[討論] 巨人能，水手也能？

看板Mariners作者Guillen時間12年前 (2012/11/01 13:57)推噓9(9推 0噓 1→)

留言10則, 9人參與討論串1/1

The Giants And The Mariners Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing [基本上是自爽文但是看一看也滿有趣的，速翻，有誤請指正。] The San Francisco Giants won the 2012 World Series. The Seattle Mariners did not. The Giants won it all for the second time in three years, while the Mariners continued to not do the same thing they have been not doing since the dawn of their existence. Though San Francisco and Seattle have a lot in common, and though I think the majority of Mariners fans with a rooting interest were pulling for the Giants, this has all been the source of some dissatisfaction. The Giants have built what passes for a miniature dynasty without following a roster-management strategy one would consider remarkable. The Mariners have in the past drawn considerable praise under the leadership of Jack Zduriencik, but under Zduriencik the Mariners have finished in third, last, last, and last. There are teams that have gotten fewer breaks, but it feels like the Mariners have gotten a below-average number of breaks. 舊金山巨人拿下2012世界大賽冠軍，水手沒有，巨人在無人注意的情況下建立了他們的小王朝，而水手總管Jack-Z雖然備受推崇但水手在他治下的這幾年戰績卻是鴉鴉烏。 What's important isn't so much how the Giants won the actual World Series in four games over the Tigers. The Giants won the actual World Series in large part due to nonsense. Barry Zito out-dueled Justin Verlander, and even came through with an RBI line-drive single against Justin Verlander. The Tigers mysteriously just stopped hitting, like at all, and while some of that was because of the Giants, a lot of that was not. Gregor Blanco put down an impossible bunt. Prince Fielder was thrown out by an impossible relay. Angel Pagan doubled off a base. The Tigers stranded everyone. Octavio Dotel didn't throw Hunter Pence a slider. This was a weird series that told us little about baseball except that baseball is harder when it's really cold out. 巨人怎麼贏得世界冠軍其實不是很重要，因為有點莫名其妙。 But the Giants won the World Series, meaning the Giants had to get there first before winning it. Everybody wants for the Mariners to win a World Series. At least, everybody who roots for the Mariners wants for the Mariners to win a World Series. As was the case the last time the Giants did this, one should feel pretty good about the fact that the Giants were able to do this. 但是巨人得先打進世界大賽才有辦法贏得冠軍。看看巨人，想想水手，其實我們自我感覺可以很良好。 This year's Giants had a pretty big payroll. It blew the Mariners' payroll out of the water, after it didn't do that at all in 2010. But the Giants' highest-paid player posted an 84 ERA+. The Giants' second-highest-paid player posted a 67 ERA+. For the sake of reference, Kevin Millwood posted an 88 ERA+. The Giants' fourth-highest-paid player posted a 77 OPS+ over 95 plate appearances. The Giants' fifth-highest-paid player threw two innings before getting injured. The Giants' sixth-highest-paid player got suspended for steroids. The Giants' seventh-highest-paid player was injured all season long and never played. The Giants' eight-highest-paid player was a non-elite lefty reliever. Now that's actually going by Opening Day payroll, and it doesn't take into account the expensive Hunter Pence, but Pence hit .219 after arriving from Philadelphia so there you go with that. The Giants spent a lot of money and got very little back from their most expensive players. 巨人今年砸了大錢，但是最貴的席托ERA+只有84，第二貴的盲腸ERA+是67，我們的米爾伍德可是有88哪。後面幾隻貴的也是亂糟糟，不是喝了毒奶就是受傷。 It's important for a front office to be efficient, because of course efficiency is all about maximizing wins, but as the Giants have demonstrated, you don't actually need to be that efficient to win the championship. You can afford to miss on many of your expensive players, so long as you have a core of really good cheap players to balance things out. Buster Posey is probably going to win the MVP, and he didn't make a million dollars. Madison Bumgarner made even less. Sergio Romo was pretty cheap, Ryan Vogelsong was pretty cheap, Pablo Sandoval was pretty cheap, and Angel Pagan was pretty cheap. Clearly, some of those expensive contracts did the Giants few favors. But at the same time, clearly, they weren't crippling. Individual contracts can pretty much never be crippling. A small handful of contracts can pretty much never be crippling. You can make mistakes and win -- the Giants made mistakes and won. 