PTT體育區 / NBA (美國籃球)

[情報] LBJ下家去哪裡的賭盤

看板NBA (美國籃球)作者 (愛上速霸路)時間2小時前 (2026/06/29 07:44), 2小時前編輯推噓79(81推 2噓 69→)
留言152則, 81人參與, 10分鐘前最新討論串1/1
https://tinyurl.com/44cchxpp Odds of LeBron returning to Cleveland more than double as free agency speculation swirls LBJ去騎士的機會大增，機率上漲2倍有餘 By Danny Gallagher Jun 28, 2026 Rumors that LeBron James could return to Cleveland have pushed traders to more than double the odds of a homecoming over the past week. The market for James' next team shows the price on Cleveland climbing from 10% on June 21 to as high as the high-20s by June 26, before settling at 22% as of June 28. Over the same stretch, the chance he stays in Los Angeles or retires fell from 70% to 50%. James going to Miami now carries a price of 16%, while Golden State sits at 14%. For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with Lebron James or the NBA. LeBron and LA The speculation has grown louder as talks between James and his current team have reportedly stalled. Yahoo Sports reported that Los Angeles is weighing its options now that the team has roughly $50 million in cap space to work with. ESPN’s Shams Charania said, “There was a check-in call made, to my understanding, early in free agency once teams were able to start negotiating with their own free agents after the end of the NBA Finals. Since then though there hasn’t been much communication, from my understanding, between [Los Angeles] and LeBron James’ side. And certainly not an offer yet.” LeBron returning to Cleveland So far, rumors seem to be driving the market’s prediction that LeBron’s free-agency status will take him back to Cleveland for his final chapter in pro-basketball. One of those rumors has attracted attention because of the person who shared it. Cleveland.com's Chris Pugh writes that local fitness trainer Joshua Teplitz posted on his X page, “Supposedly, LeBron IS coming back for a third and final stint.” It may sound innocuous and just a post from a local fan who hopes their most famous pro-basketball player returns to their hometown for one more run on the court. However, Teplitz accurately predicted that James would return to Cleveland in 2014. So the post is getting a lot of viral attention. Some sports media members aren’t so sure Cleveland will be able to make a deal to bring James back to his home state’s pro-basketball team. ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on The Pat McAfee Show that he thinks it's unlikely James will go back to Cleveland because of salary restrictions since they “can only offer LeBron $4 million bucks.” “One of the things I’ve learned about LeBron is you never count his money and never spend his money,” Windhorst added. “So, making assumptions that LeBron would take a lot less money, I see people making that assumption, and I just don’t think it’s smart.” Windhorst also noted if Cleveland wanted to make that happen, they would have to give up a star player to Los Angeles like Jarrett Allen. “I think if [Cleveland was] willing to do that, they could have LeBron,” Windhorst added. “Obviously, LeBron would have to want to with [Cleveland]. But your pathway to pay LeBron the money is to trade Jarrett Allen for him. The Lakers would kill for Jarrett Allen. Kill for him! They would do that deal in 17 tenths of a second.” Even with those hurdles in place, traders haven't backed off the reunion story. The takeaway: Kalshi markets now predict James staying with Los Angeles or retiring: 50% James going to Cleveland: 22% James going to Miami: 16% 上面的文章概要在講，因為湖人和LBJ的新合約談判沒結果，所以在賭盤反映，LBJ回 騎士的機率就越來越高, 6/21最低點是10%, 機率一度飆高到30% 溫胖也提到，如果騎士肯拿LBJ來簽換Jarrett Allen，湖人人求之不得。 但"大盤"走向，LBJ留在湖人或退休的機率，還是壓倒性最高的。 然後也有些許消息提到，熱火和勇士，對於LBJ也有興趣， 最後LBJ留在湖人/退休機率50%，去騎士22%，去熱火16% -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.14.181.252 (日本) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/NBA/M.1782690243.A.B71.html ※ 編輯: Subaru5566 (36.14.181.252 日本), 06/29/2026 07:44:58
推
06/29 07:45, 2小時前 , 1F
湖人如果拿lbj 換到好籤應該做夢也會笑
06/29 07:45, 1F
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06/29 07:47, 2小時前 , 2F
老詹如果配合簽換 代表錢錢還是重要
06/29 07:47, 2F
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06/29 07:48, 2小時前 , 3F
騎士湊的出薪資? 不是連中產都沒有
06/29 07:48, 3F
