Re: [外電] Can Bosh emerge as the Heat's leader?
原文
這篇我看過了，其實沒啥新東西 ^^
Miami's post-LeBron plan
BoshMike Ehrmann/Getty ImagesChris Bosh has a max contract that he
must now live up to in Miami.
For years, Erik Spoelstra has maintained that Chris Bosh is the
most important player to the Miami Heat's championship quest.
Well, we're about to find out how true that statement really is.
As the calculus goes, LeBron James might have been the best player
on the Heat roster, but their small-ball system hinged on the 6-
foot-11 Bosh's two-way versatility and array of skills. Perhaps
James had the best talent, but Bosh made it all happen.
Losing James is a crushing blow to the Heat. But we can't question
the Heat's resolve after their best player spurned them Friday to
rejoin Cleveland. The Heat put their money where their mouth is,
handing Bosh the five-year max of $118 million and keeping him in-
house until 2018-19, by which time he will be 35. They didn't only
give Bosh a truckload of money; they offered him the opportunity
to prove he can still be the dominant big man who averaged 20.3
points and 9.3 rebounds in seven seasons in Toronto.
Is Bosh worth the max? And are they smart to build around him?
Let's take a sneak peek into the Heat's post-LeBron era.
Bosh a max player?
From the surface, this looks like a hasty roll of the dice by the
Heat. It's pretty much unprecedented to see a center who averaged
a fairly pedestrian 16.2 points and 6.6 rebounds get offered the
max. Remember when people thought $60 million was too much for
Marcin Gortat? Well, he's the same age as Bosh, put up similar
numbers and got half as much money over the same number of years.
Centers of attention
2013-14 stats
Gortat Bosh
Age: 30 30
PPG: 13.2 16.2
RPG: 9.5 6.6
FG%: 54.2 51.6
PER: 17.6 19.0
WAR 10.4 9.2
WS: 8.1 8.0
$$$: $60M $118M
Of course, Gortat has never shown that he's capable of putting up
all-NBA numbers like Bosh. It seems like a lifetime ago that Bosh
averaged 24 points and 10.8 rebounds as the focal point of the
2009-10 Raptors squad that finished 40-42. Bosh paid little
attention to the defensive end of the floor and the numbers showed
his general apathy. With a Bosh and Andrea Bargnani front line
fumbling around defensively, the Raptors finished 29th in
defensive efficiency.
However, with titles on the line, Bosh has revolutionized his game
since his Toronto days. In a phone interview with ESPN.com on
Sunday, Bosh, who was overseas, said he believes that he's a
better player now than "CB4," the nickname he bore in Toronto.
"CB4 is never coming back," he said. "Right now, I think I'm a
much better player. It's funny, even all the way over here in
Africa, people are telling me: 'We need CB4 back.' I can't be
that. That's impossible. But I feel I'm a much better leader and a
much better player. I'm much more prepared for that role -- the
all-around role -- that they need me to fill."
The question becomes whether Bosh will have the capacity to be the
Heat's defensive anchor while shouldering the scoring load of a
20-point scorer. It's almost unheard of in today's NBA. Kevin
Love, Blake Griffin, LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Jefferson, Anthony
Davis and Dirk Nowitzki all averaged more than 20 points per game
last season, but none was close to getting named to the NBA All-
Defensive team. Maybe you can talk Davis in that conversation, but
he's not of this Earth, and his Pelicans finished 25th in
defensive efficiency.
Advanced metrics don't see Bosh anywhere close to being worth the
max. So far, teams have paid free agents a going rate of $1.5
million per WAR (that's wins above replacement, an all-in-one
metric derived from ESPN's real plus-minus framework). Bosh put up
8.0 WAR last season, which would indicate that he'd be in line for
an annual salary of about $13 million. Instead, he's getting
almost twice that, at $23.6 million annually.
But Bosh believes his game is going to expand next season with
extra touches, making those numbers moot.
"I'm looking forward to expanding my game all over the court," he
said. "I want to be able to do everything. I want to make plays, I
want to play in the midrange, short range, free throws, post-ups,
face-ups -- I want to do it all. It's exciting for me. I feel like
my game can really open up now and I'll be in a position to do
that now and help other guys out."
But is Bosh really ready to be the alpha dog without James? When
asked about that, he seems up to the task.
"I haven't had to be that guy," Bosh said. "I played with the best
player in the world, I didn't have to be the alpha. But now I get
to see if I have it in me and not many people are going to believe
I have what's necessary. But that's what makes it exciting."
Bosh in the big two
Starring without James isn't exactly uncharted territory for Bosh.
The good thing is that we can look up this stuff across four years
of evidence. From a scoring perspective, Bosh has responded well
in James' absence. In the nine games without James since 2010-11,
Bosh averaged 23.2 points per game, according to ESPN Stats & Info
research. Hello, Toronto Bosh.