有打出來的那幾隻都很便宜，幾個薪水小偷其實沒什麼關係，巨人軍白花了些錢但最終還是贏了。 Of course, by having a higher payroll, the Giants were better able to survive inefficient contracts. That's one of the bonuses of having a higher payroll. That's one of the reasons people want to see the Mariners spend more on their product. It isn't just that a higher payroll allows one to purchase more wins; it's that a higher payroll allows one to be less efficient. Being efficient as a front office is incredibly difficult to do, such that it isn't impossible to succeed as the Tampa Bay Rays, but it's a lot easier to succeed as someone else. More money means more margin of error, and you like to have more margin of error when dealing with something as unpredictable as baseball seasons. 當然啦，口袋夠深的好處就是可以多買到幾勝，也可以忍耐失敗的合約，棒球很難預測，要像光芒那樣又簡樸又強盛實在很難。 Let's leave the payroll topic behind, now. You know what the Giants did? They won the World Series while playing half their games this season in an extreme pitcher's park. At home, the Giants hit 31 regular-season dingers. 31 dingers, 81 games. The average Giants road game featured 9.7 runs. The average Giants home game featured 7.2 runs. MVP candidate Buster Posey went deep seven times in San Francisco and 17 times in not-San Francisco. The Mariners are already adjusting Safeco's fences to make it more hitter-friendly, but clearly, playing in an extreme home environment doesn't preclude a team from going all the way. This year, AT&T Park was similarly frustrating. The Giants didn't let it get in their heads. The Giants are an argument for why the Mariners don't need to adjust the fences at all. 先別提錢了，你有聽說過巨人主場也是投手天堂嗎？巨人今年在主場開轟實在少的可憐，但還是笑到最後，這或許證明水手不用特別去改造主場。 You know what the Giants did? They won the World Series while starting Brandon Crawford at shortstop. This year, Crawford batted .248 with a .304 OBP and minimal power. For his career, Brendan Ryan has batted .244 with a .306 OBP and minimal power. Anyone who's watched Ryan knows he's an elite-level defender, and anyone who watched Crawford now knows he's also an elite-level defender. The Giants basically won the World Series with Brendan Ryan, meaning it isn't impossible for a team to win the World Series with Brendan Ryan. It isn't impossible for a team to win the World Series with pretty much anyone -- I always hate this sort of thinking -- but there you go. Punchless, glove-first, 80s-era shortstop. World championship. 先別提這個了，你有聽說過巨人的先發游擊嗎？Brandon Crawford打得跟Brendan Ryan一樣爛，守備也一樣好，巨人帶著玩具槍游擊手贏得了冠軍，水手也可以帶著另一把玩具槍贏得冠軍。 You know what the Giants did? They won the World Series while getting 37 regular-season home runs from their outfielders. Over nearly 2,200 regular-season plate appearances, Giants outfielders went deep 37 times, the lowest total in baseball and way, way below Oakland's league-leading 120. Yet the outfield posted an above-average combined wRC+. By UZR, it ranked #4. By baserunning, it ranked #2. By WAR, it ranked #7. The Giants got Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez and another guy. The Giants got Angel Pagan for Andres Torres and another guy. The Giants got Gregor Blanco for free. The Giants got Hunter Pence for a package, but it wasn't an overwhelming package, and after coming over, Hunter Pence was bad. Hunter Pence was as effective as it looks to the eye like Hunter Pence should be. 先別提游擊手了，你有聽說過巨人外野手整年才敲出37轟嗎？雖然他們的進攻與防守進階數據都很棒，但他們的外野組成員其實也不嚇人。 