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06/29 07:49, 2小時前 , 4F
留湖人，拿剩下的薪資空間。應該不會少到哪去。
06/29 07:49, 4F
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06/29 07:50, 2小時前 , 5F
騎士一定是拿Allen換阿 騎士內部討論要賣Allen很久
06/29 07:50, 5F
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06/29 07:50, 2小時前 , 6F
了 他的短板到季後賽就會很明顯
06/29 07:50, 6F
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06/29 07:51, 2小時前 , 7F
報價渡輪 被跟就給老詹 但是這樣變備胎
06/29 07:51, 7F
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06/29 07:52, 2小時前 , 8F
老詹幹嘛要簽換給湖人爽一個阿倫
06/29 07:52, 8F
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06/29 07:55, 2小時前 , 9F
其他9隊的機率怎麼沒列出來？
06/29 07:55, 9F
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06/29 07:56, 2小時前 , 10F
#1gFyOB3P (NBAEasyChat) 樂透開™ #定存
06/29 07:56, 10F
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06/29 07:56, 2小時前 , 11F
Allen算蠻矮的 也沒投射能力
06/29 07:56, 11F
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06/29 07:56, 2小時前 , 12F
還有12％去那，不要跟我說勇士
06/29 07:56, 12F
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06/29 07:57, 2小時前 , 13F
老詹想拿頂薪就是要簽換才可能
06/29 07:57, 13F
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06/29 07:57, 2小時前 , 14F
有 第四名就勇士
06/29 07:57, 14F
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06/29 07:58, 2小時前 , 15F
回騎士跟兩個簽愛迪達的組隊？就是湖人，姆斯28年
06/29 07:58, 15F
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06/29 07:58, 2小時前 , 16F
打完洛杉磯奧運後奪金後退休，他的完美劇本，請叫
06/29 07:58, 16F
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06/29 07:58, 2小時前 , 17F
我姆斯觀察家
06/29 07:58, 17F
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06/29 07:59, 2小時前 , 18F
還簽換勒 騎士又不傻
06/29 07:59, 18F
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06/29 07:59, 2小時前 , 19F
騎士薪資爆了啊，如果簽換，一來舒緩騎士薪資壓力
06/29 07:59, 19F
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06/29 07:59, 2小時前 , 20F
，一來幫湖人拿點什麼，三來老詹薪水條好看
06/29 07:59, 20F
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06/29 08:00, 2小時前 , 21F
拜託去熱火
06/29 08:00, 21F
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06/29 08:00, 2小時前 , 22F
消息說 勇士自認為領跑姆斯爭奪戰 沒想到第四
06/29 08:00, 22F
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06/29 08:00, 2小時前 , 23F
頂薪+霸王 ?
06/29 08:00, 23F
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06/29 08:00, 2小時前 , 24F
不可能去勇士和熱火吧，就湖騎退休三選一
06/29 08:00, 24F
※ Subaru5566:轉錄至看板 Lakers 06/29 08:01
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06/29 08:01, 2小時前 , 25F
按計畫是1+1頂薪到2028奧運冠軍風光退休 湖迷吹捧
06/29 08:01, 25F
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06/29 08:02, 2小時前 , 26F
老詹絕對不是笨蛋，怎麼可能答應先簽後換
06/29 08:02, 26F
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06/29 08:02, 2小時前 , 27F
退休循迴 立雕像 計畫中啦
06/29 08:02, 27F
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06/29 08:04, 1小時前 , 28F
老詹不在意薪水條的話，其實他也沒缺錢了
06/29 08:04, 28F
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06/29 08:05, 1小時前 , 29F
沒有頂薪一定退休阿
06/29 08:05, 29F
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06/29 08:05, 1小時前 , 30F
不簽換=沒頂薪或退休
06/29 08:05, 30F
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06/29 08:06, 1小時前 , 31F
拿個一兩千萬，我老詹巨星能看嗎
06/29 08:06, 31F
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06/29 08:06, 1小時前 , 32F
開個六給他 讓他贏莊家一百塊
06/29 08:06, 32F
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06/29 08:06, 1小時前 , 33F
他就是在意薪水啊 只要底薪的話現在就是他挑球隊了
06/29 08:06, 33F
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06/29 08:07, 1小時前 , 34F
我猜他會退休啦
06/29 08:07, 34F
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06/29 08:07, 1小時前 , 35F
因為沒有一個球隊會給一個老人頂薪的
06/29 08:07, 35F
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06/29 08:07, 1小時前 , 36F
母獅現在是面子裡子銀子都要到手 誰敢放肆
06/29 08:07, 36F
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06/29 08:07, 1小時前 , 37F
拜託不要又出現一個傻隊幫湖人解決這問題好嗎
06/29 08:07, 37F
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06/29 08:08, 1小時前 , 38F
騎士這樣換也沒比較強
06/29 08:08, 38F
還有 74 則推文
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06/29 09:17, 46分鐘前 , 113F
他的高效用在自己的進攻上不是用在防守 那有用嗎
06/29 09:17, 113F
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06/29 09:19, 44分鐘前 , 114F
簽換那就是YY劇情啊
06/29 09:19, 114F
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06/29 09:19, 44分鐘前 , 115F
