[閒聊] Mike Stanton's Power

看板Marlins作者Iukak (阿~~)時間15年前 (2010/08/06 22:07)推噓1(1推 0噓 1→)

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如有重大翻譯錯誤歡迎及時告知若只是覺得不夠嚴謹...請多包涵XD http://www.fishstripes.com/2010/8/5/1606459/mike-stantons-power Mike Stanton's Power by craig on Aug 5, 2010 8:01 AM EDT in News Jeff Sullivan takes a look at Mike Stanton's power. Jeff Sullivan對Mike Stanton的power做了一些觀察：(註) 3) 29.6% People know Florida's Michael Stanton for one primary reason: he's really strong. The 20(!) year old outfielder racks up his share of strikeouts, but he also slugged 88 home runs over a 2.5-year span in the minors, and upon his promotion to the bigs, many instantly put him in the argument of being the strongest raw hitter in the Major Leagues. Adam Dunn? Ryan Howard? Powerful guys, but not markedly more powerful than Michael Stanton. Or so the story goes. 這個驚嘆號是作者自己加的↓ 人們對於馬大魚新秀Michael Stanton的第一印象不外乎是他很壯。這位20歲(!)的外野手過去兩年半雖然在小聯盟各層級之間三振累積的不少，但他也擊出了88支全壘打。而隨著他被提升到了大聯盟，開始有些人關注他並爭論他是否是大聯盟raw power最強的一個。即便是像Adam Dunn或Ryan Howard這類力量型打者都沒Michael Stanton令人印象深刻。以下就會來分析： Stanton, to date, has hit eight home runs with the Marlins over 169 trips to the plate. That's good for a rookie. Over 600 plate appearances, that's a 28-homer pace for a guy who hasn't yet turned 21. Beyond that, Stanton's hit 36 fly balls and eight of them have cleared the fence for a home run/fly ball rate of 22.%, seventh-best in baseball. Dunn's career rate? 22.2%. Howard's? A more impressive 30.2%. Prince Fielder checks in at 20.5% for his career, and 21.4% so far this season. The early evidence is that Stanton clearly belongs. Stanton到目前(統計的時候)為止在169個打席擊出了8支全壘打，這對一個菜鳥來說已經很棒了，而如果換算成600個打席的話將會是28支全壘打，更別提他還沒滿21歲！此外，Stanton擊出的36個飛球中就有8球飛出牆外，全壘打/飛球比為22%，這將可以排在聯盟第7。Adam Dunn的生涯平均是22.2%；而Ryan Howard則是令人印象深刻的30.2%；而 Prince Fielder生涯只有20.5%，但本季到目前有21.4%。以上的一些數據顯示Stanton 確實也是屬於怪力男行列之中的。 But when you look at Stanton's player page, you notice something: he's hit a number of infield pop-ups. Nine of them, out of 36 fly balls. The average rate of pop-ups per fly ball is something like 9-10%. Stanton's come in at 25%, which just so happens to be the highest rate in baseball. Clearly, it's a small sample size, but clearly, it's a high number. That's a lot of infield activity. 但當你回過頭來檢視一些其他數據時，你會注意到一件事：他也打了許多的內野高飛球。 Stanton在36個飛球中也打出了9個內野高飛球，但正常的內飛/飛球比應該只有9~10%，而Stanton卻是25%！如果就這麼持續到季末那將會是棒球史上最高。當然這只是小樣本，但很顯然地，這實在是太高，而且只會讓對手內野有點事情做，對進攻並無太大幫助。 Pop-ups, we can assume, are bad contact. Mis-swings. Pop-ups are, for all intents and purposes, automatic outs, no better than a strikeout. So I was curious - what happens if we remove pop-ups from the equation? What happens if we look at Stanton's home runs against the balls he's actually hit to the outfield? This may be a better measure of strength. When Stanton makes actual, solid fly ball contact, how often does he hit the ball out? 