[外絮] 七六人隊會一路輸到本季結束嗎？已回收
原文網址 http://ppt.cc/I~bM
這篇是前幾天七六人輸給國王後，某專欄作家寫的文章，
翻譯不周之處請多海涵。
Will the Philadelphia 76ers lose the rest of their games?
七六人隊會一路輸到本季結束嗎？
By Tom Ziller @teamziller on Mar 13 2014, 10:32a
The Philadelphia 76ers haven't won since January 29. The losing streak is up to
18, just eight behind the NBA record of 26. The Sixers have 18 games left.
There have been murmurs for a couple of weeks now that the Sixers might not win
again this season, but it seemed like an impossible joke. After being drubbed
by the Jazz,Knicks and Kings over the past five days, nothing seems impossible.
What are the odds that the Sixers could end the season on a 36-game losing
streak?
從1月29日開始，七六人隊就再也沒有贏過一場比賽。其連敗場次推進至18場，離26連敗的
聯盟紀錄僅剩8場。七六人隊未來還剩下18場比賽，而幾個星期以來一直有流傳這樣的耳語
：七六人隊可能本季再也不會贏了。這聽起來像是無稽之談，然而自從七六人在過去五天被
爵士、尼克和國王擊敗後，似乎沒有什麼是不可能的。
看來七六人以36連敗結束本季也沒什麼好奇怪的。
The key question: how bad are they?
問題關鍵：七六人隊到底有多爛？
To do a math-based assessment of the chances for a 36-game losing streak, we
need to determine just how bad the Sixers really are at this point. Remember:
on February 20, Philly traded three of its few legitimate NBA players --
Spencer Hawes, Lavoy Allen andEvan Turner -- for basically nothing. So this
team is, right now, worse than the 15-49 record it boasts. The Sixers are 0-9
since the trade deadline and are being outscored by 17.6 points per 100
possessions.
要衡量36連敗的可能性，我們必須先確認目前的七六人隊到底有多糟糕。請記得在2月20日
時，七六人交易掉他們僅存的幾個NBA合格球員-- Spencer Hawes, Lavoy Allen andEvan
Turner，而且基本上只有換到空氣。因此目前這個隊伍其實比它所擁有的15勝49敗紀錄還要
糟糕。自交易截止日後，七六人隊的戰績為0勝9敗，並且在每100球中淨失17.6分。
If we use that number -- the -17.6 points per 100 possessions -- we can
determine that the team is a .039 club. Or, a team that would go 3-79 over a
full season. That's three times worse than the worst teams ever. The Sixers are
bad ..but that historically bad? Probably not. The worst team ever, those 7-59
Charlotte Bobcats from two years ago, had a .106 winning percentage. Are the
Sixers currently that bad? I think it's safe to say that yes, they are.
如果我們採用每100球中淨失17.6分這個數據，我們可以測定目前的七六人隊是支勝率只有
0.039(譯註：這勝率到底如何算出來的，有待板上高手分析。)，整季只會拿下3勝79敗的隊
伍，這比史上最糟的隊伍還要爛3倍。本季的七六人隊是很爛，但將會是史上最爛嗎？可能
不會是，兩年前拿下7勝59敗的夏洛特山貓隊是史上最爛的隊伍，其勝率僅0.106。那麼當前
的七六人是否和兩年前的山貓一樣爛？我想可以肯定的說：是的。
So let's figure it out both ways: if the Sixers are as bad as their
post-deadline performance indicates and if they are only as bad as the worst
team ever.
那麼讓我們從兩方面來解決這個問題。其一：七六人是否真的如同他們自交易截止日後的表
現所顯示得那麼糟糕？其二：他們是否只是和史上最爛的隊伍一樣爛呢？
As bad as the worst team ever
和史上最爛的隊伍一樣爛
If the Sixers are only as bad as the 2011-12 Bobcats, then Philly is expected
to win two more games out of the 18 remaining to finish 17-65. Assuming that
the Sixers are that good, there's a 13 percent probability of the team losing
all of its remaining games.
如果七六人只是和2011-2012的山貓一樣爛，那麼可以期待他們在未來18場比賽中贏得2場，
以17勝65敗的戰績結束本季。假設七六人真的有這麼好，他們在剩下賽事中全盤皆墨的機率
大概是13%。
But of course, that's the macro look. The Sixers won't be expected to win any
one of their games -- their highest win probability in any given game
remaining, assuming they are Bobcats Bad, is a home game against the Pistons on
March 29 or a home game against the Celtics on April 14. Philly has just a 26
percent probability of winning either of those games, though.