But that's admittedly not a huge sample size. We can go deeper
than that by peering into lineup data in the NBA's StatsCube
database. What do we find? Looking purely at lineups where Bosh
played with Dwyane Wade but no James on the floor, Bosh averaged
17.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per 36 minutes as a member of the big
two. That's actually worse than his normal averages of 18.3 points
and 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. For those wondering, the James-
less big two lineups make up a sample size of 1,083 minutes, so
this isn't merely a snapshot.
Judging by these numbers, it appears that Bosh hasn't shown he can
take advantage of his time without James. But what's fascinating
is how Bosh is affected by his frontcourt mate. When James is off
the floor, Spoelstra has typically tried to make up for his
absence by throwing another traditional big out there next to
Bosh -- we're talking Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, Chris Andersen,
Erick Dampier (remember him?), etc. Just 19 percent of Bosh's
minutes without James have been with a stretch 4 (Shane Battier,
Rashard Lewis, Mike Miller).
Interestingly enough, Bosh has struggled to assert himself in the
big lineups. With another big taking up space in the paint, Bosh
has averaged just 16.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per 36 minutes with
46.8 percent shooting. Not great. But when Spoelstra goes
"small" with a shooter, Bosh morphs into Toronto Bosh: 20.8 points
and 9.1 rebounds per 36 minutes on 51.1 percent shooting. Perhaps
Toronto Bosh has been hiding all along.
But we left out one super important piece of the puzzle: the
scoreboard.
Toronto Bosh emerges from Big 2?
Heat's offensive and defensive ratings suffer in Big 2 lineups
without James when they go small, even if Bosh excels
individually.
Non-James lineups Mins ORtg DRtg +/- Bosh PTS/36 Bosh
Reb/36 Bosh FG%
Overall 1083 105.0 103.3 1.7 17.6 7.4 47.7%
Big 877 106.4 102.0 4.4 16.8 7.0 46.8%
Small 206 98.9 109.0 -10.1 20.8 9.1 51.1%
Even though Bosh has put up better individual numbers in small
lineups, the Heat have not fared well. In big two lineups without
James, the Heat have outscored opponents by 1.7 points every 100
possessions overall. That's encouraging for the James-less Heat.
But this is not: If we isolate the small big two lineups, the Heat
got blown out by 10.1 points per 100 possessions. Yikes. But when
the Heat go big? Miami outscored by 4.4 points every 100
possessions. See how that flips?
To recap: Bosh thrives in small lineups ... the Heat not so much.
This presents something of a dilemma for Spoelstra. The challenge
will be for him to design a system this summer that can maximize
both Bosh and the Heat at the same time. Bosh might put up 20-and-
10 numbers when he has more space to operate, but they might not
be able to get away with it unless another traditional big can
hold it down defensively. This is where Josh McRoberts can be
critical.
Re-tooling on the fly
Standing 6-10 with some bounce, McRoberts has the size of a
traditional big, but he can space the floor like a wing player.
Last season, his first playing as a stretch 4 for Charlotte,
McRoberts shot 36.1 percent from deep on 3.5 attempts per game.
The Heat are confident his efficiency will only rise in the Heat's
pace-and-space system. But we should exercise some caution here.
McRoberts has only one season of reliable 3-point shooting under
his belt.
From talking with those familiar with the Heat's thinking, team
president Pat Riley and Spoelstra were intrigued by
McRoberts' versatility that allows him to be a stretch 5 in spot
duty. Of course, they envisioned he'd be playing next to James,
but McRoberts becomes even more pivotal now as someone who can
guard power forwards and centers alike. Keep in mind, Charlotte
last season ranked sixth in defensive efficiency with a McRoberts-
Jefferson back line, and Bosh is a superior defensive player to
Jefferson. McRoberts isn't a defensive stopper, but he was smart
and athletic enough to play in the context of an elite Steve
Clifford defense in Charlotte.
McRoberts can offer the Heat the best of both worlds -- the 3-
point shooting of the wing and the size of a traditional big.
Throw in McRoberts' playmaking -- he registered the same assist
rate as Darren Collison (21.9 percent) and a higher one than Shaun
Livingston (20.1) -- and you can see why the Heat targeted
McRoberts in free agency. The risk is that last season was an
outlier and McRoberts regresses to the mean.
Without James, the Heat don't plan to tinker with their system too
much. The Heat's offense will still be predicated on quick passes,
elite shooting and actions off the ball. For the most part, the
supporting cast remains the same. Mario Chalmers and Andersen have
decided to stay in Miami rather than follow James to Cleveland.
Elsewhere, Wade, Haslem and James Jones figure to be right behind.
The Deng factor
Luol Deng will be a big part of the Heat's plan next season, but
don't count on him staying long term. The Heat signed him to a
two-year deal with a player option in the second year, which gives
Deng the chance to replenish his stock after a rough season in
between Chicago and Cleveland, and then hit the market again next
summer.