我們可以假設內飛是因為contact不好。而內飛大致上就等於自動出局(大致上啦)，並不比三振來得好。所以我很好奇：如果我們去除掉內飛的話對剛剛的數字會有什麼影響？而如果我們只看確實擊中球到外野和全壘打的比率會如何？這似乎是個更適合用來評量力量的方法。當Stanton確實擊中球心時，球飛出場外的頻率又會是多少？ Eight home runs, 36 fly balls, nine pop-ups. You can do the math yourself, but the answer ends up being 29.6%. 29.6% of Stanton's outfield fly balls so far this season have left the yard. And that rate bumps him all the way up the leaderboard to second-best in baseball, narrowly behind Travis Snider's 30%. 8支全壘打、36個飛球、9個內飛，自己算，你也可以成為數據大師(′‧ω‧‵)@m。而算出來的結果是29.6%！Stanton 29.6%的外野飛球都會越過大牆外！而這個數字會是聯盟第2，僅次於Travis Snider的30%。(我還以為會第一的(￣皿￣＃)，欺騙我！) Now, it's important to understand two things. For one, we're dealing with very small sample sizes here. Stanton has eight dingers. Snider has six. The numbers we get won't be super meaningful. For two, home runs per outfield fly ball is just a casual statistic, and not something of monumental importance. There are other measures of power, and there are other measures of productivity. It's more fun than it is anything else. 現在，了解兩件事是很重要的：第一是我們處理的僅是小樣本，而Stanton目前還只有8 支全壘打，Snider是6支，故這些數字還不是特別有意義。第二，全壘打/外飛比也只是比較粗略的數據，並不能說是具有重大意義的數據。當然還有其他測量力量的方法、也有其他計算全壘打效率的方法，只是這個會比較有趣而已。 The bigger point here remains, though - Mike Stanton is a powerful man, and when it comes to turning his fly balls into home runs, he's off to an incredible start as a 20 year old first-timer. Already, Stanton has posted some remarkable numbers, and as he ages, he's only going to get a better idea of Major League pitching, and he's only going to get physically stronger. He's just another terrific talent for a Marlins franchise that's always churning out some really impressive youth. 盡管如此，重點還是Mike Stanton是個充滿力量的小夥子，而他把一個個外野飛球轉換為全壘打，對這位才20歲的菜鳥外野手來說已經是有一個令人驚訝的起步了。他面對的可是大聯盟等級的投球，但他還是能在這個年紀就留下令人印象深刻的數據，況且他只會更加成長。馬大魚常常養出令人印象深刻年輕人，而他有一個極佳的天賦來成為另一位馬大魚的超級球星。 I completely agree with him; it is way too early to fully know what the Marlins have in Mike Stanton as a player. But the early returns are looking good. However, time will ultimately tell. 我完全同意Jeff Sullivan。當然現在還不能完全知道馬大魚將能從Mike Stanton身上得到什麼，但至少剛開始的數據看起來還不錯。無論如何，時間將會證明一切~~ (註)Jeff Sullivan原文 http://0rz.tw/qem1K (個人感想:現在就在看Stanton的數據會不會太早?不過至少這代表大家都很期待他的表現吧~不過他被K的比率真的很高就是了(￣ー￣；)) 其他短訊: 1.Coglan有可能在本季就回來，但確切歸期還未定。 (你還是百分之百好了再回來吧，進季後賽機會已經小於5.8%了Orz) 2.Cody Ross本季結束有可能也會獲得續約，甚至可能還不用薪資仲裁。 (繼阿哥、No-No之後又一位老班底!!) 3.馬大魚簽下之前待在小熊的老將(其實也才30歲而已XD)Chad Tracy，把B.Petersen下放3A清出空間。 (在3A被認為守備不錯的Hector Luna完全沒愛XD...有點悲慘，好歹人家在3A打了16 支全壘打，還比Morrison多欸，連試一下都不肯(#‵皿′)f〒﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌﹌叭叭叭) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.39.58.60 ※ 編輯: Iukak 來自: 114.39.58.60 (08/06 22:09)