[外絮] 鑑古知今？或許第25名剛好而已已回收
網站圖文版: http://tinyurl.com/ljkuwwa
Kobe Bryant's No. 25 #NBARank and history
Projecting what Kobe Bryant can contribute in 2013-14 is guesswork, but the
numbers aren't optimistic.
預測 Kobe 在 2013-14 球季成繳出什麼成績就像是在猜謎，不可能完全準確。
Our #NBArank project set off a firestorm this past week when Kobe Bryant was
unveiled as our panel’s choice at No. 25.
ESPN 團隊公布 Kobe 為第25名的事件在上週引起了軒然大波。
The panel was asked to rate each player from 0 to 10, with the following
guidelines: "Rate the overall level of play you PREDICT for each player for
the upcoming NBA season. This includes both the quality and the quantity of
his expected contributions, combined in one overall rating."
團隊成員被要求給予「0至10分」來評價每位球員，依據以下的說明
「預測每位球員下一季的整體表現，質與量都包含在考量之中，合計為一個整體分數」
In other words, how much can we expect this player to contribute during the
upcoming NBA season?
也就是說，這位球員未來一季能帶給我們多少期待？
With that in mind, many voters on the #NBArank panel projected that, coming
off surgery for a torn Achilles tendon, Bryant’s production in 2013-14 will
fall off dramatically. We don’t know when Bryant will return to the court
and, when he does, we have no idea how the injury will affect his
performance.
在這樣的心證下，團隊中許多評審都認為：
經過阿基里斯腱手術後，Kobe 的表現會一落千丈。
但其實我們不知道 Kobe 何時會回到球場上；我們也不知道傷勢會如何影響他的表現。
Those questions inspired the team at Princeton Sports Analysts to
investigate. PSA is a collective of Princeton undergrads who study advanced
analytics, stats and the economics of sports. To get a better sense of how
Bryant’s injury might affect his output this season, the gang at PSA turned
to a paper published in March titled, “Performance Outcomes After Repair of
Complete Achilles Tendon Ruptures in National Basketball Association Players.
”
這些好奇激起了 PSA (Princeton Sports Analysts) 的好奇心想一探究竟。
PSA 是一群研究進階運動分析、運動數據和運動經濟的大學生所組成。
為了深入了解 Kobe 的傷勢可能會如何影響他的表現，
他們參考了一篇三月發表的論文名為「NBA球員跟腱術後的表現」
The study looked at 18 players who suffered the injury, and the findings were
discouraging, as summarized by PSA:
這份研究觀察了18位受此傷之苦的球員，最後的結果是呈現悲觀的，
PSA 總結如下：
Of those 18 players, 7 were never able to return to NBA action, 3 returned
for just one season, and the remaining 8 would go on to play 2 or more
seasons. And of those players that returned, their performance suffered
drastically, especially in their first season. In their study of the 11
players that returned to the NBA, the players' PER (player efficiency
rating), decreased by an average of 4.57 points. In the second, it decreased
by 4.38 points.
在這18位球員中，7個沒有再回到 NBA 賽場上、3個只回來打了一季、
剩下8個可以再打個兩季以上。
而那些再回來的球員，表現都很慘，尤其是剛回來的第一季。
研究中那11位有再回來的球員，PER 平均跌 4.57分；
第二個球季的 PER 相較傷前則平均跌 4.38分。
... If you decreased his PER by the average reduction of 4.57 ... you’d find
that Kobe would’ve ranked 49th in the league last year, some 24 spots higher
than where ESPN has him in their NBA Rank. Kobe is an animal, but the stats
indicate that the anger towards his NBA Rank of 25 is far from justified.
如果你把 Kobe 傷前的 PER 減掉4.57再放回去年的排名，
你會得到第49名這個比 EPSN 預測再爛24個順位的名次。
Kobe 是條猛獸，但數據告訴我們這些對於排名第25的怒火其實毫無道理。
That’s a steep drop, and if we want a case study in the impact of an
Achilles injury, Elton Brand provides a helpful example. In 2005-06, Brand
ranked 6th in the league with a PER of 26.67. The following year, he dropped
to 23.16, which was still good for 14th overall. That following summer, Brand
suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon, missed all but eight games in 2007-08
and has never recorded a PER better than 18.5 since.
還真慘阿 ...
如果我們想要了解跟腱傷勢的影響， Elton Brand 會是一個有幫助的例子。
2005-06球季 Brand 的 PER 26.67在聯盟排名第6，
隔年掉到 23.16 不過總排名14還是不錯，
接下來的夏天， Brand 身受跟腱斷裂之苦，2007-08整季只打了八場比賽。
之後 PER 就一直低於18.5。
Bryant is a different caliber of ballplayer, the ultimate outlier -- in
conditioning, preparation and intensity. It’s reasonable to assume Kobe will
apply a unique level of focus into his rehabilitation so that, when the next
study of NBA Achilles injuries is released, he’ll reside at the far end of
the production axis on the scatterplot graph.
當然 Kobe 一直是一個獨特的球員；
在體能、賽前準備等等訓練強度方面，他是極端的離群值。
可以想見 Kobe 會超出一般水準地專注在復健，
而當下一份 NBA 跟腱傷勢研究出來的時候，他將會落在分布圖的另一測
The PSA team also notes that age, something that’s been cited as working
against the 35-year-old Bryant, wasn’t determined to be a factor in
recovery, so talk of the challenges an older player faces coming back from an
Achilles tear doesn’t conform to the data.
PSA 也指出 Kobe 35的年紀也是這個研究對象需要考慮的，
年紀在之前的研究中並沒有被當作復原狀況的關鍵因素，
所以當討論到老將從跟腱斷裂復原的挑戰，實際上並沒有歷史資料可以參考。
原文： http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/63426
心得：
朱雀橋邊野草花，烏衣巷口夕陽斜。
舊時王謝堂前燕，飛入尋常百姓家。
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◆ From: 111.243.102.22
※ 編輯: nypgand1 來自: 111.243.102.22 (10/21 16:42)
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