[+] EnlargeNets/Cavs
Noah K. Murray/USA TODAY SportsLuol Deng will have a chance to
prove himself in Miami after a season in transition.
But there's plenty of reason to like this move for the Heat. Like
McRoberts, the Heat valued Deng's versatility. At 6-8 and 220
pounds, Deng has the size of a larger small forward who can slide
over to a stretch 4 role. Early in free agency, the Heat saw Deng
as a long shot and didn't even schedule a free-agent meeting with
his camp until the last minute, when they decided to make a pit
stop in Chicago on their return from Vegas to Miami.
The Heat's pitch was simple: Deng could thrive in the Heat's
space-oriented system and watch his efficiency return to 2011-12
levels, when he shot 36.7 percent alongside a healthy Derrick
Rose. Deng's shooting rates have suffered lately, but the Heat
hope the gravity caused by Wade and Bosh will give Deng the
breathing room he didn't have in a broken Cleveland system last
season.
Word around the league is that Deng tried to hold out for more
money in the range of $12 to $13 million annually, but after a
game of chicken, Deng snagged the Heat's offer of $20 million over
two years. Deng has the potential to be the Heat's 3-and-D option
that they lacked last season, but a healthy dose of skepticism is
warranted after he shot 31 percent from deep the past two seasons.
The Heat will have some Deng insurance with Danny Granger on the
roster. Like Deng, Granger can slide to the stretch 4 and give the
Heat another layer of versatility.
Eyes on summer 2015 and 2016
Judging by the Deng deal, the Heat are following the Dallas
Mavericks' post-title model of building around their star big man
while maintaining year-to-year flexibility with short-term deals.
We haven't seen what Wade's contract will look like, but he
figures to make back the money that he left on the table when he
opted out of two years and $42 million left on his deal.
"We'll have to be a force on offense and we'll have to play
together," Bosh said. "Coach Spo will have to implement a system
that everybody can thrive in. We've got some talented guys who can
play multiple positions. That's what we'll thrive on and make
plays for each other and do some special things."
All things considered, the Heat should be right back in the
playoffs next season. With a projected starting lineup of
Chalmers, Wade, Deng, McRoberts and Bosh, the Heat can contend for
a top-four seed in a still-weak conference and have an outside
shot at an Eastern Conference finals bid. They still need to plug
some holes on the roster, especially at the 2, where there's no
one to back up Wade once he comes back. Taking a flier on a guy
like Brandon Rush, Alan Anderson or Francisco Garcia would make
sense in the event that Ray Allen hangs 'em up for good.
Even after losing James, a top-10 ranking in both offensive and
defensive efficiency isn't out of the question for the Heat, but
it'll take a lot of work to get there. Considering the Cavs' total
disarray in James' wake in 2010, this has to be viewed as a soft
landing for the Heat. Bosh believes the Heat can still contend for
a championship if things roll their way, and it'll be largely up
to him if they want to get there. After all, a maximum contract
means maximum responsibility.
※ 引述《blur13 (認識你自己)》之銘言：
: 來源
: http://ppt.cc/c-kk
: Can Bosh emerge as the Heat's leader? Is the supporting cast good enough?
: For years, Erik Spoelstra has maintained that Chris Bosh is the most
: important player to the Miami Heat's championship quest. Well, we're about to
: find out how true that statement really is.
: As the calculus goes, LeBron James might have been the best player on the
: Heat roster, but their small-ball system hinged on the 6-foot-11 Bosh's
: two-way versatility and array of skills. Perhaps James had the best talent,
: but Bosh made it all happen.
: Losing James is a crushing blow to the Heat. But we can't question the Heat's
: resolve after their best player spurned them Friday to rejoin Cleveland. The
: Heat put their money where their mouth is, handing Bosh the five-year max of
: $118 million and keeping him in-house until 2018-19, by which time he will be
: 35. They didn't only give Bosh a truckload of money; they offered him the
: opportunity to prove he can still be the dominant big man who averaged 20.3
: points and 9.3 rebounds in seven seasons in Toronto.
: Is Bosh worth the max? And are they smart to build around him? Let's take a
: sneak peek into the Heat's post-LeBron era.
: ----
: 多年以來 Spo 總是說Bosh是熱火競逐總冠軍中最重要的球員
: ESPN : LBJ或許是熱火陣中最佳的球員
: 但是熱火小球體系的中樞實際上是Bosh
: LBJ是最好的 但是因為Bosh多樣性 才能使這套體系完備
: 後面就開始分析Bosh值不值得頂薪 以他當核心建隊是否正確
: 探討後LBJ時代的熱火
: 下面要有ESPN Insider的才看得到 看看有沒人有 可以分享一下XD
--
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※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MiamiHeat/M.1405662213.A.389.html
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