDDDD Zito 躺著也中槍
06/07 16:40, 28F

06/07 16:44, , 29F
當然要先捧一下啊 講新秀悲劇是鬼敢選哦
06/07 16:44, 29F

06/07 16:45, , 30F
搞不懂這篇在怒啥~難到新秀剛被選到你就要說他將來打得
06/07 16:45, 30F

06/07 16:46, , 31F
跟3a王一樣厲害之類的嗎...
06/07 16:46, 31F

06/07 16:55, , 32F
難道要說我覺得他們都很廢連選都不用選反正上不了MLB?
06/07 16:55, 32F

06/07 17:13, , 33F
其實他的意思大概是要像這樣形容..舉天使的santana以前的
06/07 17:13, 33F

06/07 17:14, , 34F
評價做例子."santana有mid 95的fastball,3個不錯的變化球
06/07 17:14, 34F

06/07 17:14, , 35F
長的出來的有機會成為下一個Pedro...長不出來的話可能就
06/07 17:14, 35F

06/07 17:15, , 36F
是像Ramon Ortiz"...
06/07 17:15, 36F

06/07 17:16, , 37F
看小山這幾年的表現,還蠻中肯的...
06/07 17:16, 37F

06/07 17:24, , 38F
WHY SO SERIOUS 人家說什麼甘他闢事
06/07 17:24, 38F

06/07 17:27, , 39F
我是覺得不能只給天花板 也要給個夠知名的地板 這樣球
06/07 17:27, 39F

06/07 17:27, , 40F
團才比較好評估
06/07 17:27, 40F

06/07 17:31, , 41F
這是球探看人的一種方式,就是你覺得這個新秀讓你想到哪
06/07 17:31, 41F

06/07 17:33, , 42F
個成名球員。而且不只棒球,之前就有專家出來說這就是林
06/07 17:33, 42F

06/07 17:34, , 43F
書豪被忽略的原因。〈因為球探都沒看過灌籃高手,所以無
06/07 17:34, 43F

06/07 17:34, , 44F
法聯想到仙道 XD〉
06/07 17:34, 44F

06/07 17:35, , 45F
仙道 囧>?
06/07 17:35, 45F

06/07 17:36, , 46F
或者 Greinke 是球速更快的 Maddux 也是這種運作方式。
06/07 17:36, 46F

06/07 17:37, , 47F
我開玩笑的啦,就是說林無法讓人聯想到成名球員...
06/07 17:37, 47F

06/07 17:41, , 48F
也就是說這種方法雖然易懂方便,但也很可能刻板印象。
06/07 17:41, 48F

06/07 17:43, , 49F
評估和養成是球團的事 給名字是讓球迷有個印象罷了
06/07 17:43, 49F

06/07 17:44, , 50F
要選誰絕對不是憑天花板是誰這種粗略的條件來決定的
06/07 17:44, 50F

06/07 17:45, , 51F
另外這絕對不是美國作風 日本也有一大堆XX二世的封號
06/07 17:45, 51F

06/07 18:07, , 52F
Hart有鄉民的淺質
06/07 18:07, 52F

06/07 18:10, , 53F
這釣竿有點強
06/07 18:10, 53F

06/07 18:12, , 54F
有天花板就有地板
06/07 18:12, 54F

06/07 18:30, , 55F
我出去看了2次 想說NBA版怎麼Po MLB選秀文......
06/07 18:30, 55F

06/07 18:35, , 56F
對賭Wacha拿不到百勝這種說法對一個年輕球員來說很不厚道
06/07 18:35, 56F

06/07 18:36, , 57F
雖然是為了嗆Hart 也不必這樣講吧
06/07 18:36, 57F

06/07 18:37, , 58F
只有5%左右的人能上大聯盟 當然很難預測...
06/07 18:37, 58F

06/07 18:47, , 59F
這也太無聊 本來就講給球迷講爽的阿 球隊當然知道天花板
06/07 18:47, 59F

06/07 18:59, , 60F
球迷也知道新秀是要養的吧...講的好像球迷很笨
06/07 18:59, 60F

06/07 19:19, , 61F
Jim Callis 曾說過 BA 讀者都喜歡問天花板 (ceiling)