但當然，這只是從宏觀的角度來看。我們無法期待七六人贏得剩下的任何一場比賽。假設他
們和當年的山貓一樣爛，他們最可能贏得比賽的機會將是在3/29主場對上活塞，或是在4/14
主場對上塞爾提克，雖然其實七六人從這兩場比賽中至少取得一場勝利的機率只有26%。
What it boils down to is that while it is unlikely that the Sixers will win any
given night, it's likely they will beat the odds at least one of those nights,
making the 36-game streak look out of reach.
雖然七六人的樣子看起來沒辦法贏得任何一場比賽，但從剩下賽事至少贏得一場很有可能的
，要36連敗看起來似乎遙不可及。
Unless ...
除非……
They are really as bad as they have been lately
他們的能力真如他們最近所表現的那麼爛
If the Sixers are really right now a .039 team, I mean, my God. This actually
breaks Bill James' Log5 method for estimating single-game win probabilities in
some cases. It's too low. For example, plugging in the Sixers as a .039 team
gives them a -3.6 percent probability of beating the Pacers in Indiana. I mean,
that actually sounds right, but ... you know, you can't have a negative
probability of winning a game. The worst you can have is a 0 percent
probability of winning a game.
倘若目前七六人真的是支勝率只有0.039的隊伍，我是說，我的天啊！這將會打破Bill
James為了計算單一勝場機率所創造的Log5法則。那勝率實在太低啦！舉例來說，把勝率只
有0.039的七六人隊代入公式中，其在印地安那擊敗溜馬隊的機率將是-3.6%。我是說，這聽
起來好像沒錯，但你也知道，贏得一場比賽的勝率不可能是負的，贏得一場比賽最低的勝率
應該是零。
So I went through and set any games in which the .039 Sixers had a negative win
probability to zero, and ran Log5 for the rest of the season. The results: the
Sixers are expected to win one more game, with a 29 percent probability of
losing them all.
於是我將所有單一對戰中，七六人勝率是負的都調整為零，並且跑了Log5公式，結果如下：
七六人將贏得至少一場比賽，有29%的機率會全盤皆輸
The dream is alive.
有夢最美，希望相隨。
The futility record
無用的紀錄
What about the Cavs' record losing streak? If the Sixers are really a .039
team, there's a 47 percent probability that Philadelphia loses its next nine
games and claims a record 27-game losing streak. If the Sixers are a .106 team,
the probability of breaking the record is 15 percent. So cross those fingers,
Sixers fans who want their team to accomplish something historic this season.
關於騎士隊所創下的連敗紀錄，倘若七六人真的是支勝率僅0.039的隊伍，那麼七六人會有
47%的機率輸掉剩下九場比賽，締造27連敗的新紀錄。如果七六人是支勝率0.106的隊伍(如
同2011-2012的山貓)，打破紀錄的機率為15%。
所以那些希望球隊能達到某些紀錄的七六人球迷們，請拭目以待吧！
Meanwhile, the Bucks ...
與此同時，公鹿隊
I imagine that Sixers fans mostly care about whether Philly will finish below
the Bucks in the final standings, giving their squad the best shot at the No. 1
pick and a guaranteed top-four choice. Good news: Milwaukee has a rather cake
schedule to finish the season. Log5 projects Milwaukee to win five more games
this season.
我能想像目前七六人迷最關心的事是七六人能否取代公鹿當爐主，使該隊在競逐選秀狀元時
能擁有最高的機率以及前四順位保障權。好消息是：公鹿勝下的賽程頗甜，使用Log5公式預
估，公鹿將在剩下賽程中取得五場勝利。
If the Bucks win five and the Sixers win two, Philly would finish with the
worst record in the NBA at 17-65, one game worse than the 18-64 Bucks. (The
third-worst team in the league, the Magic, already have 19 wins.) Philadelphia
needs Milwaukee to win three more games than the Sixers do the rest of the way
to grab the worst record free and clear. To ensure it happens, the Sixers
probably need to win no more than two games out of the last 18.
如果公鹿接下來贏五場而七六人只贏兩場，七六人將以17勝65敗全聯盟墊底，比18勝64敗的
公鹿還要差一場(目前第三差的隊伍魔術隊已19勝)。七六人需要公鹿隊比他們多贏三場，才
能在爐主爭奪戰中毫無阻礙。為了確保這件事情發生，七六人在剩下18場比賽中勝場應盡量
低於兩場。
This is the saddest must-watch drama ever.
這是我看過最讓人難過的必看好戲。
--
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