[閒聊] John Sickels' Crystal Ball:Michael S …
Crystal Ball系列是John Sickels對菜鳥球季表現出色的新人所做的未來猜測。當然,
如果是一般人,例如我@@,來做猜測的話,鐵定只會被當成一般的豪洨文。但做這篇預
測的可是數據大師、業餘棒球及小聯盟權威John Sickels耶@@!所以大家至少姑且先看看
吧~
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/9/5/1670429/crystal-ball-michael-stanton
Crystal Ball: Michael Stanton
by John Sickels on Sep 5, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
Michael Stanton Crystal Ball:
Yr Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG Age
10 FLO 93 311 36 72 18 1 17 49 28 102 5 1 .232 20
11 FLO 151 546 78 149 31 3 29 86 48 159 11 4 .272 21
12 FLO 152 555 80 147 33 2 31 102 59 148 8 4 .265 22
13 FLO 152 583 75 129 29 3 29 79 53 165 9 6 .221 23
14 FLO 158 624 72 148 30 2 21 79 59 150 8 3 .237 24
15 FLO 157 593 74 155 28 1 29 90 63 125 5 1 .261 25
16 SF 143 549 75 129 31 3 26 89 59 119 7 2 .235 26
17 LAA 145 543 69 131 34 4 24 87 59 122 6 3 .241 27
18 LAA 155 563 95 170 36 5 31 105 61 108 5 5 .302 28
19 LAA 129 463 62 124 29 4 20 75 54 109 4 1 .268 29
20 LAA 142 452 59 111 25 2 25 80 55 103 4 2 .246 30
21 TEX 151 545 83 159 31 3 31 97 60 121 3 1 .292 31
22 LAD 139 471 52 129 29 1 19 74 46 96 2 4 .274 32
23 LAD 82 225 21 48 10 0 10 30 21 59 2 2 .213 33
24 LAD 64 209 25 51 11 1 9 33 24 57 0 0 .244 34
BOS 41 143 18 35 8 0 5 21 15 39 0 1 .245
25 LAA 48 172 23 35 9 0 8 31 24 50 0 0 .203 35
Total 2102 7547 997 1922 422 35 364 1207 729 1832 79 40 .255
Remember, the Crystal Ball is not a prediction or projection. It is intended
to spark discussion about the player in question, in this case young Florida
Marlins slugger Michael Stanton. How good will he be? Does this undersell him?
請記住,Crystal Ball系列並不是什麼預言或預測,這只是為了要激發各位來討論該名
球員。而在這篇文章討論的是馬林魚強打少年Michael Stanton,Stanton會有多棒呢?
這些數字是否低估他了呢?
Rate the Crystal Ball for Michael Stanton 評估一下水晶球對Stanton的預測吧!
Too Pessimistic; his career will last longer 太悲觀了;他的職業生涯會更長
Too Pessimistic; his peak will be better 太悲觀了;他的天花板還要更高
Just Right 剛剛好、差不多
Too Optimistic; his peak won't be that good 太樂觀了;他的天花板沒那麼高
Too Optimistic; his career won't last that long 太樂觀了;他的職業生涯會更短
(我要事先聲明,Sickels的評估一向都是比較悲觀的,雖然他去年猜測今年的Sandoval
成績和實際上的成績相去不遠,但就算是大師猜測錯誤的次數也不少,所以板友們是
怎麼看這份數字的呢?)
註:以下是到目前為止855外國鄉民的投票結果,要看請開燈:
2% 18 votes Too Pessimistic; his career will last longer
78% 670 votes Too Pessimistic; his peak will be better
12% 106 votes Just Right
3% 28 votes Too Optimistic; his peak won't be that good
3% 33 votes Too Optimistic; his career won't last that long
(個人感想:我也是覺得Stanton應該能做到更好,但如果他的選球一直都沒有進步的話,
很有可能最後就只變成下一個Wily Mo Pena @@,所以Stanton要好好加油啊!!)
--
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