[選秀] 別在造神了 好嗎
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/6/5/3064793/mlb-draft-2012-tv-coverage
Jun 5, 2012 - I have a request, for everyone who's involved in Major League
Baseball Network's coverage, a year from now, of the First-Year Player Draft:
Please inject at least a modicum of practicality into your comparisons.
我希望以後新秀模板 至少要拿一個普通球員當模板
不要總是拿明星自嗨
Because what they did this year, and in past years, doesn't do anyone any
good.
This is apparent every year, but I heard something Tuesday night that really
got my blood boiling. The San Diego Padres, with the seventh pick in the
first round, drafted an 18-year-old left-hander named Max Fried.
雖說每年都這樣 但星期二教士的選秀真的讓我怒了
他們選了個左投新秀叫Max Fried
Studio host Greg Amsinger got the ball rolling with this:
Scouts love his 94-mile-an-hour fastball, but he has one of the best
curveballs in the entire draft, according to scouts. Many of them think that
Fried compares to C.J. Wilson, while others say, "I can see a little Barry
Zito, in Max Fried."
主持人Greg Amsinger說 "球探喜歡他的94mph火球 但他有選秀最好的曲球 很多球探
把他比作CJ Wilson 而另一些則看到Zito的影子"
Frankly, that's quite preposterous on its own. Utterly, ridiculously
preposterous to say those things about an 18-year-old who's probably at least
three years and one surgery away from even pitching in the majors, let alone
pitching like Wilson and Zito have pitched.
只能說是有夠豪洨的比較 他離大聯盟還有一大段路要走
更不用說是要投的像Wilson或Zito
But apparently that wasn't quite preposterous enough, because analyst John
Hart -- who really should know better, considering how many drafts he oversaw
in Cleveland -- upped the ante. Amsinger said, "What do you think, John Hart?"
但這還不夠豪洨 因為分析家John Hart -以他在印第安人隊的經驗 應該對這方面的事
更了解- 吹更大了 Amsinger說 "你認為呢? John Hart?"
Hart:
<chortle> Way beyond that. Way beyond that, Greg. I think you're missing the
boat. I see more of a cross between Cole Hamels -- pitchability, high school,
lean, sorta wiry kid -- little bit of Kershaw; I don't know that he's gonna
certainly not have that power, but this is a left-hander that is gonna pitch
with three plus pitches. His ceiling is a No. 1/2-type starter ...
Hart "比這更好 我看到他有一些黑魔使 一些書僮的味道 這是一支有三個plus的左投
他的天花板是1/2號..."
Look, it's perfectly appropriate to mention the major-league pitchers who
come to mind, when you're looking at an 18-year-old pitcher. Baseball men
like John Hart love to project young baseball players; in fact, the ability
to project a young baseball player is what separates a great baseball man
from a regular baseball man.
What's missing is someone, anyone who's willing to mention a comparable
player who's not a good (or great) major leaguer.
Fried was taken with the seventh pick. Here are all the high-school pitchers
taken with the fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, or ninth picks from 1998
through 2007: Josh Girdley, Bobby Bradley, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland,
Mark Phillips, Colt Griffin, Clint Everts, Zack Greinke, John Danks, Mark
Rogers, Homer Bailey, Clayton Kershaw, Jarrod Parker.
Greinke and Kershaw both have won Cy Young Awards. Danks has some fine
seasons to his credit, while Bailey and Parker seem to be heading in that
direction. But if you're talking about a player drafted with the No. 7 pick,
wouldn't it make sense to at least mention a few similar 18-year-old pitchers
who maybe did not excel in the major leagues? Maybe John Hart doesn't
remember Josh Girdley and Mark Phillips, but someone drawing a paycheck from
The MLB Network, Inc. must remember those guys. Or could, at the very least,
look them up.
看看過往的記錄 即使是在這麼前段的選秀 失敗品也很多
難道不應該也把失敗品提出來看看嗎?
But the whole draft went like that: Player drafted, immediately compared to
major-league superstar. But it wasn't until a bit later in the draft that my
blood pressure shot up again. With the 19th pick, the Cardinals took a Texas
A&M right-hander named Michael Wacha.
但整個選秀就像: 新秀中選 馬上被拿來和大明星相比
到後面又有個讓我怒了的例子
紅雀選了德州農工大學投手Michael Wacha
Greg Amsinger: "The player comp is Jon Garland. Do you see that, John Hart?"
Greg Amsinger "模板是Jon Garland 你認為呢 John Hart?"
Hart did not: "I think he's gonna be a better pitcher than Jon Garland.
Again, looking at a guy like Wacha, not a lot of ceiling, not a 1 or 2 guy.
But a safe bet to become a major-league starter. I see him as a good
mid-rotation guy ..."
Hart不這麼認為 "我想他比Garland更好 像他這樣天花板是不太高 但是可以安穩的成為
大聯盟先發 我想他是中段輪值料..."
If Wacha is better than Jon Garland, it will be a major upset. Jon Garland
won 132 games in the major leagues. I would be willing to bet John Hart a
cool three hundred dollars that Michael Wacha doesn't win even 100 games in
the majors.
Jon Garland可是贏了132勝呢 我敢跟Hart對賭300元 賭Wacha連百勝都拿不到
Repeating our little exercise from before, here are the college pitchers
taken with the 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, or 21st picks from 1998 through 2007:
Brad Lidge, Seth Etherton, Ben Diggins, Chris Bootcheck, Aaron Heilman, Brad
Hennessey, Royce Ring, Bobby Brownlie, Chad Cordero, Chris Lambert, Cesar
Carrillo, Brett Sinkbell, Ian Kennedy, Joe Savery.
How many of those guys were better than Jon Garland? Arguably, one: Brad
Lidge. And Ian Kennedy's still got a fighting chance. The Cardinals will be
thrilled if Michael Wacha is as good as Garland. Let alone better.
這個順位失敗的就更多了 Wacha能長成Garland紅雀就爽翻了
更不用說是更好了
I really don't mean to pick on John Hart. And again, I'm not saying that it's
inappropriate to compare draft picks to established major leaguers, or even
superstars. What I'm saying is that the lofty, somewhat hallucinatory
comparisons should be leavened by comparisons with other, similar amateurs.
Some of whom became stars, and some of whom -- especially as you get deeper
into the first round -- didn't.
我不是想要故意跟John Hart找碴 只是想說有些模版實在太豪洨
至少也拿些相似的業餘球員來相比 - 有些長成明星 有些沒有
There are people at the MLB Network who want to be taken seriously, as
journalists. But nobody's doing themselves any favors by failing to
acknowledge that a small percentage of players drafted every June, even
players drafted in the first round, become big stars.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.109.64.167
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