This was a season that the Dodgers went crazy spending money under new ownership. The Dodgers made a series of high-profile transactions, and the Dodgers finished eight games behind the Giants in the NL West standings. The competition is now only just beginning, as the Dodgers aren't going to stop spending money any time soon, but at least once, now, the Giants have gone further than the Magic Johnson Dodgers and won the World Series despite a financial disadvantage. Money's great! Money isn't everything. It's money + intelligence using that money + luck. The Giants had some of all three. 今年道奇挖到石油之後瘋狂採購，但最後在分區大幅落後給巨人，有錢好辦事，但要有錢加上智慧與運氣才是勝利的重點。 What did the Giants have that the Mariners don't have at least developing? Better way to put it: how far away are the Mariners from being able to field a roster like the Giants', really? Matt Cain is their answer to Felix Hernandez, if he's probably a little worse. What the Mariners don't have is a Buster Posey. The rest? there's nothing incredible about the rest. A healthy Franklin Gutierrez could be Angel Pagan, and has been before. There's nobody like Pablo Sandoval, but Sandoval himself isn't an actual superstar. It's not a team of superstars. It's a team of good players, and few bad ones. The Mariners obviously need to improve their crop of position players, and it'd be super if someone were to emerge as an All-Star talent, but the difference between the Mariners' crop and a championship crop isn't enormous. You just need to be good enough, then you just need to win in the playoffs. 水手要怎樣才能建構出像巨人一樣的奪冠陣容？Matt Cain 是他們的舊金山國王，水手卻沒有西雅圖鐵捕，但健康的Gutierrez可以跟Pagan平分秋色，雖然沒人像功夫熊貓一樣，但他本身也不是真正的棒球大明星，巨人基本上是由一群只能稱得上好球員的選手搭上一些令人失望的球員組成的，整體來講，水手跟巨人的陣容落差其實沒有很大。 There is no one way, no right way to build a World Series roster. There are better ways and worse ways, and there are things you can do to improve your odds, but one wouldn't have thought you'd build a two-time World Series-winning roster by signing Barry Zito for seven years. Zito's still under contract for 2013. For all I know the Giants could do it again. Already, the Giants have won the World Series for a third of the years that they've been paying Barry Zito. 沒有必勝的建隊絕招，但你絕對想不到給Zito一份長約是奪冠拼圖之一。 The Giants should make Mariners fans feel better because the Giants should make all fans everywhere feel better. The Giants haven't done this by being perfect, or anything close to it. Brian Sabean used to be one of the most highly-criticized general managers in the league. Bruce Bochy used to draw the normal amount of ire. Between 2005-2008, the Giants won 75, 76, 71, and 72 games. Since then they've won 88, 92, 86, and 94 games, and two world championships. Things looked fairly bleak until they didn't. The Giants had hopes for players in the system and enough of those players turned out, supplemented by additions from elsewhere. The Giants have won with a pretty simple formula because it hasn't really been a formula at all. 巨人並不完美，總管被笑成是傻賓，總教練也常被幹繳，05-08年都只贏得70來勝，但之後四季兩度突破90勝跟2個世界大賽冠軍，他們陣容裡的確有些希望，而許多希望成真了，要贏就是那麼簡單。 Different people have different issues with the Mariners. All of them would go away if the Mariners won a World Series. How far away are the Mariners from winning a World Series? They're not that far away from being capable, because nobody is that far away from being capable. Here's a little secret: championship rosters don't have to be as amazing as you might think. They just have to be good, and at the end, they just have to be hot. Are the Mariners that far away from being pretty good? Of course they're not. And you never know which pretty good team will just refuse to start losing. Sometimes in the playoffs, a bouncer deflects off a base, or Barry Zito throws better pitches than Justin Verlander. It's all about just getting there. 水手距離世界大賽冠軍有多遠？其實真的不遠。其實對每一隊來說都沒有差很遠，冠軍陣容不必像打MVP Baseball一樣誇張，只要夠好還有最後時刻夠火熱就行了。沒人知道季後賽會發生什麼事，重點是打進去季後賽就夠了。 One day, the Mariners will get there. Who's to say which day that'll be? 有一天水手會殺進季後賽的，誰能說說看會是哪一天呢？ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 71.227.175.76