是LBJ想要第一志願湖人 第二志願騎士
06/29 09:19, 115F
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06/29 09:19, 44分鐘前 , 116F
但是湖人跟騎士不想要LBJ
06/29 09:19, 116F
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06/29 09:20, 43分鐘前 , 117F
直接不防守偷跑快攻能不高效嗎
06/29 09:20, 117F
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06/29 09:22, 41分鐘前 , 118F
其實我也覺得LBJ想去的人家沒報價他也不降薪
06/29 09:22, 118F
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06/29 09:23, 40分鐘前 , 119F
他胡扯的，騎士破二層禁止簽換
06/29 09:23, 119F
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06/29 09:23, 40分鐘前 , 120F
老羌想家了
06/29 09:23, 120F
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06/29 09:23, 40分鐘前 , 121F
42了說真的就算當打誰敢賭阿要認老 不如高光走人
06/29 09:23, 121F
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06/29 09:24, 39分鐘前 , 122F
留得好名聲
06/29 09:24, 122F
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06/29 09:25, 38分鐘前 , 123F
騎士總管不叫NICO
06/29 09:25, 123F
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06/29 09:25, 38分鐘前 , 124F
詹非常愛面子 不可能簽低於頂的約
06/29 09:25, 124F
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06/29 09:25, 38分鐘前 , 125F
1+1頂薪傻逼才賭 他如果一個不舒服直接掛傷號不打那
06/29 09:25, 125F
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06/29 09:25, 38分鐘前 , 126F
球隊欲哭無淚
06/29 09:25, 126F
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06/29 09:25, 38分鐘前 , 127F
大機率就是湖人1+1了
06/29 09:25, 127F
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06/29 09:26, 37分鐘前 , 128F
要聲量就是去勇士
06/29 09:26, 128F
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06/29 09:27, 36分鐘前 , 129F
高什麼效，正常球隊能忍受早攻嗎？
06/29 09:27, 129F
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06/29 09:28, 35分鐘前 , 130F
不要再湖人1+1了 湖人已經已讀不回他一整季
06/29 09:28, 130F
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06/29 09:29, 34分鐘前 , 131F
說實在 季後賽紀念T有印沒打得77 完全沒放牢詹
06/29 09:29, 131F
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06/29 09:29, 34分鐘前 , 132F
這信號應該頗爲明顯
06/29 09:29, 132F
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06/29 09:31, 32分鐘前 , 133F
能不能賭我們GOAT下一張約年薪多少。
06/29 09:31, 133F
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06/29 09:31, 32分鐘前 , 134F
刷數據界的GOAT誰簽誰賺
06/29 09:31, 134F
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06/29 09:33, 30分鐘前 , 135F
要1+1去年早簽了姆斯才不會撿PO 根本沒開約
06/29 09:33, 135F
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06/29 09:33, 30分鐘前 , 136F
LBJ不就這季沒談好巡演 不然早就拿著大把鈔票退休
06/29 09:33, 136F
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06/29 09:33, 30分鐘前 , 137F
他完全低估了他自己介入球隊經營的總管間負評
06/29 09:33, 137F
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06/29 09:33, 30分鐘前 , 138F
說最有希望的湖騎 直接薪資填滿看LBJ有沒有臉底薪
06/29 09:33, 138F
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06/29 09:36, 27分鐘前 , 139F
42歲姆斯換JA？騎士還沒撞到頭
06/29 09:36, 139F
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06/29 09:38, 25分鐘前 , 140F
你可以不簽 但一定要找你的總管好友簽
06/29 09:38, 140F
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06/29 09:39, 24分鐘前 , 141F
笑死 這也能開盤
06/29 09:39, 141F
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06/29 09:42, 21分鐘前 , 142F
不如再商業一點 把他去所有隊伍談約拍成紀錄片 最
06/29 09:42, 142F
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06/29 09:42, 21分鐘前 , 143F
後一集再來一個 The last decision
06/29 09:42, 143F
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06/29 09:43, 20分鐘前 , 144F
怎麼可能退休
06/29 09:43, 144F
推
06/29 09:48, 15分鐘前 , 145F
LBJ就遇到黑天鵝啊
06/29 09:48, 145F
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06/29 09:48, 15分鐘前 , 146F
77來得又急又快 換AD消息密不透風
06/29 09:48, 146F
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06/29 09:48, 15分鐘前 , 147F
他根本來不及操盤
06/29 09:48, 147F
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06/29 09:48, 15分鐘前 , 148F
我賭退休
06/29 09:48, 148F
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06/29 09:49, 14分鐘前 , 149F
湖人哪來的空間1+1啊
06/29 09:49, 149F
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06/29 09:51, 12分鐘前 , 150F
只想說nico做得好 不然不知道還要被這咖吸多久
06/29 09:51, 150F
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06/29 09:53, 10分鐘前 , 151F
LBJ高效？搞笑吧
06/29 09:53, 151F
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06/29 09:53, 10分鐘前 , 152F
騎士應該只願意出鬍子誰跟你換中鋒
06/29 09:53, 152F
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