06/07 19:19, 61F

06/07 19:21, , 62F
但是很少人會問他這新秀最有可能發展出的結果
06/07 19:21, 62F

06/07 19:22, , 63F
而參考價值比較大的當然是後者
06/07 19:22, 63F

06/07 19:37, , 64F
中肯一點的球探報告都會有天花板預測跟養不成功像誰
06/07 19:37, 64F

06/07 19:37, , 65F
不過那種球員知道的人又有多少?通常都被忽視掉....
06/07 19:37, 65F

06/07 19:51, , 66F
雖然說能上的去大檸檬就是極大的肯定 但報告裡面如果寫說
06/07 19:51, 66F

06/07 19:52, , 67F
他的天花板到Mario Mendoza(突然想到他有一條線)
06/07 19:52, 67F

06/07 19:53, , 68F
你想球迷能接受嗎?我看FO和球探會被幹爆
06/07 19:53, 68F

06/07 19:53, , 69F
comparison只是給個雛形,讓人大略了解這球員的類型
06/07 19:53, 69F

06/07 19:54, , 70F
就像所有有防守沒打擊的游擊手都一定被比做Everett
06/07 19:54, 70F

06/07 19:55, , 71F
只要是波多黎各游擊手,就會是Roberto Alomar
06/07 19:55, 71F

06/07 20:19, , 72F
其實 當Adam Everett 還是襪襪prospect 的時候
06/07 20:19, 72F

06/07 20:20, , 73F
有報告說他的模板是Nomar Garciaparra XDrz
06/07 20:20, 73F

06/07 20:28, , 74F
Wacha錯了嗎 是不可以高壓投球嗎
06/07 20:28, 74F

06/07 20:32, , 75F
Wacha衰爆了
06/07 20:32, 75F

06/07 20:46, , 76F
想到之前有板友因為速球版 Muddax 不悅就覺得很可愛 :)
06/07 20:46, 76F

06/07 20:55, , 77F
樓上是假貨 所以才不悅吧
06/07 20:55, 77F

06/07 21:00, , 78F
:p 今天一直打錯別人名字真不好意思 Maddux
06/07 21:00, 78F

06/07 21:03, , 79F
Garland人呢??
06/07 21:03, 79F

06/07 21:21, , 80F
他總不能說投手會被養成沈玉潔啊
06/07 21:21, 80F

06/07 21:21, , 81F
Jeff Mathis當初的版模是誰啊? 再拿回來看應該無限感吧~
06/07 21:21, 81F

06/07 23:21, , 82F
我當初也期待 Loney 可以長成 Begwell 阿。
06/07 23:21, 82F

06/07 23:22, , 83F
a 抱歉
06/07 23:22, 83F

06/07 23:44, , 84F
Jeff Mathis-->Joe Mauer以外最佳的新秀捕手 ^^
06/07 23:44, 84F

06/07 23:45, , 85F
Mathis現在OPS 0.774 =_= 該說偉哉米老鼠嗎...
06/07 23:45, 85F

06/08 00:46, , 86F
其實滿中肯的
06/08 00:46, 86F

06/08 03:25, , 87F
以前我也花很多時間研究小聯盟球員和選秀
06/08 03:25, 87F

06/08 03:25, , 88F
後來覺得真的看AA以上球員就夠了,小聯盟一堆新秀連AA都
06/08 03:25, 88F

06/08 03:26, , 89F
上不去,有些BA Top 100打者是上AAA投手屠殺,太多例子了
06/08 03:26, 89F

06/08 11:47, , 90F
AA以下還是很值得看啦 畢竟在那就可以看出raw stuff
06/08 11:47, 90F

06/08 16:37, , 91F
我的意思是等他上AA我再來看也不遲阿...XD
06/08 16:37, 91F

06/08 21:43, , 92F
本來以為Jeff Mathis去爪爪OPS都沒有.750
06/08 21:43, 92F
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